ACC 2025-26 | Page 10 | The Boneyard

ACC 2025-26

FanInNC said:
Coming down the home stretch for the regular season and the ACC is LOADED with bubble teams. I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the teams who are in the mix for the tournament either as locks or bubble teams or teams just outside the bubble and see what their final stretch looks like.

Louisville Cardinals (24-4, 14-1)
Projected 2 seed
NET - 9
Q1 7-4, Q2 4-0, Q3 1-0, Q4 12-0
Non Con SOS 31
Remaining Games: Virginia (37), @GT (86), ND (28)
Outlook: 2 feels about the ceiling for UL, they have a couple of decent games left here to pad their resume but nothing that could truly move the needle. Now if they win out and then go on to win the ACCT and get a win over Duke (10), could that be enough to push them to a #1? Maybe. I think they would need some help most likely.

Duke Blue Devils (19-6, 14-0)
Projected 3 seed
NET - 10
Q1 5-5, Q2 5-1, Q3 2-0, Q4 7-0
Non Con SOS 2
Remaining Games: NC State (24), @Clemson (39), FSU (107), @UNC (19)
Outlook: I can easily see Duke moving up to a 2, they still have 3 games currently considered Q1. If they can sweep through the ACC and then win the ACCT, possibly having to beat UL to do so, Duke would be on an absolute heater and probably would have collected 5ish Q1 wins in the process pushing their Q1 record to 10-5. They'd have a top 5 strength of schedule in the nation and wouldn't have lost since early December.

North Carolina Tar Heels (21-6, 10-4)
Projected 5 seed
NET - 19
Q1 1-5, Q2 7-1, Q3 4-0, Q4 9-0
Non Con SOS 96
Remaining Games: @VT (41), Pitt (255), @UVa (37), Duke (10)
Outlook: The thing really missing from UNC's resume is Q1 wins, 1-7 isn't so stellar but they do have 2 more opportunities as things currently stand and I certainly don't think it's unreasonable for them to win @UVa and they nearly beat Duke in Cameron just a few days ago without attempting a FT. So it's possible. To me they lack high end wins, their lone Q1 win is a 2 point win @ NC State who is currently a projected 6 seed. They really don't have much to hang their hat on, their next best wins are home wins over Syracuse (in OT) and Clemson. They don't have any terrible losses but there isn't a ton on the resume to feel great about. Non-conference SOS is 96th nationally, so they didn't really challenge themselves either. I'm a little surprised they are a 5 seed looking at their results, but they do have a chance to potentially move up to 4 and host if they can run the table. I could also easily see them going 2-2 and being a 6 seed.

NC State Wolfpack (17-8, 10-4)
Projected 6 seed
NET - 24
Q1 3-7, Q2 5-1, Q3 3-0, Q4 6-0
Non Con SOS 6
Remaining Games: @Duke (10), Syracuse (38), WF (128), @Pitt (255)
Outlook: State is really lacking a signature win, they have been close but missed golden opportunities against OU, USC, UNC and UL. In those 4 games (all Q1) they led the majority of the game and honestly looked like the better team most of the time, but in each one they crumbled. The non-conference SOS is 6th in the nation, but really only have a neutral court win over Tennessee to brag about. Duke represents an opportunity for a major resume boost and signature win tonight, but State is coming off their worst showing of the season. If they somehow can get it together and play to their potential down the stretch then sure, they could move up to a 5 possibly a 4 if they get on a heater. Most likely they lose tonight and finish somewhere around a 6 or 7 seed depending on how they handle Syracuse and the how they fare in the ACCT.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (16-9, 8-6)
Projected 7 seed
NET - 28
Q1 4-6, Q2 2-2, Q3 2-1, Q4 8-0
Non Con SOS 33
Remaining Games: @WF (128), @SMU (195), Syracuse (38), @UL (9)
Outlook: With 4 Q1 wins, ND punches up well enough, their issue is they are just 4-3 in Q2 and Q3 games. You'd imagine they will easily handle WF and SMU but that wont help their standing at all, Syracuse at home is a very big game for them and @UL to close the season represents the BIG opportunity for the Irish to improve their resume. I don't really see a path to them hosting, but if they finished strong they could move up to as high as a 5 - of course that means winning at UL which feels unlikely. If they can hold serve and beat SU while handling the sisters of the poor I'd think ND might could wind up around the 6 line, maybe stay at 7 depending on what else happens around them. 2-2 dropping games to SU and UL might push them to the 8 line though which is probably something you'd want to avoid.

