A comparison of the worth of Rutgers as compared to UConn to the Big Ten Network

[Rumrunner]

The NYC DMA has 21,000,000 people and 7.8 million census households, and 7.3 million television households, according to Nielsen. It is composed of 29 counties total in New York, CT (Fairfield), New Jersey (13), and Penn (Pike County).

The New York part of the DMA including NYC, Long Island, and northern NYC counties has 4.9 million households.

The southwestern Connecticut portion of the DMA contains 332,000 households, 299,000 television households.

New Jersey has 21 counties, of which 13 are included in the DMA.
The total number of television households in New Jersey is 3,414,000 according to the dclgroup.com
The New Jersey portion of the NYC DMA contains 2,400,000 households, 2,160,000 television households. The New Jersey portion of the Philadelphia DMA contains 1,014,000 television households.


Rutgers impact on the BTN
The following assumes that in New York City proper, i.e., Manhattan, the other four boroughs, as well as the rest of New York state in the NYC DMA, that Rutgers' and UConn's influence and likely impact on the Big Ten's attempt at carriage are the same. ( My hunch is that this isn't the case, and that UConn's brand is superior in the five boroughs and Long Island, especially as it concerns content for 365 days a year, and not just 12 weekends in the fall). I don't really know how the BTN is going to sell Rutgers in the city and Long Island. That's the first big assumption, the Five Boroughs Assumption.

Rutgers' impact on the BTN's carriage negotiations is not known in the city, but it should be stronger obviously in New Jersey, and this is where things get interesting. Following are the numbers assuming different subscriber fees. The BTN gets an average $.80/subscriber in footprint states, and $.10 in nonfootprint states. What leverage will the BTN have with the cable companies in New Jersey? The second big assumption that I make is that the appetite to watch UConn in Connecticut is greater than the appetite to watch Rutgers in New Jersey.

This is based on UConn's clear captivation of the state. Hello, Warde. The men's and women's basketball team have disparate followers. Those who demand to watch the men are a different audience, and hence, a different potential subscriber, than those who watch the girls. Football probably shares a large proportion of the fan base with men's basketball, but undeniably there are potential football subscribers who aren't basketball fans. Also, men's and women's basketball draws well, and are consistently in the top 15 in the nation in attendance. Football attendance has seen a decline, ostensibly due, in no particular order, to the quality of the product, the economy, and the coaching staff's attempt to turn the Rent into their personal retirement home. Moreover, UConn's brand and worth in the state have been monetized by a network already, SNY. SNY's addition of a second Connecticut feed affirms this assumption. (It is also ironic that UConn's agreement with SNY just for women's basketball exceeds the likely payout of the Catholic 7's stand alone tv deal and is greater than the men's A10 deal, more than $1 million annually). Additionally, UConn has one of the most lucrative media rights agreement in the country with IMG. That agreement, encompassing sponsorship, radio, etc. dwarfs by a factor of 10 Rutgers' media rights deal, and pays out more $10 million a year. The UConn brand is so strong in Connecticut that Webster Bank just recently saw fit to strike what is rumored to be one of the most lucrative single entity sponsorship agreements ever with a university. As for UConn's national appeal, UConn's $45 million agreement with Nike is a tangible testament to that.

To the numbers.

Northern New Jersey portion of DMA
2,400,000 households, 2.16m television households
$.10 per subscriber=$216,000/month
$.40 per subscriber=$864,00/month
$.60 per subscriber=$1,296,000/month
$.80 per subscriber=$1,728,000/month

Compare to UConn and the Fairfield County portion of the NYC DMA.
Here, I am going to use three numbers. But first let me explain my reasoning. I don't know what the BTN would be able to command , so I will assume it will be at least equal to the BTN average; then I will assume $1.60, the average of the BTN footprint average and SNY's current charge of $2.40 per subscriber; and finally SNY's rate of $2.40.

Connecticut portion of NYC DMA
332,000 households, 299,000 television
299,000*.80=$239,200
299,000*$1.60=$478,400
299,000*2.40=$717,600

Will the BTN command 50% of its average in northern New Jersey? Just from looking at the carriage fight that the BTN had in Philly, that number is optimistic. And even at that number, it is about what the BTN would get for UConn in Fairfield County. $864,000 versus $717,000.

