I think we could be in the AAC for quite sometime.
Here are the facts:
-ACC is locked into its contract and GORs. There is little incentive for the ACC or ESPN to open this contract again.
-ACC has 14 football playing members. They won't go to an odd number and they won't go to 16 without ND.
-ND has an ideal set up in the ACC, they aren't joining as a football member anytime soon.
B1G
-Just expanded with two no heritage football programs, but ones with big state populations and recruiting grounds.
-B1G has contract negotiations coming up, so maybe even if there is a desire for more content, there really isn't a suitable team as 16 that isn't in a GOR.
-More so than anything, were a small state without much football cache in terms of our program/ recruiting.
-Delany likely waits to see how Rutgers does before doubling down in the north east.
Big12
-Likeliest conference to expand, but UConn is geographically isolated and doesn't offer recruiting grounds even if our brand overall is the best available.
-If Big12 wants a CCG and the networks pony up for two teams, it would seem Cinci is a given and UCF coming off a BCS win is likely two. We'd need a 4 team expansion.
I think for now the prospects remain bleak..If the AAC remains competitive, I think in 6 years our contract could be upgraded to at least cut the disparity from the P5 to us from astronomical to at least just huge.
I believe with an upgraded deal UConn can survive one more contract cycle ( say 10-15 years) as a nationally relevant hoops program and a solid mid major football program.
After that? The jury is really out. I think you can use TCU add an example of being in a power league, falling out, then coming back, but that is certainly the exception to the rule.
I do think at some point and it could be decades away that conferences will once again become more regionalized, but until then, it may be the AAC indefinitely... which I keep trying to accept and as bad as it is, I know eventually I'd just deal with it if it weren't for Tulane and Tulsa. I'll never, ever get over that. It's still mind numbing to me.