#10 Maryland Scouting Report

[Milo65]

Get every rebound! Get every rebound!

 

[Jbirdp5]

The thing that is reassuring from their style is they don’t crash the offensive glass at all. This was our biggest issue vs crieghton and they are essentially waving the white flag on it. That’s one less thing we have to worry about. If creighton had that strategy we win the game.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Great work, @auror.

Here's some notable stats from KenPom and how UConn matches up.

OFFENSE:

Tempo: 317th fastest

• UConn is 305th fastest, so expect a rock fight.

Offensive rebounding: 327th

• UConn is 28th in defensive fg% so that's a good recipe. Make them take crappy shots and we clean the glass.

45th highest ratio in 3PA, 34.9 3p%.

• UConn is 60th in 3P D, so that balances out nicely.

DEFENSE:

Turnover causing %: 289th

• Shouldn't see a lot of press, etc.

2P FG%: 54th best
3P%: 205th best, however opponents attempt 305th highest ratio of 3PA:

• I'm combining these stats to one idea. Noting their interior defense I'm surprised more teams don't fire away from deep against Maryland, maybe it's an ACC thing. I wouldn't settle for 3s, but some good perimeter looks could be had for Polley, Cole, etc.

 

[Icehawk]

How are they on the line? I could see the game coming to down to that especially if the refs call games tighter.

 

[navery12]

How are they on the line? I could see the game coming to down to that especially if the refs call games tighter.

70.2%, 208th in the country. We're at 73.1% and 96th in the country

 

[SlicinNDyson11]

2P FG%: 54th best
3P%: 205th best, however opponents attempt 305th highest ratio of 3PA:

• I'm combining these stats to one idea. Noting their interior defense I'm surprised more teams don't fire away from deep against Maryland, maybe it's an ACC thing. I wouldn't settle for 3s, but some good perimeter looks could be had for Polley, Cole, etc.

Teams do fire away from 3 against Maryland, the data is meant to be interpreted as 305th worst ratio (higher average = worse ranking) of 3 point attempts to field goal attempted ratio, the NCAA average is 37.4% Maryland's defensive average is 41.8% meaning 41.8% of opponents shots come from 3 well above the NCAA average number that's why they're ranked 305th . If you look at point distribution as well Maryland opponents get 37.3% of their points from three pointers, above the NCAA average of 33.8%.

 

[Icehawk]

I thought I'd posted it earlier but I wish the map was interactive - I would love to see who is playing so poorly from under the right side of the basket.

 

[SlicinNDyson11]

I thought I'd posted it earlier but I wish the map was interactive - I would love to see who is playing so poorly from under the right side of the basket.

You can go to cbbanalytics.com, it's where you'll find those maps for the team each individual player, lineup logs, on/off combos, etc. free to sign up to

 

[Tenspro2002]

Teams do fire away from 3 against Maryland, the data is meant to be interpreted as 305th worst ratio (higher average = worse ranking) of 3 point attempts to field goal attempted ratio, the NCAA average is 37.4% Maryland's defensive average is 41.8% meaning 41.8% of opponents shots come from 3 well above the NCAA average number that's why they're ranked 305th . If you look at point distribution as well Maryland opponents get 37.3% of their points from three pointers, above the NCAA average of 33.8%.

Very good chance this game comes down to:

• making 3's (if we have a 5-22 type game, we lose, 10-24 we win)
• mismatches on defense, both at the 1 and the 5 (can't give up back-down layups to their big guards, and can't be drawn away from the basket and give up 3s to their undersized bigs)

 

[UConnStats]

Awesome stuff @auror. Although I will say our offensive heat chart just makes me mad lol

Interesting matchup for us defensively. Scott usually plays center. Whaley can guard him anywhere, but Sanogo defending him on the perimeter could be an issue. And Wiggins at the 4 could give either of our bigs issues. Maryland is 45th in 3PA Rate, so it would be nice for Hurley & co. to stick to his brand and take away the 3 point line. In this sense they’re reminiscent of Creighton, but hopefully here we can actually put the ball in the hoop on the other end.

The flip side to Maryland’s lack of a true big is that there isn’t a single player on that team that should be able to defend Sanogo well in the post. We have to keep pounding it with the big boy. Scott is the only person with the size to hold his ground out of the major minute players, but really can’t afford to get into foul trouble (which he rarely does). I’d be all for cuts to the rim too, but teams can sag off of the perimeter against UConn, that hasn’t been much of a factor this year. Bouknight making 3s would really open things up, but that hasn’t happened most of the season.

Maryland’s guards are big. Most of the time the shortest player on the floor will be 6’5. Could be trouble for Cole, but he’s faster than Ayala. Bouk, Martin, and Jackson are a more athletic group than Maryland’s guards/wings too (Wiggins is the best athlete of that bunch). Maryland likes to slow teams down. In fact they barely even crash the offensive glass (327th) or gamble for TOs (289th). So any points we can steal in transition will be huge.

While they’re a good defensive rebounding team (58th in the country), we’re going to have the height advantage inside. I think it’s a game where we should have the rebounding margin in our favor.

I’m thinking it will be a rock fight. When UConn makes their 3s, they look like they can beat anyone. But they’re more likely to struggle to find ways to score outside of Sanogo post ups and Bouknight isolation than they are to have a 40% night from deep. As long as our defense plays up to par, I like UConn in a stressful one, but I wouldn’t be betting on this one.

