2.1 Bracketology

[BoatShow]

As awesome as it would be is it at all possible to have an 8 seed playing 2 hours from home the first weekend? The possibility of UCONN-Nova in NYC just brings so much potential drama though.

 

[Excalibur]

We are 4-6 vs the top 100 RPI. Pu-pu it all you like it still reflects who you played and how you played them. We are also 1-2 vs the top 50.

Our profile us based on 4 decent wins, 2 OOC, 1 on the road, 1 neutral floor and having no bad losses. The second we lose to anyone not named SMU, Temple or Cincinnati that goes out the window along with any hope for an at large bid as others take down top level teams.

We also need to win most of the remaining games, because 4 Top 100 wins is not a resume that demands to be in the dance.

We catch a break because we haven't lost to a truly horrible team and because the bubble is pretty soft, but that only put more on to the committee where we have no friends.

There will be an extra bubble spot because of Louisville and that could be big.

We're not safely in, but it's nowhere near as bad as you think it is.

The bubble isn't "pretty soft" -- it's squishier than 2-ply Charmin.

 

[mdkhusky]

we are not on the bubble

 

[Excalibur]

we are not on the bubble

We aren't in the sense that if the season ended today, we'd be in. We do not have a large margin for error going forward, however . . .

 

[Balker]

I think UConn would have to lose 3 games to feel pretty bubbly on selection Sunday, and 4 games to feel really crappy about things. Losing their tourney opener or doing anything other than dropping the final against Cincinnati would hurt pretty badly, too. Dropping South Florida, UCF, or Houston would also make things significantly worse.

They need to go 3-2 in the five games against Cincinnati, Tulsa, SMU, and Temple plus win out the 3 baddies to feel "safe" and get a solid 6-8 seed. If they can go 7-1 over the final 8 games and win the tourney I think they can stretch up to a 4 seed at best.

 

[mdkhusky]

if we end up with 10 losses after the AAC tourney we'll get in barring a loss to someone like usf our seed just won't be great

 

[Balker]

if we end up with 10 losses after the AAC tourney we'll get in barring a loss to someone like usf our seed just won't be great

I can't really agree with that. If we end the regular season with 9 losses, they'd better have been to Temple, Cincinnati, or SMU. And even if they are, and we drop our first AAC tourney game, there's a very real chance we'd be in the NIT. I still think we'd be ok, but I definitely would be watching on Selection Sunday with some pretty serious doubts.

 

[ctchamps]

Nice to see that both Lunardi and Palm have us in the top half of their brackets today.

On a more scary note, check out last year's final bracket matrix. http://bracketmatrix.com/matrix_2015.html

122 of the 136 brackets had Temple in the field and 14 had UCLA in. Temple's resume wasn't as solid as people like to think - nothing impressive OOC besides Kansas and 1-6 against SMU, Tulsa and Cinci - but it's pretty scary that UCLA got in. They were 8-5 OOC with no good wins and outside of a couple decent home wins, basically just accumulated wins against bad PAC-12 teams.

That was a perfect example of committee bias. The PAC was the conference with a weighted representation last year.

 

[tzznandrew]

That was a perfect example of committee bias. The PAC was the conference with a weighted representation last year.

Yeah, but then they beat SMU on that awful goaltend call and made the S16, so the committee can pretend they made a good call.

 

[scdono]

Nice to see that both Lunardi and Palm have us in the top half of their brackets today.

On a more scary note, check out last year's final bracket matrix. http://bracketmatrix.com/matrix_2015.html

122 of the 136 brackets had Temple in the field and 14 had UCLA in. Temple's resume wasn't as solid as people like to think - nothing impressive OOC besides Kansas and 1-6 against SMU, Tulsa and Cinci - but it's pretty scary that UCLA got in. They were 8-5 OOC with no good wins and outside of a couple decent home wins, basically just accumulated wins against bad PAC-12 teams.

Great analysis. I love this matrix. It's like the truth teller to some crazy seatings

 

[scdono]

We need to win 3 terrible games beat Tulsa Cincinnati or SMU and beat temple. Then at least win in the tournament and we'll be at least 8 seats. Make finals and 6 to 7. Win championship and possible 5 seed. Lose only two games beat SMU at home and win championship possible 4 seed, assuming 2 losses are against Cincinnati and SMU.

