#1 WNBA Draft Pick: A'Ja or Gabby or Someone Else?

[GoCardinal]

We must be looking at different players because the Wilson I've seen is not afraid of physical contact or battling in the paint. She took 6+ FT/game last year and is shooting more than 10/game so far this year. She's aggressive and can dominate the glass. On multiple occasions last year she dominated Mississippi State's physical front line on both ends of the court.

Regardless though, they do not need a big bruising post like a Kalani Brown, they just need an inside presence who can disrupt opposing posts, battle on the glass and score. Wilson checks all of those boxes.

And the guards comment--Plum, Jefferson and McBride, who is actually a very solid passer as a 2 guard. A'ja will get a lot of touches and good looks next year with Plum/Jefferson and McBride on the perimeter. Laimbeer will definitely evaluate all of the top players, but I think just about everyone will be stunned if he opts for anyone other than Wilson.

Hmm, not sure how accurate that actually is. SA actually had a top 5 rebounding percentage last season, and also was a top 5 team when it came to grabbing offensive boards. They were top 4 in fewest total rebounds allowed and top 5 in fewest offensive rebounds allowed. They did commit the most turnovers, however. They also were the slowest team in the league when it came to pace, and had a horrible team defense. Where does that start? On the perimeter. They were also near the bottom bottom 3pt makes. Where else does that start? The perimeter.

Jefferson is by far the best defender on the team. She was the only player on the team that played significant minutes with a defensive rating under 100. Some size on the perimeter could be useful, considering how small all their point guards are. McBride also isn’t someone I’d consider a lockdown defender. They also are missing an adequate backup for her at the SG spot.

I’m not saying Wilson isn’t the top pick, but she surely isn’t the only player that would fill a huge need for what this team needs.

Plum should more than likely be moved for a player that fits better, they’d probably love to be able to get an additional first rounder out of her. They also have the #13 pick that could be used in a package to trade up. However, with no starting SF for the future, no adequate backup at SG, mediocre backup PGs, and a need for extra posts there are tons of obvious holes this team has. With a class this deep, quantity would have been key for them because you’d get quality players to fill all these holes. They’d be in a much better spot if they were in Chicago’s position with 2 lottery picks.

 

[MilfordHusky]

chj001, Seattle is desperate for a contributing center. Anybody that Seattle can move to obtain a center will be an improvement for that franchise. They should go after Kiah Stokes.

With Laimbeer leaving NY, Kiah may be available.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

A’ja Wilson will go #1 to Vegas. Period!


Now—after that it’s the best player or need. Gotta think Kelsey Mitchell & DD are in the hunt after that. Let’s not forget that 6-6 Mercedes Russell will likely be a first round pick and size and true post players are at premium.

What are Chicago’s needs??? Seattle needs post players and Russell is from Oregon.

Trader Bill could pull some trades to get what he wants behind Wilson. The 2018 draft will be deep with a lot of talent.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I'm assuming that Azura stays at UConn for another season. If so, Las Vegas will and should pick A'ja Wilson. She is what they need and by far the safest pick. I agree that she has an incomplete game, but she rebounds and defends well, plus she scores in close and gets to the FT line. She's rather left handed, but she is big, strong, and fairly mobile. She'll be an immediate starter and solid player. If she develops, she can certainly be an all-star.

Considering that Las Vegas has Moriah and Kelsey Plum, the worst pick for them would be Kelsey Mitchell. she would give them way too many small guards. But some team will like her.

Does anyone know how Diamond is doing this fall? She is the high risk candidate in the draft. She's as athletic as anyone, but she's not a proven winner or a smart, disciplined ball player.

I agree with the thought that Gabby is or could be the Kawhi Leonard of the draft. He had an incomplete offensive repertoire when drafted and is now both an offensive and defensive star. All UConn players work hard, but Gabby may work hardest. I'm not sure what her upside is--keep in mind that she lost most of 2 years in high school and played the front court at UConn. She could be a David Thompson type player in a few years.

If Kia doesn't go in the first round, the WNBA GMs are way dumber than I think. She is an elite defender and shooter, a smart and tough player, with Olympic and Final Four experience. She's very mature and big for a guard. At least one source at the UCLA game said the WNBA scouts were there to see 4 first-round picks in the 2018 draft: Canada, Billings, Gabby, and Kia.

 

[Carnac]

I think A'ja will be the #1 pick ,( unless there is some concern over her often injured ankles), based on size and talent.....Gabby has an outside chance at #1 based on athleticism , hustle , and potential.
Her mid-range jumper is not there yet , but is coming along. and she plays great defense. If a team feels they can develop her shot further she could be the #1 if a team doesn't want to risk taking A'ja because of potential ankle
problems.....Mitchell and Diamond pose the same problems in my opinion.....CAN THEY PLAY WITHOUT THE BALL? Neither is a true point guard but wants to dominate the ball. Both are talented but
the question is , can they play defense well enough and contribute to a team without dominating the ball.

