#10 Maryland Scouting Report

[HuskyHawk]

Great write-up! Thanks for taking the time.

The more I read about Maryland, the more I feel they're going to be a really tough match-up for us. Our team's 2 biggest strengths this year have been 2-LEVEL DEFENSE and REBOUNDING. Maryland's play style will create problems for us there.

The fact that MD has 5 guys that can play on the perimeter offensively will be a challenge for us defensively. We thrive on our 2-level defense... guards defending aggressively on the perimeter and switching, overplaying a bit and recovering knowing they have shot-blockers behind them protecting the rim. Maryland's bigs being on the perimeter will open up space in the lane for their driving guards.

I think back to when we struggled in the Creighton game... their bigs (Mahaney, Bishop, and Jefferson) spent a lot of time on the perimeter offensively, pulling Sanogo and Whaley out of the paint. Zegarowski and Bishop then had their way driving into the lane and bullying our guys 1v1 for buckets... with no shot-blockers there to help out.
That style of play (pulling the bigs out of the paint) also hurt our rebounding. Our bigs were not near the hoop to rebound vs Creighton because they were guarding on the perimeter... and when they did recover to the paint, they went for blocks, leaving them out of position for rebounds.

By all accounts, Maryland will play very similar to this. Their offensive strengths (5-out offense, opening space in the paint, driving guards) conflict with our strengths of aggressive 2-level defending and rebounding.

On the other side of the ball... they're a solid defensive team and likely will play the BIG10 DPOY on our best offensive weapon (Bouk). Hopefully we can get enough from Sanogo down low to overcome that.... but he needs to stay out of foul trouble. And at this point, we don't know if Cole will play due to concussion protocol.
We saw first-hand how bad we looked on offense when Bouk isn't cooking and with Cole out.

Teams pulling our bigs out and attacking the rim on penetration has been our nemesis all year. It’s critical that we do not hard hedge unless with Whaley when he is at the 4. Cannot leave the paint open. These guys score at the rim, look at that chart. I see that we defend the 3 better on the same side they shoot it better (Martin‘s defensive assignment).

If we make the mistake we made against St. John’s and play small to match up, we will likely lose this game. I think we need to overwhelm them inside with size and offensive rebounding on the offensive end. On defense, protect that rim and surrender the 3 if we have to. Force them to go bigger.

 

[Excalibur]

Agree. I think Maryland's D is not great either. I am feeling pretty good about this game as long was we don't try to match their style. Make Maryland adjust to us, not the other way around.

They have the easier job. By not contesting offensive rebounds, they effectively negate any ability we have to run.

 

[McLovin]

They have the easier job. By not contesting offensive rebounds, they effectively negate any ability we have to run.

This. Maryland gets back on defense (they are the worst in the field at offensive rebounding) and our opportunity for open transition shots is going to be slim to none. We should push it off live ball turnovers or long rebounds if we have numbers, but will have to control the pace otherwise. We need to be deliberate with our shots, dominate down low but focus on getting our shooters going early. It was great to have Sanogo dominating early vs Creighton, but we didn't get the rest of our offense into the game. When he was forced out with fouls, the rest of our offense was ice cold. Need to get an early lather for Cole and Martin. Hit a few open shots in the first few minutes. Then start feeding the post.

 

[OkaForPrez]

They killed us playing 5 out because Hurley sat our best weapon the final 12 minutes of the game. So not only did our defense stink at the end of that game, but we couldn't score either. Same thing happened against Creighton when Sanogo was forced to the bench with fouls. As soon as he came out they destroyed us in the paint and we couldn't score or rebound. We need 30+ minutes from Sanogo on Saturday.

I know this is a two camp topic on the board. I agree with defense first philosophically and if you can't stay in front of your man you can't stay on the court. We have the benefit of hindsight on what that did to us on the offensive end. Having BAdams play the role of Bouk in that scenario explains alot of the offensive outage. This time around I think its a more viable strategy to have Adama off the floor.

That being said, this board will be in full meltdown mode if we play that way and lose.

