5 AAC Teams Ranked Monday?
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jleves
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Unfortunately, SMU beating Cinci actually hurts our chances to be ranked. It makes the loss look a little worse as Cinci will drop several spots to maybe 12-14. And it moves SMU into the top 25 leaving one less spot and we should fall to 24 in the best case scenario. Fortunately, there are other teams in 20-25 area that had worse losses than we did. Assuming we show well tomorrow, we could be 24 or 25, but more likely back to 26 or 27.
jleves
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They lost twice this week at home to Iowa St and at TT. They've lost 4 in a row. They will not be ranked (they were actually lucky to remain in the teens this week).
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Has this board ever been obsessed with the top 25 as this year? The committee does a pretty solid job of seeding so I don't worry about it. Anyways, Pitt and Gonzaga lost so they will be out. Oklahoma St has been tanking so they should be out. Ohio St will be back in and SMU should be in. It will be close. I think UConn ends up at 24 or 25 but wouldn't be surprised if they dropped out either.
Edit: Pitt lost last Sunday so they probably won't drop but winning in double OT against VT isn't exactly inspiring.
Edit: Pitt lost last Sunday so they probably won't drop but winning in double OT against VT isn't exactly inspiring.
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Very impressive inaugural season for the AAC. I'm hoping that the success of SMU causes Houston to fire their coach and open up the wallet for a new coach. If Houston and Temple can rediscover themselves this basketball league will be very good. Both Florida schools also have potential.
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Impressive at the top.
Horrendous at the bottom. And that's really what needs to get cleaned up. The Big East (before expansion) had years where they got 3 or 4 out of 14, but it was still not a terrible league because there were only a few really awful teams. Right now (and going into next year) we're looking at having 6 sub-150 schools in an 11-team conference. If Temple recovers. Even if the top 4 teams (UConn-Cincy-SMU-Memphis) are better next year than this, they'll be perpetually under-seeded because of the low RPI they'll have.
Edward Sargent
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BE was pretty bad at the bottom too, with USF, DePaul, RU, Johnnies, PC etc
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storrsroars
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Yeah. While the AAC might well get 5 teams into the NCAA this year, they won't get any into the NIT. There's no middle class in this conference. And you're right, it will get harder to qualify starting next year. And in our case, it's even more challenging as the Puerto Rico TipOff has a fairly weak roster and we're (tentatively) at Florida, but that's it. UMass would be a good add. And maybe Tulane could get Phil Jackson to coach, lol.
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I thought the same thing going into last night, but with Oklahoma St. losing for the 2nd this week, I think a win today and we stay in. I see 3 teams dropping out.
Ok. St will be out, Oklahoma lost to an unranked team so they should be out, and I think Gonzaga should be out. SMU will fill a spot, Ohio St. will fill a spot after winning twice this week including on the road at Iowa. Wisconsin could also get back in if they beat Michigan St. today.
A win today and we stay in. We may drop down to No. 25.
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It's a double edge sword. It is great for the league that we have 5 teams going to the tournament, and potentially 5 teams ranked. That may help for seeding when the committee looks at the league. But yes it does hurt UConn's chances of going by them.
UConn has to get to 13-5 in the league to finish in the Top 3. Can they do it? Yes. THEY HAVE TO TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AGAINST THE REMAINING BAD TEAMS ON THEIR SCHEDULE. If they do that, hold serve at home against Memphis, SMU, and Cincy, then even a loss at Ville to the end the season gets them to 13-5.
Remember that SMU still has to go to UConn and Memphis, hosts Ville, and has a tricky road trip at Temple/Rutgers this week. Rutgers plays well at home. I could see them losing that game.
Memphis still has to go to UConn, Cincy, and hosts Ville who wants a revenge game. If we beat them in Hartford next weekend, we will have the important tiebreaker over them.
Don't see us catching Cincy. Could catch Ville depending on how they fare against SMU, Cincy, and Memphis. They do have to play 2 of the games on the road.
Rico444
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We still have an outside shot at winning the conference. We're only 3 behind Cincinnati in the loss column, so assuming we take care of business against the bottom feeders, and beat Cinci at home, we have a legitimate shot. We still play the 4 teams ahead of us, and 3 of them are at home.
I think this team has definitely turned a corner. I would be pretty surprised if we lost to any of the bad teams at the bottom, even on the road, and I like our chances against anyone at home. 3-1 against the good teams and we have a really good shot to end at 13-5.
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#19-25 loses this week through yesterday...Uconn, Ok St(2), Ok, Gonzaga...Ok St definetly out of rankings.
Ohio St, SMU should be ranked now. That would leave 2 spot for UConn, Ok, Gonzaga, Wisc. If Wisc & Uconn win today I think we might be #26...close call with Ok at #25. Ok might get nod, alot more pts last wk....Gozaga #27.
And I know it doesn't really matter...so you don't need to tell me
...I think rankings do matter though.
Ohio St, SMU should be ranked now. That would leave 2 spot for UConn, Ok, Gonzaga, Wisc. If Wisc & Uconn win today I think we might be #26...close call with Ok at #25. Ok might get nod, alot more pts last wk....Gozaga #27.
And I know it doesn't really matter...so you don't need to tell me
...I think rankings do matter though.
