#10 Maryland Scouting Report

[auror]

#10 Maryland - 15-13 overall (B1G 10-12)
Key wins: @Wisconsin, @Illinois, @Minnesota,, Purdue, @Rutgers, (N) Michigan St
Bad losses: None.
Metrics Average -34 (KenPom - 31, Torvik - 35, Sagarin - 32, BPI - 43, 538 - 31)
Coach: Mark Turgeon - Tourny record 7-8, highest seed - 4.

Shot location heatmap (courtesy Reddit user Eise87): Bigger is more frequent, redder is better shooting% than average, bluer is worse.

Rotation
Erick Ayala - Jr., 6'5" 200 lbs - 55% 2pt, 34% 3pt - Frequently plays in transition, pick and roll, and when off ball spots up for 3. High volume 3pt. 2nd most shots on team, shoot first PG.

Darryl Morsell - Sr, 6'5" 200 lbs - 55% 2pt, 25% 3pt - DPOTY in the B1G. Scores primarily off of cuts and in transition. Bad shooter from 3 and FT line. Heart and soul of the team, decent passer.

Hakim Hart - So, 6'6" 205 lbs - 55% 2pt, 33% 3pt - Low usage role player. Mostly spot up and used as decoy for spacing.

Aaron Wiggins - Jr, 6'6" 200 lbs - 51% 2pt, 32% 3pt - Takes the most shots on the team, both 3s and 2s. A lot of iso against mismatches, off ball screens, cuts and transition. Strong, long, and athletic.

Donta Scott - So, 6'7" 230 lbs - 55% 2pt, 44% 3pt - Can pick and pop, but also post up and pass a bit for a big. Mobile and good cutter for his size.

--

Jairus Hamilton - Jr, 6'8" 235 lbs - 47% 2pt, 44% 3pt - Bench big used similarly to Scott, but also plays alongside him. Not a great rebounder.

Galin Smith - Sr, 6'9" 235 lbs - 53% 2pt, 0% 3pt - More traditional big. More rim protection than the others. Most often played alongside one of the other bigs.

Reese Mona - Sr, 6'2" 185 lbs - N/a, n/a - Emergency guard. Basically never shoots. Only plays 5-10 minutes a game.

Team Fingerprint
Defensive style - Man to man.

• What are they worst at?
  • Offensive rebounding. They don't really even try, in favor of getting back on D.
• What are they best at?
  • Solid team defense without fouling. They will slow you down and grind you. They don't get a lot of steals, but they do an okay job on the defensive boards despite their height. Through switching a lot of screens and post doubles they're able to keep most teams out of the paint. They also do an excellent job with their help rotations.
• Where are they vulnerable?
  • The perimeter. The collapsing and swarming nature of their D leads to fruitful kick outs out of the post and off of penetration. Sanogo kicking out for a corner 3 when the nearest guard pinches down will be important. If you get a clean post look or offensive rebound, there isn't a ton of shot-blocking.
• How do they score on offense?
  • They stretch you out with 4 or 5 out and run Ayala and Wiggins in pick and roll and have their big guys slip + pop to draw away shotblockers. They also run a few curl sets with off ball screens for Wiggins and Morsell to get them into favorable matchups and/or movement heading towards the basket for a cut or to penetrate. They kick out to shooters everywhere. Their bigs are much better shooters than their guards. Their guards, especially Ayala, Wiggins, and Morsell, love to attack the rim. When Scott posts up, he looks to kick out to shooters. A lot of off ball cutting in general. Villanova-esque.

Video links
Ayala in action
How they'll defend Sanogo
Hamilton slip and pop
Scott post and kick out
They run this off ball screen on the right to free up Wiggins to drive with his left hand to the basket several times a game.
This baseline backdoor cut is straight out of Nova's playbook.
This circle screening and cutting reminds me of Creighton

 

[UKemba15]

#10 Maryland - 15-13 overall (B1G 10-12)
Key wins: @Wisconsin, @Illinois, @Minnesota,, Purdue, @Rutgers, (N) Michigan St
Bad losses: None.
Metrics Average -34 (KenPom - 31, Torvik - 35, Sagarin - 32, BPI - 43, 538 - 31)
Coach: Mark Turgeon - Tourny record 7-8, highest seed - 4.

