ACC expansion will pay off in new TV deal

[HartbeatHusky]

ESPN will pay the Big East the same as originally offered--$130 million.

The BE will guarantee more content (9-game conference schedule), more teams (markets), and concede more media rights.

That will be split between 12 football shares and 16 basketball shares--28 shares in total

The one revenue sport members will get $4.65 million per school and All Sports a combined $9.3 mil a school. Nothing more. That's a 160% increase over the current contract's $3.6 mil.

It was originally speculated in the press the BE would split the $130 million contract as $4.6 million for basketball (8 teams) and $10.3 million for both revenue sports (9 teams w/ TCU).

The football schools like UConn will make up the lost revenue money by dividing exit fees for SU/WVU/Pitt and colelcting more during phase in periods for the new teams before they get a full share.

Expect UConn to see about the same amount $10.3 mil based on the exit fees andphase-in distributions and $9.3 mil BE base.

The only response I have for this is that if ESPN is still willing to pay this amount that means that NBC would be willing to pay more. I have no idea if what you are saying is accurate but NBC will almost certainly be in a position to outbid ESPN. So I actually like our chances if ESPN still wants to pay about $10M per all-sports member for the New Big East, something I'm certainly not sure of.

 

[TRest]

The only response I have for this is that if ESPN is still willing to pay this amount that means that NBC would be willing to pay more. I have no idea if what you are saying is accurate but NBC will almost certainly be in a position to outbid ESPN. So I actually like our chances if ESPN still wants to pay about $10M per all-sports member for the New Big East, something I'm certainly not sure of.

And NBC wants exclusive rights to a football conference featuring a bunch of scrubs. Basketball just got worse and football just got more anonymous. Unless Boise St is ND in drag.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

And NBC wants exclusive rights to a football conference featuring a bunch of scrubs. Basketball just got worse and football just got more anonymous. Unless Boise St is ND in drag.

Based on what they have said, they certainly do want the exclusive rights. Nobody is just making this up. NBC wants the Big East. They've said it. They've made it clear that even after the defections they want it. What they are willing to pay for it will be determined by how much ESPN is still willing to pay for it. That's just business.

 

[RS9999X]

I don't see either bidding higher than the $130 million. The markets and viewers aren't there. If Marinatto can salvage a $130 million deal the BE will call it a huge win under the circumstances.

Comcast can create content through contracts with UFC and WWE, etc. At some point its simply more profitable to pay alt.sports and offer a different experience and concede college.

This could fly South quickly. The BCS contract, the BE substandard basketball performance this year.

Read these headlines and weep:

Lowest ratings in the BCS era: The ’11-12 college bowl season averaged 5.2 million viewers for 34 telecasts across Fox, CBS, ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, down 15% from 6.1 million viewers last year.

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2012/01/13/Media/Bowl-ratings.aspx

The beancounters are ratcheting down the growth figures as we speak

>> Birmingham's BBVA Compass Bowl drew its fewest viewers in the game's six-year history with a 1.5 rating for Pittsburgh-SMU. That's down 32 percent from a year ago and surpassed the old low of 1.6 for South Carolina-Connecticut in the 2009 season <<

There's this whole issue of aggressive NFL marketing to fill more January time slots and to compete against more bowls. Guess where NBC/Comcast stands on that? More NFL and new NFL time slots to undermine the NCAA bowl season. More premium NBA matchups in the Holiday Season, etc.. That's their lobby. That's where they really want to spend their money.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

The fact remains that Big East basketball, even in it's diminished form, would be a major get for NBC and NBC Sports Network. If they can get exclusive Big East basketball rights, including the Big East Tournament in MSG, it would be huge for their fledgling network. That is why I believe that NBC will be willing to pay more than whatever ESPN is willing to pay.

It would also allow NBC to pick up one of the 6 major college athletic conferences and have some relevance in the college football marketplace. Even Big East football would be a boost for NBC during the college football season, although the Big East allure will still be primarily in basketball. I'm not convinced that ESPN will be willing to match it's previous offer but I definitely feel like the Big East will end up getting a more substantial offer from NBC that it will probably have to take.

 

[Fishy]

We're gonna make $15M per year.

Okie dokie.

Someone tell Syracuse and Pitt that they lost money by going to the ACC. Hold the receiver away from your ear, though, the laughter will probably be kinda explosive.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

We're gonna make $15M per year.