The numbers for the southern New Jersey portion of the Philly DMA
1,014,000 television households
1,014,000*.10=$101,400/month
1,014,000*.40=$405,600/month
1,014,000*.60=$608,400/month
1,014,000*.80=$911,200/month


Hartford-New Haven DMA
Number of television households:
Nielsen says 995,000 television households
995,000*.80=$796,000/month
995,000*1.60=$1,592,000/month
995,000*2.40=$2,388,000/month

Rutgers Total
Northern NJ portion of NYC DMA and southern NJ portion of Philly DMA
216,000+101,400=$317,400/month
864,000+405,600=$1,269,600/month
1,296,000+608,400=1,904,400/month
1,728,000+911,200=$2,639,200/month

UConn Total
Southwest CT portion of NYC DMA and Hartford-New Haven
239,200+796,000=$1,035,200/month
478,400+1,592,000=$2,070,000/month
717,600+2,388,000=3,100,000/month

So in a nutshell, if you take out the five boroughs and Long Island, UConn is more valuable to the Big Ten Network than Rutgers. As for how Delany expects the Big Ten Network to be received in New York City's five boroughs and Long Island? I seriously doubt that he will attempt to do so with one hand tied behind his back, which is what he would be facing with just Rutgers.

The Big Ten also makes money off of advertising, something close to 20% of its revenue.

As for national cable subscribers and whether UConn is more valuable there? At some point diluted content won't fly. UConn has a brand. Increasingly in football (10 years into the FBS subdivision and already two Big East championships and a BCS game. That's remarkable. Additionally, plans exist for an expansion of Rentschler Field to over 50,000 seats, as well as preliminary designs of an on-campus stadium first made when UConn was considering the FBS upgrade.) The brand is undeniable in basketball.

As for those who think that only football content matters, perhaps if you're the ACC schools and were forced through your commissioner to reward cronyism and Raycom, it does. But just as baseball is seeing blockbuster deals (Fox Sports, the same partner with the Big Ten has been very active there), what is king is having content that people want to watch and are willing to pay for. UConn's home state is blessed as being one of the most affluent in the country. It's willingness to pay for UConn content is not subject to debate. The Big Ten Network is a 365 day network. It would be well-served having a NYC area team that has a proven track record of delivering with results, not speculation.




TVN and Nielsen showing Hartford-New Haven DMA
http://www.tvnewscheck.com/tv-station-directory/station/wtic-tv
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=hartford dma nielsen&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDoQFjAC&url=http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/corporate/us/en/public%20factsheets/tv/2012-2013%20DMA%20Ranks.pdf&ei=NQPMUL_SLMqFywGqlYGAAg&usg=AFQjCNGi5qTPnYYTOONW5bhDOut-qP1dwA

There is conflicting data about the average that the BTN receives. One other source indicates the BTN receives $.97 in footprint states and $.06 nationally, but most cite $.80 and $.10.

 

[Dann]

i suspect u could do the same with uva and md and come to the conclusion that the b10 needs to double down on dc and nyc to gain them and in doing so it also gets 2 more states falgship schools and tv eye balls. great job with this rum!

md bring the state plus get into dc and also dont undervalue mds reach to a certain extent in phili.
ruty bring nj, it also reaches well into nyc in the fall and phili also.
the b10 just grabbed 2 states, greatly improved its phili cable boxes and also got into dc and nyc somewhat.

uva and uconn could be icing on the cake. it double down in dc and nyc. both uva and uconn have great other sports that are followed hard core. uva bball may not be uconn but its not far off. its recent slump is not a factor in that imho.

does a school like unc have better value than uconn? yes, but for the b10 certain types of value are most important. i wonder what capturing nyc+southern new england gets the b10 vs the state of norty cary. maybe we are more value then we think....

we should be ahead of cuse in this race but who truly knows...bc is a whole different angle that then is a game changer if the b10 is actually interested in boston. its tuff to tell right now but we shall see soon.

 

[Rumrunner]

I think that is where he is going because of that. The one thing that gives me pause about UVA is potentially delivering VaTech to the SEC. Does Delany go toe to toe with Slive? The Big Ten does not compete in a state, slight exception of Iowa, Penn State and the ND issue. But there pitt is a weak stepchild to psu, and iowa state to iowa. But Delany is enamored with NYC.