 

[Umami Zen]

@auror .Excellent data/overview.. Seems like a Nova-oriented offensive scheme .Our secondary scorers are going to have to provide support to Bouk if he gets taken out of his game by Morsall ..

Boards and D.. Make those FTs.

 

[auror]

@auror .Excellent data/overview.. Seems like a Nova-oriented offensive scheme .Our secondary scorers are going to have to provide support to Bouk if he gets taken out of his game by Morsall ..

Boards and D.. Make those FTs.

Yeah Nova with worse shooting but bigger guards..

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Teams pulling our bigs out and attacking the rim on penetration has been our nemesis all year. It’s critical that we do not hard hedge unless with Whaley when he is at the 4. Cannot leave the paint open. These guys score at the rim, look at that chart. I see that we defend the 3 better on the same side they shoot it better (Martin‘s defensive assignment).

If we make the mistake we made against St. John’s and play small to match up, we will likely lose this game. I think we need to overwhelm them inside with size and offensive rebounding on the offensive end. On defense, protect that rim and surrender the 3 if we have to. Force them to go bigger.

Dare I say it...would this be a good game to mix in some zone/match-up zone?

 

[auror]

Dare I say it...would this be a good game to mix in some zone/match-up zone?

I think 100% it is, but I doubt we do it. I read some Maryland boards that said they were glad we play man because they struggle with zone. Mediocre but willing guard shooting, no rebounding, want to drive. Seems perfect for zone.

 

[PAHusky]

Yes we've been awful finishing in the paint. The one heat spot near the basket is definitely Adama's favorite spot. Cole, Polley, Gaffney, and Adams were abysmal in the paint this year. Martin was bad for a while but has gotten better as the season has gone on. Carlton and Whaley (and still Martin) should be a bit better based on their height.

Spot on. Cole has Alterique Gilbert syndrome in that he constantly finds himself too deep in the post on drives and then gets stuffed. Polley is pretty awful around the rim but honestly, I'm willing to let him miss a few because his drives at least keep his man honest. Gaffney is 85% decent finishes at the rim and 15% "w.t.f was that". Martin is so hit or miss that it's actually insane. If he weren't such a good offensive rebounder I think it would be even more ridiculous how many bunnies he misses. Not knocking the kid too much as I love everything about him and the A-town boys need to stick together, but he'd be the ultimate college swiss army knife with slightly better finishing.

 

[Deadrody]

Honestly, that heat map in the paint would be bad for a pee-wee team

How many points do you think we leave on the floor with missed bunnies each game? 10+?

It was enough to be the difference in the BET finals against Creighton. We missed 4-5 layups, easy

 

[SlicinNDyson11]

Offensively it's going to be important to watch how many three pointers we attempt, Maryland as you said loves to switch, they'll switch almost everything one through 4, depending on their lineup one through 5. With their defenders sitting in driving lanes, it's going to be easy to fall in love with three's and with these guys they recover QUICK and contest. This was a massive problem for us against Villanova who obviously played a similar style of defense, we shot almost as many three's (27) as we did two's (28), for our team and how we want to play that is not a recipe for success. Other things to watch offensively, Sanogo against post doubles (his passing out of the post is still developing obviously has not been great against double teams), roll and replace with Polley (Maryland has struggled against this all year), and our screen game strategy specifically the usage of slips, multiple screens (screening the screener, double ball screens, double screen into a flare etc.), (Maryland occasionally has shown to have communication problems against this), and ghost screens (we'll run this with occasionally with Bouknight but it's typically a ghost screen into a flare screen, against Villanova the initial ghost screen would generate space for Bouknight but by running him off the flare we made it easier for Villanova to recover and switch by bringing the extra defender we need to either have the screener slip the flare in this situation or just ditch the flare all together, ditching it gives Bouknight more space on the catch).

 

[nelsonmuntz]

They have the easier job. By not contesting offensive rebounds, they effectively negate any ability we have to run.