X Factors:
1) Can Polley guard Hart/Wiggins? Good offensive matchup if he can stay on the court defensively

2) Martin. I think he’ll play a lot due to Maryland playing 4 perimeter players. He’s 1/17 from 3 in recent games, but I’m not worried about that. We don’t need him to shoot. We can’t have him shooting 20% inside the arc like he did against Creighton though. No more layup woes. It’s tournament time

 

[ucawn]

MD will not want to go to their bench, hence the slow pace. Not only are we a better team when we play fast but MD obviously plays slow for a reason. Use our depth to our advantage and exploit their lack of depth. Also MD is good at fouling but I know a guy named James B who’s pretty darn good at getting to wherever he wants on the court.

 

[UConnSwag11]

Worried about how the refs will call this

 

[ucawn]

This is a big Polley game. Need him to be effective (so basically hit your shots). He will have such a height advantage over the MD defenders he shouldn’t reallly have an issue. Again, we always feed Sanogo early to control the paint and we should continue that on Saturday. I’m hoping that he can draw a foul or 2 on Scott.

 

[Excalibur]

5 out is a stupid offensive approach and it is easier to fastbreak against than more traditional offenses. Every 5 out set ends with one or two offensive players in the corners. The corner is as far away from being back on defense as one can get and still be on the court. Also, by not having a contested rebound, the defense's outlet pass is that much faster and can be more aggressive up the court.

The Heat making the NBA finals last year should have been the final nail in the coffin of 5 out small ball, but too many coaches are too stuck in their ways to understand that 5 out basketball represents a gross misunderstanding of the underlying probabilities.

Maryland plays with one guy in the paint and makes the conscious decision to not contest offensive boards in order to dictate tempo. It has little to do with 5 out.

 

[superjohn]

Feed Sanogo and try to push pace. Don't overthink it and don't let Maryland dictate how we play.

 

[auror]

The flip side to Maryland’s lack of a true big is that there isn’t a single player on that team that should be able to defend Sanogo well in the post. We have to keep pounding it with the big boy. Scott is the only person with the size to hold his ground, but really can’t afford to get into foul trouble (which he rarely does). I’d be all for cuts to the rim too, but teams can sag off of the perimeter against UConn, that hasn’t been much of a factor this year. Bouknight making 3s would really open things up, but that hasn’t happened most of the season.

We need to pound it in to Sanogo early and get them to bring in Galin Smith to deal with him. Unlike Nova, they actually have a traditional big to bring in to try and stop Sanogo, but it's probably actually a trap (it'll weaken them more than stop us). This should crowd the paint more when they are on offense as our bigs can sag off him and play more of our traditional defense and prevent easy drives by Wiggins, Ayala, and Morsell, leading to more jumpers from their mediocre shooters.

Agreed if Bouk and Cole make 3s we win easily.

X Factors:
1) Can Polley guard Hart/Wiggins? Good offensive matchup if he can stay on the court defensively

Hart - Yes.
Wiggins - Dubious.

 

[UConnStats]

We need to pound it in to Sanogo early and get them to bring in Galin Smith to deal with him. Unlike Nova, they actually have a traditional big to bring in to try and stop Sanogo, but it's probably actually a trap (it'll weaken them more than stop us). This should crowd the paint more when they are on offense as our bigs can sag off him and play more of our traditional defense and prevent easy drives by Wiggins, Ayala, and Morsell, leading to more jumpers from their mediocre shooters.

Agreed if Bouk and Cole make 3s we win easily.


Hart - Yes.
Wiggins - Dubious.

Yeah I agree too. But like you said, Hart is typically a decoy (although he’s had a couple big games), so you hope Polley can stick to him at least. Polley hasn’t exactly been lighting it up himself either though.

 

[Umami Zen]

Yeah Nova with worse shooting but bigger guards..

I'll take that comp any day!

 

[Bonehead]

you talking about the heat team that played significant playoff minutes with andre iguodala and solomon hill at center??

in the nba, corner threes are probably the most valued shot outside of a layup/dunk. they are closer than a wing or top-of-the-key three on the nba court and certain players (e.g. pj tucker) practice them religiously and can hit open ones at a rate of 50-percent or better. it's obviously not the same in college (it's a different court and overall skill level) but having shooters in the corners isn't going away any time soon...

He predicted the Lakers wouldn't make that playoffs last year.

 

[superjohn]

you talking about the heat team that played significant playoff minutes with andre iguodala and solomon hill at center??

in the nba, corner threes are probably the most valued shot outside of a layup/dunk. they are closer than a wing or top-of-the-key three on the nba court and certain players (e.g. pj tucker) practice them religiously and can hit open ones at a rate of 50-percent or better. it's obviously not the same in college (it's a different court and overall skill level) but having shooters in the corners isn't going away any time soon...

Something will be done about all the three point shooting though, it's hurting the game.

 

[gsmooth]

Dare I say it...would this be a good game to mix in some zone/match-up zone?

As long as it doesn't confuse the Husky players and they are able to execute it in practice well, sure. Maryland would be caught off guard. Kind of like what Boeheim did to Pitino in 1996 final when he started out playing man-to-man.

 

[Excalibur]

The big guards are my biggest worry. Teams have had success spreading out the floor and backing our guards down. Not really in their wheelhouse, but will they try it against us?

Bump.