Syracuse Orange (21-5, 11-4)
Projected 9 seed
NET - 38
Q1 1-4, Q2 5-1, Q3 3-0, Q4 12-0
Non Con SOS 147
Remaining Games: @NCSU (24), @ND (28), BC (252)
Outlook: The next two games are huge for the Orange, State and ND represent opportunities to get their best wins of the year. If they can go on the road and get 2 Q1 wins I could see them pushing up to the 7 line. They will have a gaudy overall record granted against a very cake SOS (147 non conference). But if they got those wins they would then be 3-4 in Q1 and 5-1 in Q2, that's pretty solid. Then again if they get swept the Orange may drop on down to the 10 line. I think at this point they are locks to make the tournament though despite such an empty schedule and lacking quality wins.

Virginia Tech Hokies (20-7, 10-5)
Projected 10 seed
NET 41
Q1 2-4, Q2 4-2, Q3 3-1, Q4 11-0
Non Con SOS 257
Remaining Games: UNC (19), GT (86), @UVA (37)
Outlook: VT has amassed a nice record and been solid in league play, however their SOS is really dragging them down. 257th in non-conference SOS is pretty bad, they have played 8 teams with a NET 250 or worse including the 2 lowest ranked teams in the nation (Niagra 0-25, 362 and Presbyterian 1-23, 363). VT has wins over Syracuse, Clemson, UVa and Stanford to help bolster their resume but really could use another to help solidify things. They get 2 more Q1 opportunities starting tonight against UNC which would give them their best win of the year. Similarly they end the season at rival Virginia, which also would qualify as their best win to date if they are unable to beat the Heels tonight. The question is what happens if VT loses both of those games? I'm assuming they probably stills squeak in but that's a scary place to be if you're the Hokies. Gotta go 2-1 to close the season to feel good, a win tonight would be massive.

Clemson Tigers (18-9, 9-6)
Projected 12 seed
NET 39
Q1 2-8, Q2 1-0, Q3 1-1, Q4 14-0
Non Con SOS 274
Remaining Games: Duke (10), @Cal (55), @Stanford (44)
Outlook: Clemson is currently listed as the next to last team IN the field, so very little room for error. Obviously if they did the unimaginable and beat Duke it's case closed and they are a lock. Assuming that doesn't happen, it feels like they probably need to beat both Stanford and Cal on the road. A tall task for a team of their caliber, Cal and Stanford aren't great, but that's proven to be a tricky road trip over the last 2 years for the conference. They had a golden opportunity against Syracuse to give themselves some breathing room, but came up short in the final seconds. Their calling card is that they have wins @ Notre Dame and against NC State, two teams solidly in the tournament and top 30 according to the NET. Much like VT though, Clemson will only have themselves to blame for scheduling such a cupcake non conference schedule littered with teams between 240-363 (8 of them and then of course 2 more in conference with Pitt and BC).

Virginia Cavaliers (18-8, 10-5)
Projected 1st team OUT
NET 37
Q1 1-5, Q2 2-2, Q3 4-0, Q4 11-1
Non Con SOS 130
Remaining Games: @UL (9), UNC (19), VT (41)
Outlook: Once again, scheduling. While UVA scheduled much more respectably than VT or Clemson - it was still loaded with Q4s and to top it off they dropped one to pesky UMBC (198)! UVa has just 1 Q1 win which came against the Irish. However they have 2 Q1's left and VT represents a team they are directly competing with on the bubble, so plenty of opportunity to prove their worth. I have felt all season that UVa has the talent on the roster to be a top 4 or 5 team in the ACC but they have underperformed and disappointed IMO. Losing to Cal, VT, Syracuse, State and Nebraska are prime examples. I sort of look at UVa as being on par with all of those teams talent wise and struck out in those games - the only 'coin flip' games they won were Clemson, ND and Stanford and honestly I think they have a better roster than those teams and quite frankly a few of the others I listed that they lost to. UVa could play themselves into the tournament pretty easily by going 2-1 in these final 3 given the level of competition. 1-2 is going to be a major sweat and probably not quite enough if they are truly already sitting on the outside looking in currently.

