I wouldn't focus on the bowl projections, outside of the playoffs and a few big bowls there's not much effort put in there more consulting a list of those eligible and filling in teams/throwing darts. Many of the sources have old/inaccurate information on bids, let alone the backup and pool/alternating conference arrangements, they don't double check regular season matchups. It's fun to click around them and look/root for things, but this early in the season there's not much to them; after the end of the regular season the leaks will start coming and these will start to have more value.
In my opinion there is nothing to worry about, among the potentially available teams from the G5 schools, UConn is almost certainly the top-choice out of the East (out west I do see teams that would be more desirable, if only for proximity reasons).
My reading of the bowl deals and the situation (it's hard since the conference & bowl sites don't do a great accounting of the pool and backup vs primary scenarios):
ACC: 10 bids
Holiday, Duke's Mayo, Las Vegas, Sun, Birmingham, Gator, Pop-Tarts, Fenway, Pinstripe, Military, Gasparilla (there are some pool and former Pac-10 considerations in here)
Eligible teams: 10 teams*
Bowl Eligible Cal actually fills legacy Pac-12 bowl slots not ACC bids
Potential Eligible: Florida State (@Florida)
The ACC probably will keep its champion in the top 5, meaning they'd need to fill 11 bids, assuming Florida State wins, they'll fill all 11.
Big XII: 7 bids
Alamo, Pop-Tarts, Texas, Liberty, Rate, Independence, ESPN Pool
Eligible Teams: 6 teams*
Bowl Eligible Utah, Arizona & Arizona State fill legacy Pac-12 bowl slots not Big XII bids
Potential Eligible: UCF (@BYU), Kansas State (vs Colorado), Baylor (vs Houston), Kansas (vs Utah)
Kansas State should win, the others will be underdogs, lets say worst case Baylor pulls off an upset at home. The Big XII champion will get into the playoff (both Texas Tech & BYU come from the Big XII pool) and there's a chance of the loser and/or Utah (which comes from the Pac-12) getting an at large.
The Big XII will fill its spots, it may actually end up with an open spot if none of UCF, Kansas, or Baylor pull off upsets or the loser of the title game gets an at large bid.
Big Ten: 7 bids
GameAbove, Rate, Pinstripe, Music City, Reliaquest, Citrus, Las Vegas
Eligible Teams: 8*
Bowl Eligible Oregon, USC & Washington fill legacy Pac-12 bowl slots not Big Ten bids
Potential Eligible: The winner of Penn State - Rutgers will be eligible, the loser is not
Both Indiana & Ohio State are in, Oregon probably lands an at large, which doesn't really help. Ultimately the Big Ten will have 9 bids from their own pool for 9 teams.
SEC: 9 bids
Citrus, Reliaquest, Gator, Music City, Texas, Liberty, Birmingham, Gasparilla, Duke's Mayo
Eligible teams: 10 teams
Potential Eligible: Kentucky (@ Louisville), Auburn (@Alabama), Mississippi St (vs Ole Miss)
The SEC is going to get a ton of teams into the playoff, figure they end up with 1 of their 3 potentials pulling off an upset to get them to 11 available teams. They get at least 4, probably 5 and possibly 6 teams into the playoff. Meaning multiple SEC bowls will be open.
Pac-12: 6 bids
Alamo, Holiday, Las Vegas, Sun, LA Bowl, ESPN Pool
Eligible teams: 7 teams
Potential Eligible: Washington State (vs Oregon State)
Washington State lost to Oregon State on the road in a close one, it probably wins the rematch. The Pac-12 spots will be filled & they may have one (Washington State) leftover, with Oregon likely claiming an at large playoff bid. There's the potential Utah could get an at large which would give Wazzou a home and keep them out of the group of teams looking for an open bid.
Even then UConn will be a more popular choice for any of the Eastern/Southeastern spots over the Cougars.
American: 8 primary bids
Military, Armed Forces, Fenway, Hawai'i + 4 from the pool (Frisco, Boca Raton, Cure, Gasparilla, Myrtle Beach, First Responder, New Mexico, Birmingham)
2 backup bids: Liberty Bowl, Quick Lane
Eligible teams: 7 teams
Potential Eligible: Army (vs Navy); Rice (@South Florida); Temple (@North Texas)
It's likely that the American winner will be the highest ranked Group of 5 team (consistently the committee has ranked them at the top between Memphis, Tulane & South Florida, despite James Madison having a higher poll standing)
If that happens the American has 9 bids to fill; and only Army seeming to have a chance (anything can happen in that Army - Navy game) of getting eligible, it feels like one of the American ties will be open to an at large.
