It is a change from the past and a pretty big one. There is an obvious wealth transfer between the 27 conferences that are not a power conference and the new Power 4 because of the NIL affect. It can be seen in the next best conference, namely the Big East. In the past Big East coaches could sometimes develop a player that was somewhat off the radar in HS and turn them into a star.
Now if you do that, you are likely to lose that player. The player might like the program and the coach but still leave because the monetary differences are too big to ignore. Recent examples are Morrow from DePaul to LSU and Olson from Villanova to Iowa. Players used to leave because they were unhappy about playing time or a coach. Now they might leave the program and coach that elevated them to significant NIL possibilities, just because other Big East teams cannot compete with Power 4 schools in compensating players.
That is a new dynamic that means that the other conferences will probably lose many of their top players and the gap between the Power 4 and everyone else will get bigger specifically because of NIL opportunities. Uconn is an exception that can compete financially, but the other Big East schools cannot. Just a new reality that the Big East will probably lose ground to the Power 4 even if it is clearly the next best conference in the country.
I completely agree with you. My point was a broader one. There's always been a fairly significant gap between the have and have not schools. Certainly the transfer portal and nil operate in the favor of the halves. I'm not certain how significant this will be for the schools not in the power of four or top mid major conferences. That is 80% of players who attend have not schools will not be significantly changed from what their parents or grandparents experienced at have not schools in the past.
This will be exemplified Thursday in Arizona. The kitties from the dirty t a have school and in addition to the resources to pay their coach 1.2 million certainly have an nil collective and resources to induce transfer to their school. They do have a problem with a coach that seems to induce transfer out of the school but that's a different story.
Grand Canyon a 30 win team and NAU a 26 win are largely unaffected. The two transfers into Grand Canyon from UNLV came for reasons that I think have been timeless that is a new coach arrived and they didn't seem or appear to be valued by that coach.
NAU retained the same 11 players this year if they did the previous year. 2 years ago they did have a transfer in Leia Beattie due to I think family considerations.
So I do agree with you the transfer portal and financial considerations will certainly create tremendous churn among the 20% of the schools I would consider the halves. The 80% of students who attend the have not schools will be unaffected or marginal effect.
The positive is that the power of the NCAA to restrict both compensation and movement has largely been crushed. It always seemed to me to be both arbitrary and odd then a big-time coach could make a change and leave the school but that big time players could not. On the surface this type of discrimination seems pernicious.
On the issue of pay I have a similar perspective. While I don't grudge Dawn or Kim or Geno making huge bucks it seemed pernicious and unfair that the players who made them successful and generated hundreds of millions of dollars over time for the power four teams and their coaches received: well tuition and board? In other words peanuts. And not the Charles Schulz kind. I tend to be pretty much a free market guy but a Marxisn analysis seems on point here in terms of clear, obvious, intended exploitation.
I think also an additional movement toward a more reasonable compensation scheme we're going to have at least some transparency. We all know that players in the past received payment...under the table.
So will college sports change. Absolutely those changes continue the gap between The have and have not schools.
The the intense competition on the field, the court, or the pitch is now being extended into the labor market in an obvious and increasingly transparent manner.