#2 Notre Dame @ #3 Louisville (poll & GAME THREAD) | The Boneyard

#2 Notre Dame @ #3 Louisville (poll & GAME THREAD)

#2 Notre Dame @ #3 Louisville (pick the winner poll)

  • Notre Dame wins

    Votes: 85 56.7%

  • Louisville wins

    Votes: 65 43.3%
  • Total voters
    150
  • Poll closed .
JavaMan

JavaMan

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#2 Notre Dame and #3 Louisville, both 4-0 in the ACC, will play tomorrow evening (Thursday) in Louisville at 7 p.m. on ESPN for all the world to see. The two teams have but one loss collectively, which came at the hands of some school in Connecticut.

I’m predicting that whoever wins this game will meet UConn in the Final Four or the Championship game in April. (I know, it’s possible that we could actually see both, but that ain’t gonna happen.)

So, who YOU pickin?
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ND. There is more balance there. Massey has them winning by 5 with a win % in the 60s, which is the kind of oddity that statistics produces. massey has been way off on lots of games. Needs more data.
 
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I voted Notre Dame because, honestly, I've been struggling to figure out whether Louisville really is as good as their current ranking. I think we'll for sure find out on Thursday.

I also think the Huskies will most likely have to go through the winner of Thursday night's game and Mississippi State to win it all this year.
 
I like Louisville - This is a must watch game. Massey has ND winning by 1 point. ND has 2 things going against it:
1. They're short handed, only two scholarship players left on the bench. This means extended minutes for their starters, because the Cardinals are going to give them all they want, and then some! This means they can't get tired, they can't get in foul trouble and they can't get hurt.
2. This game is in Louisville. The Cardinals are always tough at home. They will play to defend their house, and will not just roll over for the Irish.

It's always nice to read what other non UConn fans with a different point of view are thinking. Since UConn plays Louisville on Feb 12, We'll get a chance to scout them before hand, and see what kind of challenges the team will face. Here are some thoughts and comments from another thread concerning this game:

"Everything about this game screams a L'ville win but when you take a step back and take another look you will see that ND will hold their own. L'ville has had a few close games: Ohio State, Georgia Tech, and Duke. Though L'ville has Asia Durr she is only averaging 20.1 ppg and the team 80.7 ppg. ND is averaging 85 ppg and if they can slow down Durr I see ND getting a tough win on the road. ND fans my heart continues to go out to all your players you have lost to ACL injuries".

"If ND comes out like they did against GT I like our chances. If the game starts like it did against Miami I'm not so sure. I think even with all the injuries ND is still the more well rounded team. Have to figure out a way to slow Durr down without getting into foul trouble, there's no stopping her but slowing her down is possible.
Both ND and L'ville have had some games that ended up way closer than they should have been - so we'll see. Im going with 78-71 Irish".

"Out coach, NO, ND leads the all time series 14 to 4 against Louisville, winning the last 11 in a row. ND has won the ACC regular season and the ACC tournament 4 times in a row, since their debut in the ACC. That doesn't guarantee a win this Thursday nor does it guarantee they will win the regular season conference or season ending tournament this year. Since their joining the conference they have only lost two games.

Yeah, they may lose this game (4 players out with ACL injury, two players playing with ankle injury and one with a broken nose),there a little short handed, yet they are 15 & 1, but with her track record against Louisville and the rest of the ACC, I don't see the logic in your statement where she will be "out coach again". If anything, she is out coaching the ACC".
 
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Notre Dame. I think Muffet can game plan for Durr and the other Louisville players haven't proven they can consistently step up against high level competition. Louisville's track record in big conference matchups is also not great.

It will be very interesting to see how the short bench affects ND's strategy and overall play.
 
I'm picking the Cardinals to fly over the Irish!!
 
Louisville looks really good this year from the games I have seen. Direr is in great shape unlike the Ohio state phenom.
 
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Interesting Massey now has this as a 1 point ND win, with percentages 52% ND to 48% for Louisville. Should be a battle...
 
Notre Dame wins....McGraw is a far better coach than Walz and she still has a really good core 4 of Mabrey, Arike, Shepard and Young. Muffett hasn't lost to Walz since 2009 when he had McCoughtry. Louisville has a perfect record and Durr is extremely dangerous, but I think ND takes this one.
 
If ND wasn't as depleted I would pick them in a heart beat. However, Louisville is at home and they are good especially at home. Truly think they are pretty even and it will be a dog fight. I hope so and I hope that ND can make it through rest of the season injury free.
 
While ND may have to suit up MM if anyone else gets hurt, Louisville’s offense will bog down as it always seems to against a team like ND that plays solid defense. ND wins this one.
 
