3 Point Defense

[jibsey]

We are currently at #349 at 39%. The Zags are #2.
I’m trying to figure out if this is a deficiency on individual coverage or are we pulling guys in on help defense inside to leave shooters open and get rebounds in a Hurley planned defense scheme. It seems like it’s more than just teams got hot and shot the lights out. Every game.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Combination of poor coverage in the early season and some missed switches more recently. But a few guys have gone nuclear on us, no way will we be in the 300s by the end of the year

 

[willie99]

It's because everyone plays their best against us, with many of them shooting contested 3s at a higher percentage than they can shoot uncontested 3s in practice

Emotion and motivation can and does help

Our defense is good, and getting better daily

 

[Tenspro2002]

It was actually bad early in the year. Better lately, but obscured by an extreme outlier performance by Xavier against what was actually good defense. I bet the "shot quality" metrics would show they were incredibly lucky.

 

[Waquoit]

I'm not going to worry about it. Issues get addressed on this team. I'm just going to enjoy the ride.

 

[Palatine]

It was bound to go up with the big goalie moving onto the NBA. Our guards have to concentrate on preventing the blow bye which opens space on the perimeter. That's #1. Next, Hurley has stated that we need work on our rotations, that isn't helping. Add in that we have had games where the opposition hit well defended treys at an amazing clip.

All are fixable to some degree. Over time, that number should become more respectable.

 

[ctbro1999]

I don't think our defense will be anywhere close to last year's (at least metrics-wise) but no way we are also one of the worst 3 pt defending teams and a 100+ ranked defense overall. Bench guy goes nuclear and is hitting contested shots left and right...what can you do? Things will start to average out on defense.

On a side note, I always thought Villanova was known for at least having a solid defense, even under Neptune, but holy schnikes, I see they are currently 150th in KP (we are 96).

 

[husky429]

Is this % or volume?

We've had some guys go nuclear on us, but historically we tend to limit the # of attempts.

 

[gtcam]

It's because everyone plays their best against us, with many of them shooting contested 3s at a higher percentage than they can shoot uncontested 3s in practice

Emotion and motivation can and does help

Our defense is good, and getting better daily

UConn's perimeter D is bad - too many open shooters, hands down to the side, not to mention how many times Ball and AM have been beaten off the dribble., If you play proper D no amount of emotion and motivation will beat you as consistently as we have seen thus far.

 

[ctbro1999]

UConn's perimeter D is bad - too many open shooters, hands down to the side, not to mention how many times Ball and AM have been beaten off the dribble., If you play proper D no amount of emotion and motivation will beat you as consistently as we have seen thus far.

Ball has played much better D lately. Doesn't mean he's a plus or even average defender, but he's made progress. Also had 4 steals against Xavier, including pretty much the game-clinching steal.

 

[nomar]

It was actually bad early in the year. Better lately, but obscured by an extreme outlier performance by Xavier against what was actually good defense. I bet the "shot quality" metrics would show they were incredibly lucky.

Somebody posted an article in another thread with the stats. Teams are shooting ridiculous percentages on contested 3s.

It's like giving up a .400 BABIP in baseball. Our bad luck is going to run out.

But yes, also, the defense was bad for a stretch earlier.

 

[aburks41]

Is this % or volume?

We've had some guys go nuclear on us, but historically we tend to limit the # of attempts.

Our attempts and % on 2's and 3's are polar opposites.

2PA we are 248th. But we are 14th in 2P%
3PA we are 27th. But we are 354th in 3P%

It's just bizarre. Funny enough it's actually nearly identical to the 2022 team.

2PA we are 293th. But we are 4th in 2P%
3PA we are 34th. But we are 287th in 3P%

And of course, that season ended at the hands of Teddy Allen. I'm slightly concerned that we may see a repeat of that unless we figure something out. Ross may need to be our lockdown defender if someone starts going nuclear on us.

 

[Jaydumo20]

It's because everyone plays their best against us, with many of them shooting contested 3s at a higher percentage than they can shoot uncontested 3s in practice

Emotion and motivation can and does help

Our defense is good, and getting better daily

I know your explanation doesn't sound basketball-y enough but I think you are right. Permit me to add to it:

Xavier had to shoot 3s with wild abandon to even stay in the game- that was part of their actual game plan. that opened things up when they started to hit them. But a team like ours, expecting to win, jacking up contested 3s is not in the game plan. Ever. If we played "jackup- 3s" games we'd probably win some by 15 and lose some by 15.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Our attempts and % on 2's and 3's are polar opposites.

