2018 Draft and Kelsey Plum

[shizam]

Would Kelsey Plum of been a 1 st rounder if she was in the 2018 draft?
Vivians was 8th. No way would I take Plum over Vivians. Gulich was 12th. I think Gulich will be good if she gets a chance.
Knowing what we know now would you take Plum over Nurse or Atkins or Canada? I would have taken her before Nurse, but not ATKINS or Canada.
Go to 2016. Plum or Jefferson?

 

[Geew1992]

Well...she was 1st cuz of her scoring...just like many other players drafted for their scoring.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Kelsey Plum and Kelsey Mitchell had similar stats and somewhat similar games. They might have been picked at about the same time.

 

[bballnut90]

Kelsey Plum and Kelsey Mitchell had similar stats and somewhat similar games. They might have been picked at about the same time.

I would've taken Mitchell over Plum at 2. Much quicker player and I always thought her game translated to pro ball better than Kelsey's. 5th is my guess. Plum was really really good her senior year in college and had some pretty spectacular games. If she had that season in 2018, I think she definitely gets picked by Seattle over Canada, a player she regularly outplayed in college and she'd stay in the same city she went to school. Based on what we see now is a different story, but Plum was really fantastic her last year....much better than Canada was at UCLA IMO. Keep in mind though, Canada is playing for Seattle where she's basically getting groomed by Bird to replace her in the next couple of years, and she has Loyd and Stewart as teammates which makes life a lot easier. Plum came in competing with another young star for the PG spot and joined a franchise that really didn't have star power outside of McBride. My guess is she performs a lot better playing in Seattle backing up Sue as a rookie than she did in San Antonio. Reverse is true if Canada played for Aces instead of Storm.

In hindsight for this draft, no one really expected Atkins to be as good as she has been. People thought she was drafted too high. I thought Vivians was underrated at 8, but this was also a loaded draft. Hard time rationalizing that any of the picks 3-7 "regret" taking their pick over Vivians, especially given their needs. Vivians has been fantastic as of late averaging 15ppg over her last 8 games. She's also playing for a team that needs scorers so it was a perfect fit for her. I think she could be one of the best players to come out of this class, but there are a lot of good ones.

Going back to 2016, no question you take Jefferson over Plum. Moriah was the best PG prospect to enter the pros since Diggins. Jefferson after 2016 would've been a top 2 pick in 2015, #1 in 2017, and top two in 2018. If she gets healthy, she has fantastic upside still.

 

[oldude]

The WNBA draft is flawed for several reasons. The NCAA season ends, and just a few weeks later, WNBA teams draft players. There is no lengthy scouting process, player interviews or individual player workouts like the NBA.

WNBA teams have neither the resources nor the time to fully evaluate the players they draft. It’s simply an “eyeball test” based on player stats and games they’ve watched on TV.

On the plus side, WNBA coaches & GM’s have at least had 4 years to watch players in college, and they’re not signing these players to multi-million dollar deals.

As for Kelsey Plum, she appears to be the “Johnny Manzel” of WBB. Great college player that lacks the physical skill to play effectively at the next level.

 

[eebmg]

...

As for Kelsey Plum, she appears to be the “Johnny Manzel” of WBB. Great college player that lacks the physical skill to play effectively at the next level.

Kelsey Plum is already starting to play "effectively" at this level. She is learning how to compensate for physical limitations with clever play and has finally started shooting the 3pt shot with high accuracy and confidence. Her defense is still an issue but she (and the coaches) will figure out how to use her to better close the gap. She will never be the leading scorer in the WNBA or on her own team most nights but is an effective option that teams have to take into account. In the debate between Kelsey Plum and Kelsey Mitchel, Mitchel may score more in spurts and her 1-1 game is more explosive but she is one of those " win a game for you or lose a game for you" players. For me, Plum is the more consistent player.