If a team needs a Big it will take A'ja. If it needs a defensive stalwart at the 2, 3, or 4 , it will take Gabby. Or if you want scoring they could take DD or Mitchell.

Who knows.

You're right, it all depends on a team's needs. The Las Vegas (yet to announce their new team name) franchise has the first pick. I'm already on record saying that A'ja Wilson should be their first pick. They have needs top to bottom. They've finished with the worst league record the last two seasons. They have nowhere to go but up. They desperately need a post player. Wilson is the best post coming into the graft. New head coach "Trader Bill" Laimbeer wants to come in and turn their fortunes around immediately. Wilson can help them do that. You can be sure that Laimbeer will live up to his moniker, and do some wheeling and dealing before the start of the 2018 season. The current roster has already proven they're not competitive. I seriously doubt he'd be comfortable jumping into a foxhole with THAT group.

Here's what Michelle Smith has to say on the up coming 2018 WNBA draft: [LINK]

 

[Carnac]

I'm assuming that Azura stays at UConn for another season. If so, Las Vegas will and should pick A'ja Wilson. She is what they need and by far the safest pick. I agree that she has an incomplete game, but she rebounds and defends well, plus she scores in close and gets to the FT line. She's rather left handed, but she is big, strong, and fairly mobile. She'll be an immediate starter and solid player. If she develops, she can certainly be an all-star.

Considering that Las Vegas has Moriah and Kelsey Plum, the worst pick for them would be Kelsey Mitchell. she would give them way too many small guards. But some team will like her.

Does anyone know how Diamond is doing this fall? She is the high risk candidate in the draft. She's as athletic as anyone, but she's not a proven winner or a smart, disciplined ball player.

I agree with the thought that Gabby is or could be the Kawhi Leonard of the draft. He had an incomplete offensive repertoire when drafted and is now both an offensive and defensive star. All UConn players work hard, but Gabby may work hardest. I'm not sure what her upside is--keep in mind that she lost most of 2 years in high school and played the front court at UConn. She could be a David Thompson type player in a few years.

If Kia doesn't go in the first round, the WNBA GMs are way dumber than I think. She is an elite defender and shooter, a smart and tough player, with Olympic and Final Four experience. She's very mature and big for a guard. At least one source at the UCLA game said the WNBA scouts were there to see 4 first-round picks in the 2018 draft: Canada, Billings, Gabby, and Kia.

Canada, Billings, Gabby, and Kia along with Wilson should ALL be gone after the 6th pick. Having seen all four of them in person (Canada & Billings twice), I concur.

You said: "the worst pick for them would be Kelsey Mitchell. She would give them way too many small guards. But some team will like her". Had they not been sold, their old GM may have drafted her. They wasted their #1 pick last year on Plum, who they clearly did not need.

You also said: "Does anyone know how Diamond is doing this fall? She is the high risk candidate in the draft. She's as athletic as anyone, but she's not a proven winner or a smart, disciplined ball player". Maybe it's me, but right now, I don't see DeShields being a "good fit" for any team. She was a "ME" player instead of a "We" player. Unless she has made some adjustments to her personal outlook and her over all attitude since she's left college, I can't see her fitting in with any WNBA team. I hope she has. Her act did not go over well in college. She was not perceived by many as a "team player". No doubt there is a WNBA coach that figures he/she can work with her and turn her attitude and outlook around.

I would like to see Diamond in the W. I'm sure one of the coaches in the league can help her transition into becoming a productive professional athlete.

 

[wallman]

They and the NBA as well only 'go away from' the BIG as in slow and wide becuase they can find enough of those type players that are also supremely talented. The Lynx went running toward that exact kind of BIG in Sylvia Fowles and they have two championships to prove it was a good choice and loss a 5th game championship series at the buzzer in her three years. (Yes they have some OK other players, but ...)

Except BIG Syl is not wide and slow, she is the right height but very mobile.

 

[wallman]

Disagree with most of this. WNBA has always had a preference for big and mobile vs. big and slow and wide, this is not a new trend. Defensive bullying is the SEC way and Dawn has definitely not gone away from that. BTW neither has Mississippi State. Have loved Allisha Gray since she was at UNC but Allisha's motor definitely doesn't exceed A'ja Wilson's motor. Both Allisha Gray and Kaela Davis especially got their motor put into a higher gear when they arrived at SC. A'ja Wilson's most significant improvement in her time at SC was on the defensive side of the ball=SEC DPOY. Wilson has suited up for USA basketball for the past 3 summers, each time her height was listed at 6'5". A"ja is anything but a volume shooter she is shooting 55% for her career and shot 58% last year.

