20 wins not enough?

[Danzz]

If we win the rest of our regular season games and lose in the AAC final, we're in the dance*.


* Assumes catastrophic roof cave-ins on opening day of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten and Big 12 tournaments.

Probably but this would be cutting it real close and it may not be enough.

 

[HomeKing93]

If history is a guide, the NCAA left out the 2012-13 Kentucky team (the defending champs from 2011-12) that finished the regular season and SEC tourney at 21-11 with a 57 RPI and SOS of 70. I'd feel better about an at-large bid if our final RPI is in the 40s.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Futzing with that RPI Wizard or whatever it is, if we win out in the regular season, and then beat Cincy and SMU in the tourney before losing to Tulsa, we'd have an RPI of 36 with a 21-12 record. SOS would be 41. I feel that's enough to make it in as a 9/10 seed.

 

[MDHusky]

The only way UConn is a lock for a bid is with the AAC tourney championship. Otherwise, winning 21 games will just move UConn into the first four out or next four out.

UConn would need lots of things to go their way. The other bubble teams would need to screw up and there would have to be no upsets in the A10, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, & West Coast conference championships.

Getting to 21 wins puts UConn in contention with these teams:
Pitt 19-10
Miami 18-10
NC St 17-11
Oklahoma St 17-10
Texas 17-11
St John's 19-9
Illinois 17-11
UCLA 17-12
Georgia 18-9
BYU 22-8

All of these teams have around 4-6 games left on their schedule to pick up more W's and move up in RPI rankings.

There is no other way but the AAC Championship.

 

[Gampeltiles]

If SMU wins the Tournament, I would not be floored if this is a one bid conference.

 

[nycscooby]

AAC will likely be a 4 bid conference, I think 3 is a lock. Don't see us winning out nothing makes me think the team can win 6 in a row including SMU twice.

 

[CAHUSKY]

If SMU wins the Tournament, I would not be floored if this is a one bid conference.

Stop it.

 

[whaler11]

Stop it.

If it were a 64 team tourney still it would be in play. Wouldn't happen but it would have been possible.

Not that Lunardi is the end all, but Cinci and Temple would be his last two in at 64 teams.

 

[whaler11]

Also interesting about Lunardi's bracket. The Non Power 5 + BE get a total of 5 at larges. The only one that isn't in the bottom 8 at larges in his bracket is WSU/UNI.

 

[MDHusky]

SMU is a lock. If Cincy, Temple, or Tulsa make it to the AAC Championship game but lose, it would get them an at-large. A loss in the Quarterfinals or Semi Final round would likely result in being left out of the NCAA tourney.

I predict 3 teams in for AAC: SMU, Tulsa, and UConn (auto).

The 4/5 game loser in the AAC will not get an at-large bid.

 

[ZackB05]

If we win out in the regular season and make it to the conference championship I think we are definitely in. I read somewhere this would put our RPI in the mid 30s. 8-2 in the final 10 regular season games and 21-22 wins should be more than enough for the defending champions to make it back into the tourney. Plus most knowledgable people know we have a new/young team who have gotten better as the season progressed. Add in the fact we had a couple buzzer beater losses as well. Now the mission is to win out and win a few games in the tourney. It's game time boys.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Also interesting about Lunardi's bracket. The Non Power 5 + BE get a total of 5 at larges. The only one that isn't in the bottom 8 at larges in his bracket is WSU/UNI.

The Big East has all but locked up 5 at large bids by itself. Who does lunardi leave out?

 

[tzznandrew]

The Big East has all but locked up 5 at large bids by itself. Who does lunardi leave out?

On his website, he has the Big East with 6:

Villanova
Georgetown
Butler
Providence
St. John's
Xavier

 

[whaler11]

The Big East has all but locked up 5 at large bids by itself. Who does lunardi leave out?

Non P5 and Big East.

A 10/MWC/MVC/AAC = 5 at large

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Non P5 and Big East.

A 10/MWC/MVC/AAC = 5 at large

Got it.

Lunardi's predictions 3 weeks out are probably the least accurate of any bracketologist.

 

[champs99and04]

I could see a scenario in which the AAC only gets one team in. Memphis beating Tulsa here would be a start to that.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

An RPI ranking of 40 is a pretty safe bid unless something is weird about the rest of a school's resume.

 

[Milo65]

22 wins...we need to find 6 more wins.

 

[mauconnfan]

22 wins...we need to find 6 more wins.

Yep and it has to start today at 2pm.