#2 Notre Dame @ #3 Louisville (poll & GAME THREAD)

[Fightin Choke]

Two questions.

Obviously, Massey can't get them all right, but I've been impressed with the results, and would stack him up against any human predictions. Can you tell me some of the big misses? I'm nor recalling any major blunders.

Second, I just glanced at Massey, and I see ND by 1 (or 1.5). I doubt it has changed much since noon, are we looking at different things?

Edit
Okay I'm able to answer the second question myself.

If you put both teams into the matchup option you get 76-71 Notre Dame.

I don't know how that squares with the prediction page which has Notre Dame over Louisville 73 – 72.

I think I've checked both out before and found them in sync so I'm not quite sure what's going on here.

On his predictions page, his model is predicting the actual game, which is at Louisville. ND is a 1-point favorite tomorrow by his model.

When you do a match-up yourself, you are removing the home court advantage that Louisville has unless you say that Louisville is hosting ND (or that ND is at UL). We can also set up a fictitious match in South Bend and ND is a 7 point favorite.

The one problem with all these methods is that Massey doesn't know that ND has recently lost Lili Thompson (although there have been a few games to take into account the injury to Mikayla Vaughn).

 

[easttexastrash]

On his predictions page, his model is predicting the actual game, which is at Louisville. ND is a 1-point favorite tomorrow by his model.

When you do a match-up yourself, you are removing the home court advantage that Louisville has unless you say that Louisville is hosting ND (or that ND is at UL). We can also set up a fictitious match in South Bend and ND is a 7 point favorite.

The one problem with all these methods is that Massey doesn't know that ND has recently lost Lili Thompson (although there have been a few games to take into account the injury to Mikayla Vaughn).

Human-derived predictions are much more fun.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

I'm nor recalling any major blunders.

Not blunders. Consistently picks winner. Just big spread differences on early season games, mostly UConn ones. The match up feature is all I use.

 

[msf22b]

ND.

Louisville almost never plays well against teams ranked higher than itself.

Like Baylor?

 

[Dillon77]

I can see Louisville taking this one if they shoot the eyes out of the basket, early and often.
But if they don't -- or if the Irish keep it reasonably close -- I can see the Irish taking this one in a squeaker. Why? While the Irish may only play 7 players (and heavily rely on their starters), Louisville relies on two players for most of their offensive output and direction: Asia Durr and Myisha Hines-Allen, who I feel like is playing in her 10th year against ND.

Durr has taken nearly 250 shots and Hines-Allen, at 206, is nearly 100 shots ahead of the next closest Cardinal. While the focus on the "hot player" helps when that player is on, we've seen it work against the Cardinal when the opposition clamps down on one of the options and the fast-running car starts stalling.

Same thing happened two years ago when ND clawed back from an 11 point deficit in the second half, led by now departed Maddie Cable and then-frosh Arike Ogunbowale. Importantly, the Irish went after the middle and Hines-Allen fouled out with three minutes left.

While Louisville still has the "star-centric" offense, they do have a lot of talent filling in team-playing roles, such as Sam Fuehring of NJ, who starts up front and does a lot of everything for them, much like the Irish's Kat Westbeld.

I expect the Irish to play zone early and often and maybe mix it up to keep Durr honest (Jackie Young on Durr?). And expect a lot of going down low to Shep and Kat Westbeld for inside looks and to attempt to get Hines-Allen and Fuehring in foul trouble.

Hopefully, Arike will keep her hot streak from Georgia Tech alive in Kentucky, which might allow some slack for Marina Mabrey to get some open looks. Stay tuned....

 

[MilfordHusky]

ND is mentally tougher and better coached--but they keep losing kids to injury, so the margin for error is small.

 

[Phil]

On his predictions page, his model is predicting the actual game, which is at Louisville. ND is a 1-point favorite tomorrow by his model.

When you do a match-up yourself, you are removing the home court advantage that Louisville has unless you say that Louisville is hosting ND (or that ND is at UL). We can also set up a fictitious match in South Bend and ND is a 7 point favorite.

The one problem with all these methods is that Massey doesn't know that ND has recently lost Lili Thompson (although there have been a few games to take into account the injury to Mikayla Vaughn).

I'm kicking myself because I knew that. I must be getting old.

Yes the 76 – 71 is a neutral court prediction if you specify that it's at Louisville it comes out 73 – 72.

And I agree, the computer model doesn't factor in the injury which is why I picked Louisville alone still a close call because I think that Notre Dame has the edge with intangibles

 

[Phil]

Like Baylor?

You did see "almost" right?

 

[msf22b]

You did see "almost" right?

Yeah, I did...
C'mon!

 

[Zorro]

L'ville because ND is shorthanded and no Lili.

 

[Hayven]

ND wins, hands down. Arike can match Durr, point for point. And Louisville has no other scoring threat other than Durr as Hines-Allen has dropped off. Mabrey and Shepherd will help with the scoring.

 

[jaundicedeye]

ND in a close one. Shepherd's rebounding and scoring will be critical.

