23 wins

[willie99]

We're running the table

 

[AZHuskiePop]

If we break this down further, if we sweep home games, we need 3 wins out of:

• @ Villanova
• @ Cincinnati
• @ Memphis
• @ Houston
• @ Tulsa
• @ Temple
• @ SMU

@Temple, @Tulsa and @SMU would be the obvious candidates. BUT we likely won't sweep at home, so we'll likely need 1 or 2 from:

• @ Villanova
• @ Cincinnati
• @ Memphis
• @ Houston

Getting @Cincy this week is huge. It's likely the most winnable game from those 4, and it allows us to drop a game to Memphis, Wichita, or Houston at home (or the dreaded Tulsa road game)..

Omitted @USF game

 

[AZHuskiePop]

I think 23 is doable barring an AAC conspiracy
But it’s a moot point because we’re winning the AAC tourney
You heard it here first.
To paraphrase a wise former UConn guard
We’re leaving the AAC with a bitter taste of UConn in their mouths

 

[uconngb]

While I'd love to be optimistic, a sober look at what the team has achieved thus far isn't particularly encouraging, especially as UConn hasn't yet played a true road game.

Wins (current KP ratings):
SHU 179
Florida 24 (Neutral)
Buffalo 125
Miami 81 (Neutral)
Maine 345
Iona 220
St Peters 287
UNH 281
NJIT 267

So one "good" win.

Losses:
St. Joe's 245
Xavier 30 (Neutral)
Indiana 40 (MSG)

One very bad loss and two close "good" losses.

Spitballing going forward, there are three games vs teams ranked >200. Obviously need to win all of those, so 3-0. Another bad loss and there's no NCAA to discuss.
Five games vs teams 101-200. Probably need all 5, but let's say 4-1 because there's always one f-up.
Five games vs teams 51-99 (H/A v. Cincy and Temple, plus @SMU). I don't believe UConn will sweep either series, and have never won @SMU, so let's say 2-3.

That gets us to 9-4 w/o playing teams likely to be ranked. In those six games I think UConn will go 2-4, given three of those games are back-to-back-to-back with the last two on the road. It would be nice to take all three home games, although I personally don't think the kids are ready for WSU yet.

L - WSU (XL) 31
L - @Nova 21
L - @Hou 27
L - @Mem 28
W - Mem (XL)
W - Hou (Gampel)

That gives us 11-8 for the remainder of the regular season, for a 20-11 overall record. 11-7 in AAC play probably gets a 5 seed in AAC tourney. If UConn can go 2-1 in the tourney, that should be enough to squeak in at 22-12, wtih at least three wins vs top-50 teams vs one bad loss in what looks like a soft bubble year. Caveat is tourney is in Ft. Worth and it's certainly possible UConn vs SMU is the 2nd game.

Since when is Gampel a neutral court? I realize no one shows up anymore, but they were actually there for the Florida game.

 

[auror]

Omitted @USF game

It was in his "Must Wins" section, so not an option in that grouping. We have little chance of getting to 24 wins if we don't win that one.

 

[UConn3432]

The st joes bad loss will look a lot less bad if bouknight becomes the player we all think he can be by March.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

How many wins will it take to get UConn into the NIT?

 

[Hi-Low]

I don't see much north of 20, I expect we'll continue to be very inconsistent and 9-9 in AAC most likely outcome since can't win on the road, maybe 10-8.

If get 20 wins we'll get a NIT bid probably, I look at the rest of the schedule though and I have a hard time finding 11 more wins.

 

[alphasigko]

UConn can beat any team in the AAC.

VERY doubtful after what we witnessed yesterday against Cincinnati.

 

[The Funster]

We dropped 16 spots in the NET rating.

What win out there will raise up 16 spots. The team has a long road to hoe and there is very little room for error.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

One game at a time. An NCAA Bid is a fantasy for now. UConn needs a win over USF.