Shot location heatmap (courtesy Reddit user Eise87): Bigger is more frequent, redder is better shooting% than average, bluer is worse.

Rotation
Erick Ayala - Jr., 6'5" 200 lbs - 55% 2pt, 34% 3pt - Frequently plays in transition, pick and roll, and when off ball spots up for 3. High volume 3pt. 2nd most shots on team, shoot first PG.

Darryl Morsell - Sr, 6'5" 200 lbs - 55% 2pt, 25% 3pt - DPOTY in the B1G. Scores primarily off of cuts and in transition. Bad shooter from 3 and FT line. Heart and soul of the team, decent passer.

Hakim Hart - So, 6'6" 205 lbs - 55% 2pt, 33% 3pt - Low usage role player. Mostly spot up and used as decoy for spacing.

Aaron Wiggins - Jr, 6'6" 200 lbs - 51% 2pt, 32% 3pt - Takes the most shots on the team, both 3s and 2s. A lot of iso against mismatches, off ball screens, cuts and transition. Strong, long, and athletic.

Donta Scott - So, 6'7" 230 lbs - 55% 2pt, 44% 3pt - Can pick and pop, but also post up and pass a bit for a big. Mobile and good cutter for his size.

--

Jairus Hamilton - Jr, 6'8" 235 lbs - 47% 2pt, 44% 3pt - Bench big used similarly to Scott, but also plays alongside him. Not a great rebounder.

Galin Smith - Sr, 6'9" 235 lbs - 53% 2pt, 0% 3pt - More traditional big. More rim protection than the others. Most often played alongside one of the other bigs.

Reese Mona - Sr, 6'2" 185 lbs - N/a, n/a - Emergency guard. Basically never shoots. Only plays 5-10 minutes a game.

Team Fingerprint
Defensive style - Man to man.

• What are they worst at?
  • Offensive rebounding. They don't really even try, in favor of getting back on D.
• What are they best at?
  • Solid team defense without fouling. They will slow you down and grind you. They don't get a lot of steals, but they do an okay job on the defensive boards despite their height. Through switching a lot of screens and post doubles they're able to keep most teams out of the paint. They also do an excellent job with their help rotations.
• Where are they vulnerable?
  • The perimeter. The collapsing and swarming nature of their D leads to fruitful kick outs out of the post and off of penetration. Sanogo kicking out for a corner 3 when the nearest guard pinches down will be important. If you get a clean post look or offensive rebound, there isn't a ton of shot-blocking.
• How do they score on offense?
  • They stretch you out with 4 or 5 out and run Ayala and Wiggins in pick and roll and have their big guys slip + pop to draw away shotblockers. They also run a few curl sets with off ball screens for Wiggins and Morsell to get them into favorable matchups and/or movement heading towards the basket for a cut or to penetrate. They kick out to shooters everywhere. Their bigs are much better shooters than their guards. Their guards, especially Ayala, Wiggins, and Morsell, love to attack the rim. When Scott posts up, he looks to kick out to shooters. A lot of off ball cutting in general. Villanova-esque.

Video links
Ayala in action
How they'll defend Sanogo
Hamilton slip and pop
Scott post and kick out
They run this off ball screen on the right to free up Wiggins to drive with his left hand to the basket several times a game.
This baseline backdoor cut is straight out of Nova's playbook.
This circle screening and cutting reminds me of Creighton

You are awesome for writing this up. And for other things, but right now writing this up is most awesome. Thanks @auror !

 

[Tenspro2002]

Love the heat maps.

Looks like Maryland is great at finishing around the rim and shooting 3's, while we defend both of those pretty well.

Their interior defense is so-so, and their perimeter defense is bad. We're going to need big games from Cole, Gaffney, and Polley, and for Bouknight and Martin to get over their shooting slumps.

My biggest concern is how Sanogo will defend their mobile bigs who are comfortable shooting from the outside. If he's not dominating on offense, he's going to be a major liability and we'll have to go small.

