23 wins

[nelsonmuntz]

That is what it will probably take for UConn to get an at-large bid to the NCAA men's basketball tournament. The Huskies got #9 today, and need 14 more. UConn used a mulligan or two in the non-conference part of its schedule, and now they just need to win.

 

[Travelman6]

13-6 to close the season? Depends on what those 13 wins are. Nova, at Cincy to open AAC play + home vs Cincy later, two Memphis games, at Houston, Witchita and at Temple will prove to be the toughest games but if UConn can go 4-4 vs that I like their chances to go 9-2 vs the rest and make it. Take care of business vs Tulane, ECU, USF and Tulsa, no WTF losses among those 4 as that is also super important (or if they go 6-2 vs the better part of the remaining schedule, maybe they can afford 8-3 vs the lower tier teams). UConn (fans too) need to realize UConn already had their ONE WTF loss vs St. Joes and can not really afford another one vs the 3 or 4 dregs of the aac. .500 vs the Top 4 or 5 of the aac, AT LEAST.

 

[storrsroars]

While I'd love to be optimistic, a sober look at what the team has achieved thus far isn't particularly encouraging, especially as UConn hasn't yet played a true road game.

Wins (current KP ratings):
SHU 179
Florida 24 (Neutral)
Buffalo 125
Miami 81 (Neutral)
Maine 345
Iona 220
St Peters 287
UNH 281
NJIT 267

So one "good" win.

Losses:
St. Joe's 245
Xavier 30 (Neutral)
Indiana 40 (MSG)

One very bad loss and two close "good" losses.

Spitballing going forward, there are three games vs teams ranked >200. Obviously need to win all of those, so 3-0. Another bad loss and there's no NCAA to discuss.
Five games vs teams 101-200. Probably need all 5, but let's say 4-1 because there's always one f-up.
Five games vs teams 51-99 (H/A v. Cincy and Temple, plus @SMU). I don't believe UConn will sweep either series, and have never won @SMU, so let's say 2-3.

That gets us to 9-4 w/o playing teams likely to be ranked. In those six games I think UConn will go 2-4, given three of those games are back-to-back-to-back with the last two on the road. It would be nice to take all three home games, although I personally don't think the kids are ready for WSU yet.

L - WSU (XL) 31
L - @Nova 21
L - @Hou 27
L - @Mem 28
W - Mem (XL)
W - Hou (Gampel)

That gives us 11-8 for the remainder of the regular season, for a 20-11 overall record. 11-7 in AAC play probably gets a 5 seed in AAC tourney. If UConn can go 2-1 in the tourney, that should be enough to squeak in at 22-12, wtih at least three wins vs top-50 teams vs one bad loss in what looks like a soft bubble year. Caveat is tourney is in Ft. Worth and it's certainly possible UConn vs SMU is the 2nd game.

 

[calluke]

Whatever Nelson predicts will undoubtedly be wrong.

 

[businesslawyer]

Very, very hard to get a read on this team. The single biggest thing I have to see is the mental toughness to win the games that could go either way down the stretch, and to play as well on the road as on neutral courts. I still believe there is enough talent and depth on this team to be a Top 40 team and in the tourney, but they have to show that the talent and depth that gave them a chance for huge wins versus Indiana and Xavier can translate to beating good teams.

But if we only go 2-3 against teams rated 51 to 100, we don't deserve to be in the tourney and the rest of this discussion isn't meaningful.

 

[HuskyHawk]

While I'd love to be optimistic, a sober look at what the team has achieved thus far isn't particularly encouraging, especially as UConn hasn't yet played a true road game.

Wins (current KP ratings):
SHU 179
Florida 24 (Neutral)
Buffalo 125
Miami 81 (Neutral)
Maine 345
Iona 220
St Peters 287
UNH 281
NJIT 267

So one "good" win.

Losses:
St. Joe's 245
Xavier 30 (Neutral)
Indiana 40 (MSG)

One very bad loss and two close "good" losses.

Spitballing going forward, there are three games vs teams ranked >200. Obviously need to win all of those, so 3-0. Another bad loss and there's no NCAA to discuss.
Five games vs teams 101-200. Probably need all 5, but let's say 4-1 because there's always one f-up.
Five games vs teams 51-99 (H/A v. Cincy and Temple, plus @SMU). I don't believe UConn will sweep either series, and have never won @SMU, so let's say 2-3.

