ACC rumor from the Fat White Guy

[CL82]

I think we could be in the AAC for quite sometime.

Here are the facts:
-ACC is locked into its contract and GORs. There is little incentive for the ACC or ESPN to open this contract again.
-ACC has 14 football playing members. They won't go to an odd number and they won't go to 16 without ND.
-ND has an ideal set up in the ACC, they aren't joining as a football member anytime soon.

B1G
-Just expanded with two no heritage football programs, but ones with big state populations and recruiting grounds.
-B1G has contract negotiations coming up, so maybe even if there is a desire for more content, there really isn't a suitable team as 16 that isn't in a GOR.
-More so than anything, were a small state without much football cache in terms of our program/ recruiting.
-Delany likely waits to see how Rutgers does before doubling down in the north east.

Big12
-Likeliest conference to expand, but UConn is geographically isolated and doesn't offer recruiting grounds even if our brand overall is the best available.
-If Big12 wants a CCG and the networks pony up for two teams, it would seem Cinci is a given and UCF coming off a BCS win is likely two. We'd need a 4 team expansion.

I think for now the prospects remain bleak..If the AAC remains competitive, I think in 6 years our contract could be upgraded to at least cut the disparity from the P5 to us from astronomical to at least just huge.

I believe with an upgraded deal UConn can survive one more contract cycle ( say 10-15 years) as a nationally relevant hoops program and a solid mid major football program.

After that? The jury is really out. I think you can use TCU add an example of being in a power league, falling out, then coming back, but that is certainly the exception to the rule.

I do think at some point and it could be decades away that conferences will once again become more regionalized, but until then, it may be the AAC indefinitely... which I keep trying to accept and as bad as it is, I know eventually I'd just deal with it if it weren't for Tulane and Tulsa. I'll never, ever get over that. It's still mind numbing to me.

As much as I don't love this analysis, I think it fairly reasonable statement of our current situation. The B1G TV renewal give us our narrow window of hope but finding # 16 is the question. Kansas, maybe?

 

[ConnHuskBask]

As much as I don't love this analysis, I think it fairly reasonable statement of our current situation. The B1G TV renewal give us our narrow window of hope but finding # 16 is the question. Kansas, maybe?

I was thinking about the current GOR with the Big12 and it's implications.

The B1G has shown it will expand for blue blood football programs (Nebraska) or state population/ recruiting (Rutgers/MD). Texas/Oklahoma going to the B1G fit the criteria (Texas both, OU football royalty).

With these additions, the B1G significantly upgrades football and gets a recruiting line into Texas for the plains schools. They'd be set at 16 and cement their membership.

I think that situation is certainly plausible. So you're looking at a Big12 with: Ok State, Iowa State, Baylor, KU, KSU, Texas Tech, TCU, WVU (8 teams).

I think you would see them add: Cinci, UCF and to get to 12 for a title game, likely 2 of UConn, USF, BYU or Houston.

To be honest, as far fetched as that may sound, I think it's still more likely than us going to the B1G antytimr soon.

 

[specialisthusky]

I was thinking about the current GOR with the Big12 and it's implications.

The B1G has shown it will expand for blue blood football programs (Nebraska) or state population/ recruiting (Rutgers/MD). Texas/Oklahoma going to the B1G fit the criteria (Texas both, OU football royalty).

With these additions, the B1G significantly upgrades football and gets a recruiting line into Texas for the plains schools. They'd be set at 16 and cement their membership.

I think that situation is certainly plausible. So you're looking at a Big12 with: Ok State, Iowa State, Baylor, KU, KSU, Texas Tech, TCU, WVU (8 teams).

I think you would see them add: Cinci, UCF and to get to 12 for a title game, likely 2 of UConn, USF, BYU or Houston.

To be honest, as far fetched as that may sound, I think it's still more likely than us going to the B1G antytimr soon.

The only reasonably realistic possibility I look for with the B1G is the fact we have seen every conference expand for conference renegotiation.

If this holds true for 2017, we have better hope the Missouri administration still has a longing for the B1G.

 

[CTGoonie]

We also need to wait and see what happens with the Maryland/ACC lawsuit. If MD gets out for far less than $50m than Delany could take on another ACC school like Virginia.

 

[HawkHusky]

We also need to wait and see what happens with the Maryland/ACC lawsuit. If MD gets out for far less than $50m than Delany could take on another ACC school like Virginia.

UVA isn't going anywhere by itself unless the ACC implodes.

I think Big 12 movement is what has to happen next. Would love to see someone challenge the GOR.

