2023-24 LSU Thread

[Darwin]

Regarding "I suspect LSU will run through their conference schedule easily enough outside of the SC matchup, where they will likely be favored due to it being a home game." I don't know how the gambling odds makers will rate it by Massey gives LSU only a 28% chance of winning. His score is SC 76 LSU 67.

If neither loses a game prior to that matchup Vegas will favor LSU @BR. I follow Massey closely and tbh, as good as that site is Vegas odds usually trump Massey predictions.

 

[DallasDomer]

If neither loses a game prior to that matchup Vegas will favor LSU @BR. I follow Massey closely and tbh, as good as that site is Vegas odds usually trump Massey predictions.

I have not done a historical comparison of Massey vs Vegas but my reaction is the opposite unless there is a significant injury just before the game. Vegas can react to that but Massey only updates overnight. It also depends on which Vegas source you choose. I'm not up for a lot of excel downloads and analysis but if someone else has done it I'd be interested.

 

[BRS24]

LSU only up 37-34 over Auburn at the half. Reese leading scorer and only one in double digits with 13 pts. Hailey Van Lith 1-5, 2 pts.

 

[JstVisiting]

LSU will be a 3 or 4 seed in March because of their weak schedule and the SEC being average this year.

That average SEC is the 2nd best conference in the country by ELO Rating, Massey, and RPI. It's good that we as SEC fans are used to excellence, but it's bad when we treat a down year for the SEC as a down year for any other conference.

In contrast, the Big Ten is the 5th rated conference by all three and the entire conference has two wins against ranked teams, both by Iowa. It's inferior by every measure. Yet their fans will beat their chest about the conference grind.

AP voting tends to be biased against the South enough without us poormouthing our own teams.

 

[DallasDomer]

LSU will be a 3 or 4 seed in March because of their weak schedule and the SEC being average this year.

And because they just lost to an unranked Auburn team by 5. They were out shot and out coached. Mulkey calling her last time out between Auburn free throws was a very poor decision.

 

[DallasDomer]

I have not done a historical comparison of Massey vs Vegas but my reaction is the opposite unless there is a significant injury just before the game. Vegas can react to that but Massey only updates overnight. It also depends on which Vegas source you choose. I'm not up for a lot of excel downloads and analysis but if someone else has done it I'd be interested.

I guess Massey was wrong when he showed LSU over Auburn by 10.5 , I see MGM had them by 13.5, worse than Massey but I don't know the rest of Vegas odds.

 

[GamecockFam]

That average SEC is the 2nd best conference in the country by ELO Rating, Massey, and RPI. It's good that we as SEC fans are used to excellence, but it's bad when we treat a down year for the SEC as a down year for any other conference.

In contrast, the Big Ten is the 5th rated conference by all three and the entire conference has two wins against ranked teams, both by Iowa. It's inferior by every measure. Yet their fans will beat their chest about the conference grind.

AP voting tends to be biased against the South enough without us poormouthing our own teams.

I think the issue with the SEC this season is that we only have LSU and South Carolina as top 16 candidates. With that said, I believe the SEC has a ton of above average teams. Pretty much every team but Kentucky, and maybe Georgia, will be competitive in the majority of their games. I think the SEC has a bunch of teams in that 25-100 range. Those teams don't get the press but they'll be a thorn in the side of top 25 teams.

 

[JellyBean]

Tough loss but just another example of when you are not on your game, especially your A game, anything can happen. Hats off to Auburn coaching staff and their players. They matched the physicality and toughness of LSU. They did not back down. They are slowly putting together something special in Auburn. LSU. Just learn from this game and move on. Y'all still good.

 

[DallasDomer]

I think the issue with the SEC this season is that we only have LSU and South Carolina as top 16 candidates. With that said, I believe the SEC has a ton of above average teams. Pretty much every team but Kentucky, and maybe Georgia, will be competitive in the majority of their games. I think the SEC has a bunch of teams in that 25-100 range. Those teams don't get the press but they'll be a thorn in the side of top 25 teams.

Only a few teams get a lot of press given how cut back the press coverage is by ESPN, who is the source for most of it. I don't think a lack of coverage is particular to the "25-100 range" in the SEC alone. It's the same for all power 5 and worse for the rest.

 

[cancontent]

And because they just lost to an unranked Auburn team by 5. They were out shot and out coached. Mulkey calling her last time out between Auburn free throws was a very poor decision.

That and allowing Reese to go iso and take it to the hoop. It didn't look good before she even started to drive to the basket. Auburn was totally expecting it and had it well scouted. Also thought Poa clogged up the lane which didn't help matters.

 

[GamecockFam]

Only a few teams get a lot of press given how cut back the press coverage is by ESPN, who is the source for most of it. I don't think a lack of coverage is particular to the "25-100 range" in the SEC alone. It's the same for all power 5 and worse for the rest.

