ACC

[Carl Spackler]

FTInside,

Why did the Pac 12 get such a jaw dropping TV deal when their ratings suck?

....reaching for the popcorn and a beer.......

 

[TRest]

Ftinside-you are giving great analysis on why or why not certain bigger conferences are taking certain teams except for UConn, the board you are on. Do you have any info on where we stand in the big picture for the foreseeable future and what made you check out the boneyard?

I've enjoyed reading most of his posts, and will accept absent any evidence otherwise that he is who he claims to be, but honestly there are many realignment boards on the internets that go over this same territory constantly and are not UConn-centric. He does seem to not want to address the only question we really have: Is UConn in anyone's plans or not? If not, why not?

 

[Adios]

Is UConn in anyone's plans or not? If not, why not?

Over the past 100+ years, the shift in the domination of collegiate sports gradually went from smaller-sized, very influential private schools to mostly large, influential public schools.

There's no way UConn will be left out now. The development of collegiate sports is not really much different from the development of professional sports. Start out small, become big. The Hartford-New Haven market is the largest market in the US without a top-tier pro sports franchise. UConn fills that void. Unless the NY Football Giants come back to New Haven.

 

[FromTheInside]

Ftinside-you are giving great analysis on why or why not certain bigger conferences are taking certain teams except for UConn, the board you are on. Do you have any info on where we stand in the big picture for the foreseeable future and what made you check out the boneyard?

A week ago, I was doing a google search to see if anyone had leaked info about an FSU/"unofficial" Big XII meeting that had taken place the day before. A post by Fishy came up on page 1 or 2. I clicked on it and read the intro to this thread. It actually had nothing to do w/ FSU, but some of the info Fishy mentioned was incorrect. So, I decided to sign up for an account and reply. I really enjoy the realignment aspect of college sports, and love discussing the ins and outs of it.

As for UConn, the only reason I haven't commented on them is b/c I really don't know. I try to only comment on those topics where I have strong knowledge. I have never worked for the Big East or on any Big East valuations. I have worked on ESPN projects with regards to ACC valuations, and thus directly on UConn projects. But, my only knowledge base on UConn is from the POV of my valuation work. I've shared numerous times that it is my opinion that based on what details I do know about the ACC's expansion under the guiding hand of ESPN, that UConn was a top target and relationships with Notre Dame were a key component. Now, I personally was not privy to conversations in which that was stated verbatim, but I was indirectly, as part of the valuations focused on Notre Dame's potential draw as an ACC team playing a NE slate of teams, and such statements about ND were made to senior management.

I wish I could tell you I know what is going to happen with UConn, but I don't. If they were closer to the Big XII's footprint, they'd have an offer in hand, b/c they'd be a fantastic addition. I really think (opinion only), the ACC is UConn's only real hope. The Big Ten is unlikely b/c they are rigid about wanting large, research based, state universities with rabid fan bases. The best outcome for UConn would be if ND makes a decision to join a conference sooner rather than later. The ACC has no incentive to offer UConn now, b/c no one else is going to poach them (due to geography). Thus, they have time to sit and wait in ND. Is it a pipe dream on their part? Possibly. After all, the Big XII is sitting and waiting on ND as well, and they have ZERO ties to the Irish. As it stands now, I know of no plans for the ACC to offer UConn. Doesn't mean it's not going to happen; it's just beyond the range of my ever listening ear.

You guys have a really great program, and if the AD continues to invest in growing the football brand, while maintaining the basketball brand, UConn will land on its feet.

 

[FromTheInside]

I've enjoyed reading most of his posts, and will accept absent any evidence otherwise that he is who he claims to be, but honestly there are many realignment boards on the internets that go over this same territory constantly and are not UConn-centric. He does seem to not want to address the only question we really have: Is UConn in anyone's plans or not? If not, why not?

If I've missed any direct questions about UConn before Blue whale's post, then my apologies. I've tried to hit them all. Plus, I made use of the ignore button pretty quickly, so I don't see everything said or asked in the thread.

Hopefully my answer above is sufficient to answer the question about UConn's future.

 

[coachcap]

Funny you post this, because I figured this thread would be getting a lot of play on boards of teams hoping to get invited somewhere else.

Aren't WE hoping that UConn gets invited somewhere else? (Or did I miss the sarcasm button?)

 

[CougarRed]

Hey Cougar, looking forward to having you guys up to Connecticut to crack some pads.

Thanks Carl. I'm not sure how often we'll get to play each other, but I've admired the progress UConn has made in football over the years from afar.

