3/12 Metrics

[bendm]

Some of these teams know how to bamboozle the computers - StM is one of them. I'm with you 100% on them.

And Gonzaga continues to bamboozle by beating them

 

[ctbro1999]

Rooting for Colorado to keep winning to make our loss to them less bad!

Hey now, they won!
Even if they get clobbered by Houston tomorrow, that should bump their metrics up....which in turn will help ours too.

 

[Pmac923]

If those are the teams bucking for the 7 seed, there are 4 teams better than us, unfortunately

I don’t see that. Not on a neutral court. We haven’t lost a game in March in 2 years. Seed us wherever.

 

[bendm]

UConn:
NET: 30; KenPom: 34; BPI: 17
22:9; 14-6 in the BE; Road/Neutral: 8-7
Quad 1: 5-5; Quad 2: 7-3; Quad 3: 4-1 Quad 4: 6-0

Missouri
NET: 20; KenPom: 20; BPI: 30
21-10; 10-8 in SEC: Road/Neutral: 3-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 3-0; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 8-0

BYU:
NET: 26; KenPom 24; BPI: 24
23-8; 14-6 in B12; Road/Neutral 8-6
Quad 1: 6-6; Quad 2: 7-2; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 6-0

Marquette:
NET: 25; KenPom: 26; BPI: 19
22-9; 13-7 in the BE; Road/Neutral: 8-6
Quad 1: 5-8; Quad 2: 7-1; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 5-0

Kansas:
NET: 18; KenPom: 21; BPI: 12
20-11; 11-9 in B12; Road/Neutal: 6-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 6-1; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 3-0

Memphis:
NET: 49: KenPom: 48; BPI: 42
26-5; 16-2 in American; Road/Neutral: 12-3
Quad 1: 6-1; Quad 2: 5-1; Quad 3: 9-3; Quad 4: 6-0

Miss St.
NET: 34; KenPom: 32; BPI: 37
20-11; 8-10 in SEC; Road/Neutral: 10-6
Quad 1: 7-9; Quad 2: 5-2; Quad 3: 2-0; Quad 4: 6-0

Gonzaga:
NET: 8; KenPom: 9; BPI: 9
25-8; 14-4 in WCC; Road/Neutral: 12-6
Quad 1: 4-6; Quad 2: 6-2; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 10-0

Creighton:
NET: 38; KenPom: 36; BPI: 25
22-9; 15-5 in BE; Road/Neutral: 7-6
Quad 1: 5-6; Quad 2: 6-3; Quad 3: 6-0; Quad 4: 5-0

New Mexico:
NET: 41; KenPom: 41; BPI: 47
24-6; 17-3 in MW: Road/Neutral: 9-5
Quad 1: 3-3; Quad 2: 8-1; Quad 3: 3-2; Quad 4: 10-0

Georgia:
NET: 31; KenPom: 33; BPI: 38
20-11; 8-10 in SEC: Road/Neutral: 5-8
Quad 1: 4-10; Quad 2: 5-1; Quad 3: 3-0; Quad 4: 8-0

West Virginia:
NET: 47; KenPom: 51; BPI: 48
19-12; 10-10 in B12: Road/Neutral: 6-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 4-2; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 5-0

Colorado just beat WVU. Doubly good for us.

 

[ctbro1999]

Colorado just beat WVU. Doubly good for us.

WVU very bubblelicious now.

 

[UCFan1513]

Colorado over WVU and Texas smoking Vandy both great for the resume. Seton Hall is the one you wish you could have back. Regardless, 6/7 seed is in UConn’s control to seize

 

[bendm]

WVU very bubblelicious now.

Double bubbleicious

 

[ctbro1999]

Lol holy crap Colorado lost 13 in a row at one point this season.

 

[Cam24]

Quad 1A (NET top 15 home, top 25 neutral, top 40 away)

UConn: 3-1
St John's: 2-1
Marquette: 2-4
Creighton: 1-4
Xavier: 1-3
Nova, Georgetown, Butler, Prov, DePaul, Seton Hall: 0-28

 

[ec33]

This was the Big EAst in 2011. It did so well OOC early in the season that a team that finished NINTH in the regular season could win the tourney and end up as a 4 seed in the NCAAs. But that was us, so no one complained.

The only way to rate conferences is based on OOC play. Because it was months before the NCAAs it's not nearly as good a predictive tool as if teams had their OOC games spread out throughout the year, but it's still all computers have to go on.

Any SEC team playing today winning the conference tournament would likely be more impressive than the UConn's 2011 BET run.

 

[RuffRuff]

New BM out and we moved one spot back to the 3rd 8 seed, just behind the zags.

 

[willie99]

I’ll be honest. I don’t get the St. Mary’s hype. Consistently projected a 5 seed. Best win is Gonzaga twice and Nebraska? Good team but 5 seed good? I’ll take the 12/5 underdog.

And they're not alone. We're better than and would be favored over at least half the teams rated above us

 

[Matt1010]

And they're not alone. We're better than and would be favored over at least half the teams rated above us

Based on what? We're Kenpom #34 and haven't beaten a single team that's projecting better than a 7 seed. We wouldn't be favored over more than 2-3 teams that are currently ahead of us.

 

[RuffRuff]

 

[Pmac923]

Based on what? We're Kenpom #34 and haven't beaten a single team that's projecting better than a 7 seed. We wouldn't be favored over more than 2-3 teams that are currently ahead of us.

To be fair we haven’t played really any of those types of teams all year except St Hohn’s. There’s no way anyone is laying more than 7 points against us on a neutral court.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Many of them are highly rated because they beat good teams OOC, even if they took some lumps in conference.