Have you watched some of Dawns old teams, the intensity is nowhere near the same, SEC bullying aside and sure they had to be that way as they were not as talented on the offensive end. Wilson will be guarded by more mobile, taller, stronger players in the WNBA. Gray had that motor, go back and watch her with UNC. Davis don't think she has a motor which is why she sat a lot in the WNBA as the season went on. Wilson is not 6' 5" IMO even Bill doesn't think she is tall enough for the position she is playing in college BUT then again a lot of players have to change to continue to play at the next level. I look at the work ethic of most Uconn players which is what is needed for the WNBA, all other players usually fall short in that area and have to learn or they don't play. The WNBA introduced the defensive paint rule which has caused problems for less mobile BIGS as they cannot plant themselves in the key, this has had an affect on how the game is played. The volume shooter comment was not in reference to Wilson.

All that being said, I don't think it has anything to do with whether she will go #1 or not. The #s don't really matter as it comes down to need of the team and whether the player can adjust.

 

[CocoHusky]

Have you watched some of Dawns old teams, the intensity is nowhere near the same, SEC bullying aside and sure they had to be that way as they were not as talented on the offensive end. Wilson will be guarded by more mobile, taller, stronger players in the WNBA. Gray had that motor, go back and watch her with UNC. Davis don't think she has a motor which is why she sat a lot in the WNBA as the season went on. Wilson is not 6' 5" IMO even Bill doesn't think she is tall enough for the position she is playing in college BUT then again a lot of players have to change to continue to play at the next level. I look at the work ethic of most Uconn players which is what is needed for the WNBA, all other players usually fall short in that area and have to learn or they don't play. The WNBA introduced the defensive paint rule which has caused problems for less mobile BIGS as they cannot plant themselves in the key, this has had an affect on how the game is played. The volume shooter comment was not in reference to Wilson.

All that being said, I don't think it has anything to do with whether she will go #1 or not. The #s don't really matter as it comes down to need of the team and whether the player can adjust.

I have watched ALL of Dawn's teams very closely going back to her days a Temple and know enough to write up everyone of her defense schemes. You keep saying Wilson is not 6'5" with no proof and you are mis chacacterizing what Lamebeer said. What he said was that he doesn't envision A'ja as a center. Gray did not have that motor at UNC she mostly differed to Diamond , X and Mavunga. Gray also played a year at UNC without diamond and she did not lead that team in shot attemps either, Mavunga did.
The WNBA defensive paint rule was introduced in 2012 that is a half a decade ago, nothing recent. A'ja will be plenty mobile for the WNBA.

 

[GoCardinal]

I have watched ALL of Dawn's teams very closely going back to her days a Temple and know enough to write up everyone of her defense schemes. You keep saying Wilson is not 6'5" with no proof and you are mis chacacterizing what Lamebeer said. What he said was that he doesn't envision A'ja as a center. Gray did not have that motor at UNC she mostly differed to Diamond , X and Mavunga. Gray also played a year at UNC without diamond and she did not lead that team in shot attemps either, Mavunga did.
The WNBA defensive paint rule was introduced in 2012 that is a half a decade ago, nothing recent. A'ja will be plenty mobile for the WNBA.

Gray has always played with heart, hustle and energy, even during her time at UNC. Leading your team in field goal attempts does not mean you have a good motor imo. Having a good motor to me means a player gives 100% every possession and is always active. Kelly Faris is a UConn example that had a great motor, Gabby is a more recent example. Gray has always been that type.

 

[Shades]

 

[CocoHusky]

Gray has always played with heart, hustle and energy, even during her time at UNC. Leading your team in field goal attempts does not mean you have a good motor imo. Having a good motor to me means a player gives 100% every possession and is always active. Kelly Faris is a UConn example that had a great motor, Gabby is a more recent example. Gray has always been that type.

I think you missed the point. She was the best shooter on the UNC team as a Freshmen yet differer to Diamond. With Diamond out of the way the following year "agressive and high motor " would have meant becoming the new Alpha instead she differed to yet another classmate with less ability. Maybe it's her personality but high motor to me says get out front and drag people with you-see Gabby williams picture if further clarification is required. BTW she was very satisfied to difer at SC also and did not hit her stride in the line up until Dawn stumbled onto using her as a stretch 4.