 

[Carl Spackler]

That does it. IF, IF....UConn continues to invest? The ACC is our only real hope? Hope for what?

Valuations. This guy's valuations aren't worth the dollar bill that the USFL got.

Start showing some references to back up a single thing you've written.

Real easy to waive off a valid and thorough critique, when you've based your discussion on nothing that can be verified independantly.

This guy is full of . There, I said it. Good night.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Thanks Carl. I'm not sure how often we'll get to play each other, but I've admired the progress UConn has made in football over the years from afar.

As soon as Temple gets their 2012 schedule squared away, we'll get a much better idea of how the schedules will look from there.

Who knows, if things work out well, there just may be a championship game to be played in New York in 2013. Be nice to see you there.

No offense, but I'm hoping that SMU comes up here first. Got some real old business to take care of there.

Either way, welcome to the party.

 

[FromTheInside]

You go back and forth between characterizing the numbers as TV sets and total viewers in your post. Are your numbers Sets or Viewers?

Nielson usually reports numbers in terms of TV sets, which is why I asked what these numbers mean. Is there some kind of extrapolation from TV sets to viewers? And if we are talking about TV sets, and that SEC number is an average of all national games, then I am a bit skeptical, because ESPN generally runs two SEC games head to head on Saturday nights. If that 4.45MM is TV sets, and not viewers, and there are two games running head to head, then the total viewers of ESPN and ESPN 2 on a Saturday night are almost 9MM sets. Since the total population of TV sets per Nielson is just over 100MM, then roughly 9% of the total (TV Set) population of the United States is watching SEC football on ESPN and ESPN 2 on Saturday night. That would be impossible.

IF, on the other hand, your numbers represent total viewers, then why would ESPN bother to broadcast any of this? Those viewer numbers would translate into sub 0.5 ratings, which usually equals cancellation.

What I suspect is those numbers represent TV sets on the major broadcast networks. Since the SEC is broadcast without competition on CBS, 4.45MM sets seems almost reasonable. Most of the ABC games are regional, and ABC essentially decides how many sets there are for a particular game. But I am just a lay person, so WTF do I know? The funny thing is, you are a self-professed expert, and you don't know either.

The fact that you don't understand how Nielson reports numbers really brings your credibility into question. I actually like your insights, even when I don't agree with you, but your tendency to try to bully anyone who disagrees with you with "I am the expert and you are not" is weak, especially when there are some serious holes in your analysis, and you are struggling to interpret the basic data so we can even understand the basis for the debate.

As I have said before, either your argument stands on its own, or it doesn't. Nothing says "fake" quite like resorting to your "insider" status whenever someone challenges you. When I post about something I am an expert in, I don't have to say "I am an expert" every other paragraph. People just know.

I never referred to the the Nielsen data as "TV sets". I was on auto-pilot earlier and referred to them as ratings, rather than total viewers. Ratings are not TV sets, but rather, the percentage of households w/ a TV that are watch a specific program/game.

The extrapolation between TV sets to viewers changes from situation to situation. So, two programs with the same exact rating can actually have different "total viewers". That's b/c when Nielsen logs TV usage, it also records total viewers, based either on demographic information required when you sign up to allow Nielsen to watch your viewing habits, or by keying in the number of viewers when you turn on the TV (Nielsen has several different systems). Generally, for college sporting events, there are 1.35 - 1.55 viewers per TV set.

Also, despite the popularity of college football, it is a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of many other categories. The NFL absolutely obliterates college football in viewership. So, drawing in 4M+ viewers on average for a football game is pretty darn good, especially when you're talking about ALL games across ALL channels. The conference measures aren't solely Tier 1 games. They include Tier 2, which would include all of the ESPN brand, Fox Sports, etc. And, it also includes Tier 3, which are your PPV, Raycom, Sun Sports, Longhorn Network, etc.

 

[satam55]

Hey FromTheInside, fellow Texas fan here.

I need your knowledge/opinion on a couple if Big 12 expansion thoughts.

1. I've been saying since last fall, that BYU should be an absolute no-brainer add for the Big 12. What are your thoughts on BYU as an addition to the Big 12?

2. I've also been saying since last fall that long term, UH should've been invited to the Big 12 over TCU because long term UH makes more sense for the Big 12 than TCU for several reasons. Your Thoughts?

 

[noeynox]

Aren't WE hoping that UConn gets invited somewhere else? (Or did I miss the sarcasm button?)