And now that MSG might be opened up for a conference tourney...Remember too that the b1g wants the pinstripe bowl.

July, 2010
http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/...250486/Big-Ten-Network-bonanza?nclick_check=1

"If the Big Ten were to expand east and get its network on basic cable in New York City, it would instantly receive 70 cents from 7.5 million subscribers - per month, and regardless of whether any of them actually watch or not.

That's why Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star recently called the Big Ten Network "one of the greatest forces in college sports today."

"With the benefit of hindsight, their strategy worked perfectly," Ourand said of Delany, Silverman and Co. "There's no way you can question it."


A repeat from dec 6, but always good:

"Demographics matter," Delany said. "I think it matters to be in New Jersey and Maryland and around D.C., Philadelphia and New York. It matters to us for it to be contiguous. It matters for it to be flagship universities."

From Nov. 20

Delany said the Big Ten has approximately 540,000 alumni between northern Virginia and southern New England.

i suspect u could do the same with uva and md and come to the conclusion that the b10 needs to double down on dc and nyc to gain them and in doing so it also gets 2 more states falgship schools and tv eye balls. great job with this.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

The x factor in all of this stuff is that everyone is chasing these northeast markets, NYC being the crown jewel. The thing that some of these people don't get is college football is not and will never be sport #1 at any point during its season in the NYC metro area. The only way possible is if both the Mets and Yankees go through multi-year periods of complete garbage (the Mets are already there...), and both the Jets and Giants do the same. EVEN THEN, those teams will still garner the majority of the attention since there's nothing NYC sports fans love to do more than watch their teams lose then call up sports radio and yell about it.

College football in NYC is a 100% uphill battle to get any kind of ratings on a consistent basis. Last week, pre-Heisman, conference realignment stories abound, the national championship all set after Bama-UGA, and the ND storyline, 75% of all WFAN talk was NFL, and they even spent multiple hour long segments of Yankee fans calling in complaining about the Yankees ending their partnership with Stubhub and how that will affect ticket sales. These people simply don't care about college football.

I've always suspected the lack of a relevant postseason being one of the major factors. NYC fans, and Northeast sports fans in general, like to watch playoff games - that's what we're programmed to from all of the pro sports. They don't buy into this BS about, oh, but we can get the great bowl experience by going to the Belk Bowl!!!!! They want playoff games that matter and have excitement, not irrelevant bragging rights "postseason" games that count for nothing. Maybe if it expanded to a true playoff system, it might lure some in.

But at some level, I just think all of this drooling over NYC and the Northeast is a bit of a fool's mission for these commissioners and they're going to find out on 10-15 years when local cable companies say, sorry, we'll only pay you $0.15 per subscriber for your B1G Network, or SEC Network, or ACC Network, or whatever, while ESPN is still raking in $4.00+ per subscriber on Cablevision by showing MLB and NFL games.

 

[uconNYC]

Email it to Delany (cc. Herbst and the Rockstar)

 

[mattp]

One thing that helps us for the B1G is that by basically putting their chips on a TV channel, they need programming year round. I can't imagine that too many people are going to want to watch a Minnesota/Illinois match up from 2010 all year round so they need live programming for the FB off season. Sure it's great that they have a few games that people want to watch (and if you've seen the games they actually show on BTN they're really no better than the BE GotW match ups on SNY) but they need of offer year round programming if they want people to pay for this channel in NYC and elsewhere.

A big reason why people in B1G states are willing to pay .80/month for BTN is because they watch other BTN sports and have interest in other BTN teams. Believe it or not a lot of people in NYC are going to be watching soccer when the BTN is running their Indiana vs Toledo game. Personally I don't think the average NJ cable viewer even cares about the two Rutgers FB games they'll miss without the BTN much less a PSU/Michigan volleyball match or BTN hockey game. On the other hand, Connecticut fans have shown they'll support the programs outside of FB. We'd also provide them with some decent FB off season programming.

 

[Stinger92860]

Thank so much for a well written post. I need something to focus on other than the tragedy surrounding us.

