AAC GOR Coming?

[Dooley]

You follow this much closer than I do. Would you be ok with an uneven distribution of money top heavy for the successful AAC football schools vs UConn too?

Absolutely not. In no world, even the current one with our football program acting as a dumpster fire, is UConn worth less than Memphis/UCF/USF/Houston/Cincinnati. I would guess that if (IF) there was uneven distribution, UConn would be in the top half of it. Our brand, markets, fanbase, etc is just way too valuable to be paid on the same plane as Tulane or East Carolina.

That said, Aresco has already gotten out and said that he doesn't think there will be uneven distribution. I doubt that would be considered especially since the entire conference openly campaigned to the Big 12 not too long ago to get out of the AAC. This would only lead to more in-fighting, distrust, and that means absolutely no GOR...which is what Aresco wants.

 

[Dooley]

No they cared about geography. The addition of RU allowed them to charge a premium to all of the NY DMA, including CT, plus and extra household in NJ but out of the NY DMA. For reference CT has @3M people, NJ has about 9M.

It really didn't matter what the RU product was. Geography made there addition profitable.

I think we're saying the same thing but you said it MUCH MUCH MUCH better than I did (as usual).

Market potential.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[junglehusky]

 

[LoyalFanCT]

Is UConn actually considering joining the Big East? OMG. Where would football go? Does it try the UMass route as an independent?

 

[junglehusky]

Is UConn actually considering joining the Big East? OMG. Where would football go? Does it try the UMass route as an independent?

Welcome to the conference realignment board.

 

[billybud]

Is UConn actually considering joining the Big East? OMG. Where would football go? Does it try the UMass route as an independent?

Why yes...UConn administration have contacted the Jesuits as well as the Vatican Consular office about the possible use of St. Constantius....sounds more like one of the boys.

 

[bobbyinaz]

Lost in all of this talk about GOR is the fact that all indications are the next deal will be $6-8MM per year on the high side. And that is with the entire league signing a GOR.

For everyone thinking/wishing/hoping that Aresco would deliver a higher number, it appears that's not going to be the case

 

[LoyalFanCT]

If UConn does go Big East, I have one far-fetched suggestion. Feel free to destroy it. See if UConn could create a new football conference which would resemble the Ivy League with stronger academics among its members. Here are the members: Army, Navy, Air Force, Rice, Tulane, SMU, UConn, Buffalo, and UMass. There would be three sets of rivalries and would be some of the top academic schools in the nation. It could hold UConn until the ACC or B10 came calling. I like it better than the MAC or independence.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Lost in all of this talk about GOR is the fact that all indications are the next deal will be $6-8MM per year on the high side. And that is with the entire league signing a GOR.

For everyone thinking/wishing/hoping that Aresco would deliver a higher number, it appears that's not going to be the case

I believe that the article said the next deal could be 3-4 times the current one, which is more like $8-10M. Also remember, WSU does not get a full share, nor does Navy.

If UConn retains its WBB revenue, we should be over $10m, which is more than double what we would make in the Big East.

 

[billybud]

I wonder...

If a couple of programs decline to sign a GOR...what's the AAC to do?

Tell UCF, as an example, "we are giving you two year's notice to find another conference"?

Says Brer Rabbitt, "Oh please, please, do not throw me into the briar patch".

 

[huskymedic]

Jeff Jacobs @jeffjacobs123 21 minutes ago
Just talked to AAC commissioner Mike Aresco: No plans for unequal distribution of media rights money.

 

[billybud]

Aresco double speaks as well as Swofford...

"This whole business of grant-of-rights is very poorly understood, generally," Aresco explained. "It doesn't mean schools can't move, it just means their TV rights go with them. What it means, Dave, is that if someone leaves, their TV rights remain with the conference where they once were. If your TV deal is with X network, it stays. Every game you play in that other conference that's a home game stays with the conference you left. Whatever TV deal that was. That's a strong incentive for schools not to leave. It doesn't mean you're bound, period. That's not the kind of situation that it would be."

Okkkk? You aren't bound...but your TV rights for home games stay with the conference after you leave.

I get it...you are free to leave and toss the shackles...if you knaw off your feet.

 

[bobbyinaz]

I believe that the article said the next deal could be 3-4 times the current one, which is more like $8-10M. Also remember, WSU does not get a full share, nor does Navy.

If UConn retains its WBB revenue, we should be over $10m, which is more than double what we would make in the Big East.

I am not, nor have I ever been an advocate of going back to the Big East.

I was just saying that there are many Pollyanna's on the BY that have been saying that Aresco will get $12-15MM/year per school when the reality is that it will likely be closer to half that.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Aresco denying the GOR makes it seem like he thinks he has a strong hand, since he is taking it off the table from the networks so it can be a final concession.

There is the typical logical incoherence in this thread of the "stay in the AAC" and "ESPN is wonderful" posters saying that the AAC won't get paid squat by ESPN.

I could see this deal ending up in a "Zone of Death" of like $5 to $7 million per school which will seem like enough to keep football relevant, but really won't be. UConn will sign a GOR, and put the final nail in the coffin of the athletic program.