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Oklahoma lost to an unranked team. Uconn lost to the no. 7 team in the country.#19-25 loses this week through yesterday...Uconn, Ok St(2), Ok, Gonzaga...Ok St definetly out of rankings.
Ohio St, SMU should be ranked now...if Wisconsin beats Mich St today they should be as well. That would leave 1 spot for UConn (if win), Ok and Gonzaga. Ok might stay in over Uconn (more pts last week and Big 12). So if Wisconsin & UConn win I think we might be #26...close call with Ok, Gonzaga #27.
And I know it doesn't really matter...so you don't need to tell me
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Close call with Oklahoma....they had a 100+ pt lead on us last week, play in #1 ranked conf & @ WV not horrible loss...we'll see. If UConn blows out UCF we might get the edge. SMU blowing out Cincy doesn't help. If Wisc loses won't be an issue.
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Not on this level. Those teams had bad records, but not necessarily bad metrics. They lost to good teams, and usually beat bad teams. A quick analysis.
So, I picked a low year with the old, 14 school setup, a low year with the newer 16 school setup, and the second-best year ever for the conference (2008-09 was insane at the top: 4 top 10 schools, 7 top 20). I used KenPom ratings because they are good indicators of a team's offensive and defensive ability...and they go back to 2003, which was a low point for the 14 team Big East, as they only got in 4 of 14 schools. Anyway, here are the KenPom rankings:
2003 – 4 Bids: KenPom rankings
Pitt - 1
Syracuse - 5
Connecticut - 18
Notre Dame - 20
Georgetown - 31
Providence - 39
Boston College - 38
Seton Hall - 46
Villanova - 60
St. John’s - 69
Miami - 95
Rutgers - 96
West Virginia - 104
Virginia Tech - 115
Top 10: 2 (14%)
Top 25: 4 (28%)
Top 50: 8 (57%)
Top 100: 12 (86%)
Sub-150: 0 (0%)
2008 – 8 bids: Kenpom rankings
Louisville - 6
Georgetown - 8
Marquette - 14
West Virginia - 22
Pitt - 24
Notre Dame - 25
Connecticut - 26
Villanova - 42
Syracuse - 48
Providence - 88
Cincinnati -92
Seton Hall - 105
DePaul - 115
USF - 125
St. John’s - 148
Rutgers - 174
Top 10: 2 (12.5%)
Top 25: 6 (37.5%)
Top 50: 9 (56%)
Top 100: 11 (69%)
Sub-150: 1 (6%)
2011 – 11 bids: Kenpom rankings
Pitt - 3
Connecticut - 9
Notre Dame - 11
Louisville - 12
Syracuse - 15
West Virginia - 18
Cincinnati -21
Marquette - 30
Villanova - 34
Georgetown - 36
St. John’s - 37
Seton Hall - 52
Rutgers - 76
Providence - 95
USF - 136
DePaul - 195
Top 10: 2 (12.5%)
Top 25: 7 (44%)
Top 50: 11 (69%)
Top 100: 14 (87.5%)
Sub-150: 1 (6%)
2014 – Kenpom rankings
Louisville - 8
SMU - 22
Cincinnati - 24
Connecticut - 29
Memphis - 30
Temple - 162
Houston - 170
Rutgers - 176
UCF - 178
USF - 181
Top 10: 1 (10%)
Top 25: 3 (30%)
Top 50: 5 (50%)
Top 100: 5 (50%)
Sub-150: 5 (50%)
We see relative stability at the Top 50…but a huge drop off in percentage of Top 100 teams, and that’s replaced with a huge increase in sub-150 schools. DePaul, Seton Hall, Rutgers…they were bad, but they were bad in conference. They weren’t terrible OOC in the way the replacements have been.
This is what needs to change. But, hopefully, by the time it does we’ll be gone.
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A deep league might be overrated. Right now the AAC has 5 in the tournament, the Big East has 2 in and 2 on the bubble. Which is
better?
A league where everyone beats each other up could end up being a beat up league. I do think the AAC will develop depth over time.
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All this, and your wonderful 'truth beats fiction' avatar.
kobe
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Wow I forgot how good the 2011 Big East was. It had 12 teams in the top 52!
The AAC is going to need Temple to return to form and USF and Houston to improve. We need to create a "middle class" in the league. Right now the top 5 plays 8 top 50 RPI games but also 10 200+ RPI games...
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It's going to matter for seeding. And it's going to matter for bubble teams. Right now, there don't seem to be any. Cincy-Louisville-SMU-UConn-Memphis are all in. But a slip-up or two more against those bottom teams will prove killer to seeding. If UConn team had only 4 losses--Stanford, Louisville, Cincy, SMU--they're seeding would be at least one line up.
Remember, too, we lose Louisville next year. That also matters.
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I have to say, even with as much as I've talked about the American, we'll be ok here at least as far as basketball is concerned.
Memphis and Cincy were the obvious pluses, but SMU looks like they could emerge as a perennially good program and I can see one or two other programs emerging down the line as the "rising tide lifts all boats".
I think we should see 5 teams ranked today but we probably won't, UConn will get dumped.
Memphis and Cincy were the obvious pluses, but SMU looks like they could emerge as a perennially good program and I can see one or two other programs emerging down the line as the "rising tide lifts all boats".
I think we should see 5 teams ranked today but we probably won't, UConn will get dumped.
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