2.1 Bracketology | Page 2 | The Boneyard

2.1 Bracketology

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While I think UConn should get an invite if they play to expectations from here on out, I am wary of the American consistently being screwed by the committee. That's my only fear here. Each of the past two seasons, a deserving team in our conference has been left at home.
 
I really don't care where they seed us . If we get the offense up where are defense is even if we're a 12 .It will be our opponents coach who will be having sleepless nights.He will be complaining to anyone who listens.
If not than our seed will be a moot point.
Enough If's lets just keep getting better.
 
Some of you are way too optimistic. We are hanging on a thread right now. We still have to play SMUx2, Cinci, Memphis, Temple. We can beat any of those teams on a good night, but let's be realistic, it's likely going to come down to the AAC tourney again.
 
RayIsTheGOAT said:
Some of you are way too optimistic. We are hanging on a thread right now. We still have to play SMUx2, Cinci, Memphis, Temple. We can beat any of those teams on a good night, but let's be realistic, it's likely going to come down to the AAC tourney again.
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You may say some are way too optimistic but I say there is way more pessimism on this board than is truly warranted.

Avoid the terrible loss and play the regular season out and I don't see how it would come down to win the AAC tourney or stay home again. We would have to lose every game that you mentioned for that to happen - have a little faith

FWIW I'm an eternal pessimist but majority of these bracket projections have us in the field with some buffer
 
Once UConn is in the dance it's let's take on all comers
I don't give a rats who UConn plays because if they play good D and not make WTF mistakes, they can play with most anyone.
Why waste time, energy and stress on suppositions?
We have seen in 2011 and 2014 that it makes no difference - bring UConn your best shot - I don't care if this team isn't like 2014 because most on this board said the same thing about 2014 vs 2011
I just want to see them get the invite
 
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With the 2011 and 2014 teams I was always very concerned as the seasons progressed that UConn had way too many wasted possessions on offense. Just like I am with this team. In fact, I watched St Johns destroy Kemba and company at MSG late in the season and thought the season was pretty much over. But Kemba had other plans and so did Napier. I'm not sure if this team has the killer who is ready to put the team on his back late and make a run. However, there is a lot of basketball left to be played and if we can get in, you never know what can happen. As we know!
 
I think the plan this year is to get an even lower seed than 2011 and 14, so that we can break the record for the lowest seed to win a National Championship. Don't forget, you heard it right here first. Hum...I foretold the 11 straight wins in 2011 before the BET began and I think I said a why not in 2014. Okay, I really don't believe it this time, but who knows. It worked in 2011 & 14 so why not again in 2016? The field is pretty weak this year. A lot of flawed teams. And now that we have Brimah back, maybe things will come together down the stretch and we squeak into the Tourney on a roll. Our Defense has come along and is among the best in the country and that was built without Brimah. Now if we can only fix our dreadful half-court offense. A little consistency from Gibbs. Hamilton getting his shooting touch back would really help. Adams continuing to improve and become a more consistent offensive threat. Brimah making our D even tougher, plus some added inside scoring would really help. Maybe I can talk both myself and the rest into thinking we can make the tourney and apply some Husky punishment on the field yet again.
 
HuskyHawk said:
While I think UConn should get an invite if they play to expectations from here on out, I am wary of the American consistently being screwed by the committee. That's my only fear here. Each of the past two seasons, a deserving team in our conference has been left at home.
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While that was the case with Louisville in 2014, I remember SMU having a very soft OOC schedule, which hurt their seeding last year. I know that they were much better than a six seed, but the NCAA will punish you for not playing a tough OOC schedule (and reward those who play a tough OOC).
 
1999.2004.2011 said:
While that was the case with Louisville in 2014, I remember SMU having a very soft OOC schedule, which hurt their seeding last year. I know that they were much better than a six seed, but the NCAA will punish you for not playing a tough OOC schedule (and reward those who play a tough OOC).
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Louisville wasn't screwed in 2014, they barely played anyone in non-conference and of the teams they did, UNC/MSU/UK, they lost all 3 convincingly. SMU actually put together a decent non-conference schedule last year, they just lost most of the marquee games while Kennedy was out the first semester.
 
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August_West said:
Id give my left nut for that matchup. Nova always looks great in-season but wilt in the face of Huskies and just tourney pressure in general.
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Agreed. This is probably the best matchup for us out of all of the one seeds. Fingers crossed for a bracket similar to this come March.
 
aceboon said:
Louisville wasn't screwed in 2014, they barely played anyone in non-conference and of the teams they did, UNC/MSU/UK, they lost all 3 convincingly. SMU actually put together a decent non-conference schedule last year, they just lost most of the marquee games while Kennedy was out the first semester.
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Every advanced metric had Louisville as a top-3 team that year. They got screwed.
 
Nice to see that both Lunardi and Palm have us in the top half of their brackets today.

On a more scary note, check out last year's final bracket matrix. http://bracketmatrix.com/matrix_2015.html

122 of the 136 brackets had Temple in the field and 14 had UCLA in. Temple's resume wasn't as solid as people like to think - nothing impressive OOC besides Kansas and 1-6 against SMU, Tulsa and Cinci - but it's pretty scary that UCLA got in. They were 8-5 OOC with no good wins and outside of a couple decent home wins, basically just accumulated wins against bad PAC-12 teams.
 