Yes, and the thread is happening on our board. From the Inside had some very interesting insights in this thread though I'm still not buying that UConn isn't in the ACC due to failing to schedule a series with ND.

 

[Wildgopher]

I think all this info is very interesting.
That being said, I have always and will always hate the ACC. I hope we stay in the Big East and become THE dominant team.
I kind of like the new teams in the league and can't wait to go to as many of those away games as possible.
Nothing like a few days off visiting a city with a UConn game to look forward to.
I've been to a few of the ACC cities for football games and it just does't give me that "Oh wow, what a football atmosphere" feeling.

 

[Marty Jackson]

Insider,
We're new englanders. We don't trust anyone until everything check's out. And since most on this board are 'intellectually curious' regarding Uconn's future, they are going to parse everything presented and anyalze the living snot out of it.
Considering the amount of posts and the amount of effort you've caused consider it a compliment...

 

[CougarRed]

Hey FromTheInside, fellow Texas fan here.

I need your knowledge/opinion on a couple if Big 12 expansion thoughts.

1. I've been saying since last fall, that BYU should be an absolute no-brainer add for the Big 12. What are your thoughts on BYU as an addition to the Big 12?

2. I've also been saying since last fall that long term, UH should've been invited to the Big 12 over TCU because long term UH makes more sense for the Big 12 than TCU for several reasons. Your Thoughts?

TCU is about 5 years ahead of UH in building their program. TCU has averaged 10 wins a year for the last 12 seasons. Houston has averaged 9 wins a year for the last 6 seasons. Last year, TCU sold 20,000 season tickets and Houston sold 13,000. TCU is finishing their stadium project in 2012. Houston is starting theirs in 2012. With the Big East and a new stadium, Houston should hit 20,000 season tickets by ~2014.

That said, with the departure of the Aggies, the Big 12 lost nearly half its appeal in Houston. People here watch UT, A&M and Houston. Big 12 games not involving UT or A&M lag SEC games here. If the Big 12 wanted to preserve its dominance in the Houston market, they needed to add Houston. Now, the city of Houston will be a split market between the Big 12, SEC and Big East. Texas, Texas A&M and Houston games will be the big draws. Then SEC games not involving A&M. Then Big 12 games not involving Texas. Then Big East games not involving Houston.

 

[FromTheInside]

Yes, and the thread is happening on our board. From the Inside had some very interesting insights in this thread though I'm still not buying that UConn isn't in the ACC due to failing to schedule a series with ND.

Like I've said, it's my opinion that ND was the trump card that pushed Syracuse ahead of Connecticut. I wasn't in the ACC meetings. But, ESPN communicates specific goals to our team when we do valuations. They were specific about wanting to know ND's pull w/in each prospect's home DMA, including UConn. And, I know from talking to our senior management that ESPN expressly stated their #1 interest was ND. From a value standpoint, UConn is every bit as valuable to a TV contract as Syracuse. The differences are miniscule. Thus, given what I know to be true, it's my belief that ND's relationship with Syracuse & Pitt played a role in UConn not getting an invite. And, when the Syracuse series gets extended, you'll see how important NYC is to the Irish.

Was ND the #1 reason Uconn didn't get an invite? Based on what I kno.........I think it was the trump card. But, it doesn't necessarily mean it was. However, it most definitely played a part in the decision on whom to select. I have no problem w/ anyone saying other factors may have weighed more heavily in the ACC's decision, but it would be incorrect to suggest it wasn't part of the discussion.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Full of crap. Syracuse has been a known top priority for the ACC in expansion, well ahead of UConn, since 2002. It actually goes back well before that, but I'm not posting info. Never mind posting info to back up anything you write. Not important in this discussion...

So I'll go ahead and write this - with no reference.....

UConn didn't get the invite, because there were three dissents in the ACC, in the expansion meetings about UConn instead of two. There were two dissents for Syracuse, and the same two dissents for Pitt. Two dissents would have passed UConn and Syracuse, and made the ACC have to figure out a way to approach leadership at both UConn and Syracuse in such a way that we would willingly turn into Judas, becuase UConn was going nowhere but remaining loyal to the Big East. DeFillippo sold Pitt instead of UConn. I'm not telling who else.....nah nah...nahnah...nah.

The ACC moves were made to buttress their league against departures of southern programs to other conferences in football, and at the same time, more importantly - strengthen basketball. ACC leadership was moving on expansion, targeting the Big East yet again, to improve BASKETBALL. ACC basketball was falling third to the big east and big 10 in basketball revenue, and that wasn't acceptable to Tobacco Road.


