3 Point Defense

[aceboon]

I'm surprised at how many posts I've read since the Xavier game that made it seem like Xavier was throwing up prayers and got lucky, the 3 pt defense with guys going under screens, miscommunicating on switches, or just being late to contest after the switch was not good for the most part. some of the shots were tough but by that point guys were already in a rhythm so it shouldn't be a surprise that they were able to hit contested shots once their confidence was up.

 

[Kenny11]

it will get better. Some of it is simply because we won back to back championships and the opponents are super motivated and focused

 

[HooperScooper]

Also, thanks for looking up and confirming that we still are allowing one of the lower #'s of attempts per game this year.

It bodes well because our perimeter D is getting visually much better. Players are stepping up and the coaches are implementing some adjustments with rotations and strategy.

The other thing we really need to recognize is that most of the KenPom Top 80 teams that we have played (4/7) are currently in the Top 30 for 3pt shooting %.

They are just more skilled and more likely to "go off" on any given night than a poor-shooting 3pt team. Check this out for rankings for 3pt shooting and actual %:

Memphis - 3rd (42%)
Dayton - 71st (37%)
Colorado - 28th (39%)
Baylor - 45th (38%)
Gonzaga - 117th (35%)
Texas - 6th (41%)
Xavier - 8th (41%)

Check out the non-luck adjusted metrics for us in Dec vs. KP Top 100 teams:. Note the 3pt% and overall above-average performance in nearly all important stats:
View attachment 105589

Now check out the luck-adjusted stats:
View attachment 105590




I think we need to just relax a little.

Someone needs to translate what I'm looking at. My ADHD kicks in after 5 seconds and I have no idea how to interpret this. Can someone give us a short explanation on what this means? TIA.

 

[HooperScooper]

it will get better. Some of it is simply because we won back to back championships and the opponents are super motivated and focused

I don't buy that explanation. So teams that are extra motivated shoot a better percentage from 3? I can buy that teams maybe play harder and focus more on defense or rebound with more abandon. But I don't think it causes teams to shoot a better percentage from three.

 

[Stinger92860]

We are currently at #349 at 39%. The Zags are #2.
I’m trying to figure out if this is a deficiency on individual coverage or are we pulling guys in on help defense inside to leave shooters open and get rebounds in a Hurley planned defense scheme. It seems like it’s more than just teams got hot and shot the lights out. Every game.

Data, like ball, don’t lie.

 

[6Nattys4Us]

Combination of no Clingan or Castle and having shorter guards coupled with players needing to up their defense.

Clingan - would block 7 a game if teams kept going to him (like Illinois thought they could) - so his presence means "most" teams would be shooting from outside.

Castle - we have Ross, but he's nowhere close to the level of D that Castle brought. Hopefully he and others improve.

Shorter guards - what we did to Purdue with Newton and Spencer is what teams can do to us with Diarra and Ball. Teams with 6'5" guards can shoot over ours and/or drive without the fear of Clingan. We need help trying to block their 3s and teams are setting up a lot of high screens just for this.

Overall lateral quickness needs to be more developed, better coordination on high screens and hopefully players can get better on 1:1 defense skills. It will get better but those are some improvement areas.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Someone needs to translate what I'm looking at. My ADHD kicks in after 5 seconds and I have no idea how to interpret this. Can someone give us a short explanation on what this means? TIA.

OK I'll put the luck-adjusted pic in here to make it easier to run through...