If you don't mind, I'd like to poke at some of your numbers and assertions in an effort to test your hypothesis. Once the information is firm and if UConn favorable, would you please provide this information to someone at UConn, a blogger or 2, the horde and the guy from WVA. Maybe start your own blog, which everyone would follow and start a tweet storm have it recognized.

My take:

- NYC Proper: From a basketball perspective, the UConn brand exceeds Rutgers. We have had a number of key recruits and big time players from this area. This include womens basketball. When was the last time RU went deep in the BET?

For football, I think both are equal and frankly the impact is negligible. NYC is a pro football town. No one can argue otherwise. The only interest if college football is for betting. Even with Syracuse the amount of interest/revenue is negligible.

That said, play a game at Metife or Yankee Stadium against Michigan or Ohio state, then that becomes a big time event, but the effect will be temporary. We should offer to every conference that we will play games at MetLife/Yankee Stadium plus the Garden/Brooklyn. Let's offer the same to ND every year, plus we can play in Gillette/Boston Garden. For Hockey, winter classic games at the Rent with the hockey powers, including BC.

- Your assumption that the appetite for UConn content in CT is greater than Rutger's content in NJ is correct, I believe. I have lived in NJ and CT. Northern Jersey is an extension of NYC. It is dominated by Pro Football. Both the Jets and Giants are New Jersey teams. As you said ...SNY's addition of a second Connecticut feed affirms this assumption.....

Question: What are UConn's total tier 3 yearly revenue for all sports? What are the projections based on current contracts?

- Connecticut portion of NYC DMA

Are you assuming 100% penetration in CT and 50% in NJ? I could see CT in the 60-80% range and NJ in the 20-40 range. Again, NYC/NJ is a pro sports town. As I think about it, the Red Bulls may get more ink than Rutgers.

Is there the possibility of a 50% rate? Won't the cable companies have to charge for everyone? If so, it may make sense the use the rate as the variable, as the content is more valuable to CT subscribers than NJ subscribers?

Total TV households:

In the NJ footprint => 3.4M (north + south),with an understanding that souther NJ is Philly focuses (Eagles, Flyer, Phillies, etc.) and lots of Yankee fans

In the CT Footprint => 1.3M

I think you may need to add the Springfield DMA. Is that already included?

So based on the numbers it appears that to be EQUAL to Rutgers the cost of the content would need to be 3X in CT. Personally I'd have no problem paying more than 2.40 for this content.

 

[Stinger92860]

Also, what other College could leverage multiple large markets and multiple professional venues (NYC, Boston). Someone help me here.

Who would turn down a game with us at Gillette, MetLife , Fenway or Yankee stadium. We may not like it, but lets get 1-2 gams a year on the books. Let's start with Michigan, maybe not next year, but follow on years. Let's offer ND. I don't care that USC/Cuse only had 40K in the Stadium, it was on ABC. Let's offer USC a game at Yankee stadium if we are worried about empty seats. PSU at Metlife would also fly. We have lot's of options.

Can we do this for bball beyond ND? After the break, we play St Johns at the Garden. Maybe a double header with the Women playing a national team.

If we get these games in NYC/Boston, no one can deny our value.

Extreme times call for extreme actions.

 

[CTEagle]

Would that illustrate UConn's value or the nationally known opponent's?

 

[CTMike]

I like your comment about the Springfield DMA... just another litle nugget to consider in all this. Another example of needing to show how our reach is broad, not narrow.

 

[Rumrunner]

Poke and prod, and correct away. The numbers should be "good enough for gov't work" good, but if any are bad I'll correct, or if debatable, I'll amend.

The aggregate Connecticut DMA uses the Hartford-New Haven DMA, and sw ct DMA.
Nice picture/map here https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...rGpVzI&sig=AHIEtbQg4DHycKKBeUrTJzScFOhmXW7UWA

I did not factor in the springfield DMA, which is 263,000 households, consisting of:

Remember that cable companies, while their systems extend across state lines, are regulated at the fed level, which then in turn mandates state regulation. I confined the data above to just the states of Connecticut and New Jersey.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

The thing that some of these people don't get is college football is not and will never be sport #1 at any point during its season in the NYC metro area.