Behind it all was ESPN, and their long time desire to get acquire Notre Dame as a full asset, just like they got Texas and BYU....but will never happen, as long as Notre Dame can park their non-football sports in the highest revenue generating non-football sport league in the country.



Let me change direction, and re-iterate somethign I've said a few times along the way in this thread, which is clearly a platform now...

and say I for one, major college football nutcase, am completely in favor of a 16 team playoff of all division 1-A conference champions seeded with a couple at larges, selected by committe, and running a 4 week playoff starting in December and ending with a true national championship game in January.

Conference shifting and alignment would actually mean something besides greed and dollars, rivalry would return to college football, and Notre Dame would join a conference, as would BYU and Army.

 

[sooner85]

FromTheInside:

Sooner/ B12 fan here. Interested on your take on the following questions (secondarily relevant to UConn fans, given possible impacts on ACC):

1. Whether 2012 valuations are doing any discounting of B12 due to perceived instability, or is that perception no longer a factor?

2. If the selection of the next B12 commissioner is linchpin in B12 expansion success, who moves the needle the most: ND AD Jack Swarbrick, Conf. USA Commissioner Britton Banowsky, NCCA guru Greg Shaheen or former NBC Sports Chairman Dick Ebersol?

3. Regarding tier III rights, why would an OU game that Fox did not in previous years select for tier II broadcast and which would then fall to PPV status, now become attractive enough to pay to put on FSW or FOK? In other words, how does Fox’s valuation of Oklahoma’s available games differ from that of Learfield Sports, so as to justify paying more for the new deal to put OU content on Fox regional networks?

4. Regarding tier III rights, how are valuations done for agreements to carry games on the internet, such as the K-State model? And do you see this type of model becoming profitable for schools with available tier III rights, in the foreseeable future?

5. Do you have any information whether the ABC/ESPN-B12 tier I contract extension requires the B12 schools to extend their assignment of media rights to the conference for the duration of the extension, or at least beyond the current six year period?

6. You stated in the other thread that the new B12 tier I contract has provisions for increasing the payout, if certain schools are added to the conference. You also speculated on who the B12 is or may be approaching. Are all of these schools included in the contract clause, and are there any more included that you did not mention? (Louisville and BYU are notably absent).

 

[Carl Spackler]

TCU is about 5 years ahead of UH in building their program. TCU has averaged 10 wins a year for the last 12 seasons. Houston has averaged 9 wins a year for the last 6 seasons. Last year, TCU sold 20,000 season tickets and Houston sold 13,000. TCU is finishing their stadium project in 2012. Houston is starting theirs in 2012. With the Big East and a new stadium, Houston should hit 20,000 season tickets by ~2014.

That said, with the departure of the Aggies, the Big 12 lost nearly half its appeal in Houston. People here watch UT, A&M and Houston. Big 12 games not involving UT or A&M lag SEC games here. If the Big 12 wanted to preserve its dominance in the Houston market, they needed to add Houston. Now, the city of Houston will be a split market between the Big 12, SEC and Big East. Texas, Texas A&M and Houston games will be the big draws. Then SEC games not involving A&M. Then Big 12 games not involving Texas. Then Big East games not involving Houston.

Is Houston open to scheduling/playing games in Reliant?

 

[uconnbaseball]

Like I've said, it's my opinion that ND was the trump card that pushed Syracuse ahead of Connecticut. I wasn't in the ACC meetings. But, ESPN communicates specific goals to our team when we do valuations. They were specific about wanting to know ND's pull w/in each prospect's home DMA, including UConn. And, I know from talking to our senior management that ESPN expressly stated their #1 interest was ND. From a value standpoint, UConn is every bit as valuable to a TV contract as Syracuse. The differences are miniscule. Thus, given what I know to be true, it's my belief that ND's relationship with Syracuse & Pitt played a role in UConn not getting an invite. And, when the Syracuse series gets extended, you'll see how important NYC is to the Irish.

Was ND the #1 reason Uconn didn't get an invite? Based on what I kno.........I think it was the trump card. But, it doesn't necessarily mean it was. However, it most definitely played a part in the decision on whom to select. I have no problem w/ anyone saying other factors may have weighed more heavily in the ACC's decision, but it would be incorrect to suggest it wasn't part of the discussion.

Thank you for your thoughts and not being afraid to say you don't know the exact answer. Many on here appreciate it.