Okie dokie.

Someone tell Syracuse and Pitt that they lost money by going to the ACC. Hold the receiver away from your ear, though, the laughter will probably be kinda explosive.

Personally, I don't think so. I think it'll be more in the $10-12M range. I think $5 to $7M is just about as extremely pessimistic as $15M or over is wildly optimistic.

 

[RS9999X]

Personally, I don't think so. I think it'll be more in the $10-12M range. I think $5 to $7M is just about as extremely pessimistic as $15M or over is wildly optimistic.

'I'd agree that $5 to $7 mil is a worst case scenario but a worst case scenario is still in play. The only good news is the NFL rejecting an 18 game season which was designed to destroy the College Bowl Season.

 

[Carl Spackler]

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2012/01/13/Media/Bowl-ratings.aspx


Did you acutally read the article?

THe most viewed bowl games are actually were on CBS and Fox.

One of the downfalls ESPN has of having a fundamentally diametrically opposed interests in your business model, that being a 24 hour news reporting agency on the very same subject matter and product that you are trying to promote.

ESPN can't sell the BCS to the public, because the more they talk about it, and report on it, the more people begin to understand how corrupt the BCS bowl system is, and how the other bowls follow suit with their policies and procedures.

They are seriously throwing the word "playoff" around right now regarding the BCS and a national championship game, because they know that the word alone - "playoff" - will get some the masses to think differently, at least temporarily. Until the next time that two teams match up in the 'playoffs' that have no business playing again for a title.

THe fact is that the "playoff" being discussed by the BCS, owned by ESPN, is as far from a true playoff for a national champion as there can possibly be.

THe only thing that a football program can trully hang it's hat on, is winning it's conference title. Until there is a national playoff system that trully determines a champion on the field of play, the college bowl system will continue to be what it's always been.

Until there is a true playoff among conference champions to determine a national champion, the college football post season will continue to be what it's always been - what Coach P effectively described the college football postseason as. A reward system. What the BCS has done, is limit the rewards to a select few of programs.

 

[BlueMAB]

Unless we get Scott Boras as an agent. Look what he convinced the Yankees to pay for AROD when nobody else was bidding.

Could you be more specific? Are you talking about 2007? When A-Rod agreed to take less money than his contract guaranteed in order to be traded to the Red Sox? Until that was nixed by the players union, and the Yankees agreed to pay him what he was owed.

 

[BlueMAB]

The boneyard never dissapoints. Someone made the argument we're going to get paid $15mm/year and pointed to an article citing 10 unnamed media analysts who said we should get between $6mm and $10mm as support. Priceless.

 

[SubbaBub]

NBC will bid as they currently feature college hockey on NBCSports. Will it exceed the 130m offered by ESPN? We'll see.

I suspect that ESPN's interest in keeping the BE at all is fading quickly.

Promotion of non-BE BB is up. I still see the loss of.ESPN promotion as the biggest risk to the conference. Do you think any future BCS controlled by ESPN won't favor its teams/conferences?

They have already replaced the inventory of FB games on the national feeds and tbh created more potential marquis matchups for about 20% of what they offered the BE.

Sure, they would like to freeze out NBC, but I think they have positioned themselves to let the BE walk if they can't get a favorable deal.





Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk

 

[HartbeatHusky]

The dismantling of the current BCS could weaken ESPN's grip though. They are now saying that the NC game will be put out to bid each year and the playoffs will be removed from the BCS/Bowl system. That would mean that the playoff games and NC game would change networks year after year so ESPN's power would be greatly diminished.

 

[Rumrunner]

The guy that runs NBC sports is quoted as saying he wants the overhauled big east's inventory. The problem for the big east is at what price?

We can all argue the population of houston, dallas, orlando, etc., but the bottom line is that Big East is looking at the ACC's renegotiated contract as a ceiling, certainly not the floor as many had envisioned last summer. Just because someone wants your product doesn't mean that they will overpay for it. But the Big East is lucky in that at least there is competition. If the BE all sports get $7-11 million per year (using the best numbers available), then that is going to be less than the $15-16 million that the ACC will receive.

Boise State's president is on the record as stating the floor for the Big East football product is $5 million per team. Just to play devil's advocate, many here speculate that the BE basketball product is worth close in value to the football product. If that is true, what is the BE going to say when it's alleged that its basketball product has plummeted in value with "cuse, Pitt, WVU (and very likely Louisville) all gone?