That gets us to 9-4 w/o playing teams likely to be ranked. In those six games I think UConn will go 2-4, given three of those games are back-to-back-to-back with the last two on the road. It would be nice to take all three home games, although I personally don't think the kids are ready for WSU yet.

L - WSU (XL) 31
L - @Nova 21
L - @Hou 27
L - @Mem 28
W - Mem (XL)
W - Hou (Gampel)

That gives us 11-8 for the remainder of the regular season, for a 20-11 overall record. 11-7 in AAC play probably gets a 5 seed in AAC tourney. If UConn can go 2-1 in the tourney, that should be enough to squeak in at 22-12, wtih at least three wins vs top-50 teams vs one bad loss in what looks like a soft bubble year. Caveat is tourney is in Ft. Worth and it's certainly possible UConn vs SMU is the 2nd game.

I don't think this is fair. The "loss" to Xavier was in double OT and they had to hit a miracle deep three to send it to OT. With IU we were dominating that game until foul trouble killed us. If we play IU ten times, we win 7 of those. St. Joes we'd beat 99 times out of 100. Unfortunately they got the 1%.

UConn can beat any team in the AAC.

 

[ToolzieFan]

While I'd love to be optimistic, a sober look at what the team has achieved thus far isn't particularly encouraging, especially as UConn hasn't yet played a true road game.

Wins (current KP ratings):
SHU 179
Florida 24 (Neutral)
Buffalo 125
Miami 81 (Neutral)
Maine 345
Iona 220
St Peters 287
UNH 281
NJIT 267

So one "good" win.

Losses:
St. Joe's 245
Xavier 30 (Neutral)
Indiana 40 (MSG)

One very bad loss and two close "good" losses.

Spitballing going forward, there are three games vs teams ranked >200. Obviously need to win all of those, so 3-0. Another bad loss and there's no NCAA to discuss.
Five games vs teams 101-200. Probably need all 5, but let's say 4-1 because there's always one f-up.
Five games vs teams 51-99 (H/A v. Cincy and Temple, plus @SMU). I don't believe UConn will sweep either series, and have never won @SMU, so let's say 2-3.

That gets us to 9-4 w/o playing teams likely to be ranked. In those six games I think UConn will go 2-4, given three of those games are back-to-back-to-back with the last two on the road. It would be nice to take all three home games, although I personally don't think the kids are ready for WSU yet.

L - WSU (XL) 31
L - @Nova 21
L - @Hou 27
L - @Mem 28
W - Mem (XL)
W - Hou (Gampel)

That gives us 11-8 for the remainder of the regular season, for a 20-11 overall record. 11-7 in AAC play probably gets a 5 seed in AAC tourney. If UConn can go 2-1 in the tourney, that should be enough to squeak in at 22-12, with at least three wins vs top-50 teams vs one bad loss in what looks like a soft bubble year. Caveat is tourney is in Ft. Worth and it's certainly possible UConn vs SMU is the 2nd game.

Your reasoning is pretty solid. On a related note, KenPom has us projected at 20-11 overall and 11-7 in the AAC. Our projected losses are at Cincinnati, at Villanova, at Houston, at Memphis, and at Temple. Several of those games, and several of our projected wins, are by 3 points or fewer, which is why the losses don't add up to 11. 20-11 is a fair projection. I say we'll win 21. Depending on luck, I could see us anywhere from 19-23 wins. If we win the games we are supposed to, get a solid road win or two, and win two games in the AAC tourney (pushing us to 23 or 24 wins), we'd be solidly in the tournament discussion.

 

[Dabutlerdidit]

I don't think this is fair. The "loss" to Xavier was in double OT and they had to hit a miracle deep three to send it to OT. With IU we were dominating that game until foul trouble killed us. If we play IU ten times, we win 7 of those. St. Joes we'd beat 99 times out of 100. Unfortunately they got the 1%.

If there was a common thread it would be lack of focus

 

[bmayuc]

20-21 we are in the NIT
24+ we are in the NCAAs

anywhere in between, its bubble time

Scenario A(worst case): 11-8 or better and we are probably in postseason which will be a win

Scenario B(best case)15-4 we are golden.

Scenario C(most probable) 13-6 - firmly on the bubble

 

[storrsroars]

I don't think this is fair. The "loss" to Xavier was in double OT and they had to hit a miracle deep three to send it to OT. With IU we were dominating that game until foul trouble killed us. If we play IU ten times, we win 7 of those. St. Joes we'd beat 99 times out of 100. Unfortunately they got the 1%.

UConn can beat any team in the AAC.