 

[UConn Esq]

Other than the O-rebs, it sounds like they play very similar style to us. Is that what your take was too OP?

Great work on this!

 

[Son of Robert]

#10 Maryland - 15-13 overall (B1G 10-12)
Key wins: @Wisconsin, @Illinois, @Minnesota,, Purdue, @Rutgers, (N) Michigan St
Bad losses: None.
Metrics Average -34 (KenPom - 31, Torvik - 35, Sagarin - 32, BPI - 43, 538 - 31)
Coach: Mark Turgeon - Tourny record 7-8, highest seed - 4.

Shot location heatmap (courtesy Reddit user Eise87): Bigger is more frequent, redder is better shooting% than average, bluer is worse.

Rotation
Erick Ayala - Jr., 6'5" 200 lbs - 55% 2pt, 34% 3pt - Frequently plays in transition, pick and roll, and when off ball spots up for 3. High volume 3pt. 2nd most shots on team, shoot first PG.

Darryl Morsell - Sr, 6'5" 200 lbs - 55% 2pt, 25% 3pt - DPOTY in the B1G. Scores primarily off of cuts and in transition. Bad shooter from 3 and FT line. Heart and soul of the team, decent passer.

Hakim Hart - So, 6'6" 205 lbs - 55% 2pt, 33% 3pt - Low usage role player. Mostly spot up and used as decoy for spacing.

Aaron Wiggins - Jr, 6'6" 200 lbs - 51% 2pt, 32% 3pt - Takes the most shots on the team, both 3s and 2s. A lot of iso against mismatches, off ball screens, cuts and transition. Strong, long, and athletic.

Donta Scott - So, 6'7" 230 lbs - 55% 2pt, 44% 3pt - Can pick and pop, but also post up and pass a bit for a big. Mobile and good cutter for his size.

--

Jairus Hamilton - Jr, 6'8" 235 lbs - 47% 2pt, 44% 3pt - Bench big used similarly to Scott, but also plays alongside him. Not a great rebounder.

Galin Smith - Sr, 6'9" 235 lbs - 53% 2pt, 0% 3pt - More traditional big. More rim protection than the others. Most often played alongside one of the other bigs.

Reese Mona - Sr, 6'2" 185 lbs - N/a, n/a - Emergency guard. Basically never shoots. Only plays 5-10 minutes a game.

Team Fingerprint
Defensive style - Man to man.

• What are they worst at?
  • Offensive rebounding. They don't really even try, in favor of getting back on D.
• What are they best at?
  • Solid team defense without fouling. They will slow you down and grind you. They don't get a lot of steals, but they do an okay job on the defensive boards despite their height. Through switching a lot of screens and post doubles they're able to keep most teams out of the paint. They also do an excellent job with their help rotations.
• Where are they vulnerable?
  • The perimeter. The collapsing and swarming nature of their D leads to fruitful kick outs out of the post and off of penetration. Sanogo kicking out for a corner 3 when the nearest guard pinches down will be important. If you get a clean post look or offensive rebound, there isn't a ton of shot-blocking.
• How do they score on offense?
  • They stretch you out with 4 or 5 out and run Ayala and Wiggins in pick and roll and have their big guys slip + pop to draw away shotblockers. They also run a few curl sets with off ball screens for Wiggins and Morsell to get them into favorable matchups and/or movement heading towards the basket for a cut or to penetrate. They kick out to shooters everywhere. Their bigs are much better shooters than their guards. Their guards, especially Ayala, Wiggins, and Morsell, love to attack the rim. When Scott posts up, he looks to kick out to shooters. A lot of off ball cutting in general. Villanova-esque.

Video links
Ayala in action
How they'll defend Sanogo
Hamilton slip and pop
Scott post and kick out
They run this off ball screen on the right to free up Wiggins to drive with his left hand to the basket several times a game.
This baseline backdoor cut is straight out of Nova's playbook.
This circle screening and cutting reminds me of Creighton

Dude, you've outdone yourself. Masterful job putting this together, thank you so much. I actually feel informed for a change.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Great write up.

