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AAC Tournament Bracket

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The meat of the difficulty in those odds is us winning out. If we do that, it's actually quite likely Memphis will lose at least one other game, and there's a decent chance Cincy loses two.
 
UConnPuneet said:
If we won out and were tied with any of the other 3 at 12-6, we'd lose to Cincy (worse W-L vs SMU), lose to Memphis (worse W-L vs Cincy), and beat Temple (better W-L vs either SMU or Tulsa).

Basically we would need to win out, have Cincy lose two, and Memphis lose one other (besides their 3/5 loss to us). Ran the numbers real quick using Pomeroy's current WP and there's about a 3.3% chance of that happening.
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Memphis could easily finish 0-4
 
I'm thinking we go 2-2, Memphis goes 1-3 (losing to UConn), both finishing at 10-8. We win tiebreaker and take 5th.

Thus, KO might want to tank the Memphis game ;)
 
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UConnPuneet said:
Memphis could very easily lose out. I think 5 is still our more likely end result. Which might mean we still get Temple as the 4 (Cincy will probably pass or tie them and Cincy has tiebreaker) but wouldn't get to avoid SMU.
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The best possible scenario I think would be to get the 4 or 5 seed and then hope Tulsa overtakes SMU for the 1 seed. They have a tough final 3 games, but SMU also has a tough final 3.
 
johnhuskies95 said:
The best possible scenario I think would be to get the 4 or 5 seed and then hope Tulsa overtakes SMU for the 1 seed. They have a tough final 3 games, but SMU also has a tough final 3.
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Best but not most realistic right????
 
storrsroars said:
I'm thinking we go 2-2, Memphis goes 1-3 (losing to UConn), both finishing at 10-8. We win tiebreaker and take 5th.

Thus, KO might want to tank the Memphis game ;)
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lol...maybe. It won't happen though.
 
2/26 Update: Biggest change was Temple & Cinci switching seeds.

AAC-Tournament-Bracket.png


Remaining schedule for the top 6:

SMU: @ Memphis, @ UConn, Tulsa
Tulsa: @ Memphis, Cincinnati, @ SMU
Cincinnati: @ Tulane, @ Tulsa, Memphis
Temple: Houston, @ East Carolina, UConn
Memphis: SMU, Tulsa, @ UConn, @ Cincinnati
Connecticut: SMU, Memphis, @ Temple
 
We officially can't fall below 6th or get either of the top 2 seeds.
 
I don't think I care at this point what happens at 5th place or above. We just have to get there. Facing Houston hurts our RPI even if we win that game.
 
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Leebo said:
I don't think I care at this point what happens at 5th place or above. We just have to get there. Facing Houston hurts our RPI even if we win that game.
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RPI doesn't matter at this point. We need to win the AACT.
 
True, the difference between winning the tournament while facing Houston and winning the tournament while not facing them could be a whole seed difference.
 
Not sure what you're seeing, but according to RPIForecast/Wizard we can get to the championship and lose to SMU while playing Houston and get a 49 RPI if we win out otherwise. I'm still not sure that would be enough. We're 4-10 against RPI top 100 right now and would be 9-11 against top 100 if the seeds broke as listed.
 
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I must have been using different intermediate opponents from Cincy and Tulsa, but it doesn't change the fact that Houston hurts RPI.

There's just no reason to want to play that game, regardless of how it sets up the rest of the schedule. If we had to play SMU earlier, or play Houston in the first game, I'd take playing SMU earlier.
 
As of today there are 28 teams ahead of UConn for an At-Large bid. Time will pass and the situation is very fluid. It is almost like a count down! lol...or up depending.
 
Leebo said:
True, the difference between winning the tournament while facing Houston and winning the tournament while not facing them could be a whole seed difference.
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Don't really think seeding matters. If we win AAC tourney I'd be willing to bet we're in one of the first four games.
 
gwhuskyfan said:
Don't really think seeding matters. If we win AAC tourney I'd be willing to bet we're in one of the first four games.
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I thought play-in games were reserved for the last 4 at large bids. We'd clearly not be at large if we won the American tournament.
 
tzznandrew said:
I thought play-in games were reserved for the last 4 at large bids. We'd clearly not be at large if we won the American tournament.
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On second thought, you might be right about that. My bad.
 
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gwhuskyfan said:
Don't really think seeding matters. If we win AAC tourney I'd be willing to bet we're in one of the first four games.
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That's not going to happen. First four game pit the 4 worst at-larges against each other and the 4 worst autobids. The teams playing in the first four will be from the MEACs/SWACs/America Easts of the world. They will be competing for 16 seeds.

Just for reference, the play-in games for 16 seeds featuring the bottom autobids for the last 5 years:
  • 2014: Albany (AE) vs. Mount St. Mary's (NEC), Cal Poly (Big West) vs. Texas Southern (SWAC)
  • 2013: Liberty (Big South) vs. North Carolina A&T (MEAC), James Madison (CAA) vs. Long Island (NEC)
  • 2012: Mississippi Valley State (SWAC) vs. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Lamar (Southland) vs. Vermont (AE)
  • 2011: Texas-San Antonio (CUSA) vs. Alabama State (SWAC), UNC Asheville (Big South) vs. Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt)
  • 2010: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) vs. Winthrop (Big South)
Much has been made about this team's less-than-satisfactory performance. But I'm confident that we're ahead of where every single one of these programs was. And as much as this conference has been maligned, it's not down to this level either.

If we get the autobid, I see us as a 12/13 seed. Not a 16.
 
gwhuskyfan said:
Don't really think seeding matters. If we win AAC tourney I'd be willing to bet we're in one of the first four games.
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Can't be so don't bet on it.

Only 16 seeds qualify for playin game as auto bids.
 
Honestly, I think playing in the 9 PM slot on Friday night is more important than the opponent. We need an invested crowd.
 
Well if everyone is configuring things for the best outcome relative to how they see things, I'm going to still hope for the best outcome period.

Right now that means I want UConn to win the next three, and then the next four (or three if they get a first round bye) and then the next six. That's my focus no matter how unlikely it is. The other teams and what they do are irrelevant in my myopic world.

All kidding aside I really enjoy the analysis you guys bring to the table. It is decent strategic thinking. A constantly evolving most positive outcome relative to a somewhat less than positive impression of the team.
 
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