 

[oldude]

Kelsey Plum is already starting to play "effectively" at this level. She is learning how to compensate for physical limitations with clever play and has finally started shooting the 3pt shot with high accuracy and confidence. Her defense is still an issue but she (and the coaches) will figure out how to use her to better close the gap. She will never be the leading scorer in the WNBA or on her own team most nights but is an effective option that teams have to take into account. In the debate between Kelsey Plum and Kelsey Mitchel, Mitchel may score more in spurts and her 1-1 game is more explosive but she is one of those " win a game for you or lose a game for you" players. For me, Plum is the more consistent player.

I appreciate your analysis. I will acknowledge that Plum probably can be a reasonably effective player in the WNBA. But will she ever play at a level worthy of being a #1 pick?

 

[eebmg]

I appreciate your analysis. I will acknowledge that Plum probably can be a reasonably effective player in the WNBA. But will she ever play at a level worthy of being a #1 pick?

The real issue is whether she should have been taken #1 in the 2017 draft which was historically weak.

WNBA Draft 2017 - WNBA.com - Official Site of the WNBA

Based on how the 2017 round 1 draftee's are doing now, I would say she is doing as well this year as all of them and better than most so on talent alone, it is not unreasonable especially since Coates has underachieved. The dallas picks Gray and Davis had better rookie campaigns but I thinly they have plateaued and met their level while Sykes is a surprise that I think caught most by surprise but is also plateauing a bit.

I think the real issue is whether she was the right pick for the Aces with Moriah Jefferson and the gap of a post. Well, I think MJ and Plum can play together and they dodged the Coates bullet. If they are in the lottery this year, they will have a good chance at true dominant posts like Brown or McGowan.

 

[bbsamjj]

I understand that the expectations for Plum were very high coming out of college as the #1 pick, but I think everyone acknowledges that was one of the weakest WNBA drafts in recent history. But Plum has certainly proved she can play real minutes in the league.

Over two years, she's averaged 8ppg and 3.5apg. She has thus far been a poor overall FG shooter (though it's improved this year), but she's been an outstanding 3-pt shooter this year (47.5%) and has also gotten her TOs per game down in half. Over the past four games she's been on a hot streak, averaging 12.3ppg, 4apg (to just 1 to per game), while shooting 53% from the field and
64% from 3.

I think a more reasonable expectation for her, which someone else on the board has mentioned, is for her to become a Quigley type player (who took 5 years to really get her footing in the league). Once Jefferson gets healthy, she is the more pure PG, but there's enough minutes at the 1/2 for Jefferson, Plum and McBride to form a very good and young offensive backcourt.

 

[oldude]

The real issue is whether she should have been taken #1 in the 2017 draft which was historically weak.

WNBA Draft 2017 - WNBA.com - Official Site of the WNBA

Based on how the 2017 round 1 draftee's are doing now, I would say she is doing as well this year as all of them and better than most so on talent alone, it is not unreasonable especially since Coates has underachieved. The dallas picks Gray and Davis had better rookie campaigns but I thinly they have plateaued and met their level while Sykes is a surprise that I think caught most by surprise but is also plateauing a bit.

I think the real issue is whether she was the right pick for the Aces with Moriah Jefferson and the gap of a post. Well, I think MJ and Plum can play together and they dodged the Coates bullet. If they are in the lottery this year, they will have a good chance at true dominant posts like Brown or McGowan.

Agree the 2017 draft was weak overall. But you could make the case that Gray, Davis, Sykes & Nia Coffey were all potentially better picks than Plum based on their superior athleticism and ability to play defense.

Without the ability to “workout” potential draft picks like the NBA or NFL, teams are forced to make decisions on incomplete information. Not saying that other pro leagues always get it right, but if I’m looking at drafting an undersized guard, who was allowed to often freelance on defense, as the #1 pick, I sure would like to know if she had the physical skills to match up with the best players in the world.

In all honesty, if San Antonio determined that Plum was not worthy of the #1 pick in the draft, and there was no hidden gem in an otherwise weak draft class, their best move would have been to trade the pick. They likely could have gotten a solid player and another 1st round pick in a decidedly better 2018 draft class.

 

[eebmg]

Agree the 2017 draft was weak overall. But you could make the case that Gray, Davis, Sykes & Nia Coffey were all potentially better picks than Plum based on their superior athleticism and ability to play defense.