2PA we are 248th. But we are 14th in 2P%
3PA we are 27th. But we are 354th in 3P%

It's just bizarre. Funny enough it's actually nearly identical to the 2022 team.

2PA we are 293th. But we are 4th in 2P%
3PA we are 34th. But we are 287th in 3P%

And of course, that season ended at the hands of Teddy Allen. I'm slightly concerned that we may see a repeat of that unless we figure something out. Ross may need to be our lockdown defender if someone starts going nuclear on us.

You're a smart poster. Is there anything different about the 23, 24, & 25 teams compared to the 22 team that makes what you're fretting about much more unlikely?

Hint: It's called elite offense, We have it now,

 

[aburks41]

You're a smart poster. Is there anything different about the 23, 24, & 25 teams compared to the 22 team that makes what you're fretting about much more unlikely?

Hint: It's called elite offense, We have it now,

That would be what saves us, but do you really want to get into a shootout like the Xavier game? The 3 pointer is the great equalizer for an inferior team.

Also of interesting note, our 2PA and 2P% are pretty much the same year to year. Very poor at limiting the attempts, but very very elite at 2P%. The difference is that the 2023 and 2024 title teams were also very good to elite at limiting 3P%. 2023 was 14th, 2024 was 40th.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Our attempts and % on 2's and 3's are polar opposites.

2PA we are 248th. But we are 14th in 2P%
3PA we are 27th. But we are 354th in 3P%

It's just bizarre. Funny enough it's actually nearly identical to the 2022 team.

2PA we are 293th. But we are 4th in 2P%
3PA we are 34th. But we are 287th in 3P%

And of course, that season ended at the hands of Teddy Allen. I'm slightly concerned that we may see a repeat of that unless we figure something out. Ross may need to be our lockdown defender if someone starts going nuclear on us.

Also, thanks for looking up and confirming that we still are allowing one of the lower #'s of attempts per game this year.

It bodes well because our perimeter D is getting visually much better. Players are stepping up and the coaches are implementing some adjustments with rotations and strategy.

The other thing we really need to recognize is that most of the KenPom Top 80 teams that we have played (4/7) are currently in the Top 30 for 3pt shooting %.

They are just more skilled and more likely to "go off" on any given night than a poor-shooting 3pt team. Check this out for rankings for 3pt shooting and actual %:

Memphis - 3rd (42%)
Dayton - 71st (37%)
Colorado - 28th (39%)
Baylor - 45th (38%)
Gonzaga - 117th (35%)
Texas - 6th (41%)
Xavier - 8th (41%)

Check out the non-luck adjusted metrics for us in Dec vs. KP Top 100 teams:. Note the 3pt% and overall above-average performance in nearly all important stats:

Now check out the luck-adjusted stats:

I think we need to just relax a little.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

That would be what saves us, but do you really want to get into a shootout like the Xavier game? The 3 pointer is the great equalizer for an inferior team.

Also of interesting note, our 2PA and 2P% are pretty much the same year to year. Very poor at limiting the attempts, but very very elite at 2P%. The difference is that the 2023 and 2024 title teams were also very good to elite at limiting 3P%. 2023 was 14th, 2024 was 40th.

Our defense is designed to force 2Pt shots over 3pt shots. Because when teams are forced to take 2pt shots, we hold them well below average for shooting percentage. In 22/23 it was the Sanogo/Clingan/Ajax effect. In 23/24 it was the Clingan/Samson/Castle effect. This year, it's the Samson/Reed effect. We're developing a third big-time stopper. Could be Ross or McNeeley.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Also, thanks for looking up and confirming that we still are allowing one of the lower #'s of attempts per game this year.

It bodes well because our perimeter D is getting visually much better. Players are stepping up and the coaches are implementing some adjustments with rotations and strategy.

The other thing we really need to recognize is that most of the KenPom Top 80 teams that we have played (4/7) are currently in the Top 30 for 3pt shooting %.