If what you say is true, please explain why the Empire gnikcvf State Building was bathed in Rutgers scarlet a few seasons ago. For good reason New York City considers itself a winner. What they never have and probably never will embrace is losers.

 

[huskymedic]

If what you say is true, please explain why the Empire gnikcvf State Building was bathed in Rutgers scarlet a few seasons ago. For good reason New York City considers itself a winner. What they never have and probably never will embrace is losers.

Few seasons ago?... few weeks ago!

PISCATAWAY, N.J. (November 27, 2012) – The world-famous Empire State Building (ESB) will be lit red Thursday night in support of Rutgers’ BIG EAST Championship football game vs. Louisville at High Point Solutions Stadium. It marks the second time the Empire State Building has been lit red for Rutgers Football. The other occasion was Rutgers’ 28-25 victory over Louisville in 2006 in a matchup of undefeated teams.

 

[Rumrunner]

One thing that I need to state is that from a strategic point of view, adding Rutgers before UConn made more sense.

As I've stated a bunch of times, I'm sure that the Philly problem of the Big Ten Network has caused much consterbpnation and excel column manipulations in Park Ridge.

Philadelphia's demographics combined with its pro-sports predilection still makes the Philly market a tough nut to crack, not to mention that it is home to Comcast. (The legal difficulties that cable companies face and RSN's gamesmanship are a constant focus for cable companies). It was Mark Silverman, just this past July 26, 2012, who said his network was still having difficulties in the philky/eastern Penn market. He claimed it was Pennsylvania was the only state in the BTN that doesn't have 90% penetration.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...-hOX_c&sig=AHIEtbRly1HapoiBy2Oca7xmXe1LzB66aQ

So I imagine that MD's reach up from the Baltimore-Philly corridor, combined with Rutgers' presence in the Philly DMA, had Silverman convinced that the adds would help get Penn penetration to 90%. That, combined with Rutgers' New Jersey potential perhaps would have been enough to add Rutgers. But the BTN, as seen from several years ago, still looks at the NYC DMA, and by that I mean the entire DMA, including the northern NJ (Rutgers) portion, the city, long island and sw Connecticut (UConn) as a viable market.

And for the same reason that Penn State didn't give the BTN penetration into eastern Penn to the same extent as the rest of BTN footprint, that concern is magnified when it comes to the 5,000,000 tv households not in New Jersey. And if Delaney needed to give PSU a carriage bump by helping out in Philadelphia by adding Rutgers and Maryland, what is Delaney's plan for NYC? Do you believe he and Silvermab are going to sit down with cable and show them Rutgers' reach into the city? That would be absurd.

As for Fox's stake in the Yes network playing a role, I'm sure it will. But the BTN still will need to prove content to cable. Thus enters UConn, especially as noted above UConn on paper will be as lucrative as Rutgers without the NYC/Five Boroughs factor.

One thing that I have wondered is what other steps could Delany take to improve carriage negotiations in the NYC DMA? Sometimes there are no perfect answers, only best ones. Here, would Syracuse help in this aspect? Especially combined with UConn to triple team carriage negotiations?

Two problems-institutional profile and home market/footprint. With respect to institutional profile, Syracuse is not a flagship school (Delany specifically referenced flagship while in NYC two weeks ago), and has nor never again will i be a member of the AAU. (UConn is a flagship, is academically strong, will before the next decade be AAU, and is a top us news public (Michigan's president used that designation when welcoming MD last month, not its AAU designation)). Also, take a look at Syracuse's student body profile versus that of Boston Univ or NYU. Even UConn, for that matter. Look at the trajectory. UConn and BU up, Syracuse down. Institutionally Syracuse is like Connecticut's textile or ball bearing industries. Inexorably on the decline.

With respect to market profile, Syracuse is in central New York. It's DMA is 377,000 households. See something there? That's not a whole lot more than just UConn's sw CT market of 300,000. For as many of its alums and fans that come to MSG, cable companies in NYC aren't going to buy that equals subscriber value. So if Delany adds Syracuse he is betting purely on Syracuse's brand to boost the NYC leverage. That is a gamble, and a bad gamble at that.

I know that I have made many of these same arguments as before. Just keep the faith, believe in UConn, believe in its leadership, and believe most if all in the power of greed.