5 out is a stupid offensive approach and it is easier to fastbreak against than more traditional offenses. Every 5 out set ends with one or two offensive players in the corners. The corner is as far away from being back on defense as one can get and still be on the court. Also, by not having a contested rebound, the defense's outlet pass is that much faster and can be more aggressive up the court.

The Heat making the NBA finals last year should have been the final nail in the coffin of 5 out small ball, but too many coaches are too stuck in their ways to understand that 5 out basketball represents a gross misunderstanding of the underlying probabilities.

 

[bendm]

Bad losses: None.

NW isnt considered a bad loss?

 

[auror]

5 out is a stupid offensive approach and it is easier to fastbreak against than more traditional offenses. Every 5 out set ends with one or two offensive players in the corners. The corner is as far away from being back on defense as one can get and still be on the court. Also, by not having a contested rebound, the defense's outlet pass is that much faster and can be more aggressive up the court.

The Heat making the NBA finals last year should have been the final nail in the coffin of 5 out small ball, but too many coaches are too stuck in their ways to understand that 5 out basketball represents a gross misunderstanding of the underlying probabilities.

They are 331st in defensive tempo. Other teams are not successful in getting short possessions against Maryland. So whether or not you think it's easy, it has not happened.

They may have 1 guy in the corner, but that guy is getting guarded by someone who is taken out also. So then you're left with 4 guys in front of the ball and the opposing 4 guys.

 

[auror]

NW isnt considered a bad loss?

Judging by KenPom on the road it's not. They were top 70, so it's actually an 'A' game. I get that people might have other opinions on it based on this B1G possibly inflated season, though. NET it was top 100 road game so Q2, about the same as losing to Providence or Marquette on the road.

 

[AdamaNation]

Great write-up! Thanks for taking the time.

The more I read about Maryland, the more I feel they're going to be a really tough match-up for us. Our team's 2 biggest strengths this year have been 2-LEVEL DEFENSE and REBOUNDING. Maryland's play style will create problems for us there.

The fact that MD has 5 guys that can play on the perimeter offensively will be a challenge for us defensively. We thrive on our 2-level defense... guards defending aggressively on the perimeter and switching, overplaying a bit and recovering knowing they have shot-blockers behind them protecting the rim. Maryland's bigs being on the perimeter will open up space in the lane for their driving guards.

I think back to when we struggled in the Creighton game... their bigs (Mahaney, Bishop, and Jefferson) spent a lot of time on the perimeter offensively, pulling Sanogo and Whaley out of the paint. Zegarowski and Bishop then had their way driving into the lane and bullying our guys 1v1 for buckets... with no shot-blockers there to help out.
That style of play (pulling the bigs out of the paint) also hurt our rebounding. Our bigs were not near the hoop to rebound vs Creighton because they were guarding on the perimeter... and when they did recover to the paint, they went for blocks, leaving them out of position for rebounds.

By all accounts, Maryland will play very similar to this. Their offensive strengths (5-out offense, opening space in the paint, driving guards) conflict with our strengths of aggressive 2-level defending and rebounding.

On the other side of the ball... they're a solid defensive team and likely will play the BIG10 DPOY on our best offensive weapon (Bouk). Hopefully we can get enough from Sanogo down low to overcome that.... but he needs to stay out of foul trouble. And at this point, we don't know if Cole will play due to concussion protocol.
We saw first-hand how bad we looked on offense when Bouk isn't cooking and with Cole out.

Sadly. Akok was made for this matchup.

 

[elmcityboy]

5 out is a stupid offensive approach and it is easier to fastbreak against than more traditional offenses. Every 5 out set ends with one or two offensive players in the corners. The corner is as far away from being back on defense as one can get and still be on the court. Also, by not having a contested rebound, the defense's outlet pass is that much faster and can be more aggressive up the court.