 

[bballnut90]

Canada, Billings, Gabby, and Kia along with Wilson should ALL be gone after the 6th pick. Having seen all four of them in person (Canada & Billings twice), I concur.

You said: "the worst pick for them would be Kelsey Mitchell. She would give them way too many small guards. But some team will like her". Had they not been sold, their old GM may have drafted her. They wasted their #1 pick last year on Plum, who they clearly did not need.

You also said: "Does anyone know how Diamond is doing this fall? She is the high risk candidate in the draft. She's as athletic as anyone, but she's not a proven winner or a smart, disciplined ball player". Maybe it's me, but right now, I don't see DeShields being a "good fit" for any team. Unless she has made some adjustments to her personal outlook and her over all attitude since she's left college, I can't see her fitting in with any WNBA team. I hope she has. Her act did not go over well in college. She was not perceived by many as a "team player".

I would like to see Diamond in the W. I'm sure one of the coaches in the league can help her transition into becoming a productive professional athlete.

Mitchell and Deshields are both top 6 players. I wouldn’t count out 1-2 of Nared, Russell or Brown in the top 6 either. I wouldn’t pick Deshields over Gabby or some others, but she could actually be a good fit for Indiana at 2 given their need for star power. Outside of Wilson, Deshields is the best “go to” prospect when you look at her frame, athleticism and ability to create her own shot. Her game is best suited for the pros if she improves shot selection and improves her shooting. That said, I think Indiana is foolish if they take her over Williams or Mitchell....there are just a lot of red flags with Diamond.

Nurse is a good player but I don’t think she’s a top 6 pick. She is not a playmaker nor has she shown she can create her own shot. She can hit open shots in UCONN’s offense where she’s the 4th or 5th option, but she takes a long time to release and the vast majority of her points are on layups or standstill open jump shots. She’s a similar prospect to Kelly Faris IMO, although I think she’ll have a longer career than Kelly did. For a top 5-6 guard pick, I’d want the player to have proven she can facilitate for others or create her own shot. I think she’ll be a better pro than Faris was, but if I’m a GM I wouldn’t take her with a top 6 pick.

 

[Carnac]

Mitchell and Deshields are both top 6 players. I wouldn’t count out 1-2 of Nared, Russell or Brown in the top 6 either. I wouldn’t pick Deshields over Gabby or some others, but she could actually be a good fit for Indiana at 2 given their need for star power. Outside of Wilson, Deshields is the best “go to” prospect when you look at her frame, athleticism and ability to create her own shot. Her game is best suited for the pros if she improves shot selection and improves her shooting. That said, I think Indiana is foolish if they take her over Williams or Mitchell....there are just a lot of red flags with Diamond.

Nurse is a good player but I don’t think she’s a top 6 pick. She is not a playmaker nor has she shown she can create her own shot. She can hit open shots in UCONN’s offense where she’s the 4th or 5th option, but she takes a long time to release and the vast majority of her points are on layups or standstill open jump shots. She’s a similar prospect to Kelly Faris IMO, although I think she’ll have a longer career than Kelly did. For a top 5-6 guard pick, I’d want the player to have proven she can facilitate for others or create her own shot. I think she’ll be a better pro than Faris was, but if I’m a GM I wouldn’t take her with a top 6 pick.

Is the Brown you're referring to Kalaini Brown (Baylor)? She's listed as a junior. If SHE is the Brown you're referring to, is she eligible for the draft? Upon further review, you may be right about Kia. There may be some GM's that would take Mitchell (even though she does not play defense), DeShields or maybe even Nared over her. 6-3 post Stephanie Mavunga (Ohio State) may be a top 8 draftee too. I'm confident Nurse will go in the first round. I figured Kalaini brown to go top 5 in the 2019 draft.

 

[bballnut90]

Is the Brown you're referring to Kalaini Brown (Baylor)? She's listed as a junior. If SHE is the Brown you're referring to, is she eligible for the draft? Upon further review, you may be right about Kia. There may be some GM's that would take Mitchell (even though she does not play defense), DeShields or maybe even Nared over her. I'm confident Nurse will go in the first round. I figured Kalaini brown to go top 5 in the 2019 draft.

Lexi Brown of Duke. Nurse should go first round but I’d expect her to be picked in the 9-12 range where it’s more of a crapshoot if the player will make it in the pros or not.

 

[Carnac]

Lexi Brown of Duke. Nurse should go first round but I’d expect her to be picked in the 9-12 range where it’s more of a crapshoot if the player will make it in the pros or not.

Right!! All-American Nina Davis (Baylor) did not make a WNBA roster last year. So, you never never tell who is a shoe-in, and who's not.

