My honest, nonjudgmental question is why you thought the game would be a blowout 30 point win by UCONN?
Great Coach, one started down from what was a very accomplished team last season.
Me, I’d like to see UCONN every game comfortably, but that won’t always be in the cards (like an undefeated season), but scratching and clawing for a victory is a function of team growth-so I’m good with that.
I got it wrong, no doubt. But it wasn't completely unfounded.
I saw their previous outings and they didn't play well against creampuffs. I knew Jones would be a significant presence, but it seemed clear that she couldn't go a whole game, and I knew Sonya was a real scoring threat. On the minus side of the equation, I had seen what Gonzalez could do last season and she hadn't impressed me as a top-10 ready point guard, and though Holle has a decent midrange game, she is not one of Vic's better defenders.
What I hadn't expect to see was how effective Moore could be. She was limited by some bad calls, or the result would have been even closer. And the 2 freshmen, Muhammad and Mwenentanda were better than I had expected. they'll be something special eventually. I also hadn't expected such poor refereeing -- though in hindsight I probably should have, since they're out of practice, too. One consequence of the poor refereeing was that Lou was taken off the floor early by a poor call on her third foul.
So where I went obviously wrong was:
1) in expecting Lou to score more, but I think I get a pass on that one because of the refs. The bad calls weren't one sided though, since Moore was also taken off the floor by them
2) expecting better free throw shooting, which was naive of me, but here too Texas could have shot better from the stripe
3) not anticipating such a big let down in the final 4 mins. I think we were more tired than I expected, and Jones had a little more gas in the tank than I had credited her with.
The result is I was off by 24 or so pts. Had Lou been on the court more and made a few more shots (not an unreasonable expectation) she could easily have scored another 10, and if we'd been ready for that final spurt that would have expanded the final MOV by another 8-10. I comfort myself with thinking a couple of accidental circumstances made my poor reasoning look worse than it really was.
What does this mean going forward? I'm much more cautious about the NC St game and will probably pick UConn by +5. Here's my position by position assessment:
5. Hobby is a player rather like Moore and Gaston, big and strong though slow-footed. They have another big, Baldwin, who could pose a problem for Dorka.
4. Boyd is a quick 4 with a midrange game -- will Aaliyah be able to contain her without getting in foul trouble? This a job for Aubrey, who is more than enough for Boyd, though she may be needed on the perimeter.
3. So far Rivers has continued to disappoint, but perhaps she can turn it around against us. Will we have an answer for her? Aubrey again?
1 & 2. Johnson is a Harmon like guard, but I expect Nika and Azzi to contain her. But can they do that and also contain Brown-Turner?
These are the question marks for me. Last year, they could run with us and the game was a nail-biter. I don't think they can run with us this year quite so effectively, but we may not be able to account for all their scorers. Also, we may actually need Ayanna to play in a more controlled way, to help keep Hobby Baldwin Boyd off the boards for a longer stretch. Finally, we need Lou not get taken off the floor early -- her 15-20 may be essential even if Azzi has another dazzling night. Texas is not an efficient scoring team, and they got >70 on us. NC St is a good scoring team so we need more consistent defense, better boxing out, and some real scoring punch at all positions. And we need to run even more this game -- they're a little bigger than we are, and a little slower. This means we don't go toe-to-toe with them in the half court, we have to use the entire floor. This worked well against Texas. But if Johnson plays up to her potential, it may be harder to pull off against NC St.