UConn needs a number that enables it to be competitive, like $10MM a year, or for this conference to get $2 million a year, in which case the decision on the football program and the conference is easy. Anything in the middle would be the worst outcome.

 

[billybud]

Money....

You need lots of it....for football. And UConn, even in the best football scenario, will most likely not end up a perennially ranked team.

But...money may not be not be as crucial for basketball.

UConn can have football go to hell...but can not afford basketball to wither.

The further that past accomplishments recede, the less UConn will be on the mind of elite college seniors. The Huskies must stay "relevant" in the minds of recruits.

If bigger money schools continue to grow their basketball programs, and UConn does not....the fight back gets longer.

 

[Hoophound]

Money....

You need lots of it....for football. And UConn, even in the best football scenario, will most likely not end up a perennially ranked team.

But...money may not be not be as crucial for basketball.

UConn can have football go to hell...but can not afford basketball to wither.

The further that past accomplishments recede, the less UConn will be on the mind of elite college seniors. The Huskies must stay "relevant" in the minds of recruits.

If bigger money schools continue to grow their basketball programs, and UConn does not....the fight back gets longer.

No worries on basketball. We'll be back in no time.

 

[huskymedic]

Jeff Jacobs: As AAC rumors swirl, everything must be on the table for UConn

>>“The report wasn’t accurate in key areas,” American commissioner Mike Aresco said Tuesday. “I don’t know where this stuff comes from. We haven’t asked our schools for anything at this point. We’re in the preliminary stages of important negotiation. Our formal period starts next year. We’re discussing a lot of things.”<<

>>“I don’t know where the emphasis on grant-of-rights came from,” Aresco said. “It’s one way where conferences deal with this kind of thing. Conference composition is another. I have no idea where we’re going to go with this. It may not be an issue at all.”

Is it fair to say grant-of-rights and conference composition would be among the things discussed? “Absolutely,” Aresco said. “They’ll be discussed. But this thing made it sound like it’s all or nothing and that’s not the situation.”<<'

>>“I don’t see it,” Aresco said on unequal distribution. “I think the majority of our schools will agree with me. I firmly support our current policy of equal revenue sharing. We don’t have entirely equal sharing right now because of the money left over from the old Big East. UConn, Cincinnati and USF were responsible for a lot of that.

“But as we move forward our plan has always been equal sharing of revenue. Unequal sharing is not who we are. We turned down Boise when they were ready to join. They said they wanted a special deal, they wanted more revenue than the others and we said no. I felt that was the foundation of our conference.”<<

 

[DarthGrumpy]

The likely scenario is the Big 12 poaching Arizona and ASU. Essentially, being a west coast conference kills the Pac12 because their ratings are in the toilet with 10 pm ET primetime games for their national tv broadcasts. Since Arizona is in the mountain time zone (2 hours behind the east coast) they can afford to play in the Central Time Zone with Big 12 schools. Yeah, they'll play a lot of 8pm ET/7pm CT/6pm MT games, but that's better than bad ratings playing at 8pm MT games.

Pac12 would then probably poach 2-4 from the Mountain West and completely devalue their conference (not that the Arizona schools add much, but still more than any current MW team). Probably combo of Fresno, Boise, Nevada, UNLV. Mountain West poaches WAC and so it goes out in the Wild Wild West.

Big 12 stabilizes itself (although WVU would take this opportunity to negotiate a move to the ACC, especially if ND committed full time) leaving an open Big 12 spot for potentially a Houston or even Cincy over UConn (or more if they want to go to 16). Pitt gets their old friend back, and they add a premier football program (along with ND of course) which the conference needs badly, but bball not good enough to upset he folks in Tobacco Road.

Long story short, we are stuck in the AAC unless the Big 10 takes us and probably Cincy (c'mon Warde, flex that muscle) since the other P5s are moving to 16 teams. SEC probably would stay at 14 since they wouldn't want more mouths to feed, unless it was Texas/OU (the two of which would never leave the Big 12 since they're the top dogs in the conference and have all political leverage).

No matter how bad the PAC TV thing is gone, I can't picture the Arizona schools leaving the PAC. They draw too many of their athletes and students from California.

 

[junglehusky]

.... Aaaaaaaaaaand UCF is (in the mind of this writer at least) ahead of UConn if the ACC expands. F$#=ing great.

 

[Fishy]

The American won’t involve a grant of rights.

There’s no network and no investment being made - there’s nothing that would need to be secured by a grant of rights. There’s no correlation between a GOR and the amount of money the conference should be paid....like the current contract, there would be a reduction clause if schools should leave.

There’s no chance of an unequal revenue sharing scheme. There’s no metric that says that any school is more likely to be poached than another and even if there was, paying one schools $6M and another $4M won’t stop either from jumping if the chance arrives.

And to further kick sand on the article, one of the schools posited as a potential expansion target, Memphis, was specifically uninvited from making a presentation to the Big 12. They have no potential for expansion.

 

[Drew]

I posted a separate thread on the football board but the best news the AAC could get for its TV deal is the playoff going to 8 and a guaranteed G5 spot. Works out really well that these conversations are going to be happening while the AAC is negotiating its TV deal.