For the table:

• The "Baseline offense" is our offense's performance, "baseline defense" is our D's performance
• Net Rtg: Margin between Adjusted offense & defense efficiencies (the Adj P/100). This is measured in points per 100 possessions. NetRtg is what KenPom uses for him main team rankings. The higher the offense, the better. The lower the defense, the better. In the tables, the darker the green color, the higher ranked, the darker the red/pink, the worse. P/100 is raw calculation, Adj P/100 does an adjustment for the team's strength of opposition
• eFG%: effective FG%, adjusts for fact that 3pt shots are 1.5x more than 2pt shots
• TO%: turnovers
• OR%: % of offensive rebounds the team got or gave up
• FTR: FT rate for us and opposing team
• A%: percent of scores with assists
• 3PR/2PRmid/2PR rim: breaks down the type of shots taken and given up
• 3P%:/2p% mid/2p% rim: Our shooting % and the opposing team's shooting % in those zones
• Poss: total # of possessions the data is based on
• SoS: strength of the schedule the possessions came from

The shot char should be fairly self-explanatory just breaks down the shooting data into sections of the court

If you go to Hoop Explorer, you can hover over all the data points and pop-up information comes up. You can also do filters for specific lineups, effects of player(s) being on/off the court, etc. It's pretty fun.
UConn Hoop Explorer Stats

Hope this helps!

 

[HooperScooper]

OK I'll put the luck-adjusted pic in here to make it easier to run through...

For the table:

• The "Baseline offense" is our offense's performance, "baseline defense" is our D's performance
• Net Rtg: Margin between Adjusted offense & defense efficiencies (the Adj P/100). This is measured in points per 100 possessions. NetRtg is what KenPom uses for him main team rankings. The higher the offense, the better. The lower the defense, the better. In the tables, the darker the green color, the higher ranked, the darker the red/pink, the worse. P/100 is raw calculation, Adj P/100 does an adjustment for the team's strength of opposition
• eFG%: effective FG%, adjusts for fact that 3pt shots are 1.5x more than 2pt shots
• TO%: turnovers
• OR%: % of offensive rebounds the team got or gave up
• FTR: FT rate for us and opposing team
• A%: percent of scores with assists
• 3PR/2PRmid/2PR rim: breaks down the type of shots taken and given up
• 3P%:/2p% mid/2p% rim: Our shooting % and the opposing team's shooting % in those zones
• Poss: total # of possessions the data is based on
• SoS: strength of the schedule the possessions came from

The shot char should be fairly self-explanatory just breaks down the shooting data into sections of the court

View attachment 105597

If you go to Hoop Explorer, you can hover over all the data points and pop-up information comes up. You can also do filters for specific lineups, effects of player(s) being on/off the court, etc. It's pretty fun.
UConn Hoop Explorer Stats

Hope this helps!

Thanks. Appreciate it.

No wonder why Hurley needs Luke Murray.

 

[uh-no]

Last year teams took 18.7 threes a game against us on 31.2%
In 2023, 16.7 a game on 29.7%
This season, 17.4 a game on 39.2%

So it seems like we're letting teams shoot around the same amount of threes, but almost 10% higher which is wild!

In Maui our defense was terrible. The most basic plays collapsed our defense and our rotations were really bad, which led to wide open threes all game

Against Xavier, they made some tough shots. We probably could have made an adjustment to not let X keep taking them, but if you give Xavier the same exact shots at Cintas then I bet they shoot closer to 8-24 instead of 13-24

Buy games: 20-80 (25%)
Baylor: 6-17 (35.3%)
Texas: 8-17 (47.1%)
Gonzaga: 6-16 (37.5%)

I think it's a combination of smaller guards (harder to contest), still not perfect defensive rotations (improving), and going under off-ball screens which gives guys more room when they catch it

this is the right analysis. we are #23 in the country in 3PA/FGA...which is the biggest indicator of how "open" we are leaving people. This indicates either

1) we are doing generally a good job on 3 point defense, and teams are making difficult shots
2) our defense is either solid on a play, or really bad on a play leaving guys wayyy wide open, or not open at all.

I think it was a lot of the latter earlier in the season, where we were losing shooters WAY too often, but it's definitely trended toward the former lately.