They are just more skilled and more likely to "go off" on any given night than a poor-shooting 3pt team. Check this out for rankings for 3pt shooting and actual %:

Memphis - 3rd (42%)
Dayton - 71st (37%)
Colorado - 28th (39%)
Baylor - 45th (38%)
Gonzaga - 117th (35%)
Texas - 6th (41%)
Xavier - 8th (41%)

Check out the non-luck adjusted metrics for us in Dec vs. KP Top 100 teams:. Note the 3pt% and overall above-average performance in nearly all important stats:
View attachment 105589

Now check out the luck-adjusted stats:
View attachment 105590




I think we need to just relax a little.

I forgot to add to my previous post that here's who we have coming up:

Butler - 19th (39.4%)
DePaul - 17th (39.8%)
Providence - 159th (33.6%)
Villanova - 9th (40.6%)
G'Town - 266th (30.8%)
Creigton - 161st (33.6%)

I expect at least 4 of those games to see the opposing team "go off" on us. Just need to limit total #'s of 3pt shots.

 

[aburks41]

Also, thanks for looking up and confirming that we still are allowing one of the lower #'s of attempts per game this year.

It bodes well because our perimeter D is getting visually much better. Players are stepping up and the coaches are implementing some adjustments with rotations and strategy.

The other thing we really need to recognize is that most of the KenPom Top 80 teams that we have played (4/7) are currently in the Top 30 for 3pt shooting %.

They are just more skilled and more likely to "go off" on any given night than a poor-shooting 3pt team. Check this out for rankings for 3pt shooting and actual %:

Memphis - 3rd (42%)
Dayton - 71st (37%)
Colorado - 28th (39%)
Baylor - 45th (38%)
Gonzaga - 117th (35%)
Texas - 6th (41%)
Xavier - 8th (41%)

Check out the non-luck adjusted metrics for us in Dec vs. KP Top 100 teams:. Note the 3pt% and overall above-average performance in nearly all important stats:
View attachment 105589

Now check out the luck-adjusted stats:
View attachment 105590




I think we need to just relax a little.

I agree that we're going to see some regression to the mean because my eye test tells me that a lot of these 3's are contested and there's just an element of bad luck. The defense has definitely looked better than it did in Maui. Solo still got caught under a screen against Xavier but he's been better lately. McNeeley has been night and day better too. Much better using his body to defend rather than his hands. Great positioning too to cut off drives. Although he seems to get the freshman Karaban whistle where refs just don't respect him for whatever reason

 

[ctbro1999]

I forgot to add to my previous post that here's who we have coming up:

Butler - 19th (39.4%)
DePaul - 17th (39.8%)
Providence - 159th (33.6%)
Villanova - 9th (40.6%)
G'Town - 266th (30.8%)
Creigton - 161st (33.6%)

I expect at least 4 of those games to see the opposing team "go off" on us. Just need to limit total #'s of 3pt shots.

Yeah, if we let a team shoot 60% from 3 but they only take 14 3's (similar to the Kansas game last year), that's not a huge deal as long as we're keeping them in check on 2 pt shots.

 

[Gurleyman]

X did go nuclear, but our d could have been better. AK late (and Diarra a couple times) didn’t fight over screens terribly well and when Reed was forced to switch, they hunted him. Reed’s D wasn’t awful, but he gave some space as a big and they took that window. Clingan would actually play much further off but closed ground super quick and was usually in the shooters‘ heads in a way that Reed isn’t.

There are ways to tighten up a little, but without Clingan there is less margin for error. You can’t just run people off the line and know there’s a security blanket behind you.

 

[Tenspro2002]

That would be what saves us, but do you really want to get into a shootout like the Xavier game? The 3 pointer is the great equalizer for an inferior team.

Also of interesting note, our 2PA and 2P% are pretty much the same year to year. Very poor at limiting the attempts, but very very elite at 2P%. The difference is that the 2023 and 2024 title teams were also very good to elite at limiting 3P%. 2023 was 14th, 2024 was 40th.

I think we were a bad 3-point defense team in November, with it being rotation dependent and a lot of new pieces figuring out how to work with new teammates.

I think we're an improving 3-point defense team now that ran into a 98th percentile shooting performance in spite of good D. I expect the metrics to continue showing improved 3-point defense, probably not to elite level, but at least average.

 

[diggerfoot]

3 fg% is mostly a function of the offense.

#3 attempts in relation to a team’s norm is mostly a function of the defense.