Without the ability to “workout” potential draft picks like the NBA or NFL, teams are forced to make decisions on incomplete information. Not saying that other pro leagues always get it right, but if I’m looking at drafting an undersized guard, who was allowed to often freelance on defense, as the #1 pick, I sure would like to know if she had the physical skills to match up with the best players in the world.

In all honesty, if San Antonio determined that Plum was not worthy of the #1 pick in the draft, and there was no hidden gem in an otherwise weak draft class, their best move would have been to trade the pick. They likely could have gotten a solid player and another 1st round pick in a decidedly better 2018 draft class.

I think it is very hard to assess defense in general out from college unless you are Alanna Beard and athleticism can be misleading overall but I agree that trading the pick would have been a good option to explore. If I recall the rumors, I think the pick was offered but the Aces asked for too much ?. Still, she has clearly escaped the deer in headlights phase based on not meeting peoples expectations and settled in. I think Plum is a leader and is mentally/physically tough and to me looks like she is going to be at least as good as Whalen who has never been accused of being athletic or a defensive stalwart.

 

[bballnut90]

The real issue is whether she should have been taken #1 in the 2017 draft which was historically weak.

WNBA Draft 2017 - WNBA.com - Official Site of the WNBA

Based on how the 2017 round 1 draftee's are doing now, I would say she is doing as well this year as all of them and better than most so on talent alone, it is not unreasonable especially since Coates has underachieved. The dallas picks Gray and Davis had better rookie campaigns but I thinly they have plateaued and met their level while Sykes is a surprise that I think caught most by surprise but is also plateauing a bit.

I think the real issue is whether she was the right pick for the Aces with Moriah Jefferson and the gap of a post. Well, I think MJ and Plum can play together and they dodged the Coates bullet. If they are in the lottery this year, they will have a good chance at true dominant posts like Brown or McGowan.

2017 draft was straight up awful, so anyone they took at 1 was going to be a bust if we’re keeping it real. The #3 pick from that draft isn’t even playing anymore in the W, and a top 10 pick was cut as a rookie.

Plum was the obvious #1 pick IMO, but she was a horrible fit for the Stars so they should’ve traded her for a solid player. We saw Phoenix do that in 2007 when it was a weak draft and they traded Harding and traded her for a veteran in Tangela Smith...we all saw who won that trade. 2021 could be a similar draft unless Walker or others make big strides. It’s very early, but none of the top 10 kids wowed as freshmen besides Carter, but the exodus of players from A&M after 1 year with Chennedy might be telling.

And lastly, getting Brown or McCowan isn’t the answer for Vegas. At SC, Wilson really excelled once she wasn’t playing with Coates, who took up space inside and doesn’t have range beyond 5 feet. You’ll have the same issue with those 2, especially McCowan. Wilson can defend at a high level with her length and athleticism, and offensively she is a very difficult matchup for opposing posts because she can hit the free throw line jumper or beat you with her quickness. If she has another big low post presence there, the spacing doesn’t work in her favor unless that post can step out and consistently score from 15-20 feet. A player like Stevens or Jonquel Jones could be very good compliment to A’ja, but not Brown or McCowan.

 

[bbsamjj]

2017 draft was straight up awful, so anyone they took at 1 was going to be a bust if we’re keeping it real. The #3 pick from that draft isn’t even playing anymore in the W, and a top 10 pick was cut as a rookie.

Plum was the obvious #1 pick IMO, but she was a horrible fit for the Stars so they should’ve traded her for a solid player. We saw Phoenix do that in 2007 when it was a weak draft and they traded Harding and traded her for a veteran in Tangela Smith...we all saw who won that trade. 2021 could be a similar draft unless Walker or others make big strides. It’s very early, but none of the top 10 kids wowed as freshmen besides Carter, but the exodus of players from A&M after 1 year with Chennedy might be telling.

