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AAC Tournament Bracket

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fleudslipcon said:
Well if everyone is configuring things for the best outcome relative to how they see things, I'm going to still hope for the best outcome period.

Right now that means I want UConn to win the next three, and then the next four (or three if they get a first round bye) and then the next six. That's my focus no matter how unlikely it is. The other teams and what they do are irrelevant in my myopic world.

All kidding aside I really enjoy the analysis you guys bring to the table. It is decent strategic thinking. A constantly evolving most positive outcome relative to a somewhat less than positive impression of the team.
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YOU are a special UConn brodie...:) Stay healthy.
 
Jerry1714 said:
There is so many things off on this site, most importantly it lists Syracuse.
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The most important thing to do is watch the vid. These guys have been around a while so most here know of them but the info in the vid is a gold mine backed by great historical data.
 
BLUEDOGHOUSE said:
98% is the only thing you need to know. Please share your %. Lets chat...pro.
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Getting the field right is not that difficult, there is really only 2 or 3 bubble teams a year so if you get 2 wrong 63 out of 65 if you miss them which is 96%. Hell I think Nelson did it last year.

So the 98% does little for me.

What is this guy's ranking in terms of seeding? Because his seeds in this are quite off, can you find 1 other bracket with OK or Iowa State as 2 seeds? Or how about 1 bracket with either them as 2 seeds.

This is why bracketologists are judged by their seeding projections:

http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
 
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Jerry1714 said:
Getting the field right is not that difficult, there is really only 2 or 3 bubble teams a year so if you get 2 wrong 63 out of 65 if you miss them which is 96%. Hell I think Nelson did it last year.

So the 98% does little for me.

What is this guy's ranking in terms of seeding? Because his seeds in this are quite off, can you find 1 other bracket with OK or Iowa State as 2 seeds? Or how about 1 bracket with either them as 2 seeds.

This is why bracketologists are judged by their seeding projections:

http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
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2 or 3 bubble teams a year???????????? ohhhhhhhhhh boy. Illinois is @ 57. Are they a bubble team? Of course on selection Sunday the bubble may shrink. In layman's terms... I think you are missing the most important point of this particular methodology. That is to gauge in real time the status of each individual team and how it relates to the cut off threshold to make the tournament. As it relates to seeding this matrix is more of a blueprint on present standing. I think you are doing yourself a disservice for not acquiring the information generated by guys with great connections to the system as evidenced by the video. One interesting point or question was "Is your conference commissioner on the selection committee..?" The analytics pointed to a confirmed statistically significant relationship equivalent to a jump of 17 spots in RPI. That was pretty powerful stuff. Agree? Saying there is bias and then attaching actual #'s to it are what make it obvious that the devil is in the details.

From a seeding perspective the Zags will be a #1 or #2 but according to the Dance Card they would be over seeded. I certainly can't argue with that even though I think they could cut down nets with the right draw.
 
BLUEDOGHOUSE said:
2 or 3 bubble teams a year???????????? ohhhhhhhhhh boy. Illinois is @ 57. Are they a bubble team? Of course on selection Sunday the bubble may shrink. In layman's terms... I think you are missing the most important point of this particular methodology. That is to gauge in real time the status of each individual team and how it relates to the cut off threshold to make the tournament. As it relates to seeding this matrix is more of a blueprint on present standing. I think you are doing yourself a disservice for not acquiring the information generated by guys with great connections to the system as evidenced by the video. One interesting point or question was "Is your conference commissioner on the selection committee..?" The analytics pointed to a confirmed statistically significant relationship equivalent to a jump of 17 spots in RPI. That was pretty powerful stuff. Agree? Saying there is bias and then attaching actual #'s to it are what make it obvious that the devil is in the details.

From a seeding perspective the Zags will be a #1 or #2 but according to the Dance Card they would be over seeded. I certainly can't argue with that even though I think they could cut down nets with the right draw.
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Yea, last year it came down to about 4 teams for 2 spots on selection Sunday, SMU and Minnesota did not make it, Iowa amd NC State did.

Right now there are probably 20 bubble teams, but come selection Sunday it is just a few. I guess I should have phrased as it comes down to just 2 or 3 last spots, so that is 4-6 actual teams.