FWIW the Mich St. defense in some of those plays you highlighted is straight-up horrible. I think we will defend & neutralize some of that stuff much better.

 

[auror]

Other than the O-rebs, it sounds like they play very similar style to us. Is that what your take was too OP?

Great work on this!

It's like they play 4 slightly smaller, unselfish Tyrese Martins who all can actually finish and run Villanova's offense (but don't try to rebound on offense). Plus 1 college version Boris Diaw

 

[auror]

Great write up.

FWIW the Mich St. defense in some of those plays you highlighted is straight-up horrible. I think we will defend & neutralize some of that stuff much better.

I agree, but it's just picking certain plays that Maryland scored on, so there's certainly selection bias. On the year, Mich St defense is about as good as ours, if in a different style. Maryland's spacing makes it hard to help and protect the rim.

 

[UChusky916]

Great write-up! Thanks for taking the time.

The more I read about Maryland, the more I feel they're going to be a really tough match-up for us. Our team's 2 biggest strengths this year have been 2-LEVEL DEFENSE and REBOUNDING. Maryland's play style will create problems for us there.

The fact that MD has 5 guys that can play on the perimeter offensively will be a challenge for us defensively. We thrive on our 2-level defense... guards defending aggressively on the perimeter and switching, overplaying a bit and recovering knowing they have shot-blockers behind them protecting the rim. Maryland's bigs being on the perimeter will open up space in the lane for their driving guards.

I think back to when we struggled in the Creighton game... their bigs (Mahoney, Bishop, and Jefferson) spent a lot of time on the perimeter offensively, pulling Sanogo and Whaley out of the paint. Zegarowski and Bishop then had their way driving into the lane and bullying our guys 1v1 for buckets... with no shot-blockers there to help out.
That style of play (pulling the bigs out of the paint) also hurt our rebounding. Our bigs were not near the hoop to rebound vs Creighton because they were guarding on the perimeter... and when they did recover to the paint, they went for blocks, leaving them out of position for rebounds.

By all accounts, Maryland will play very similar to this. Their offensive strengths (5-out offense, opening space in the paint, driving guards) conflict with our strengths of aggressive 2-level defending and rebounding.

On the other side of the ball... they're a solid defensive team and likely will play the BIG10 DPOY on our best offensive weapon (Bouk). Hopefully we can get enough from Sanogo down low to overcome that.... but he needs to stay out of foul trouble. And at this point, we don't know if Cole will play due to concussion protocol.
We saw first-hand how bad we looked on offense when Bouk isn't cooking and with Cole out.

 

[Excalibur]

The big guards are my biggest worry. Teams have had success spreading out the floor and backing our guards down. Not really in their wheelhouse, but will they try it against us?

 

[HuskyBoi]

This is an Andre Jackson and Tyrese Martin game defending with a small lineup with Whaley at the 5 I think

 

[Huskybass]

Our Kenpom is 16, theirs is 31. 7 point W.

 

[SellersElbow]

Wow, thank you for this analysis!

All their size on perimeter is going to be a serious challenge for Cole, especially if he is not back to ? yet. I hope he is watching film of Boatright’s 2014 performance against Kentucky.

While I’m wishing, it would be great if Whaley could pick up some pointers from DeAndre’s 2014 tourney performance, as well!

 

[HuskyBoi]

Wow, thank you for this analysis!

All their size on perimeter is going to be a serious challenge for Cole, especially if he is not back to ? yet. I hope he is watching film of Boatright’s 2014 performance against Kentucky.

While I’m wishing, it would be great if Whaley could pick up some pointers from DeAndre’s 2014 tourney performance, as well!

Get Whaley listening to every Metallica song before the game

 

[Tenspro2002]

The big guards are my biggest worry. Teams have had success spreading out the floor and backing our guards down. Not really in their wheelhouse, but will they try it against us?

Yeah, this is another concern, and on offense too. They have a defensive stopper who's exactly Bouk's size, plus two other big guards. We're going to need Bouknight or Jackson to do a lot of drive and kick action. Cole should be a spot-up shooter and not try to get to the rim.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Great write up.