And lastly, getting Brown or McCowan isn’t the answer for Vegas. At SC, Wilson really excelled once she wasn’t playing with Coates, who took up space inside and doesn’t have range beyond 5 feet. You’ll have the same issue with those 2, especially McCowan. Wilson can defend at a high level with her length and athleticism, and offensively she is a very difficult matchup for opposing posts because she can hit the free throw line jumper or beat you with her quickness. If she has another big low post presence there, the spacing doesn’t work in her favor unless that post can step out and consistently score from 15-20 feet. A player like Stevens or Jonquel Jones could be very good compliment to A’ja, but not Brown or McCowan.

While the Aces are very likely to miss the playoffs this year, they may only be the 3rd or 4th worst team in the league, meaning they may not even have a choice to draft Brown or McCowan! Just as of now, KLS does seem like a great fit for the team's needs.

for those who know more, do you think Wilson and Harrison would play well next to each other (assuming she returns)?

 

[UcMiami]

You can ask the same kind of questions about a number of high draft picks - KML and Tuck have both struggled to find their way in the W as examples. Like the HS classes, the college classes are a very mixed bag with some years loaded, others very weak, and others with very thin with one or two special players and the rest a bunch of meh. There are only so many Maya, Breanna, DT, Sue, Nneka, Griner, etc. type players and they are not present every year.

 

[DallasBUFan]

I think it is very hard to assess defense in general out from college unless you are Alanna Beard and athleticism can be misleading overall but I agree that trading the pick would have been a good option to explore. If I recall the rumors, I think the pick was offered but the Aces asked for too much ?. Still, she has clearly escaped the deer in headlights phase based on not meeting peoples expectations and settled in. I think Plum is a leader and is mentally/physically tough and to me looks like she is going to be at least as good as Whalen who has never been accused of being athletic or a defensive stalwart.

I think they could use one of them. When Aja got benched or in foul trouble they could help stop the bleeding. Especially to help against the bigs that are bigger than Aja which would help her maybe get a better defensive match up.

Brown knows how to work well with another big. Lauren Cox at 6'4 was very dominant. Kalani has gotten really good at shooting the 15 and 17 footers, also being an effective passer. They could compliment each other very well. McCowan is used to owning the paint though.

If season ended today LV would get 3rd pick. We shall see where they sit. KLS could be a really good option. I still think another really large post would help take pressure off of her.

 

[CocoHusky]

Very timely article and some related links about Kelsey's finding her way in the WNBA.
My own conclusion is that sometimes it is not the player it is the circumstances. Who knew for example that:
"Before the team was sold, the front office remained undecided about choosing Plum until draft night—former general manager Ruth Riley and former head coach Vickie Johnson differed on whether to pick Plum —and both the bitterness and ambivalence about playing her lingered into the season."

"What's remarkable in Plum's case is that such a chance wasn't a given. There's no real recent comparison in WNBA history for a top overall pick failing to get regular playing time, and no wonder: teams with the top overall pick are usually awful, with that pick serving as the brightest hope for the future."

Kelsey Plum is Finally Getting her Chance

 

[Bigboote]

If I recall the rumors, I think the pick was offered but the Aces asked for too much ?

That’s one thing that’s been missing in this discussion. The Aces didn’t want her, but she was too valuable not to draft. It was actually pretty public that they were shopping the pick around. A GM or two were quoted that the Stars were asking an unrealistic amount in exchange, but wouldn’t budge. How would anyone feel showing up to play for a team that’s all but said they don’t want her?

Of course, Plum didn’t do herself any favors when she arrived saying that she wouldn’t play off guard or combo. I agree with the poster who siad that the combination of MoJeff, KMac, and Plum (with Kelsey as a willing combo guard) has the potential to be a great backcourt.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Agree the 2017 draft was weak overall. But you could make the case that Gray, Davis, Sykes & Nia Coffey were all potentially better picks than Plum based on their superior athleticism and ability to play defense.

You could also make the argument that Plum's shooting and her ability to get her shot off while being the focal point of the opposition's defensive schemes in college was also truly elite. Shooting is at a premium in today's WNBA, including the ability to create one's shot.