 

[CTBasketball]

We need to win 3 terrible games beat Tulsa Cincinnati or SMU and beat temple. Then at least win in the tournament and we'll be at least 8 seats. Make finals and 6 to 7. Win championship and possible 5 seed. Lose only two games beat SMU at home and win championship possible 4 seed, assuming 2 losses are against Cincinnati and SMU.

We'll need to win out to get a 5 seed. That's our ceiling.

 

[JMick]

We'll need to win out to get a 5 seed. That's our ceiling.

If we win out there is a small chance at a 4 seed. CBB has been crazy enough this year where if we win 11 in a row teams ahead of us are bound to lose

 

[BoatShow]

4 seed means we're 13th -16th best team in the country...

 

[JMick]

4 seed means we're 13th -16th best team in the country...

16 wouldn't be that crazy if we were to win out. SMU and Louisville are gone.

edit: we'd be 28-6 with a decent resume. with UL and SMU out 26-8 is good for top 20 and would be borderline for that 16 spot.

 

[tzznandrew]

16 wouldn't be that crazy if we were to win out. SMU and Louisville are gone.

edit: we'd be 28-6 with a decent resume. with UL and SMU out 26-8 is good for top 20 and would be borderline for that 16 spot.

In a world where they win out, playing Tulane/Tulsa/Cincy in the AAC (a random guesswork), they'd go into the tournament at 28-6 with an RPI of ~15 and a SOS of ~57.

That's right in the 4-5 range.

But I don't think this is the likeliest scenario.

 

[JMick]

In a world where they win out, playing Tulane/Tulsa/Cincy in the AAC (a random guesswork), they'd go into the tournament at 28-6 with an RPI of ~15 and a SOS of ~57.

That's right in the 4-5 range.

But I don't think this is the likeliest scenario.

Definitely not a likely scenario. If we keep playing like we have lately the sky is the limit, but as long as we show up I'm confident we'll earn a 7-8 seed. Two weeks ago I would've been surprised we're even having this discussion.

 

[auror]

We are 4-6 vs the top 100 RPI. Pu-pu it all you like it still reflects who you played and how you played them. We are also 1-2 vs the top 50.

I will because it doesn't. The rest of your point is spot on, but the RPI is utter and grouping wins by it is bad, especially without specifying home or road.

 

[scdono]

There's no way 5 is our ceiling. If we go strictly by RPI sure but ESPN BPI has us as a 5 seed right now. If we win the tournament beat Cincinnati twice, SMU once temple Tulsa, our RPI will definitely be below 20. I'd bet on a 4 seed. Ceiling is definitely not 5 seed. Also you have to eliminate SMU and Louisville from consideration. So from a pure RPI 18 could get you 4 seed.

 

[Jerry1714]

There's no way 5 is our ceiling. If we go strictly by RPI sure but ESPN BPI has us as a 5 seed right now. If we win the tournament beat Cincinnati twice, SMU once temple Tulsa, our RPI will definitely be below 20. I'd bet on a 4 seed. Ceiling is definitely not 5 seed. Also you have to eliminate SMU and Louisville from consideration. So from a pure RPI 18 could get you 4 seed.

If we won out and played for instance Memphis, Cincy, and Temple in the AAC tournament and won it we would have an RPI of 13, so a 4 seed is definitely possible

 

[auror]

If we won out and played for instance Memphis, Cincy, and Temple in the AAC tournament and won it we would have an RPI of 13, so a 4 seed is definitely possible

I don't think there's much chance of Cincy finishing 5th in conference (counting SMU, so 4th seed in tournament). They have a decently favorable schedule remaining.

If we won out and got #1 seed, more likely tourny scenario is East Carolina, Tulsa, and Temple (or Cincy maybe). Wizard still puts us at 15th in RPI in that scenario. Losing at SMU makes it 21.

 

[JMick]

4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th - whatever. Let's just get in the tournament and see how the match-ups fall. Anything less than a 7th seed would be a gift after our early season struggles.

 

[tzznandrew]

If we won out and played for instance Memphis, Cincy, and Temple in the AAC tournament and won it we would have an RPI of 13, so a 4 seed is definitely possible

Memphis would have to fall to the 8 seed (since we'd be the 1 if we won out). Right now, we'd get ECU, USF, or Tulane in that first game (2 wins or fewer).

The 4-5 matchup will likely be Tulsa/Houston/Memphis in round 2.

Temple or Cincy in the title game.