 

[CTMike]

Carl, as much as I love your passion and intensity, try not to let it cloud rational thought... even if it may contradict your long held beliefs. Nobody thinks there was just one factor in the ACC's decision. There were a multitude. Also, these criteria are established at various points in time. Things that made sense 10 years ago may or may not make sense now. One could definitely say that UConn would have strengthened ACC basketball, and even make a good argument about UConn strengthening football, way more than the two teams they selected. So there must have been other factors in the decision, yes? Flipper is one for sure, but there must be others as well.

 

[CougarRed]

Is Houston open to scheduling/playing games in Reliant?

Hi Carl

We've played several games at Reliant in the past, and play our next 2 games against Rice at Reliant. Further, should we decided to tear down Robertson Stadium and rebuild on the same site (which is likely), we will play at Reliant for a year while the new stadium is under construction.

But after the new stadium gets built (opening in 2014), I don't see us playing in Reliant except in the rarest of circumstances.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Carl, as much as I love your passion and intensity, try not to let it cloud rational thought... even if it may contradict your long held beliefs. Nobody thinks there was just one factor in the ACC's decision. There were a multitude. Also, these criteria are established at various points in time. Things that made sense 10 years ago may or may not make sense now. One could definitely say that UConn would have strengthened ACC basketball, and even make a good argument about UConn strengthening football, way more than the two teams they selected. So there must have been other factors in the decision, yes? Flipper is one for sure, but there must be others as well.

Seriously? Go back and re-read what I wrote, and try not to just pass over it because I've written so much in the past. It's all there. No references. Penn State was rejected from the Big East on a 5-3 vote when 6-2 would have gotten them in. You think that it wasn't any different for UConn in the ACC? THe dissent numbers were exactly the same in committee. 3 is no, 2 is yes.

It would have been harder for the ACC to get UConn through, than the Big EAst to get Penn State, because PSU wanted in to the league, UConn didn't want in to this league - at the time.

Whatever..... Take it for what you will on an internet message board.

Cougar - if you're reading....love to continue the discussion, I am happy to have you guys in the Big East.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Hi Carl

We've played several games at Reliant in the past, and play our next 2 games against Rice at Reliant. Further, should we decided to tear down Robertson Stadium and rebuild on the same site (which is likely), we will play at Reliant for a year while the new stadium is under construction.

But after the new stadium gets built (opening in 2014), I don't see us playing in Reliant except in the rarest of circumstances.

Cool. That must be fun. What is the new stadium projected capacity? It sounds like Houston is on a similar path that UConn was on. Our stadium seats 40k capacity but was built with blueprints to seat 50k, and the footings and foundation in place such that when expansion is approved, it's all above ground, quick consturction.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Like I've said, it's my opinion that ND was the trump card that pushed Syracuse ahead of Connecticut. I wasn't in the ACC meetings. But, ESPN communicates specific goals to our team when we do valuations. They were specific about wanting to know ND's pull w/in each prospect's home DMA, including UConn. And, I know from talking to our senior management that ESPN expressly stated their #1 interest was ND. From a value standpoint, UConn is every bit as valuable to a TV contract as Syracuse. The differences are miniscule. Thus, given what I know to be true, it's my belief that ND's relationship with Syracuse & Pitt played a role in UConn not getting an invite. And, when the Syracuse series gets extended, you'll see how important NYC is to the Irish.

Was ND the #1 reason Uconn didn't get an invite? Based on what I kno.........I think it was the trump card. But, it doesn't necessarily mean it was. However, it most definitely played a part in the decision on whom to select. I have no problem w/ anyone saying other factors may have weighed more heavily in the ACC's decision, but it would be incorrect to suggest it wasn't part of the discussion.

So far I've liked much of what you've posted, by this one doesn't pass the eye test with me. Every indication I have seen is that the single school in the Big East that Notre Dame most wants to remain in a conference with is UConn. Mike Brey has come out and said as much. Notre Dame is also extremely proud of the women's hoops program, which only came to prominence because of UConn. If the ACC wanted to lure ND, adding UConn should have been their first move.

I suspect that this works in much the opposite way. Notre Dame wants to stay independent, and yet wants to be in an Olympic sports league with UConn. They don't care as much about Syracuse and Pitt for Oylmpic sports, and can play either in football regardless. So they perhaps suggest those schools to ESPN, so that they get to stay in a Big East that has UConn. BC, the only other Catholic FBS program, would almost certainly be far more important to bringing ND to the ACC than Syracuse.