Also, if you look at last year, San Antonio did not have the best structure in place for player development, using a rookie head coach and a rookie GM. Having Laimbeer assume the reins in Las Vegas has certainly helped. If you look at Plum's numbers this year, you will see that her overall shooting and three-point shooting have improved tremendously, as has her A/TO ratio (in roughly the same number of minutes).

Without the ability to “workout” potential draft picks like the NBA or NFL, teams are forced to make decisions on incomplete information. Not saying that other pro leagues always get it right, but if I’m looking at drafting an undersized guard, who was allowed to often freelance on defense, as the #1 pick, I sure would like to know if she had the physical skills to match up with the best players in the world.

Again, I have to respectfully disagree. The NBA takes players after one year of college (or being one year removed from high school or 19 years old). The WNBA has four years of evaluations for each player - including conference tournaments and NCAA tournaments. The bigger issues are talent evaluation and being able to understand the differences between the college game and the pro game.

If season ended today LV would get 3rd pick. We shall see where they sit. KLS could be a really good option. I still think another really large post would help take pressure off of her.

Actually, as of today, Las Vegas would be expected to have the second pick, as the draft lottery combines the records from the current and prior seasons. Indiana would have the first pick.

I think they could use one of them. When Aja got benched or in foul trouble they could help stop the bleeding. Especially to help against the bigs that are bigger than Aja which would help her maybe get a better defensive match up.

Brown knows how to work well with another big. Lauren Cox at 6'4 was very dominant. Kalani has gotten really good at shooting the 15 and 17 footers, also being an effective passer. They could compliment each other very well. McCowan is used to owning the paint though.

Here is the dilemma (or dilemmas) for Vegas.

-- A'ja has shown off her ability to score on the low block and to step out and shoot the mid-range jumper. But is she really a four? Ideally, she would be paired with someone who has more range on her shot, but also can defend in the post. You do not want to clog the lane, which would hurt Wilson's ability to overpower defenders, who can double down on her. Having someone like Napheesa Collier would actually make more sense than Brown in that respect, as Collier is more mobile in terms of her ability to create her own shot from mid-range and beyond and has been doing it longer. I also like the idea of Lauren Cox next to Wilson, but Cox is not in the 2019 draft. Azura Stevens would fit as well, provided she adds a little more strength.

Vegas also needs help at small forward. Tamera Young and Nia Coffey are good athletes, but do not have the consistency that Vegas needs right now. And while Vegas shoots a good percentage as a team from three, the number of attempts and makes is significantly lower than its opponents. Vegas, for the year, is shooting 62 - 173 from three; Vegas' opponents have shot 143 - 421 from distance.

And even if Jefferson returns, it is unlikely that McBride can defend the three such that you could play Jefferson, Plum, and McBride in the starting lineup, with Wilson and a PF up front.

If you are looking for fits next year, this is where Katie Lou Samuelson fits perfectly. Do I think she is the 2nd best player in the draft, in terms of WNBA potential (I have her in the 4-6 range, mostly because I believe she is closer to her ceiling than other prospects, in terms of what she has achieved and what she still can do)? No. But does she fit very well with Vegas? Absolutely!

Also, if Las Vegas is convinced that either Plum/Jefferson can run the point, perhaps it is time to consider trading one or the other for another pick in next year's draft - but that is another discussion.

 

[bballnut90]

I think it is very hard to assess defense in general out from college unless you are Alanna Beard and athleticism can be misleading overall but I agree that trading the pick would have been a good option to explore. If I recall the rumors, I think the pick was offered but the Aces asked for too much ?. Still, she has clearly escaped the deer in headlights phase based on not meeting peoples expectations and settled in. I think Plum is a leader and is mentally/physically tough and to me looks like she is going to be at least as good as Whalen who has never been accused of being athletic or a defensive stalwart.

As good as Whalen?? No way. Whalen is one of the best PGs to ever play.

 

[EricLA]

I appreciate your analysis. I will acknowledge that Plum probably can be a reasonably effective player in the WNBA. But will she ever play at a level worthy of being a #1 pick?

