Yes it does. Notre Dame will have NOTHING inside to combat Dolson and Stewart...NOTHING. All UCONN has to do is pound the ball inside and the game will be over.
But, as people keep pointing out, 2 players can only score so much. Consider the following hypothetical scenario:
Dolson spends a lot of time at the high post, but still does better than her season average: 17 Points
Stewart doesn't play as well as she did in last years tournament, but still hits some clutch jumpers to reach her season average: 19 Points
Moriah: 8 Points
Bria has an off shooting night: 12 Points
Kaleena starts forcing shots a little and ends up 3/9 from three and 2/5 from 2: 15 Points
Total: 71 Points
Loyd has a great night (remember that this is the kid who put up 21 in a half on Baylor): 25 Points
McBride plays like a senior in her last game, including hitting the go-ahead three: 22 Points
Allen: 5 Points
Braker: 5 Points
Reimer: 4 Points
Mabrey gets hot and hits 4 threes: 12 Points
Total: 73 Points
Is the above scenario really
that unlikely? Is there any one of those outcomes that seems like that much of a stretch? Before the Achonwa injury, I would have given UConn maybe 70% odds of winning. Now I'd give them 80-85% odds. I think it's a pretty big stretch to say that Notre Dame cannot win.
One thing that I will add though, is that this changes my rooting preferences in tonight's game. I had thought that Louisville had the better odds of winning against Notre Dame, but Thomas' clutch play against Tennessee in combination with one less shot blocker in the post have changed my mind.