 

[Carnac]

ND in a close one. Shepherd's rebounding and scoring will be critical.

Shepherd will have to step up and have an exceptional game for the Irish to win.

Additionally, It must be noted and taken into consideration that Louisville is playing very well coming in to this game. They are undefeated at 15-0. ND has only the one loss to UConn.

 

[eebmg]

Ah. The poll turned around.

 

[triaddukefan]

Ah. The poll turned around.

Yes indeed.... when i first saw the thread... the poll was like 29-16 louisville.

 

[Orangutan]

The depth issue really does worry me. I expect Louisville to play fast and try to wear out ND. They just have more capable bodies.

If we're being honest, Nelson and Patterson would be players 9 and 10 in the rotation, respectively, if Johnson, Vaughn, and Thompson were healthy. Now they've been moved up to 6 and 7.

I'm not sure Patterson is ready for such a stage. Nelson has been much better this year but this isn't the game that best suits her due to Louisville's athleticism. They don't play traditional low-post bangers for her to match up on.

That being said, just looking at the scores Louisville hasn't been all that dominant so far in conference play. I expect a close game. It may just come down to who has the player with the hot hand. Will it be Durr or Hines-Allen for Louisville? Or will it be Mabrey or Ogunbowale or Shepard for ND?

 

[JavaMan]

​

 

[huskeynut]

ND takes this one in a squeaker! ND, even with all the injuries, is physically and mentally a very tough team. McGraw is a better coach. And who ever thought I would vote for ND!

 

[easttexastrash]

Like Baylor?

Well, there aren't that many teams ranked ahead of Baylor. Baylor has more trouble against lower ranked teams in the tourney.

 

[easttexastrash]

Like Baylor?

How did Baylor end up in the middle of a thread about a game between Louisville and ND? You know Baylor has established itself as a good team when people start sniping at them like Tennessee. BU...where you can Be You.

 

[VaConnFan11]

Louisville is a 3 point favorite.

Notre Dame has been through a lot and sooner or later it catches up with you. I think Louisville wins the game 71-64.

 

[jaundicedeye]

BU...where you can Be You.

Really? What would Britney Griner say about that?

 

[shizam]

I think you are right. I’m a Cards fan but don’t have confidence in the rest of the team besides Durr including Hines-Allen. Carter and Jones are weak. Point guard is still a weakness with Carter and Evans (freshman). Louisville just isn’t that good. I don’t think ND is great either. McGraw should overplay Durr outside to take away her shot and force her to drive right all the time. She can’t go right and isn’t a great driver or disher. ND by 3 or more. Hope I am soooo wrong.
One thing in Cards favor, ND stinks on defense so hopefully they can’t stay with Durr.

 

[shizam]

ND takes this one in a squeaker! ND, even with all the injuries, is physically and mentally a very tough team. McGraw is a better coach. And who ever thought I would vote for ND!

I think you are right on this

 

[shizam]

I like Louisville - This is a must watch game. Massey has ND winning by 1 point. ND has 2 things going against it:
1. They're short handed, only two scholarship players left on the bench. This means extended minutes for their starters, because the Cardinals are going to give them all they want, and then some! This means they can't get tired, they can't get in foul trouble and they can't get hurt.
2. This game is in Louisville. The Cardinals are always tough at home. They will play to defend their house, and will not just roll over for the Irish.

It's always nice to read what other non UConn fans with a different point of view are thinking. Since UConn plays Louisville on Feb 12, We'll get a chance to scout them before hand, and see what kind of challenges the team will face. Here are some thoughts and comments from another thread concerning this game:

"Everything about this game screams a L'ville win but when you take a step back and take another look you will see that ND will hold their own. L'ville has had a few close games: Ohio State, Georgia Tech, and Duke. Though L'ville has Asia Durr she is only averaging 20.1 ppg and the team 80.7 ppg. ND is averaging 85 ppg and if they can slow down Durr I see ND getting a tough win on the road. ND fans my heart continues to go out to all your players you have lost to ACL injuries".

"If ND comes out like they did against GT I like our chances. If the game starts like it did against Miami I'm not so sure. I think even with all the injuries ND is still the more well rounded team. Have to figure out a way to slow Durr down without getting into foul trouble, there's no stopping her but slowing her down is possible.
Both ND and L'ville have had some games that ended up way closer than they should have been - so we'll see. Im going with 78-71 Irish".

"Out coach, NO, ND leads the all time series 14 to 4 against Louisville, winning the last 11 in a row. ND has won the ACC regular season and the ACC tournament 4 times in a row, since their debut in the ACC. That doesn't guarantee a win this Thursday nor does it guarantee they will win the regular season conference or season ending tournament this year. Since their joining the conference they have only lost two games.

Yeah, they may lose this game (4 players out with ACL injury, two players playing with ankle injury and one with a broken nose),there a little short handed, yet they are 15 & 1, but with her track record against Louisville and the rest of the ACC, I don't see the logic in your statement where she will be "out coach again". If anything, she is out coaching the ACC".

Walz 1-12 lifetime verse McGraw