 

[jostar1]

Christopher Licata ‏@Licatacs 7 Jan
Hey @B1GConn whatever happened to that big Cincy-UConn to the ACC announcement?

Go B1G or Go Home ‏@B1GConn 7 Jan
@Licatacs I think I technically have 4 more days before i'm wrong right?

Christopher Licata ‏@Licatacs 7 Jan
@B1GConn do you? Don't remember there being timeline from the initial tweets.

Go B1G or Go Home ‏@B1GConn 7 Jan
@Licatacs I said there were rumblings of a possible move next week back then. stand by that. nothing firm but its been talked about

 

[Fishy]

We also need to wait and see what happens with the Maryland/ACC lawsuit. If MD gets out for far less than $50m than Delany could take on another ACC school like Virginia.

The lawsuit is meaningless.

The Big Ten isn't getting another ACC team.

It's not even that there's a grant of rights, it's that the schools willingly signed the grant of rights.

 

[CL82]

Well it could be, depending on what it says. For example, say the $50M is found to be unenforceable because it lacked any business purpose, other than as punishment for leaving the conference, then would that same reasoning apply to grant of rights? GORs are touted as sacrosanct, but they are untested. I agree with your point that the ACC teams chose to stay in conference. We'd need a major shift in the college landscape to change that in the near term.

 

[UPitt]

Well it could be, depending on what it says. For example, say the $50M is found to be unenforceable because it lacked any business purpose, other than as punishment for leaving the conference, then would that same reasoning apply to grant of rights? GORs are touted as sacrosanct, but they are untested. I agree with your point that the ACC teams chose to stay in conference. We'd need a major shift in the college landscape to change that in the near term.

I think you slightly missed the point Fishy was making. If any schools were serious about leaving the ACC, they would not have been willing to sign the GOR. The GOR may or may not be enforcable, but the last major milestone in CR to take place was the ACC signing a GOR. That implies that the ACC schools are comfortable with the current landscape and therefore are less likely to make the next move, unless something else causes a shift to the landscape.

The Rugters/Maryland and Louisville shift could be a trigger, although unlikely. ND joining a conference would be a definite trigger, but very unlikely in the near future. Texas could blow up the Big12, but I think Texas is happy for now. The B1G contract could be a trigger, but I honestly feel the B1G will not expand unless it can lure teams from the ACC, SEC, or B1g12. If Uconn had a partner, B1G expansion would be much more likely.

I think the college football playoff has the most potential to shift the CR landscape again. At least one P5 league will be left out each year under the current format. The B1g12 does not have a CCG. ND and BYU are not in a conference. What if 2 or 3 SEC schools make the playoff? What if UCF (who will be ranked preseason) runs the table in 2014 against PSU, Mizzou, and BYU and the AAC? There will be lots of grumbling in the next few years.

 

[Exit 4]

I think you slightly missed the point Fishy was making. If any schools were serious about leaving the ACC, they would not have been willing to sign the GOR. The GOR may or may not be enforcable, but the last major milestone in CR to take place was the ACC signing a GOR. That implies that the ACC schools are comfortable with the current landscape and therefore are less likely to make the next move, unless something else causes a shift to the landscape.

The Rugters/Maryland and Louisville shift could be a trigger, although unlikely. ND joining a conference would be a definite trigger, but very unlikely in the near future. Texas could blow up the Big12, but I think Texas is happy for now. The B1G contract could be a trigger, but I honestly feel the B1G will not expand unless it can lure teams from the ACC, SEC, or B1g12. If Uconn had a partner, B1G expansion would be much more likely.

I think the college football playoff has the most potential to shift the CR landscape again. At least one P5 league will be left out each year under the current format. The B1g12 does not have a CCG. ND and BYU are not in a conference. What if 2 or 3 SEC schools make the playoff? What if UCF (who will be ranked preseason) runs the table in 2014 against PSU, Mizzou, and BYU and the AAC? There will be lots of grumbling in the next few years.

Unfortunately, I have to agree with your assessment. I think CRA is over for the short term unless the B12 or ND decide to do something to stir the pot. Otherwise, until conferences start renegotiating TV contracts where they may receive interesting feedback (like adding UConn would be accretive to your conf tv package) encouraging expansion or we see P5 frustration over the football playoffs, its going to remain idle. For the next 8 to 10 years UConn will have to play spoiler in all sports as a Gonzaga/Marshall/Boise St/BYU type school. Continued solid fan support will be key. Players and tv people want to see full venues.

 

[WestHartHusk]

Has the GOR actually been signed? I thought it was agreed in principle but not yet executed, am I wrong? Has anyone seen a copy through a FOIA?