My comment was alluding to the fact that there is less drop off in the SEC conference than other conferences when looking at the lower ranks, but lack of press leaves an assumption that the SEC is just like a typical conference where the bottom teams look drastically different than the top teams. I would argue that there isn't much drop off between the #3 and #12 teams in conference. I don't think any conference except for the PAC-12 can make that kind of claim this season.

 

[UConnCat]

That and allowing Reese to go iso and take it to the hoop. It didn't look good before she even started to drive to the basket. Auburn was totally expecting it and had it well scouted. Also thought Poa clogged up the lane which didn't help matters.

I was shocked by Mulkey's coaching decisions, from the timeout to the last play call and design.

Auburn (and everyone else watching) knew Angel would eventually go right the closer she got to the basket. She doesn't have a pull-up J so no need to worry about that. Also no need to worry about Angel passing the ball. Interesting point you raise about Poa. She definitely brought her defender (Mingo-Young) to the lane and she made the defensive play. Watching the replay it seems like she was supposed to be there -- otherwise the coaches surely would have been yelling for her to go to the near corner and take her defender with her. Normally Mulkey would have had Hailey Van Lith in the game to spread the floor but maybe she didn't think Auburn would have guarded her. Hailey Van Lith's stat line in 28 minutes: 1-9, 3 pts, 1 Ast, 3 TOs, 0 Rebs.

All in all, the last couple of minutes were a mess.

 

[oldhusky]

I haven't seen enough of LSU to know, but if I remember right, there were several questions about positions for certain players and chemistry heading into the season. Everyone knew Kim had acquired a ton of talent, but the fit was more in question. Reese didn't really want to be a 5, Morrow was probably going to play some at the 3, and Hailey Van Lith at the point.

With Morrow's track record from deep and Hailey Van Lith's previous roles being an undersized SG, it sounded to some like trying to put a square peg in a round hole. Kim accepted a major challenge bringing the portal talent onboard and trying to figure out how to make it work and the team become an efficient unit.

So at this point from afar it seems to me that Morrow has been a major addition, but both she and Reese are best at the 4, and expecting Morrow to be a 3pt shooter looks like a false hope. With Hailey Van Lith I know she has had injury issues, but has she been able to make the conversion to PG when needed effectively? Seems like a team with tons of talent that is still trying to figure it out. Curious what the people who see most of their games think.

 

[BigTenGuy]

That average SEC is the 2nd best conference in the country by ELO Rating, Massey, and RPI. It's good that we as SEC fans are used to excellence, but it's bad when we treat a down year for the SEC as a down year for any other conference.

In contrast, the Big Ten is the 5th rated conference by all three and the entire conference has two wins against ranked teams, both by Iowa. It's inferior by every measure. Yet their fans will beat their chest about the conference grind.

Fair point about the weakness of the Big Ten this year, but Big Ten conference play is a grind because they play 18 games and because they rig the schedule so the expected good teams play more games against each other, e.g., Iowa will play 4 games against Indiana and Ohio State. The SEC plays only 16 conference games, and seems to protect its good teams so for the second year in a row we have 1 regular season matchup between USC and LSU.

 

[LETTERL]

Fair point about the weakness of the Big Ten this year, but Big Ten conference play is a grind because they play 18 games and because they rig the schedule so the expected good teams play more games against each other, e.g., Iowa will play 4 games against Indiana and Ohio State. The SEC plays only 16 conference games, and seems to protect its good teams so for the second year in a row we have 1 regular season matchup between USC and LSU.

Is that how it is? I'm surprised the Big Ten doesn't have designated groupings who play each other twice, leaving one game each for the remaining teams.

The ACC has three pods. Teams within each pod play each other twice. Then, the other conference teams are played once.

Pod 1: Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Pod 2: Duke, UNC, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Pod 3: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest

 

[MSSportsGuy]

I haven't seen enough of LSU to know, but if I remember right, there were several questions about positions for certain players and chemistry heading into the season. Everyone knew Kim had acquired a ton of talent, but the fit was more in question. Reese didn't really want to be a 5, Morrow was probably going to play some at the 3, and Hailey Van Lith at the point.

With Morrow's track record from deep and Hailey Van Lith's previous roles being an undersized SG, it sounded to some like trying to put a square peg in a round hole. Kim accepted a major challenge bringing the portal talent onboard and trying to figure out how to make it work and the team become an efficient unit.

So at this point from afar it seems to me that Morrow has been a major addition, but both she and Reese are best at the 4, and expecting Morrow to be a 3pt shooter looks like a false hope. With Hailey Van Lith I know she has had injury issues, but has she been able to make the conversion to PG when needed effectively? Seems like a team with tons of talent that is still trying to figure it out. Curious what the people who see most of their games think.

This. I wondered how Reese and Morrow would play together and also if VL would be effective at point. Yesterday it looked painful as LSU struggled against an Auburn team that played well but isn't going to scare many opponents.