 

[ToolzieFan]

This article is a few years old, but it shows the opponents’ three-point shooting percentage varies wildly over the course of a season. The most important skill, as others here have noted, is preventing three-point attempts, which we do.

https://kenpom.com/blog/3point-defense-should-not-be-defined-by-opponents-3p/

 

[Pmac923]

Let’s just keep scoring more points than the other team. That formula normally works.

 

[uh-no]

This article is a few years old, but it shows the opponents’ three-point shooting percentage varies wildly over the course of a season. The most important skill, as others here have noted, is preventing three-point attempts, which we do.
View attachment 105639

https://kenpom.com/blog/3point-defense-should-not-be-defined-by-opponents-3p/

thanks for digging that up. We've done much better on that since maui....it was the inordinately good shooting that got us with Xavier (and the women with USC last night ugh), and the year long problem of putting Butler on the line. The offense also was pretty clunky vs bulter (someone noted the shot distribution was not what we would want to get were it humming).

It's a long season. Bear was sick....some time off and some more games to work on the kinks.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I'm surprised at how many posts I've read since the Xavier game that made it seem like Xavier was throwing up prayers and got lucky, the 3 pt defense with guys going under screens, miscommunicating on switches, or just being late to contest after the switch was not good for the most part. some of the shots were tough but by that point guys were already in a rhythm so it shouldn't be a surprise that they were able to hit contested shots once their confidence was up.

Yep, I posted similar thoughts and got a ‘you watch the same game’ b/c many posters just remember the rhythm heat check shots their guards hit in the last 10 off regulation.

 

[Scrutineer]

What formula explains Dante Maddox going 5 for 9 on three's against us and then, in his next game, going 1 for 4 on three's versus Marquette?

 

[JohnFSilver]

OK I'll put the luck-adjusted pic in here to make it easier to run through...

For the table:

• The "Baseline offense" is our offense's performance, "baseline defense" is our D's performance
• Net Rtg: Margin between Adjusted offense & defense efficiencies (the Adj P/100). This is measured in points per 100 possessions. NetRtg is what KenPom uses for him main team rankings. The higher the offense, the better. The lower the defense, the better. In the tables, the darker the green color, the higher ranked, the darker the red/pink, the worse. P/100 is raw calculation, Adj P/100 does an adjustment for the team's strength of opposition
• eFG%: effective FG%, adjusts for fact that 3pt shots are 1.5x more than 2pt shots
• TO%: turnovers
• OR%: % of offensive rebounds the team got or gave up
• FTR: FT rate for us and opposing team
• A%: percent of scores with assists
• 3PR/2PRmid/2PR rim: breaks down the type of shots taken and given up
• 3P%:/2p% mid/2p% rim: Our shooting % and the opposing team's shooting % in those zones
• Poss: total # of possessions the data is based on
• SoS: strength of the schedule the possessions came from

The shot char should be fairly self-explanatory just breaks down the shooting data into sections of the court

View attachment 105597

If you go to Hoop Explorer, you can hover over all the data points and pop-up information comes up. You can also do filters for specific lineups, effects of player(s) being on/off the court, etc. It's pretty fun.
UConn Hoop Explorer Stats

Hope this helps!

It takes time decipher, but you want to understand expected fg% over long term than just some guys hitting contested 3s.

if a guy gets open, and is a good 3point shooter, and he misses, that is not good D. If same player takes a shot closely guarded, that is good D.

u got to rank every one of those shots. Eliminate open shots First.

 

[uh-no]

What formula explains Dante Maddox going 5 for 9 on three's against us and then, in his next game, going 1 for 4 on three's versus Marquette?

random chance...nobody is arguing there is anything we could have done about maddox.

 

[jibsey]

The other thing to consider about opponent’s 3’s is that a missed 3 often ends with an offensive rebound, putback or foul. That is a rebounding issue and we are not as dominant as previous years I’m guessing. If Johnson is in there is that a disadvantage with his lack of rebounding?

 

[Palatine]

I think this best explains where we are and where we are headed.

