7 Seed Still In Play | Page 2 | The Boneyard

7 Seed Still In Play

Scrutineer said:
Agreed. The double OT might be a big factor with their lack of depth.........look how Villanova simply died in the last five minutes last night.
We just don't want any Kemba-like performances by any of their key players.
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I don't recall two teams fade as hard as SH and Nova have in the past two games. We weren't even playing lights out, it just kind of happened. Those kids needed a reminder that there is NIL money on the line!
 
Brochacho said:
I want to play a Big Ten team badly. Whether it is MSU/Wisconsin on the 2 line or Maryland/Purdue on the 3 (doubt we rise to 6): feed me Big Ten teams.
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Let's rethink that: "I want to play a Big Ten team badly":rolleyes:

Let's crush them and remind the world that that league hasn't won a championship since 2000 and UConn alone has won five since then.
 
I think we have to win BET to move up, and not even sure beating Marquette would get us there. We may have to beat SJU.
 
ctbro1999 said:
Athletic currently has us playing in the 8/9 game out West (Florida opposite us). I wouldn't mind going out west. We've always had good results out there.
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"Out West" only matters if we beat the #1 seed and make the Sweet 16.

For what it's worth, I wouldn't hate a matchup with Florida if we end up on the #8/9 line. That said, we'd have to win the coin flip game first.
 
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Gutter King said:
I don't recall two teams fade as hard as SH and Nova have in the past two games. We weren't even playing lights out, it just kind of happened. Those kids needed a reminder that there is NIL money on the line!
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I feel like last night was the worst a UConn team has played against a good team while still winning by 17.
 
Mostly, I see us in Florida's bracket as an 8 not in Duke's.

That said, I think a large body of people show Creighton as the last 7 and U-C-O-N-N as the first 8 meaning if we beat Creighton we 'took their jarb". Then if we win the BET we might bump to a 6.

We are on a bender now! Post-season record over last 3 seasons running at 16-0:
  • 2022-2023: 6 in a row
  • 2023-2024: 9 in a row including BET.
  • 2024-2025: 1 in a row...so far....
 
My gut tells me that the committee has us as a seven at the moment, primarily because they won't want to have a one seed have to worry about having to play us this early.

My guess is we currently are the last seven, but if we win tonight we'll be penciled in as a seven where they can quickly flip us to a six (and move the penciled in six to a seven) if we win the BET.

Regardless, I'm not worried. If they do give us an eight seed, the one will need to prepare for two allegedly equal possibilites in round two, and have little time to prepare for our offense. For an opponent who doesn't know us, we will be a lot more difficult to face on a two day turnaround than with four or five days to prepare.
 
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FfldCntyFan said:
My gut tells me that the committee has us as a seven at the moment, primarily because they won't want to have a one seed have to worry about having to play us this early.

My guess is we currently are the last seven, but if we win tonight we'll be penciled in as a seven where they can quickly flip us to a six (and move the penciled in six to a seven) if we win the BET.

Regardless, I'm not worried. If they do give us an eight seed, the one will need to prepare for two allegedly equal possibilites in round two, and have little time to prepare for our offense. For an opponent who doesn't know us, we will be a lot more difficult to face on a two day turnaround than with four or five days to prepare.
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If we can't escape the 8/9 game no matter what, honestly, I want to be put in Duke's region.
 
We're not sniffing a 6 seed no matter what. Even if we win the BET, the laziness of the committee still could hold us at 8. If we get to the 7, were likely the "worst" of the sevens playing the best 2. It's kinda splitting hairs. Blame the BE non-conference record for the inability to move higher.
 
On that bracketmatrix we are nominally the last 8, some show 9s for us, a couple of 7s if you scroll to the right.

7s: - a lot of volatility to keep them all at 7

1. BYU plays Houston today - let's go Cougars let BYU fall to an 8
2. Missouri plays Florida today - let's go Seminoles, err, Gators drop Missouri down to an 8
3. Kansas - lost yesterday
4. Marquette - won but plays St. John's. And beating a team 3x in a season is rough - we already beat Marquette 2x, so let's play St. John's!

8s:

1. Gonzaga - won and auto bid likely stays or rises as a matter of 7s losing.
2. Memphis - likely to win American and rise to 7 or 6
3. Mississippi St - lost yesterday
4. UConn - we are on a bender now! Post-season record over last 3 seasons running at 16-0:
  • 2022-2023: 6 in a row
  • 2023-2024: 9 in a row including BET.
  • 2024-2025: 1 in a row...so far....if we win two more, 18-0 heading into a dance and no one will want to dance with us.
So there is some wiggle room especially with 3 of 4 7s likely to or already has lost and an 8 already lost.