As for the rest of the post, I do not know enough to comment or disagree, have not watched the video. I am not knocking these guys I just think their seedings are off.
 
Jerry1714 said:
Yea, last year it came down to about 4 teams for 2 spots on selection Sunday, SMU and Minnesota did not make it, Iowa amd NC State did.

Right now there are probably 20 bubble teams, but come selection Sunday it is just a few. I guess I should have phrased as it comes down to just 2 or 3 last spots, so that is 4-6 actual teams.

As for the rest of the post, I do not know enough to comment or disagree, have not watched the video. I am not knocking these guys I just think their seedings are off.
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I think their seeding won't reflect what it probably should be. So you have a good point there.
 
I know it has been said a million times, but we need to get the heck out of this conference. Hoping Geremy Davis and Byron Jones performances in the NFL Combine has provided a little push for our football program as conference realignment approaches.
 
mauconnfan said:
We need to win out, never know
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Funny how Hathaway used the BE bias to get South Fla in when he ran the show a few years ago. We would need some pull from the authorities that be if we won out until the AAC final. I am convinced there is a way to lobby your way in from the outside also. Boise is the team to watch this year. If they are outside the bubble (lose to SDSU on Sat. and lose in MWC final) they would be on the outside looking in BUT....
 
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With Memphis losing to Tulsa in OT yesterday, and our win today, the standings look like:

fkVg1V8

http://imgur.com/fkVg1V8

Sorry, don't have the tournament bracket made. Thursday looks like a must win to ensure that 1st round bye.
 
Here's the update after today's game:

AAC-Tournament-Bracket.png


Remaining games for the top 6:

SMU: Tulsa
Tulsa: Cincinnati, @ SMU
Cincinnati: @ Tulsa, Memphis
Temple: @ East Carolina, UConn
Memphis: @ UConn, @ Cincinnati
Connecticut: Memphis, @ Temple
 
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Was wondering if we end up tied with Cincy at 3 who has the tiebreaker
 
bcisco said:
Was wondering if we end up tied with Cincy at 3 who has the tiebreaker
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Seems really important, I would bet on SMU taking back over the 1 spot, winning out to steal the 3 seed puts us on the preferred side of the bracket particularly with a hobbled Memphis team less of a threat as the 5.
 
Are those times set in stone? I like how that bracket sets up but I would rather be playing in prime time for a better crowd.
 
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reminds me of seeing the bracket for the ncaa last year and thinking "we have a chance". 80 minutes until MSG....80 minutes until Dallas....40 minutes until Dallas....80 minutes until #4..................20 minutes until #4......................well, you get the point
 
CTBasketball said:
We can beat anyone in Hartford. The crowds will come.
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Everyone knows what's at stake. Like at MSG last year. It matters. Will be a madhouse.
 
So probably looking like a 4/5 seed gonna buy tickets tomorrow for Friday afternoon games and hope for the best, but won't be terribly disappointed if they end up with the 3 seed
 
OkaForPrez said:
http://theamerican.org/documents/2015/2/18/TheAmerican-mbbTiebreakers.pdf

It's record vs. the teams in first place in descending order.

Cinci swept SMU so they own the tiebreaker.
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So according to that tiebreaker rule (correct me if im wrong) if we win out and Tulsa wins out, we would get the three seed with SMU still on our side of the bracket. And then any other scenario has us at the four or five and SMU at the one, again on our side of the bracket. Aside from us losing both our remaining games and dropping to 6, it looks like we'll have to face SMU in the semifinals either way? I could be wrong its way too late at night to be thinking about this
 
uconn17smith said:
So according to that tiebreaker rule (correct me if im wrong) if we win out and Tulsa wins out, we would get the three seed with SMU still on our side of the bracket. And then any other scenario has us at the four or five and SMU at the one, again on our side of the bracket. Aside from us losing both our remaining games and dropping to 6, it looks like we'll have to face SMU in the semifinals either way? I could be wrong its way too late at night to be thinking about this
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Well Temple and Cincinnati could both drop their last two games, although that would require Temple losing to ECU on the road and Cincy losing to Memphis at home.
 
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