 

[Dann]

wc/pk are also good markets we carry. wc is in the nyc dma but is pk? that may be a added bonus to the #'s.

 

[Rumrunner]

The numbers above don't include any of NY state. There is definitely monetary value there if UConn is added.

Heres's nyc dma map

 

[Stinger92860]

Would that illustrate UConn's value or the nationally known opponent's?

Both. There has to be value for both teams.

 

[Stinger92860]

Few seasons ago?... few weeks ago!

PISCATAWAY, N.J. (November 27, 2012) – The world-famous Empire State Building (ESB) will be lit red Thursday night in support of Rutgers’ BIG EAST Championship football game vs. Louisville at High Point Solutions Stadium. It marks the second time the Empire State Building has been lit red for Rutgers Football. The other occasion was Rutgers’ 28-25 victory over Louisville in 2006 in a matchup of undefeated teams.

6 years between lighting's. You understand they do this every night, yes?

 

[RegisteredUconn]

6 years between lighting's. You understand they do this every night, yes?

Grinch

 

[huskymedic]

If what you say is true, please explain why the Empire gnikcvf State Building was bathed in Rutgers scarlet a few seasons ago. For good reason New York City considers itself a winner. What they never have and probably never will embrace is losers.

Few seasons ago?... few weeks ago!

PISCATAWAY, N.J. (November 27, 2012) – The world-famous Empire State Building (ESB) will be lit red Thursday night in support of Rutgers’ BIG EAST Championship football game vs. Louisville at High Point Solutions Stadium. It marks the second time the Empire State Building has been lit red for Rutgers Football. The other occasion was Rutgers’ 28-25 victory over Louisville in 2006 in a matchup of undefeated teams.

6 years between lighting's. You understand they do this every night, yes?

They light it red every night for Rutgers?

Geez - I must have been mistaken when I saw it Red, White and Blue a few times....

 

[WestCoastHusky]

They light it red every night for Rutgers?

Geez - I must have been mistaken when I saw it Red, White and Blue a few times....

I am pretty sure they light up whatever color for teams in town. During the Yankee Bowl, they will light the building colors of the two teams that will be playing.

 

[SaeHusky]

I vote for Rumrunner to replace Warde

 

[Stinger92860]

I am pretty sure they light up whatever color for teams in town. During the Yankee Bowl, they will light the building colors of the two teams that will be playing.

The change colors every night, meaning a different theme every night. Sorry, thought everyone knew this.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

I vote for Rumrunner to replace Warde

+1. That's the kind of analysis should be in front of B1G officials. I hope we got guys in the athletic department who can do this. I hope WM knows how to present this to the right people.

 

[Rumrunner]

The back of an envelope analysis done here most likely has been done much more formally, much more rigidly, and by the best in the business that UConn could afford. It's the assumptions that UConn needs to sell. E.g., with BTN content plus UConn, how does that compare to SNY with Mets content plus UConn? As you recede from Fairfield County, I doubt that it matters, but I'm sure UConn's consultants know the number and depth of Mets fan county by county. They also should know the elasticity of UConn demand. Paradoxically, the fact that the average UConn fan is better educated and more affluent than the average BTN subscriber in footprint states, while being lazier, means the UConn fan will pay more for less content.

Here is a picture of the battle that the Big Ten Network will be fighting in New Jersey. Comcast and Cablevision loathe being forced to carry rsn's on extended basic. And of course, those two are the dominant cable companies in New Jersey. This battle is to just get Rutgers carried in that state, never mind NYC, Long Island, and the Hudson River Valley. That little slice of red is Time Warner, who kept the the Knicks off the air during the height of Linsanity for over 7 weeks durings its dispute with MSG. To reiterate eastern Pennsylvania has the lowest carriage penetration of any area in the Big Ten Network footprint, in spite of Penn State University's popularity. NYC with just Rutgers will be brutal.

In contrast, it took only a week or so for Connecticut cable companies to agree to carry UConn on extended basic, and before any games began. That is lightening fast and did not use any missed-game blackmail/leverage. Can you imagine what was left on the table that Silverman would be able to get?

http://articles.courant.com/2010-09...gyveresi-sportsnet-new-york-cable-subscribers