And some 6's are in for trouble in their tourney - UCLA plays Wisconsin, Illinois plays Maryland.

So while the committee usually doesn't give credence to conference tournaments, when you have so many teams log jammed at 22-9 before they start it gives clarity once the tourney's finishes as some go to 22-10, others 25-9 and that includes NET rating changes, Quad 1 and 2 W/L changes and you start to see changes in seeding not inclusion. Even which team is #1 - #4 gets mixed around based on conference tourney variances.
 
Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems kinda crazy for Kansas as a 6 seed when they're 6-11 vs Q1. I guess it pays to have no real bad losses.
 
yungdowork said:
Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems kinda crazy for Kansas as a 6 seed when they're 6-11 vs Q1. I guess it pays to have no real bad losses.
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More brackets have them as a 7 than 6.
 
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I'm pretty confident that none of the prognosticators whose bracket projections are being referenced on this thread are on the selection committee.
 
auror said:
More brackets have them as a 7 than 6.
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Yeah I think they'll end up a 7 but CBS Sports and NY Times updated their brackets today and have them in as a 6. Just thought it was interesting.
 
Henry said:
I think we have to win BET to move up, and not even sure beating Marquette would get us there. We may have to beat SJU.
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If the committee has Marquette as a 7, and we beat them in the final, I'm not sure they can put them ahead of us with a 0-3 head to head record
 
JonnyRI said:
Is it possible to win a Natty as a 7 seed?

;)
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Ask Villanova they won as an 8 beating GT
With help from one or two Ct kids
under Rollie
Then lost to a 7 under Jay Wright ,
As did other great coaches like Izzo, Calipari and Billy Donavan
In fact Nova’s loss was a blowout to a 7
 
UCFan1513 said:
If the committee has Marquette as a 7, and we beat them in the final, I'm not sure they can put them ahead of us with a 0-3 head to head record
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In general head to head is not a big deal, but Committee does take this into account when the teams are close. See them putting Xavier as the 3 and UConn as the 4 in 2023.
 
Looking at bracketmatrix last year, here were the biggest whiffs for their projected 7-10 seeds:

Nevada: projected 7, actual 10 (-3)
Utah St: projected 6, actual 8 (-2)
Boise St: projected 8, actual 10 (-2)
FAU: projected 10, actual 8 (+2)

All other 7-10 seeds were within 1 seed of their projections.
 
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FfldCntyFan said:
My gut tells me that the committee has us as a seven at the moment, primarily because they won't want to have a one seed have to worry about having to play us this early.
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I've seen this sentiment a lot and I don't wholly disagree. But my counterpoint would be that the alternative then is placing a team they view as better than UConn in a matchup with a 1 seed, which is an actual disservice as opposed to playing the idea of UConn
 
This year, there are a lot of overrated teams. Imagine a region with say 1. Florida, 2. MSU, 3. Clemson, 4. Louisville, 5. Kentucky, 6. Purdue. I’d feel pretty good as a 7 or 8 seed in that. Then again knowing the NCAA, we’re probs going to end in the hardest region with like Auburn, Houston, and Iowa State (Duke is gonna be given a cakewalk).
 
Oregon lost and Ole Miss is going down. They are directly ahead of us on NET. UConn is 29.
 
ctbro1999 said:
Looking at bracketmatrix last year, here were the biggest whiffs for their projected 7-10 seeds:

Nevada: projected 7, actual 10 (-3)
Utah St: projected 6, actual 8 (-2)
Boise St: projected 8, actual 10 (-2)
FAU: projected 10, actual 8 (+2)

All other 7-10 seeds were within 1 seed of their projections.
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I'm curious if FAU's bump was due to being a final four team the year prior. If that was why, it should benefit us in this year's seeding.
 
navery12 said:
I've seen this sentiment a lot and I don't wholly disagree. But my counterpoint would be that the alternative then is placing a team they view as better than UConn in a matchup with a 1 seed, which is an actual disservice as opposed to playing the idea of UConn
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The argument then would come down to what they place more value in: who they view as the stronger team or who has the better metrics (they don't necessarily have to equate the two).

Also, look at my response on FAU in last year's tournament. They may view recent tournament history as part of the equation while metrics will completely ignore that.

Finally, there is some built in adjustment anyway as they need to prevent schools from facing in-conference opponents (unless it isn't possible) during the first two rounds and higher seeded schools from the same conference meeting before the regional finals.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
I'm pretty confident that none of the prognosticators whose bracket projections are being referenced on this thread are on the selection committee.
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True - I usually go with the field, but the committee decides not the field.
 
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