Mountain West: 4 bids
LA, Arizona, ESPN Pool x2
1 backup bid: Rate
Eligible teams: 7 teams
Potential Eligible: none
There are more Mountain West teams than bid, the first conference that's certain to be a contributor. So after the first four are placed (probably San Diego State, Boise State, UNLV and then I'm going to assume New Mexico will have the edge in conference's directed placement) Utah State, Fresno State & Hawaii are cast to the at large pool; UConn is desirable for an eastern bowl then any of them. In the west perhaps not.
Sun Belt: 5 bids
Salute to Veterans, Cure, 68 Ventures, Myrtle Beach, New Orleans
2 backup bids: Independence, ESPN Pool
Eligible teams: 5 teams
Potential Eligible: Georgia Southern - Marshall & Arkansas St - App State winners are eligible, Texas State (vs South Alabama), Louisiana (vs ULM) can get eligible
The Sun Belt will have 7 and possibly 9 teams for 5 bids. Ultimately UConn is more desirable than any of the teams that will bleed out of the Sun Belt at large pool.
C-USA:7 6 bids
New Orleans, Independence,Bahamas, ESPN Pool x4
Eligible teams: 5 teams
Potential Eligible: Missouri State & Delaware (with win vs UTEP) are transitioning schools and only eligible with a waiver typically only granted if there aren't enough otherwise eligible teams. They may have a better chance getting the waiver if it's a C-USA guarantee spot.
C-USA doesn't have enough eligible teams and without a waiver won't have enough eligible teams, regardless of what Delaware does.
MAC:6 5 bids
Idaho Potato, Arizona, GameAbove,Bahamas, ESPN Pool x2
Eligible teams: 5 teams
Potential Eligible: Buffalo (vs Ohio)
The MAC has enough bids for the current teams, who knows if Buffalo gets eligible, UConn is more attractive than Buffalo though.
Long story short, I think there will be open bids from the SEC allotment at a minimum, which will result in some shuffling, but I feel confident UConn finds a spot.
In my opinion there is nothing to worry about, among the potentially available teams from the G5 schools, UConn is almost certainly the top-choice out of the East (out west I do see teams that would be more desirable, if only for proximity reasons).
My reading of the bowl deals and the situation (it's hard since the conference & bowl sites don't do a great accounting of the pool and backup vs primary scenarios):
ACC: 10 bids
Holiday, Duke's Mayo, Las Vegas, Sun, Birmingham, Gator, Pop-Tarts, Fenway, Pinstripe, Military, Gasparilla (there are some pool and former Pac-10 considerations in here)
Eligible teams: 10 teams*
Bowl Eligible Cal actually fills legacy Pac-12 bowl slots not ACC bids
Potential Eligible: Florida State (@Florida)
The ACC probably will keep its champion in the top 5, meaning they'd need to fill 11 bids, assuming Florida State wins, they'll fill all 11.
Big XII: 7 bids
Alamo, Pop-Tarts, Texas, Liberty, Rate, Independence, ESPN Pool
Eligible Teams: 6 teams*
Bowl Eligible Utah, Arizona & Arizona State fill legacy Pac-12 bowl slots not Big XII bids
Potential Eligible: UCF (@BYU), Kansas State (vs Colorado), Baylor (vs Houston), Kansas (vs Utah)
Kansas State should win, the others will be underdogs, lets say worst case Baylor pulls off an upset at home. The Big XII champion will get into the playoff (both Texas Tech & BYU come from the Big XII pool) and there's a chance of the loser and/or Utah (which comes from the Pac-12) getting an at large.
The Big XII will fill its spots, it may actually end up with an open spot if none of UCF, Kansas, or Baylor pull off upsets or the loser of the title game gets an at large bid.