Almost all the teams in this batch have better wins than our best win, which I assume is at Marquette (unless you're going solely by metrics, in which case Gonzaga is a Top 10 win).

There are definitely some shaky SEC teams, though. I'm not at all afraid of Missouri, Ole Miss, A&M, Georgia, Miss State.

Missouri: wins over Alabama, Florida, Kansas
Ole Miss: wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama
A&M: win over Purdue
Georgia: wins over St. John's, Kentucky, Florida
MSU: win over Memphis

The whole conference killed it in OOC, so I don't know how you account for that other than rewarding them with a bunch of bids, even if I think some of them, like the above five, are fairly mid and probably won't go too far.

I get that the SEC is going to get a lot of bids, but a case could be made for the SEC to get 14 bids, and I have a hard time believing the #14 team in the SEC is actually better than the #5 team in the Big East or #8 team in the Big 10 or Big 12.

It is also amazing that the SEC seems to keep getting exactly the right combination of conference game outcomes to maximize the league’s bids. The SEC has traditionally been very lucky this way in football too. Also interesting that other conferences don’t get lucky this way nearly as consistently. At what point does it stop being luck?

 

[willie99]

Based on what? We're Kenpom #34 and haven't beaten a single team that's projecting better than a 7 seed. We wouldn't be favored over more than 2-3 teams that are currently ahead of us.

Based on eye test, talent, coaching, Vegas and tradition. Metrics are a tool, they're meant to be a tool, it's not gospel like metric geeks think

We're 4-2 against teams ranked above us in the very metrics you cite. Beating 3 out of 4 teams

Teams ranked ahead of us that we're better than and we'd be favored

Gonzaga
Marquette
Baylor

We beat those 3 teams

Then

GA
OR
VCU
MI
UCLA
Louisville
St Mary's
Clemson
IL

and others

Your metrics didn't have us winning in 2023, 2014 or 2011 either.

Act like you've been there before. UConn fans should understand this stuff more so than any other fanbase in the country

 

[UCLJ0211]

Baylor just slipped back into top 30 NET, so we have 6 quad 1 wins again.

 

[tzznandrew]

I get that the SEC is going to get a lot of bids, but a case could be made for the SEC to get 14 bids, and I have a hard time believing the #14 team in the SEC is actually better than the #5 team in the Big East or #8 team in the Big 10 or Big 12.

I agree with this. I think Xavier is better than Texas/Oklahoma (the two teams tied in the 14th spot). I think Xavier, right now, would probably beat 9-16 in the SEC, and have a good chance against 5-8.

That said, you have to look at resumes, and Xavier sort of flopped OOC whereas those mid SEC teams did not (though Freemantle was out). They got slaughtered by Michigan, lost to a 16-16 TCU, and lost to Cincy. If they went 1-2 rather than 0-3, they'd be safely in, and 2-1 above bid stealers. It was in their hands and they failed.

On your second part, Georgia and Vandy were both put in difficult spots with losses against other bubble teams. Arkansas's regular season loss to South Carolina was not great, but the die is sort of cast. I'd say this...I don't think there's any conspiracy, but I don't think the SEC or the ACC would be cool with a sub-200 team absolutely mauling their marquee team in a close game and stealing a win. When bad teams beat Kentucky or Duke, they usually have to actually play well, not just push, grab, and pull their way to victory, and in that sense I think the Big East does a poorer job protecting their brands, and thus their conference's bids than some others. It's strange that the BE's marquee team has played markedly better OOC for a few years running...

 

[FfldCntyFan]

If our tournament games were scheduled to be played on a pocket calculator I would be very concerned.

I don't know how things will fall out but I believe we will have at least a puncher's chance in every game we play from here on out.

 

[JB75]

They said this in Full Ride on XM this morning. If we were an 8 it would the strongest 8 ever.

If we win tonight - we are off the 8 line. That’s crazy. I dont care what the metrics or Lunardi think. No way in this down year there are 30 teams better than us. Actually, I think we got off the 8 line after the Marquette win last week. Tonight will solidify it. I think with every game we win this weekend we move up a seed line. 8,7,6 etc

 

[tzznandrew]

If our tournament games were scheduled to be played on a pocket calculator I would be very concerned.

I don't know how things will fall out but I believe we will have at least a puncher's chance in every game we play from here on out.

We're not a Top 4 seed, so every game from here on out is against a fairly decent team. This team has the talent to win any game on a given night if 3s are falling, and have the chance to lose to anyone as well. It's going to be a fun 2-9 games, so we got that going for us.

 

[tzznandrew]

If we win tonight - we are off the 8 line. That’s crazy. I dont care what the metrics or Lunardi think. No way in this down year there are 30 teams better than us. Actually, I think we got off the 8 line after the Marquette win last week. Tonight will solidify it. I think with every game we win this weekend we move up a seed line. 8,7,6 etc

I want to believe that but, just look at who we've beaten. Our best win is against a team on the 7 line. And the teams on the 6-8 line all have better top-end wins than us while having avoided Q3 losses.

It sucks, but it's true. It's going to take more than beating an NIT team and losing to a 9-10 seed to crawl off the 8 line.

 

[RuffRuff]

I want to believe that but, just look at who we've beaten. Our best win is against a team on the 7 line. And the teams on the 6-8 line all have better top-end wins than us while having avoided Q3 losses.

It sucks, but it's true. It's going to take more than beating an NIT team and losing to a 9-10 seed to crawl off the 8 line.

It’s entirely incorrect, so don’t bother trying to believe it.

 

[Get a Job]

New BM out and we moved one spot back to the 3rd 8 seed, just behind the zags.

Good for you, man, checkin' those seed lines on the toilet. Multitasking!