Remember that in the loss to Xavier, three of their guys had fouled out, including their top two scorers. Yet our boys couldn't close it out.

And as far as St Joe's goes, as someone else inferred, you don't get to have two really bad losses when you're around the bubble.

 

[freescooter]

I’m not seeing all this talent that will carry us to the tournament. The back court is pretty average, Carlton would be a bench guy at a big time program. I think Akok has the potential to be memorable if he works at it and doesn’t listen to the likely hangers on who tell him he is NBA ready before he really is. Again on a top team he is likely the 6th man this year and the star next. After Bouknight the bench is pretty thin too. This is probably a bubble team. More likely NIT bound which my niece likened to hoping for a prom date from the captain of the football team but getting asked by the captain of the math team.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Whatever Nelson predicts will undoubtedly be wrong.

Shhh. Grown ups are talking here.

 

[intlzncster]

Why 23 wins? It really depends how we finish relative to the rest of the conference.

Obv depends on how the season shakes out, but it could very well be a 2-3 bid year. And the AAC is not strong this year.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

While I'd love to be optimistic, a sober look at what the team has achieved thus far isn't particularly encouraging, especially as UConn hasn't yet played a true road game.

Wins (current KP ratings):
SHU 179
Florida 24 (Neutral)
Buffalo 125
Miami 81 (Neutral)
Maine 345
Iona 220
St Peters 287
UNH 281
NJIT 267

So one "good" win.

Losses:
St. Joe's 245
Xavier 30 (Neutral)
Indiana 40 (MSG)

One very bad loss and two close "good" losses.

Spitballing going forward, there are three games vs teams ranked >200. Obviously need to win all of those, so 3-0. Another bad loss and there's no NCAA to discuss.
Five games vs teams 101-200. Probably need all 5, but let's say 4-1 because there's always one f-up.
Five games vs teams 51-99 (H/A v. Cincy and Temple, plus @SMU). I don't believe UConn will sweep either series, and have never won @SMU, so let's say 2-3.

That gets us to 9-4 w/o playing teams likely to be ranked. In those six games I think UConn will go 2-4, given three of those games are back-to-back-to-back with the last two on the road. It would be nice to take all three home games, although I personally don't think the kids are ready for WSU yet.

L - WSU (XL) 31
L - @Nova 21
L - @Hou 27
L - @Mem 28
W - Mem (XL)
W - Hou (Gampel)

That gives us 11-8 for the remainder of the regular season, for a 20-11 overall record. 11-7 in AAC play probably gets a 5 seed in AAC tourney. If UConn can go 2-1 in the tourney, that should be enough to squeak in at 22-12, wtih at least three wins vs top-50 teams vs one bad loss in what looks like a soft bubble year. Caveat is tourney is in Ft. Worth and it's certainly possible UConn vs SMU is the 2nd game.

When you get to March, all the tournament resumes look a lot alike on the fat part of the distribution curve of bubble teams. The teams that are going to the Dance pulled out one or two more of those 26-50 games and have 1 fewer loss to teams outside the top 100. It will be that close. If UConn had beaten any of St. Joe's, Xavier or Indiana, we would all feel pretty good about our tournament chances right now.

This is why I love college basketball. Every single game, all over the country, matters in deciding who makes the tournament. Compare this to college football, where seconds after a team loses its second game, the rest of its season becomes irrelevant unless you care who plays in the Weedeater Bowl or whatever.

 

[gtcam]

Why 23 wins? It really depends how we finish relative to the rest of the conference.

Obv depends on how the season shakes out, but it could very well be a 2-3 bid year. And the AAC is not strong this year.

The AAC is not overly weak either
Houston, Memphis, Cinci, WSU, Temple and UConn all have a shot at a bid
Yes the bottom sucks but the top 6 are all legitimate

 

[husky429]

I’m not seeing all this talent that will carry us to the tournament. The back court is pretty average, Carlton would be a bench guy at a big time program. I think Akok has the potential to be memorable if he works at it and doesn’t listen to the likely hangers on who tell him he is NBA ready before he really is. Again on a top team he is likely the 6th man this year and the star next. After Bouknight the bench is pretty thin too. This is probably a bubble team. More likely NIT bound which my niece likened to hoping for a prom date from the captain of the football team but getting asked by the captain of the math team.

It has nothing to do with hangers on for Akok. He will test the draft. If he is told he will go in the first round, he will leave.