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We are 4-6 vs the top 100 RPI. Pu-pu it all you like it still reflects who you played and how you played them. We are also 1-2 vs the top 50.

Our profile us based on 4 decent wins, 2 OOC, 1 on the road, 1 neutral floor and having no bad losses. The second we lose to anyone not named SMU, Temple or Cincinnati that goes out the window along with any hope for an at large bid as others take down top level teams.

We also need to win most of the remaining games, because 4 Top 100 wins is not a resume that demands to be in the dance.

We catch a break because we haven't lost to a truly horrible team and because the bubble is pretty soft, but that only put more on to the committee where we have no friends.

There will be an extra bubble spot because of Louisville and that could be big.
 
HuskyBballFan said:
Nice to see that both Lunardi and Palm have us in the top half of their brackets today.

On a more scary note, check out last year's final bracket matrix. http://bracketmatrix.com/matrix_2015.html

122 of the 136 brackets had Temple in the field and 14 had UCLA in. Temple's resume wasn't as solid as people like to think - nothing impressive OOC besides Kansas and 1-6 against SMU, Tulsa and Cinci - but it's pretty scary that UCLA got in. They were 8-5 OOC with no good wins and outside of a couple decent home wins, basically just accumulated wins against bad PAC-12 teams.
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Temple was #54, #63, #62, and #67 by KenPom, BPI, Sagarin, and SRS respectively. The committee isn't as beholden to RPI as they used to be, and folks who think that RPI is going to determine tournament seeding are going to continue to be mistaken.
 
As awesome as it would be is it at all possible to have an 8 seed playing 2 hours from home the first weekend? The possibility of UCONN-Nova in NYC just brings so much potential drama though.
 
SubbaBub said:
We are 4-6 vs the top 100 RPI. Pu-pu it all you like it still reflects who you played and how you played them. We are also 1-2 vs the top 50.

Our profile us based on 4 decent wins, 2 OOC, 1 on the road, 1 neutral floor and having no bad losses. The second we lose to anyone not named SMU, Temple or Cincinnati that goes out the window along with any hope for an at large bid as others take down top level teams.

We also need to win most of the remaining games, because 4 Top 100 wins is not a resume that demands to be in the dance.

We catch a break because we haven't lost to a truly horrible team and because the bubble is pretty soft, but that only put more on to the committee where we have no friends.

There will be an extra bubble spot because of Louisville and that could be big.
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We're not safely in, but it's nowhere near as bad as you think it is.

The bubble isn't "pretty soft" -- it's squishier than 2-ply Charmin.
 
mdkhusky said:
we are not on the bubble
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We aren't in the sense that if the season ended today, we'd be in. We do not have a large margin for error going forward, however . . .
 
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I think UConn would have to lose 3 games to feel pretty bubbly on selection Sunday, and 4 games to feel really crappy about things. Losing their tourney opener or doing anything other than dropping the final against Cincinnati would hurt pretty badly, too. Dropping South Florida, UCF, or Houston would also make things significantly worse.

They need to go 3-2 in the five games against Cincinnati, Tulsa, SMU, and Temple plus win out the 3 baddies to feel "safe" and get a solid 6-8 seed. If they can go 7-1 over the final 8 games and win the tourney I think they can stretch up to a 4 seed at best.
 
if we end up with 10 losses after the AAC tourney we'll get in barring a loss to someone like usf our seed just won't be great
 
mdkhusky said:
if we end up with 10 losses after the AAC tourney we'll get in barring a loss to someone like usf our seed just won't be great
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I can't really agree with that. If we end the regular season with 9 losses, they'd better have been to Temple, Cincinnati, or SMU. And even if they are, and we drop our first AAC tourney game, there's a very real chance we'd be in the NIT. I still think we'd be ok, but I definitely would be watching on Selection Sunday with some pretty serious doubts.
 
HuskyBballFan said:
Nice to see that both Lunardi and Palm have us in the top half of their brackets today.

On a more scary note, check out last year's final bracket matrix. http://bracketmatrix.com/matrix_2015.html

122 of the 136 brackets had Temple in the field and 14 had UCLA in. Temple's resume wasn't as solid as people like to think - nothing impressive OOC besides Kansas and 1-6 against SMU, Tulsa and Cinci - but it's pretty scary that UCLA got in. They were 8-5 OOC with no good wins and outside of a couple decent home wins, basically just accumulated wins against bad PAC-12 teams.
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That was a perfect example of committee bias. The PAC was the conference with a weighted representation last year.
 
fleudslipcon said:
That was a perfect example of committee bias. The PAC was the conference with a weighted representation last year.
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Yeah, but then they beat SMU on that awful goaltend call and made the S16, so the committee can pretend they made a good call.
 
HuskyBballFan said:
Nice to see that both Lunardi and Palm have us in the top half of their brackets today.

On a more scary note, check out last year's final bracket matrix. http://bracketmatrix.com/matrix_2015.html

122 of the 136 brackets had Temple in the field and 14 had UCLA in. Temple's resume wasn't as solid as people like to think - nothing impressive OOC besides Kansas and 1-6 against SMU, Tulsa and Cinci - but it's pretty scary that UCLA got in. They were 8-5 OOC with no good wins and outside of a couple decent home wins, basically just accumulated wins against bad PAC-12 teams.
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Great analysis. I love this matrix. It's like the truth teller to some crazy seatings
 
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