The final play call for Reese was a very poor decision by Kim. Angel was sloppy all game and tried to force too much when it was crunch time even before the end of the game.

 

[BigTenGuy]

Is that how it is?

Yes it is. The Big Ten tiers based on expected finish, so good teams play more games against the expected good teams, and bottom teams play more games against expected bottom teams:

“The Big Ten women's basketball schedule is determined annually based on predicted order of finish. The teams were tiered into like groups and those tiers were used to mathematically develop a competitively-balanced and equitable 18-game conference schedule with teams playing similar tiered teams more frequently.”

Big Ten Opponents Announced for 2023-24 Season - University of Minnesota Athletics

The Big Ten Conference has announced the slate of league opponents for the upcoming 2023-24 season, identifying which of the 13 other member schools the Minn...

gophersports.com

 

[Geew1992]

Got to wonder when LSU plays teams with great point guards, how the team will play

 

[cancontent]

Is that how it is? I'm surprised the Big Ten doesn't have designated groupings who play each other twice, leaving one game each for the remaining teams.

The ACC has three pods. Teams within each pod play each other twice. Then, the other conference teams are played once.

Pod 1: Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Pod 2: Duke, UNC, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Pod 3: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest

See your point, however the Big Ten model tries to ensure the top teams face each other twice a season, which helps provide some drama. The ACC model outlined doesn't. Mind you, there will be changes for the 2024-2025 season with 4 teams joining, so who knows going forward?

 

[LETTERL]

See your point, however the Big Ten model tries to ensure the top teams face each other twice a season, which helps provide some drama. The ACC model outlined doesn't. Mind you, there will be changes for the 2024-2025 season with 4 teams joining, so who knows going forward?

I agree. It just so happens that in the last few seasons, NC State's pod has been the most difficult. With the unbalanced scheduling, the current pod setup benefits those who play in weak pods for final conference standing (and claiming one of those precious double-byes needed to truly make a run at the ACCT title). If there was a power shift among the pods, I'd be all for it...but Pitt and BC don't show any signs of posing a significant threat in the northern pod...and Florida State seems to be the only dominant team in the southern pod.

That middle pod, though...geez, it's going to be a battle (and increased wear and tear on bodies) every night.

 

[BRS24]

She did credit Auburn, however quotes like these tend to negate it.

 

[triaddukefan]

I agree. It just so happens that in the last few seasons, NC State's pod has been the most difficult. With the unbalanced scheduling, the current pod setup benefits those who play in weak pods for final conference standing (and claiming one of those precious double-byes needed to truly make a run at the ACCT title). If there was a power shift among the pods, I'd be all for it...but Pitt and BC don't show any signs of posing a significant threat in the northern pod...and Florida State seems to be the only dominant team in the southern pod.

That middle pod, though...geez, it's going to be a battle (and increased wear and tear on bodies) every night.

Don't get me started

 

[JstVisiting]

...The SEC plays only 16 conference games, and seems to protect its good teams so for the second year in a row we have 1 regular season matchup between USC and LSU.

Particularly nefarious the way teams plan when to be good based on the rotating schedule. Everyone not named Iowa's winless record against the top 25 suggests that the extra two games is not the grind supporters suggest

 

[LwrcasefaN]

She did credit Auburn, however quotes like these tend to negate it.

View attachment 95216

So, they were depressed by their men's team? How bad did they lose?

 

[DallasDomer]

My comment was alluding to the fact that there is less drop off in the SEC conference than other conferences when looking at the lower ranks, but lack of press leaves an assumption that the SEC is just like a typical conference where the bottom teams look drastically different than the top teams. I would argue that there isn't much drop off between the #3 and #12 teams in conference. I don't think any conference except for the PAC-12 can make that kind of claim this season.

If you look at objective measures like Massey conference tables the SEC looks remarkably like every other P5 conference. For example SEC third team is ranked 32 twelfth 61. Big 15 & 124. ACC 16 & 75. Big 12 11 & 80. Pac 8 & 102.

I don't see the difference using objective measures. Actually your Pac12 listing looks worse than several others. Is there some deeper level of analysis? I admit I just looked and didn't do any averaging of teams 3-12.

If you look at his conference list that includes all teams the ratings are very close.

Massey Ratings - College Basketball Women's : NCAA D1 Ratings

Computer ratings and rankings for CBW (College Basketball Women's), with links to team predictions, scores, and schedules.

masseyratings.com

Fyi some of the pages used: Massey Ratings - Southeastern Conference

Massey Ratings - Big Twelve Conference

Big Twelve Conference scores and predictions for each game of the season's schedule

masseyratings.com

Massey Ratings - Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference scores and predictions for each game of the season's schedule

masseyratings.com

Massey Ratings - Big Ten Conference

Big Ten Conference scores and predictions for each game of the season's schedule

masseyratings.com

Massey Ratings - Pacific Twelve Conference

Pacific Twelve Conference scores and predictions for each game of the season's schedule

masseyratings.com