Stanford Cardinal (16-11, 5-9)
Projected 3rd team OUT
NET 44
Q1 2-5, Q2 3-4, Q3 2-1, Q4 9-1
Non Con SOS 91
Remaining Games: @Miami (57), @FSU (107), SMU (195), Clemson (39)
Outlook: I have a hard time seeing Stanford sneaking in without winning out. Unfortunately for them the remaining games on their schedule don't exactly boost their resume even if they win them. Clemson is the only one that has a chance to help out a little. Certainly would seem safe to assume any loss would be a death nail for the Cardinal. I'm curious what the vibe is around the program and among fans, I believe they had made the NCAAT 36 years in a row and now Coach Paye may be 0-2 in her 2 seasons since taking over.

California Golden Bears (16-11, 7-7)
Projected 8th team OUT
NET 55
Q1 0-8, Q2 3-2, Q3 2-1, Q4 11-0
Non Con SOS 169
Remaining Games: FSU (107), @Miami (57), Clemson (39), SMU (195)
Outlook: Similarly to Stanford, it feels like a bit of a longshot for Cal to get an at-large bid at this point. They definitely can't take a loss and really only have 1 game of any significance to add to their resume. They will finish the season without any Q1 wins - if they win out and get to 20-11...is it enough? Feels like they will need quite a bit of help.
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As a Sun Devil fan I appreciated your comments about the Clemson, Virginia and the California schools. I'm wondering if Virginia goes 1-2 but runs deep in the ACC tournament if they sneak in? On the Big 12 thread I indicated Stanford and Cal as the biggest threats to the Sun Devils sneaking in
 
nwhoopfan said:
Florida St. had Cal in trouble for most of the game. But then the 4th quarter happened. There seem to be a lot of teams that don't realize the game isn't over after 3 quarters. My team is one of those. Seems like something pretty basic to have a misunderstanding about.
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And Lulu was amazing, scoring 20 of Cal's 28 4th quarter points. 4th quarter surge pushes Cal WBB past Florida State

Her ACC stats:
  • Minutes/game: 2nd (38.4)
  • Points/game: 8th (16.0)
  • Assists/game: 8th (4.5)
  • Free throw%: 2nd (92.5%)
  • Three pointers/game: 1st (3.1)
Meanwhile I am proud of Cal. They've won 6 of their last 9 (after a tough ACC start) and currently sit at the middle of the standings. If they win out, they can make the tourney....tough game against Miami, then Clemson and SMU at. home.
 
azfan said:
As a Sun Devil fan I appreciated your comments about the Clemson, Virginia and the California schools. I'm wondering if Virginia goes 1-2 but runs deep in the ACC tournament if they sneak in? On the Big 12 thread I indicated Stanford and Cal as the biggest threats to the Sun Devils sneaking in
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Yeah, I mean I think that probably depends on who the 1 is they beat to end the season and additionally who they would beat in that scenario in the ACCT. For instance if the lone win is over VT...feels like to me they'd need another win over a bubble type team or better in the ACCT. If they beat UL or UNC that win would carry a lot more weight I'd imagine, especially UL. So maybe a couple wins over say a WF and Miami in the ACCT would be enough. Hard to say.

Stanford took a bad loss last night. They are really cratering to end the season. Ever since that UNC win they are 3-9 and those 3 wins are over WF, BC and Pitt. I mean that's pretty rough.
 
CalWBBfan said:
And Lulu was amazing, scoring 20 of Cal's 28 4th quarter points. 4th quarter surge pushes Cal WBB past Florida State

Her ACC stats:
  • Minutes/game: 2nd (38.4)
  • Points/game: 8th (16.0)
  • Assists/game: 8th (4.5)
  • Free throw%: 2nd (92.5%)
  • Three pointers/game: 1st (3.1)
Meanwhile I am proud of Cal. They've won 6 of their last 9 (after a tough ACC start) and currently sit at the middle of the standings. If they win out, they can make the tourney....tough game against Miami, then Clemson and SMU at. home.
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I'm a believer in Cal over Miami. It's a road game so I know that makes it tougher for sure, but I just don't respect Miami that much this year. It feels like to me they have lost to every team with a pulse outside of VT and then last night's game over Stanford. I was honestly surprised to see Miami handle Stanford like that.
 
FanInNC said:
Stanford took a bad loss last night. They are really cratering to end the season. Ever since that UNC win they are 3-9 and those 3 wins are over WF, BC and Pitt. I mean that's pretty rough.
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That's (@ Miami) not a bad loss. It's a loss that they couldn't afford because they can't afford to lose...period.
 