 

[UPitt]

Has the GOR actually been signed? I thought it was agreed in principle but not yet executed, am I wrong? Has anyone seen a copy through a FOIA?

Not sure if it has been "officially signed", but "agreement in principle" is strong words from a legal argument. Although not a binding contract and not fully enforcable, an "agreement in principle" usually has "good faith" and other similar clauses that make it very tough to back out of an agreement. For sake of the argument we are discussing (ACC GOR), "officially signed" or "agreement in principle" are very similar. The last major CR milestone was the ACC GOR, and if an ACC school was planning on leaving the league (or unhappy with the conference landscape as-is), they would not have supported the GOR with an "agreement in principle" becuase of the complications that would arise.

 

[UConn Dan]

Not sure if it has been "officially signed", but "agreement in principle" is strong words from a legal argument. Although not a binding contract and not fully enforcable, an "agreement in principle" usually has "good faith" and other similar clauses that make it very tough to back out of an agreement. For sake of the argument we are discussing (ACC GOR), "officially signed" or "agreement in principle" are very similar. The last major CR milestone was the ACC GOR, and if an ACC school was planning on leaving the league (or unhappy with the conference landscape as-is), they would not have supported the GOR with an "agreement in principle" becuase of the complications that would arise.

The "agreement in principal" may have conditions such as launching an ACC Network. We won't know until this agreement (if ever) is released. It's an uphill battle for an ACC Network to get off the ground during this contract period and it's been speculated that the presidents signed the GOR (or agreed in principal rather) on the basis that a network would be launched.

 

[UPitt]

Unfortunately, I have to agree with your assessment. I think CRA is over for the short term unless the B12 or ND decide to do something to stir the pot. Otherwise, until conferences start renegotiating TV contracts where they may receive interesting feedback (like adding UConn would be accretive to your conf tv package) encouraging expansion or we see P5 frustration over the football playoffs, its going to remain idle. For the next 8 to 10 years UConn will have to play spoiler in all sports as a Gonzaga/Marshall/Boise St/BYU type school. Continued solid fan support will be key. Players and tv people want to see full venues.

I wouldn't sell Uconn short and only consider Uconn to be a "spoiler". For football, sure Uconn will only be a spoiler. But how is that different from today or last year, or 5 years ago. Uconn, along with 100 other FBS teams, are nothing more than spoilers when it comes to vying for a national championship or participating in the BCS/playoff. There have been 16 BCS NC games and only 15 different schools have participated. FSU (4), Okla (4), Bama (3), LSU (3), OSU (3), Miami (2), Texas (2), Florida (2), USC (2), Aub (2), Tenn, VT, Nebraska, Oregon, and ND. If anything, a school like Uconn (or UCF in 2014) could run the table and sneak into a playoff spot.

As for basketball, Uconn will not be considered a spoiler. Uconn will continue to make an impact on the national stage and in the NCAA tourny.

 

[baggerbob]

Notre Dame playing USC, Stanford, Michigan St, and 5 ACC teams each year, is going to pile up more losses then they are used to. Their undefeated year they should have lost to a bad Pitt team, and last year lost to an average Pitt team. They could very easily have 3 or 4 years in a row with at least 5 losses. They are going to find the only way to the championship, will be to win a conference championship game.

 

[Exit 4]

I wouldn't sell Uconn short and only consider Uconn to be a "spoiler". For football, sure Uconn will only be a spoiler. But how is that different from today or last year, or 5 years ago. Uconn, along with 100 other FBS teams, are nothing more than spoilers when it comes to vying for a national championship or participating in the BCS/playoff. There have been 16 BCS NC games and only 15 different schools have participated. FSU (4), Okla (4), Bama (3), LSU (3), OSU (3), Miami (2), Texas (2), Florida (2), USC (2), Aub (2), Tenn, VT, Nebraska, Oregon, and ND. If anything, a school like Uconn (or UCF in 2014) could run the table and sneak into a playoff spot.

As for basketball, Uconn will not be considered a spoiler. Uconn will continue to make an impact on the national stage and in the NCAA tourny.

Don't disagree. I meant 'spoiler' in the sense that the P5 will view any wins by UConn as a member of the AAC as a spoiler to their preeminence.

 

[adbern7]

Unfortunately, I have to agree with your assessment. I think CRA is over for the short term unless the B12 or ND decide to do something to stir the pot. Otherwise, until conferences start renegotiating TV contracts where they may receive interesting feedback (like adding UConn would be accretive to your conf tv package) encouraging expansion or we see P5 frustration over the football playoffs, its going to remain idle. For the next 8 to 10 years UConn will have to play spoiler in all sports as a Gonzaga/Marshall/Boise St/BYU type school. Continued solid fan support will be key. Players and tv people want to see full venues.