The Heat making the NBA finals last year should have been the final nail in the coffin of 5 out small ball, but too many coaches are too stuck in their ways to understand that 5 out basketball represents a gross misunderstanding of the underlying probabilities.

you talking about the heat team that played significant playoff minutes with andre iguodala and solomon hill at center??

in the nba, corner threes are probably the most valued shot outside of a layup/dunk. they are closer than a wing or top-of-the-key three on the nba court and certain players (e.g. pj tucker) practice them religiously and can hit open ones at a rate of 50-percent or better. it's obviously not the same in college (it's a different court and overall skill level) but having shooters in the corners isn't going away any time soon...

 

[HuskyHawk]

Dare I say it...would this be a good game to mix in some zone/match-up zone?

I think 100% it is, but I doubt we do it. I read some Maryland boards that said they were glad we play man because they struggle with zone. Mediocre but willing guard shooting, no rebounding, want to drive. Seems perfect for zone.

Yes. Won’t be the first time. Some day he will do it. For those thinking we need to pull Sanogo, I think Sanogo is the biggest advantage we have in this game. He should lead the team in scoring and pull down 10+ boards.

Scoring inside is like running the ball in football. You do it until they show they can stop it. Relentlessly. It’s demoralizing for the other team. I don’t think they can stop it. I don’t think we can count in Bouk going off for 20+ against the B1G DPOY. He might, but relying on it is unwise.

 

[MuchoDogYears]

They killed us playing 5 out because Hurley sat our best weapon the final 12 minutes of the game. So not only did our defense stink at the end of that game, but we couldn't score either. Same thing happened against Creighton when Sanogo was forced to the bench with fouls. As soon as he came out they destroyed us in the paint and we couldn't score or rebound. We need 30+ minutes from Sanogo on Saturday.

Good point. Sanogo was the difference for us vs STJ until he took a seat on the bench. He was a matchup problem for STJ and should be against Maryland too. If Josh brings his A game when he spells Adama we should own them inside.

 

[navery12]

I know this is a two camp topic on the board. I agree with defense first philosophically and if you can't stay in front of your man you can't stay on the court. We have the benefit of hindsight on what that did to us on the offensive end. Having BAdams play the role of Bouk in that scenario explains alot of the offensive outage. This time around I think its a more viable strategy to have Adama off the floor.

That being said, this board will be in full meltdown mode if we play that way and lose.

Could have stopped after the bold part, the board will be in full meltdown mode whether we play that way and win or lose. At least a certain handful of posters

 

[Milo65]

Get every rebound! Get every rebound!

 

[Jbirdp5]

The thing that is reassuring from their style is they don’t crash the offensive glass at all. This was our biggest issue vs crieghton and they are essentially waving the white flag on it. That’s one less thing we have to worry about. If creighton had that strategy we win the game.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Great work, @auror.

Here's some notable stats from KenPom and how UConn matches up.

OFFENSE:

Tempo: 317th fastest

• UConn is 305th fastest, so expect a rock fight.

Offensive rebounding: 327th

• UConn is 28th in defensive fg% so that's a good recipe. Make them take crappy shots and we clean the glass.

45th highest ratio in 3PA, 34.9 3p%.

• UConn is 60th in 3P D, so that balances out nicely.

DEFENSE:

Turnover causing %: 289th

• Shouldn't see a lot of press, etc.

2P FG%: 54th best
3P%: 205th best, however opponents attempt 305th highest ratio of 3PA:

• I'm combining these stats to one idea. Noting their interior defense I'm surprised more teams don't fire away from deep against Maryland, maybe it's an ACC thing. I wouldn't settle for 3s, but some good perimeter looks could be had for Polley, Cole, etc.

 

[Icehawk]

How are they on the line? I could see the game coming to down to that especially if the refs call games tighter.

 

[navery12]

How are they on the line? I could see the game coming to down to that especially if the refs call games tighter.

70.2%, 208th in the country. We're at 73.1% and 96th in the country

 

[SlicinNDyson11]

2P FG%: 54th best
3P%: 205th best, however opponents attempt 305th highest ratio of 3PA:

• I'm combining these stats to one idea. Noting their interior defense I'm surprised more teams don't fire away from deep against Maryland, maybe it's an ACC thing. I wouldn't settle for 3s, but some good perimeter looks could be had for Polley, Cole, etc.