Big Ten: 7 bids
GameAbove, Rate, Pinstripe, Music City, Reliaquest, Citrus, Las Vegas
Eligible Teams: 8*
Bowl Eligible Oregon, USC & Washington fill legacy Pac-12 bowl slots not Big Ten bids
Potential Eligible: The winner of Penn State - Rutgers will be eligible, the loser is not
Both Indiana & Ohio State are in, Oregon probably lands an at large, which doesn't really help. Ultimately the Big Ten will have 9 bids from their own pool for 9 teams.
SEC: 9 bids
Citrus, Reliaquest, Gator, Music City, Texas, Liberty, Birmingham, Gasparilla, Duke's Mayo
Eligible teams: 10 teams
Potential Eligible: Kentucky (@ Louisville), Auburn (@Alabama), Mississippi St (vs Ole Miss)
The SEC is going to get a ton of teams into the playoff, figure they end up with 1 of their 3 potentials pulling off an upset to get them to 11 available teams. They get at least 4, probably 5 and possibly 6 teams into the playoff. Meaning multiple SEC bowls will be open.
Pac-12: 6 bids
Alamo, Holiday, Las Vegas, Sun, LA Bowl, ESPN Pool
Eligible teams: 7 teams
Potential Eligible: Washington State (vs Oregon State)
Washington State lost to Oregon State on the road in a close one, it probably wins the rematch. The Pac-12 spots will be filled & they may have one (Washington State) leftover, with Oregon likely claiming an at large playoff bid. There's the potential Utah could get an at large which would give Wazzou a home and keep them out of the group of teams looking for an open bid.
Even then UConn will be a more popular choice for any of the Eastern/Southeastern spots over the Cougars.
American: 8 primary bids
Military, Armed Forces, Fenway, Hawai'i + 4 from the pool (Frisco, Boca Raton, Cure, Gasparilla, Myrtle Beach, First Responder, New Mexico, Birmingham)
2 backup bids: Liberty Bowl, Quick Lane
Eligible teams: 7 teams
Potential Eligible: Army (vs Navy); Rice (@South Florida); Temple (@North Texas)
It's likely that the American winner will be the highest ranked Group of 5 team (consistently the committee has ranked them at the top between Memphis, Tulane & South Florida, despite James Madison having a higher poll standing)
If that happens the American has 9 bids to fill; and only Army seeming to have a chance (anything can happen in that Army - Navy game) of getting eligible, it feels like one of the American ties will be open to an at large.
Mountain West: 4 bids
LA, Arizona, ESPN Pool x2
1 backup bid: Rate
Eligible teams: 7 teams
Potential Eligible: none
There are more Mountain West teams than bid, the first conference that's certain to be a contributor. So after the first four are placed (probably San Diego State, Boise State, UNLV and then I'm going to assume New Mexico will have the edge in conference's directed placement) Utah State, Fresno State & Hawaii are cast to the at large pool; UConn is desirable for an eastern bowl then any of them. In the west perhaps not.
Sun Belt: 5 bids
Salute to Veterans, Cure, 68 Ventures, Myrtle Beach, New Orleans
2 backup bids: Independence, ESPN Pool
Eligible teams: 5 teams
Potential Eligible: Georgia Southern - Marshall & Arkansas St - App State winners are eligible, Texas State (vs South Alabama), Louisiana (vs ULM) can get eligible
The Sun Belt will have 7 and possibly 9 teams for 5 bids. Ultimately UConn is more desirable than any of the teams that will bleed out of the Sun Belt at large pool.
C-USA:
New Orleans, Independence,
Eligible teams: 5 teams
Potential Eligible: Missouri State & Delaware (with win vs UTEP) are transitioning schools and only eligible with a waiver typically only granted if there aren't enough otherwise eligible teams. They may have a better chance getting the waiver if it's a C-USA guarantee spot.
C-USA doesn't have enough eligible teams and without a waiver won't have enough eligible teams, regardless of what Delaware does.
MAC:
Idaho Potato, Arizona, GameAbove,
Eligible teams: 5 teams
Potential Eligible: Buffalo (vs Ohio)
The MAC has enough bids for the current teams, who knows if Buffalo gets eligible, UConn is more attractive than Buffalo though.
Long story short, I think there will be open bids from the SEC allotment at a minimum, which will result in some shuffling, but I feel confident UConn finds a spot.