LETTERL said:
NC State has the look of a one-and-done team in the NCAAT. In the last few weeks, poor play has dominated court time and good, sound stretches have been few and far between when playing teams at or above their skill level.

As @FanInNC so eloquently put it earlier in the thread, the ladies don't always play together or give 100% effort all the time. That kind of thing isn't leading to success here late in the conference season and certainly won't work in the post-season.
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That's because they are (in all likelihood), which is why they're looking at an 8 or 9 seed. I can't see them winning a game in the ACC Tournament, either.

The talent is there, even if the pieces don't always fit. The coaching has not been there this season for this group.
 
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WBBTakeover said:
That's (@ Miami) not a bad loss. It's a loss that they couldn't afford because they can't afford to lose...period.
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I mean it's not bad in the sense that it's not the same as losing to BC or Pitt or some doormat like that, but Miami is not a good team. They were below Stanford in the NET, they are not a NCAAT team and they are barely above .500 on the year. When Miami doesn't play Pitt, SMU, BC or WF they were 2-9 in league play going into that one (and that includes 2 games against FSU). IMO that counts as a bad loss, I think we are just quibbling about how bad it is.
 
FanInNC said:
I mean it's not bad in the sense that it's not the same as losing to BC or Pitt or some doormat like that, but Miami is not a good team. They were below Stanford in the NET, they are not a NCAAT team and they are barely above .500 on the year. When Miami doesn't play Pitt, SMU, BC or WF they were 2-9 in league play going into that one (and that includes 2 games against FSU). IMO that counts as a bad loss, I think we are just quibbling about how bad it is.
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It doesn't matter that Miami isn't a "good" team. Stanford can't afford any losses, even to "good" teams. They could've lost to Duke or Louisville last night and the same would hold true for their NCAA chances (on life support). They're now 5-10 in the ACC. That's pitiful.

The point is that they could've afforded a road loss to Miami if they were, say, 9-5 or 10-4. Miami is not so bad that a loss to them cannot be overcome by a decent team. They're not Pitt, BC, or SMU. They're not even Wake or Georgia Tech. But because Stanford has had a poor ACC showing, any loss at any time will sink them.
 
CalWBBfan said:
And Lulu was amazing, scoring 20 of Cal's 28 4th quarter points. 4th quarter surge pushes Cal WBB past Florida State

Her ACC stats:
  • Minutes/game: 2nd (38.4)
  • Points/game: 8th (16.0)
  • Assists/game: 8th (4.5)
  • Free throw%: 2nd (92.5%)
  • Three pointers/game: 1st (3.1)
Meanwhile I am proud of Cal. They've won 6 of their last 9 (after a tough ACC start) and currently sit at the middle of the standings. If they win out, they can make the tourney....tough game against Miami, then Clemson and SMU at. home.
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I’m pulling for Cal because of the former Gamecock post backup who has found a home her senior (6th?) year.
 
Anything Is Possible GIF


While I've been focused on the chaos of the BIG10, this GIF seems appropriate for the upsets in the ACC today. 😉
 
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FanInNC said:
Tickets punched for UVa and Clemson? Bubbles bursted for Cal. Miami proves the thorn in the side for both west coast schools this road trip.
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Clemson maybe. UVa still has some work to do I think.
 
FanInNC said:
Tickets punched for UVa and Clemson? Bubbles bursted for Cal. Miami proves the thorn in the side for both west coast schools this road trip.
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Still on the bubble, just moved up a few spots. They were bubble teams coming into today for a reason.
 
triaddukefan said:


And SMU
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So the three also rans were also ran out of the gym? This will probably be a totally moonshot opinion, but I'll be curious to see how SMU fares over the next few seasons. Their (decimated by injuries) team was locked in against ND when basically nothing was at stake and Adia has both an AD and a fan base ready to invest. Certainly it feels like one of the most fertile untapped hardcourts in the P4.
 
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Rumors of NC State's impending death were put aside temporarily Sunday as the Wolfpack Women played with energy, purpose and with a lot of effort in keeping Syracuse at bay, 82-69. NC State looked better in the first half than they have for most of the season. 4 ladies finished in double figures, led by Khamil Pierre's 25 points.

The Wolfpack Women (18-9, 11-5 ACC) conclude the regular season with winnable games against Wake Forest and Pitt. High likelihood of claiming one of those precious top 4 seeds in the upcoming ACCT and the double-bye that comes with it.
 
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