I suspect he'll be told 1 more year. Needs to be a 12+ppg guy. Show a bigger 3pt sample size and a little more handle. Definitely needs to show more comfort and strength on the perimeter.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Why 23 wins? It really depends how we finish relative to the rest of the conference.

Obv depends on how the season shakes out, but it could very well be a 2-3 bid year. And the AAC is not strong this year.

Order of finish in a conference is not a criteria for getting a bid.

The AAC is the 7th best conference in the computer rankings, and is probably about a 3 bid league. If UConn wins 23 games, they will probably have a NET ranking in the 30's or 40's, and that should be good enough for a bid.

You can typically estimate within about 1 bid either direction, the number of bids a conference will get by this point in the season.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It has nothing to do with hangers on for Akok. He will test the draft. If he is told he will go in the first round, he will leave.

I suspect he'll be told 1 more year. Needs to be a 12+ppg guy. Show a bigger 3pt sample size and a little more handle. Definitely needs to show more comfort and strength on the perimeter.

Can we put the "This UConn bench player will be the #1 pick" discussion in a different thread?

 

[gtcam]

When you get to March, all the tournament resumes look a lot alike on the fat part of the distribution curve of bubble teams. The teams that are going to the Dance pulled out one or two more of those 26-50 games and have 1 fewer loss to teams outside the top 100. It will be that close. If UConn had beaten any of St. Joe's, Xavier or Indiana, we would all feel pretty good about our tournament chances right now.

This is why I love college basketball. Every single game, all over the country, matters in deciding who makes the tournament. Compare this to college football, where seconds after a team loses its second game, the rest of its season becomes irrelevant unless you care who plays in the Weedeater Bowl or whatever.

How many games does a college football team play vs a college basketball team in a season????????????
Nearly every single game in college football also has some bearing on who makes the tournament (bowl games) and who makes the final 4 (playdowns)
I don't see how beating ST Joes would make any one feel better about tournament chances but it definitely makes it harder by a greater degree.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

How many games does a college football team play vs a college basketball team in a season????????????
Nearly every single game in college football also has some bearing on who makes the tournament (bowl games) and who makes the final 4 (playdowns)
I don't see how beating ST Joes would make any one feel better about tournament chances but it definitely makes it harder by a greater degree.

Bowl games are not a tournament, they are meaningless post-season exhibitions that are a waste of money and the top players routinely skip because they are so pointless.

The idea that the Final 4 in CFP is anything other than a popularity contest is blown up simply by looking at how teams schedule. There are entire conferences in College Football that refuse to play anyone decent.

 

[Dabutlerdidit]

we'll have a better feel for this team's post season prospects after we play @ Cincinnati

 

[intlzncster]

Order of finish in a conference is not a criteria for getting a bid.

The AAC is the 7th best conference in the computer rankings, and is probably about a 3 bid league. If UConn wins 23 games, they will probably have a NET ranking in the 30's or 40's, and that should be good enough for a bid.

You can typically estimate within about 1 bid either direction, the number of bids a conference will get by this point in the season.

And if you have more 23 win teams than there are bids? If the committee decides they don't want more than 3 bids for the AAC (they still use opinion at the end of the day), that excludes somebody.

 

[intlzncster]

The AAC is not overly weak either
Houston, Memphis, Cinci, WSU, Temple and UConn all have a shot at a bid
Yes the bottom sucks but the top 6 are all legitimate

It's about the 7th best league right now. Those teams are all OK, but not good.

 

[imno1]

I’m not seeing all this talent that will carry us to the tournament. The back court is pretty average, Carlton would be a bench guy at a big time program. I think Akok has the potential to be memorable if he works at it and doesn’t listen to the likely hangers on who tell him he is NBA ready before he really is. Again on a top team he is likely the 6th man this year and the star next. After Bouknight the bench is pretty thin too. This is probably a bubble team. More likely NIT bound which my niece likened to hoping for a prom date from the captain of the football team but getting asked by the captain of the math team.

Of course you don't see the talent. You haven't had a good word about the program since I joined. I think the talent and effort is there to win most games. Let's see if they can close some out. BTW Akok would be starting pretty much everywhere, You are not leaving a defense force like him on the bench.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

And if you have more 23 win teams than there are bids? If the committee decides they don't want more than 3 bids for the AAC (they still use opinion at the end of the day), that excludes somebody.

It is December 30th and I don't feel like building a decision tree with every potential outcome for the 3,000 or so remaining D1 basketball games.

I also know that past is generally prologue, and 23 wins from the AAC should be good enough for a bid. Most of the NCAA prediction sites agree with me.