This year's bowl results, by generally giving every conference something to crow about (including the AAC), probably is another headwind toward any more imminent CR. If the SEC had run the table again and blown out everyone, there would be more fear-driven motivation to keep up with the Jones'. Instead, most conferences are saying 'hey we can work with the current setup'. Agreed that upcoming playoff, along with 14-team football conferences being a headache to deal with (click on any thread titled "divisions" on any ACC/B1G/SEC message board and you'll think it's armageddon) will be the future catalyst for more movement. Some moves will be obvious - say like Utah to the P12 was, and others will be surprises - like Rutgers to the B1G.

 

[pj]

The big thing driving further realignment will be the Div IV P5 split. If they really are splitting in a real sense, they need to give all major TV markets a reason to follow college football and they need to forestall antitrust lawsuits, especially from politically powerful entities able to sue in a venue with friendly jurors. They need to resolve the role of independents like ND, BYU, Navy, Army.

If the resolution is to buy off objectors with membership/participation, then UConn is the leading potential beneficiary of any further moves. The northeast is grossly underrepresented in college football. Among P5 conference members, only Rutgers is located within 215 miles of NYC. I don't think that's a hole either the networks or conferences will want.

 

[billybud]

Good grief! You say that the NE is a football black hole. I agree.

"The highest rated local market for ESPN's college football coverage throughout the season should come as no surprise. That's Birmingham, Ala., which averaged a 9.2 rating. That number is nearly twice as high as second-place Greenville, SC, which averaged a 4.9 rating. The rest of the top 10 is pretty much what you'd expect as most are in the southeastern part of the country. Knoxville, Tenn. was third and followed by New Orleans, La., Nashville, Tenn. Memphis, Tenn., Columbus, Ohio, Jacksonville, Fla., Louisville, Ky. and Atlanta, Ga."


Birmingham, the highest-rated metered market for ESPN's regular-season telecasts for 13 straight years, was the highest-rated market for ESPN's 29 bowl telecasts, averaging an 11.9 rating.

All 25 of the top markets averaged a 4.3 rating or better with Columbus, New Orleans and Greenville posting a 7.0 or higher rating.


The top 25 markets for ESPN's bowl and regular-season telecasts for the 2013-14 season:

Bowl Rank Market Rating Season Rank Market Rating
No. 1 Birmingham 11.9..... 1 Birmingham 9.2
No. 2 Columbus 7.4..... 2 Greenville 4.9
No. 3 New Orleans 7.1..... 3 Knoxville 4.4
No. 4 Greenville 7.0..... 4 New Orleans 4.3
No. 5 Oklahoma City 6.7..... 5 Nashville 3.3
No. 6 Austin 6.6..... Memphis 3.3
No. 7 Tulsa 6.4...... Columbus 3.3
No. 8 Knoxville 6.2...... Jacksonville 3.3
Nashville 6.2 No. 9...... Louisville 3.2
No. 10 Jacksonville 6.1...... Atlanta 3.2
No. 11 Atlanta 5.9 No. 11..... Charlotte 2.9
Memphis 5.9 No. 12..... Oklahoma City 2.8
No. 13 Dayton 5.6...... No. 13 Orlando 2.7
No. 14 Orlando 5.2...... No. 14 Tulsa 2.6
No. 15 Charlotte 5.1...... Tampa-St. Petersburg 2.6
No. 16 Richmond 5.0...... No. 16 Austin 2.5
No. 17 Kansas City 4.8...... West Palm Beach 2.5
Tampa-St. Petersburg 4.8 No. 18 Kansas City 2.4
No. 19 Norfolk 4.7..... Norfolk 2.4
Louisville 4.7
No. 20 Dayton 2.3..... Phoenix 4.7
No. 21 Greensboro 2.2
No. 22 Portland 4.6..... Raleigh-Durham 2.2
No. 23 Seattle 4.5..... Richmond 2.2
No. 24 West Palm Beach 4.4..... No. 24 Ft. Myers 2.1
No. 25 Ft. Myers 4.3..... No. 25 Dallas-Fort Worth 2.0
Greensboro 4.3..... Las Vegas 2.0
Raleigh-Durham 4.3

What do you not see on this list?

NY, DC...among others.....Other then Columbus, Ohio...college football watching on ESPN is at a lower latitude on your GPS.

 

[buddy]

Good grief! You say that the NE is a football black hole. I agree.