Teams do fire away from 3 against Maryland, the data is meant to be interpreted as 305th worst ratio (higher average = worse ranking) of 3 point attempts to field goal attempted ratio, the NCAA average is 37.4% Maryland's defensive average is 41.8% meaning 41.8% of opponents shots come from 3 well above the NCAA average number that's why they're ranked 305th . If you look at point distribution as well Maryland opponents get 37.3% of their points from three pointers, above the NCAA average of 33.8%.

 

[Icehawk]

I thought I'd posted it earlier but I wish the map was interactive - I would love to see who is playing so poorly from under the right side of the basket.

 

[SlicinNDyson11]

I thought I'd posted it earlier but I wish the map was interactive - I would love to see who is playing so poorly from under the right side of the basket.

You can go to cbbanalytics.com, it's where you'll find those maps for the team each individual player, lineup logs, on/off combos, etc. free to sign up to

 

[Tenspro2002]

Teams do fire away from 3 against Maryland, the data is meant to be interpreted as 305th worst ratio (higher average = worse ranking) of 3 point attempts to field goal attempted ratio, the NCAA average is 37.4% Maryland's defensive average is 41.8% meaning 41.8% of opponents shots come from 3 well above the NCAA average number that's why they're ranked 305th . If you look at point distribution as well Maryland opponents get 37.3% of their points from three pointers, above the NCAA average of 33.8%.

Very good chance this game comes down to:

• making 3's (if we have a 5-22 type game, we lose, 10-24 we win)
• mismatches on defense, both at the 1 and the 5 (can't give up back-down layups to their big guards, and can't be drawn away from the basket and give up 3s to their undersized bigs)

 

[UConnStats]

Awesome stuff @auror. Although I will say our offensive heat chart just makes me mad lol

Interesting matchup for us defensively. Scott usually plays center. Whaley can guard him anywhere, but Sanogo defending him on the perimeter could be an issue. And Wiggins at the 4 could give either of our bigs issues. Maryland is 45th in 3PA Rate, so it would be nice for Hurley & co. to stick to his brand and take away the 3 point line. In this sense they’re reminiscent of Creighton, but hopefully here we can actually put the ball in the hoop on the other end.

The flip side to Maryland’s lack of a true big is that there isn’t a single player on that team that should be able to defend Sanogo well in the post. We have to keep pounding it with the big boy. Scott is the only person with the size to hold his ground out of the major minute players, but really can’t afford to get into foul trouble (which he rarely does). I’d be all for cuts to the rim too, but teams can sag off of the perimeter against UConn, that hasn’t been much of a factor this year. Bouknight making 3s would really open things up, but that hasn’t happened most of the season.

Maryland’s guards are big. Most of the time the shortest player on the floor will be 6’5. Could be trouble for Cole, but he’s faster than Ayala. Bouk, Martin, and Jackson are a more athletic group than Maryland’s guards/wings too (Wiggins is the best athlete of that bunch). Maryland likes to slow teams down. In fact they barely even crash the offensive glass (327th) or gamble for TOs (289th). So any points we can steal in transition will be huge.

While they’re a good defensive rebounding team (58th in the country), we’re going to have the height advantage inside. I think it’s a game where we should have the rebounding margin in our favor.

I’m thinking it will be a rock fight. When UConn makes their 3s, they look like they can beat anyone. But they’re more likely to struggle to find ways to score outside of Sanogo post ups and Bouknight isolation than they are to have a 40% night from deep. As long as our defense plays up to par, I like UConn in a stressful one, but I wouldn’t be betting on this one.

X Factors:
1) Can Polley guard Hart/Wiggins? Good offensive matchup if he can stay on the court defensively

2) Martin. I think he’ll play a lot due to Maryland playing 4 perimeter players. He’s 1/17 from 3 in recent games, but I’m not worried about that. We don’t need him to shoot. We can’t have him shooting 20% inside the arc like he did against Creighton though. No more layup woes. It’s tournament time