Probably neither will KML or Williams. Both are serviceable and given the right circumstances, could be effective for their teams, but so much depends on the other players in the draft. 2018 was awfully deep and strong. 2017 and 2016 not so much I don't think...

 

[eebmg]

As good as Whalen?? No way. Whalen is one of the best PGs to ever play.

I meant that only in the sense that there is nothing physical or mental preventing Plum from ultimately becoming as good as Whalen. Time will tell.

 

[bbsamjj]

Cam, agree with you that Vegas might not need Plum AND Jefferson if they think they can fill another hole with a trade. But given that both can also slide over to the two when needed, I'd think you can divide 80 minutes of playing time between Jefferson, Plum and McBride and still keep folks happy. Of course, a Plum/Jefferson back-court is VERY small, but that would be your option to give McBride a breather.

 

[Dillon77]

Also, if Las Vegas is convinced that either Plum/Jefferson can run the point, perhaps it is time to consider trading one or the other for another pick in next year's draft - but that is another discussion.[/QUOTE]

Actually, that's the point I was looking for in the latter part of this trail. MoJeff, Plum and back-up Lindsay Allen are all pretty small to have in a three-guard approach for the Aces (and as much as I love K-Mac, she's better suited to off-guard, not the three).

Wouldn't be surprised to see Bill Laimbeer giving extended looks at both MoJeff and Plum for the rest of the year and put on his trader hat to see what he can get in terms of picks and/or players and.or draft positioning (for a player he really wants). Whomever stays in Vegas starts and plays the majority of minutes with Allen spelling her for 10 minutes per game.

 

[Shmermerer]

2017 draft was straight up awful, so anyone they took at 1 was going to be a bust if we’re keeping it real. The #3 pick from that draft isn’t even playing anymore in the W, and a top 10 pick was cut as a rookie.

Plum was the obvious #1 pick IMO, but she was a horrible fit for the Stars so they should’ve traded her for a solid player. We saw Phoenix do that in 2007 when it was a weak draft and they traded Harding and traded her for a veteran in Tangela Smith...we all saw who won that trade. 2021 could be a similar draft unless Walker or others make big strides. It’s very early, but none of the top 10 kids wowed as freshmen besides Carter, but the exodus of players from A&M after 1 year with Chennedy might be telling.

And lastly, getting Brown or McCowan isn’t the answer for Vegas. At SC, Wilson really excelled once she wasn’t playing with Coates, who took up space inside and doesn’t have range beyond 5 feet. You’ll have the same issue with those 2, especially McCowan. Wilson can defend at a high level with her length and athleticism, and offensively she is a very difficult matchup for opposing posts because she can hit the free throw line jumper or beat you with her quickness. If she has another big low post presence there, the spacing doesn’t work in her favor unless that post can step out and consistently score from 15-20 feet. A player like Stevens or Jonquel Jones could be very good compliment to A’ja, but not Brown or McCowan.

I agree to an extent about spacing. Defensive 3 seconds in the W helps spacing for Wilson as well. The bottom line is the Aces need shooters and scorers. McCowan is not the answer. She has no post moves to go along with zero counter moves. Samuelson really is the best choice for the Aces if she’s still around.

 

[Carnac]

I think they could use one of them. When Aja got benched or in foul trouble they could help stop the bleeding. Especially to help against the bigs that are bigger than Aja which would help her maybe get a better defensive match up.

Brown knows how to work well with another big. Lauren Cox at 6'4 was very dominant. Kalani has gotten really good at shooting the 15 and 17 footers, also being an effective passer. They could compliment each other very well. McCowan is used to owning the paint though.

If season ended today LV would get 3rd pick. We shall see where they sit. KLS could be a really good option. I still think another really large post would help take pressure off of her.

That's an interesting dilemma. If you're the Aces, and all 3 are both still on the board, who do you take, Katie Lou, or McCowan/Brown?

If I'm Laimbeer, I have no issue trading either Jefferson or Plum, based on who I decide to keep, since I did not draft either one one them. If I can package one of them in a trade for a big guard that I like, I do it.