"The highest rated local market for ESPN's college football coverage throughout the season should come as no surprise. That's Birmingham, Ala., which averaged a 9.2 rating. That number is nearly twice as high as second-place Greenville, SC, which averaged a 4.9 rating. The rest of the top 10 is pretty much what you'd expect as most are in the southeastern part of the country. Knoxville, Tenn. was third and followed by New Orleans, La., Nashville, Tenn. Memphis, Tenn., Columbus, Ohio, Jacksonville, Fla., Louisville, Ky. and Atlanta, Ga."


Birmingham, the highest-rated metered market for ESPN's regular-season telecasts for 13 straight years, was the highest-rated market for ESPN's 29 bowl telecasts, averaging an 11.9 rating.

All 25 of the top markets averaged a 4.3 rating or better with Columbus, New Orleans and Greenville posting a 7.0 or higher rating.


The top 25 markets for ESPN's bowl and regular-season telecasts for the 2013-14 season:

Bowl Rank Market Rating Season Rank Market Rating
No. 1 Birmingham 11.9..... 1 Birmingham 9.2
No. 2 Columbus 7.4..... 2 Greenville 4.9
No. 3 New Orleans 7.1..... 3 Knoxville 4.4
No. 4 Greenville 7.0..... 4 New Orleans 4.3
No. 5 Oklahoma City 6.7..... 5 Nashville 3.3
No. 6 Austin 6.6..... Memphis 3.3
No. 7 Tulsa 6.4. Columbus 3.3
No. 8 Knoxville 6.2. Jacksonville 3.3
Nashville 6.2 No. 9. Louisville 3.2
No. 10 Jacksonville 6.1. Atlanta 3.2
No. 11 Atlanta 5.9 No. 11..... Charlotte 2.9
Memphis 5.9 No. 12..... Oklahoma City 2.8
No. 13 Dayton 5.6. No. 13 Orlando 2.7
No. 14 Orlando 5.2. No. 14 Tulsa 2.6
No. 15 Charlotte 5.1. Tampa-St. Petersburg 2.6
No. 16 Richmond 5.0. No. 16 Austin 2.5
No. 17 Kansas City 4.8. West Palm Beach 2.5
Tampa-St. Petersburg 4.8 No. 18 Kansas City 2.4
No. 19 Norfolk 4.7..... Norfolk 2.4
Louisville 4.7
No. 20 Dayton 2.3..... Phoenix 4.7
No. 21 Greensboro 2.2
No. 22 Portland 4.6..... Raleigh-Durham 2.2
No. 23 Seattle 4.5..... Richmond 2.2
No. 24 West Palm Beach 4.4..... No. 24 Ft. Myers 2.1
No. 25 Ft. Myers 4.3..... No. 25 Dallas-Fort Worth 2.0
Greensboro 4.3..... Las Vegas 2.0
Raleigh-Durham 4.3

What do you not see on this list?

NY, DC...among others.....Other then Columbus, Ohio...college football watching on ESPN is at a lower latitude on your GPS.

Now we can see why ESPN pushed Louisville into the ACC.

 

[UConn Dan]

Now we can see why ESPN pushed Louisville into the ACC.

Those numbers are sort of misleading... just because an ESPN telecast had more market share in Louisville doesn't mean that ESPN getting a lower market share in NYC or Hartford-New Haven is worth less to them. Which city has more population and more affluent customers? What's more, note that UConn football wasn't on ESPN that much in the down year and had no bowl appearance - I don't know if they had been on more that they would have cracked the top 25 in Hartford-New Haven market share, but basketball was definitely top 10 last year.

National ratings for individual teams/games would make a better argument.

 

[WestHartHusk]

Now we can see why ESPN pushed Louisville into the ACC.

God you are thick. Maybe ESPiN put L'Ville on national television more often because they were joining the ACC? Or maybe Kentucky has a lot of folks that watch SEC football because of, you know, that other school.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Now we can see why ESPN pushed Louisville into the ACC.

Based on your kindergarten logic, ECU should be in the P5. Also, you might as well remove all the schools not in the deep south off the P5 list. I guess P12 is now no longer a P5 conference.

 

[kingdobbs]

Based on your kindergarten logic, ECU should be in the P5. Also, you might as well remove all the schools not in the deep south off the P5 list. I guess P12 is now no longer a P5 conference.

That's Greenville, *South* Carolina on that list. As in, Clemson's home media market.

 

[Nostical]

The relatively high ranking of Orlando on that list would make me concerned about UCF playing the "Louisville" spoiler role in the next conference expansion.