A statistical look at the nation’s freshmen | The Boneyard

A statistical look at the nation’s freshmen

You always find the most interesting post on stats and comments to show us (and get me thinking). Kudos to you! That said I am not sure what to make of those three categories. “Adjusted” stats are just that -adjusted.
How often is the player truly effective and utilized for their team to win.

I say that as I am a bit tired of the Jazzy narrative as that team is average. To me Blanca, Galvin and Chavez are by far more impactful and important to their team success as those teams ARE HAVING SUCCESS, than those that post numbers in mediocre team results. Gal in in particular has been a revelation as an unranked player and how phenomenal Vandy has played.

I just hope Blanca’s shoulder is good to go on Sunday to pit two of the list’s freshmen on the court together to assess. Let’s see how Pauldo handles KK and K9 on her and how the LV front court can solve the Blanca puzzle….

Keep these reposts coming as they are always insightful.
 
I think it's appropriate to treat the word "adjusted" as a red flag. In some cases it's perfectly appropriate in some cases it's sketchy. In this particular case, it adjusts for the possibility that if player A , a strong player, is on the court often with player B, a weak player, their plus minus might be depressed. The adjustment attempts to adjust for that, but I don't see an easy way to explain the math in a way that intuitively explains what's going on.

RegularizedAdjustedPlusMinus
 
.-.
Blanca is the best freshman in the country. She impacts the game in so many ways when she enters halfway through the first quarter. She immediately is the double-teamer on whoever gets the inbound pass. She creates so many turnovers. She changes the energy level and we usually start to surge past the other team immediately. What has surprised me so far is how good of a three point shooter she is.
 
jabstep said:
Blanca is the best freshman in the country. She impacts the game in so many ways when she enters halfway through the first quarter. She immediately is the double-teamer on whoever gets the inbound pass. She creates so many turnovers. She changes the energy level and we usually start to surge past the other team immediately. What has surprised me so far is how good of a three point shooter she is.
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And we aren't seeing anything near the finished product with her as a collegian.
 
I will say I was “watching” Chavez with a skeptical eye but her performance against SC in OT was mighty impressive so I now deem her as the 3rd best freshman behind Blanca and Aubrey Galvin…two much less heralded prospects… 🤓
 
On the issue of bad collinearity (a strong player playing with a weak player(s) most of the time) (Post #2) rendering the adjusted portion of RAPM suspect, that shouldn’t be the case for these top freshmen on some of the top teams.

Blanca’s RAPM is more impressive because she only plays 19.6 MPG, only half of which are with the best rotations (Winning Time Rotations).
  • The player she plays the most with is Azzi at around 64% of the time (she plays with Sarah at 58% of the time).
  • ORAPM and DRAPM are with reference the average team PPP (points per possession). Blanca’s ORAPM is understandably lower than Azzi’s (Azzi only plays with the better rotations), but her DRAPM (depressing the opponent’s PPP) is higher.
Galvan who plays 33.2 MPG plays mostly (around 80%) with Mikayla Blakes (33 MPG).

Blanca’s Rotations:
IMG_6911.jpeg
 
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