FWIW the Mich St. defense in some of those plays you highlighted is straight-up horrible. I think we will defend & neutralize some of that stuff much better.

Agree. I think Maryland's D is not great either. I am feeling pretty good about this game as long was we don't try to match their style. Make Maryland adjust to us, not the other way around.

 

[huskiesNhoos]

dare I say, could Adams see some minutes in this game? He would at least provide solid defense to help rotate on their cast of bigger guards. Just give him explicit instructions not to shoot

 

[NJHusky]

Wow...this is awesome...thx

It's crazy to look at it this way....

Am I reading this correct....do we really suck as bad as the heatmap shows in the paint?? Now compare that to MD!

We should not be shooting 3's from the left side of the court...the disparity of L v R of the key is crazy for us!

And we should only be shooting bunnies from the left side of the basket...crazy how Left v Right out stats skew!

Can you send this to DH...

 

[auror]

I honestly don't love the matchup.

Our defense is designed to prevent 3s and when other teams attack, we defend the paint.

Running them off the 3pt line where they are kinda bad but like to shoot from, just plays into their hidden strength of finishing at the basket. All 5 starters hit 50%+ from 2 and their 4 main paint finishers all hit 60+% at the rim (for comparison Bouk is 64% at rim and Cole is 38%). And their spacing will make it so that we can't defend the rim as well as usual.

On offense, we're going to absolutely have to play inside-out. That worked vs. Creighton until they adjusted and we were much less effective getting the ball inside after the first 10 minutes. It's a lot to put on freshman Adama.

 

[ucp990411]

This is very impressive. Thanks. I have watched them play a little and they look like they love to shoot 3s to the point they appear to be undisciplined about it. We worry about the guard match ups but are their guards athletic enough to contain Bouk and RJ? We will need to force the tempo, from what I know this could be a game for Polley.

 

[tennmike]

Agree. I think Maryland's D is not great either. I am feeling pretty good about this game as long was we don't try to match their style. Make Maryland adjust to us, not the other way around.

Agree with your last comment. In Hurley's pre-tourney conference yesterday, he mentioned something to the effect of how difficult the game will be for Sanogo.. Perhaps he's being coy, but I hope that Adama makes it real difficult for Maryland.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

My biggest concern is how Sanogo will defend their mobile bigs who are comfortable shooting from the outside. If he's not dominating on offense, he's going to be a major liability and we'll have to go small.

Seems like he'll be the most interesting storyline for us. From the looks of it, they'll look to double him in the post as much as possible and while he's struggled with that at times, he's also shown some improvement there recently. Something has to give. Either they will force us to go small or we'll force them to go bigger.

 

[auror]

Am I reading this correct....do we really suck as bad as the heatmap shows in the paint?? Now compare that to MD!

We should not be shooting 3's from the left side of the court...the disparity of L v R of the key is crazy for us!

Can you send this to DH...

Yes we've been awful finishing in the paint. The one heat spot near the basket is definitely Adama's favorite spot. Cole, Polley, Gaffney, and Adams were abysmal in the paint this year. Martin was bad for a while but has gotten better as the season has gone on. Carlton and Whaley (and still Martin) should be a bit better based on their height.

 

[GetTheFacts]

I’ve watched a few of their games and they don’t do anything special. They go through long droughts on the offensive end.

But Morsell could neutralize Bouk, especially when you factor in his recent “slump” if you want to call it that. He doesn’t seem to be all the way back from his injury.

Cole, Martin, Polley and Sanogo will have to step up if that occurs.

 

[NJHusky]

Yes we've been awful finishing in the paint. The one heat spot near the basket is definitely Adama's favorite spot. Cole, Polley, Gaffney, and Adams were abysmal in the paint this year. Martin was bad for a while but has gotten better as the season has gone on. Carlton and Whaley (and still Martin) should be a bit better based on their height.

Honestly, that heat map in the paint would be bad for a pee-wee team

How many points do you think we leave on the floor with missed bunnies each game? 10+?