Basically, while the ACC's contract is lower than the other major conferences, ($20-23 million) they are in the neighboorhood, albeit the back yard is barren, and carpet in the house is all beige. The Big East potentially will be valued at approximately 50-70% of the ACC, and 40-50% of the Big 12, Big 10, and Pac 12.

 

[Fishy]

We need ESPN. Not having the basketball program on ESPN will be a massive blow - ignoring the nonsense above, good luck telling recruits that our games will be on Verses just after the deer hunting and just before the replay of the 1992 Bass Masters Classic.

There is no mitigating or underestimating the power of Disney/ABC in sports television. Nothing will weaken their grasp -- they've not had the championship game prior and it did not weaken 'em a bit. They own college sports, lock, stock and barrel.

There are 35 bowls. Disney/ABC produced all but two of them - CBS has the Sun Bowl and Fox had the Cotton Bowl.

I don't think the ACC contract is our ceiling - it's a story about our ceiling. If we get $10M each of the next deal, I'll be thrilled.

I'll be even more thrilled if we shake free of the Big East.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

The guy that runs NBC sports is quoted as saying he wants the overhauled big east's inventory. The problem for the big east is at what price?

We can all argue the population of houston, dallas, orlando, etc., but the bottom line is that Big East is looking at the ACC's renegotiated contract as a ceiling, certainly not the floor as many had envisioned last summer. Just because someone wants your product doesn't mean that they will overpay for it. But the Big East is lucky in that at least there is competition. If the BE all sports get $7-11 million per year (using the best numbers available), then that is going to be less than the $15-16 million that the ACC will receive.

Boise State's president is on the record as stating the floor for the Big East football product is $5 million per team. Just to play devil's advocate, many here speculate that the BE basketball product is worth close in value to the football product. If that is true, what is the BE going to say when it's alleged that its basketball product has plummeted in value with "cuse, Pitt, WVU (and very likely Louisville) all gone?

Basically, while the ACC's contract is lower than the other major conferences, ($20-23 million) they are in the neighboorhood, albeit the back yard is barren, and carpet in the house is all beige. The Big East potentially will be valued at approximately 50-70% of the ACC, and 40-50% of the Big 12, Big 10, and Pac 12.

First, ACC's deal is absolutely not BE's ceiling. That would be very stupid of BE to see that as the ceiling. ACC was the first conference to negotiate for a deal and frankly, they got screwed. They went for renegotiation again after weakening the BE by snatching CUSE and Pitt. Again, they have one company to negotiate with and that's ESPN. There is absolutely no incentive whatsoever for ESPN to give ACC a better deal when they already got the ACC locked down for 13 years. ESPN gave them a small bone ($1M to $2M more per team per year) but also forced the ACC to provide more content (9 conference games vs. 8) and 3 more years. I think ESPN made out like bandits if the article is true.

BE is negotiating from completely difference stance. BE added bunch of new markets. In addition, BE can deliver football games in 4 different starting times on a SAT across the country. That is something ACC cannot do. BE can be on all day on NBC with ND. People might not think teams BE added are much today, but I believe they will flourish under the BE label. Take Houston for example, Houston already gets better TV ratings than the B12 in Houston when they are just a CUSA team. I believe they can deliver that market once in the BE. Look at this article below:

http://businessofcollegesports.com/2011/09/01/the-case-for-houston-to-the-big-12-economic-impact/

Does anyone really believe PAC-12 deserves $250M per year? Really? Are you serious? They only got that amount because of multiple bidders. Original bid by ESPN was like $200M. Comcast upped it to $225M and ESPN/FOX finally out bidded Comcast for $250M. Market conditions and timing favor the next BE negotiation. BE basketball is still very valuable even without CUSE and Pitt. I believe BE can get $5M to $7M for basketball alone due to amount of inventory. Football wise, if BE can land between $7M to $12M it will be pretty nice. $12M is the bottom I expect and I believe $19M to $20M should be the high ceiling they try for.

 

[CL82]

At last someone points out that what is being bought is a timeslot around which to put commercials. Number of games, television markets, amount of broadcast product is what we are selling. I think that we are not recognizing the sheer volume of product that the Big East provides. I also think we are undervaluing how much the mouse will spend to keep NBC Sports from getting a toe hold, or how much NBC will spend to make sure they can establish a beach head...but we'll see soon enough.