Louisville. Walz is smart enough to know than ND has only 7 players and 3 guards total. He will run plays all day to get ND in foul trouble. Unfortunately, ND will stay in a zone all day to prevent that. Does Louisville have enough good shooters to bust the zone? Enough to beat ND by 5 points.
 
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I'm really torn. I'd like ND to win because they are really hurting and Muffet is a terrific coach. But I want Louisville to win so that when they play UConn it's a battle of the unbeaten. I think Muffet does her magic and ND wins.
 
RockyMTblue2 said:
ND. There is more balance there. Massey has them winning by 5 with a win % in the 60s, which is the kind of oddity that statistics produces. massey has been way off on lots of games. Needs more data.
Expand ...

Two questions.

Obviously, Massey can't get them all right, but I've been impressed with the results, and would stack him up against any human predictions. Can you tell me some of the big misses? I'm nor recalling any major blunders.

Second, I just glanced at Massey, and I see ND by 1 (or 1.5). I doubt it has changed much since noon, are we looking at different things?

Edit
Okay I'm able to answer the second question myself.

If you put both teams into the matchup option you get 76-71 Notre Dame.

I don't know how that squares with the prediction page which has Notre Dame over Louisville 73 – 72.

I think I've checked both out before and found them in sync so I'm not quite sure what's going on here.
 
Apparently "the wisdom of the crowd" believes this is going to be a pretty good game. :cool:

upload_2018-1-10_17-28-26.png
 
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Phil said:
Two questions.

Obviously, Massey can't get them all right, but I've been impressed with the results, and would stack him up against any human predictions. Can you tell me some of the big misses? I'm nor recalling any major blunders.

Second, I just glanced at Massey, and I see ND by 1 (or 1.5). I doubt it has changed much since noon, are we looking at different things?

Edit
Okay I'm able to answer the second question myself.

If you put both teams into the matchup option you get 76-71 Notre Dame.

I don't know how that squares with the prediction page which has Notre Dame over Louisville 73 – 72.

I think I've checked both out before and found them in sync so I'm not quite sure what's going on here.
Expand ...
On his predictions page, his model is predicting the actual game, which is at Louisville. ND is a 1-point favorite tomorrow by his model.

When you do a match-up yourself, you are removing the home court advantage that Louisville has unless you say that Louisville is hosting ND (or that ND is at UL). We can also set up a fictitious match in South Bend and ND is a 7 point favorite.

The one problem with all these methods is that Massey doesn't know that ND has recently lost Lili Thompson (although there have been a few games to take into account the injury to Mikayla Vaughn).
 
Fightin Choke said:
On his predictions page, his model is predicting the actual game, which is at Louisville. ND is a 1-point favorite tomorrow by his model.

When you do a match-up yourself, you are removing the home court advantage that Louisville has unless you say that Louisville is hosting ND (or that ND is at UL). We can also set up a fictitious match in South Bend and ND is a 7 point favorite.

The one problem with all these methods is that Massey doesn't know that ND has recently lost Lili Thompson (although there have been a few games to take into account the injury to Mikayla Vaughn).
Expand ...

Human-derived predictions are much more fun.
 
Phil said:
I'm nor recalling any major blunders.
Expand ...

Not blunders. Consistently picks winner. Just big spread differences on early season games, mostly UConn ones. The match up feature is all I use.
 
I can see Louisville taking this one if they shoot the eyes out of the basket, early and often.
But if they don't -- or if the Irish keep it reasonably close -- I can see the Irish taking this one in a squeaker. Why? While the Irish may only play 7 players (and heavily rely on their starters), Louisville relies on two players for most of their offensive output and direction: Asia Durr and Myisha Hines-Allen, who I feel like is playing in her 10th year against ND.

Durr has taken nearly 250 shots and Hines-Allen, at 206, is nearly 100 shots ahead of the next closest Cardinal. While the focus on the "hot player" helps when that player is on, we've seen it work against the Cardinal when the opposition clamps down on one of the options and the fast-running car starts stalling.

Same thing happened two years ago when ND clawed back from an 11 point deficit in the second half, led by now departed Maddie Cable and then-frosh Arike Ogunbowale. Importantly, the Irish went after the middle and Hines-Allen fouled out with three minutes left.

While Louisville still has the "star-centric" offense, they do have a lot of talent filling in team-playing roles, such as Sam Fuehring of NJ, who starts up front and does a lot of everything for them, much like the Irish's Kat Westbeld.

I expect the Irish to play zone early and often and maybe mix it up to keep Durr honest (Jackie Young on Durr?). And expect a lot of going down low to Shep and Kat Westbeld for inside looks and to attempt to get Hines-Allen and Fuehring in foul trouble.

Hopefully, Arike will keep her hot streak from Georgia Tech alive in Kentucky, which might allow some slack for Marina Mabrey to get some open looks. Stay tuned....
 
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