 

[navery12]

The other thing to consider about opponent’s 3’s is that a missed 3 often ends with an offensive rebound, putback or foul. That is a rebounding issue and we are not as dominant as previous years I’m guessing. If Johnson is in there is that a disadvantage with his lack of rebounding?

You would be guessing wrong. We were 68th in the country in offensive rebound % on defense 2 years ago, 82nd last year, and 26th this season

 

[jibsey]

You would be guessing wrong. We were 68th in the country in offensive rebound % on defense 2 years ago, 82nd last year, and 26th this season

I don’t know what are margins are against quality teams because stats can be very misleading.
Many of our quality games we have no rebounding margins. Dayton killed us. Many are a 2-3 rebound edge but we’ve had a couple with an advantage. We are not a dominant rebounding team, and Johnson is part of that.

 

[navery12]

I don’t know what are margins are against quality teams because stats can be very misleading.
Many of our quality games we have no rebounding margins. Dayton killed us. Many are a 2-3 rebound edge but we’ve had a couple with an advantage. We are not a dominant rebounding team, and Johnson is part of that.

I'm not sure why I'd even respond when you just blatantly disregarded the stats I gave you to create your own narrative, but here I am.

As a reference point, the offensive rebound rate we gave up to opponents was 26.0% in 2023, 26.7% in 2024, and is 24.7% this year. If we exclude the 5 cupcake games that brings this year's number to 27.2%.

But you also have to keep in mind that the previous teams' numbers also include cupcake games. 2023 was 28.2% in conference play, and 2024 was 28.7% in conference play. Any way you slice it, your eye test is wrong

 

[jibsey]

I'm not sure why I'd even respond when you just blatantly disregarded the stats I gave you to create your own narrative, but here I am.

As a reference point, the offensive rebound rate we gave up to opponents was 26.0% in 2023, 26.7% in 2024, and is 24.7% this year. If we exclude the 5 cupcake games that brings this year's number to 27.2%.

But you also have to keep in mind that the previous teams' numbers also include cupcake games. 2023 was 28.2% in conference play, and 2024 was 28.7% in conference play. Any way you slice it, your eye test is wrong

Let’s focus on the overall rebounding numbers. You don’t need an eye test to see we have not been dominant and Samson Johnson even though improving and doing a great job is certainly a part of that.
What was last year’s overall rebounding margin compared to this year? And exclude cupcake games.

 

[Nick2005]

We are slow. People blow by us and kick out to open threes. It’s very simple. We make teams look better than they are. My solution would be to potentially play two bigs. Then you won’t be scared of people driving and you will get more rebounds, in theory. I’m sure Hurley sees the same thing and will adjust. February I get nervous if this continues.

 

[Spaceman213J]

Watching the games, one of the things that stick out is how much of defensive clog Clingan was. He made it either going over the top of screens easier for guards because they could rely on his retreat defense to still guard the rim and take away the passing lane to the big man if he rolls. He also made hard closeouts easier because if the guy pump fakes and drives, DC was still there. Sanogo was really good at positioning himself as well.
I do think that Solo closes on the 3 point line weakly. A few of the guys look like they're going out on ice. Newton, Castle and Spencer (later in the year) were pretty good at closing out, and all had natural size and length which helps a lot.

 

[Classof87]

We are currently at #349 at 39%. The Zags are #2.
I’m trying to figure out if this is a deficiency on individual coverage or are we pulling guys in on help defense inside to leave shooters open and get rebounds in a Hurley planned defense scheme. It seems like it’s more than just teams got hot and shot the lights out. Every game.

I'm only looking at it from a personnel standpoint, but if you compare the size of Newton, Castle, and Spencer versus Ball, Diarra, and Mahaney, we've lost several inches of size out on the perimeter.

Also, I'll echo what's been said already: we are getting everybody's best game because we're the 2 time defending champs. That target will stay on our backs all year.

If we continue to gel, I like our chances in March to get back to the FF.