Even if Purdue had made all 7 of its 3 fg attempts in the championship game, that was still excellent defense on our part.

 

[REB1094]

Last year teams took 18.7 threes a game against us on 31.2%
In 2023, 16.7 a game on 29.7%
This season, 17.4 a game on 39.2%

So it seems like we're letting teams shoot around the same amount of threes, but almost 10% higher which is wild!

In Maui our defense was terrible. The most basic plays collapsed our defense and our rotations were really bad, which led to wide open threes all game

Against Xavier, they made some tough shots. We probably could have made an adjustment to not let X keep taking them, but if you give Xavier the same exact shots at Cintas then I bet they shoot closer to 8-24 instead of 13-24

Buy games: 20-80 (25%)
Baylor: 6-17 (35.3%)
Texas: 8-17 (47.1%)
Gonzaga: 6-16 (37.5%)

I think it's a combination of smaller guards (harder to contest), still not perfect defensive rotations (improving), and going under off-ball screens which gives guys more room when they catch it

 

[HuskyFich]

Our attempts and % on 2's and 3's are polar opposites.

2PA we are 248th. But we are 14th in 2P%
3PA we are 27th. But we are 354th in 3P%

It's just bizarre. Funny enough it's actually nearly identical to the 2022 team.

2PA we are 293th. But we are 4th in 2P%
3PA we are 34th. But we are 287th in 3P%

And of course, that season ended at the hands of Teddy Allen. I'm slightly concerned that we may see a repeat of that unless we figure something out. Ross may need to be our lockdown defender if someone starts going nuclear on us.

I think anybody that has 2 eyeballs knows this team is susceptible to dominant scorers. Unless the scorer is someone of McNeeley or Ross's size, we are going to struggle, as we have... This is why Solo taking the step this season as a ballhawk on defense is a MUST, otherwise Nowell enters the lineup. The X game was a good step in the right direction for him.

 

[aceboon]

I'm surprised at how many posts I've read since the Xavier game that made it seem like Xavier was throwing up prayers and got lucky, the 3 pt defense with guys going under screens, miscommunicating on switches, or just being late to contest after the switch was not good for the most part. some of the shots were tough but by that point guys were already in a rhythm so it shouldn't be a surprise that they were able to hit contested shots once their confidence was up.

 

[Kenny11]

it will get better. Some of it is simply because we won back to back championships and the opponents are super motivated and focused

 

[HooperScooper]

Also, thanks for looking up and confirming that we still are allowing one of the lower #'s of attempts per game this year.

It bodes well because our perimeter D is getting visually much better. Players are stepping up and the coaches are implementing some adjustments with rotations and strategy.

The other thing we really need to recognize is that most of the KenPom Top 80 teams that we have played (4/7) are currently in the Top 30 for 3pt shooting %.

They are just more skilled and more likely to "go off" on any given night than a poor-shooting 3pt team. Check this out for rankings for 3pt shooting and actual %:

Memphis - 3rd (42%)
Dayton - 71st (37%)
Colorado - 28th (39%)
Baylor - 45th (38%)
Gonzaga - 117th (35%)
Texas - 6th (41%)
Xavier - 8th (41%)

Check out the non-luck adjusted metrics for us in Dec vs. KP Top 100 teams:. Note the 3pt% and overall above-average performance in nearly all important stats:
View attachment 105589

Now check out the luck-adjusted stats:
View attachment 105590




I think we need to just relax a little.

Someone needs to translate what I'm looking at. My ADHD kicks in after 5 seconds and I have no idea how to interpret this. Can someone give us a short explanation on what this means? TIA.

 

[HooperScooper]

it will get better. Some of it is simply because we won back to back championships and the opponents are super motivated and focused

I don't buy that explanation. So teams that are extra motivated shoot a better percentage from 3? I can buy that teams maybe play harder and focus more on defense or rebound with more abandon. But I don't think it causes teams to shoot a better percentage from three.

 

[Stinger92860]

We are currently at #349 at 39%. The Zags are #2.
I’m trying to figure out if this is a deficiency on individual coverage or are we pulling guys in on help defense inside to leave shooters open and get rebounds in a Hurley planned defense scheme. It seems like it’s more than just teams got hot and shot the lights out. Every game.

Data, like ball, don’t lie.