 

[CocoHusky]

Nurse is a good player but I don’t think she’s a top 6 pick. She is not a playmaker nor has she shown she can create her own shot. She can hit open shots in UCONN’s offense where she’s the 4th or 5th option, but she takes a long time to release and the vast majority of her points are on layups or standstill open jump shots. She’s a similar prospect to Kelly Faris IMO, although I think she’ll have a longer career than Kelly did. For a top 5-6 guard pick, I’d want the player to have proven she can facilitate for others or create her own shot. I think she’ll be a better pro than Faris was, but if I’m a GM I wouldn’t take her with a top 6 pick.

Disagree with your assessment of Nurse. First of all this is the WNBA we are talking about and size matters. Neither Canada nor Brown is going in to run an WNBA team at the PG position. Kelsey Plum, Lindsey Allen, Alexis Jones all similar players to Canada & Brown in last year's draft with barely an impact in the W. Kia on the other hand could be the ultimate complimentary players, she can hit open shots from distance, she can defend with size and she can handle the ball as a secondary ball handler. The W is also full of complex offenses and international players which gives Kia an additional leg up. Lastly, it is a lot easier for WNBA team to market an Olympian and (2-3) time NCAA champion. Canada and Brown look the part of very good NCAA PG. WNBA points guards look like Lindsay Whalen, Chelsea Gray, and Kia Nurse.

 

[bballnut90]

Disagree with your assessment of Nurse. First of all this is the WNBA we are talking about and size matters. Neither Canada nor Brown is going in to run an WNBA team at the PG position. Kelsey Plum, Lindsey Allen, Alexis Jones all similar players to Canada & Brown in last year's draft with barely an impact in the W. Kia on the other hand could be the ultimate complimentary players, she can hit open shots from distance, she can defend with size and she can handle the ball as a secondary ball handler. The W is also full of complex offenses and international players which gives Kia an additional leg up. Lastly, it is a lot easier for WNBA team to market an Olympian and (2-3) time NCAA champion. Canada and Brown look the part of very good NCAA PG. WNBA points guards look like Lindsay Whalen, Chelsea Gray, and Kia Nurse.

Your last statement is inaccurate--Chelsea Gray is a bit of an anomaly in regards to big PGs in the W. If you look at the assist league leaders who happen to be PGs, you have:
Vandersloot at 5-8
Clarendon at 5-9
January at 5-8
Diggins at 5-9
Thomas at 5-9
Bird at 5-9

Canada is a bit undersized at 5-6 and Brown is 5-9. Both need to add strength to be solid pros, but more importantly both are good facilitators and can create their own shot which are skills needed to find success as a PG in the W. Kia Nurse at 6-0 isn't going to be running a team as a PG. She isn't a facilitator like the players above, nor does she create her own shot. I agree that she can be a very good complimentary player because of the skills you mentioned above (defense, hustle plays, hitting open shots, ball handling), but GMs aren't going to take a complimentary player with a top 6 pick.

 

[JoePgh]

Your last statement is inaccurate--Chelsea Gray is a bit of an anomaly in regards to big PGs in the W. If you look at the assist league leaders who happen to be PGs, you have:
Vandersloot at 5-8
Clarendon at 5-9
January at 5-8
Diggins at 5-9
Thomas at 5-9
Bird at 5-9

Canada is a bit undersized at 5-6 and Brown is 5-9. Both need to add strength to be solid pros, but more importantly both are good facilitators and can create their own shot which are skills needed to find success as a PG in the W. Kia Nurse at 6-0 isn't going to be running a team as a PG. She isn't a facilitator like the players above, nor does she create her own shot. I agree that she can be a very good complimentary player because of the skills you mentioned above (defense, hustle plays, hitting open shots, ball handling), but GMs aren't going to take a complimentary player with a top 6 pick.

Speaking of small but effective WNBA point guards, let’s not forget about the Connecticut Sun’s own Courtney Williams, late of South Florida. And then there’s that seemingly forgotten PG whose name begins with “Mo”.

 

[YellwJcket999]

So.... Does Vegas really need Wilson? (I'm just being a contrarian) They have 6'4 Kayla Alexander, 6'3, Isabelle Harrison and 6'3 and 6'3 Dearica Hamby.
How much better is Wilson than Harrison? @Shades @bballnut90 ?

 

[nwhoopfan]

Kinda strange to write off several players after their rookie year in the WNBA. Among the PGs listed in this thread, Vandersloot took several years to adjust to the pro game and is now one of the best at her position. And the size thing is silly. Bballnut90 blew that completely out of the water w/ an assist by JoePgh.

 

[bballnut90]

So.... Does Vegas really need Wilson? (I'm just being a contrarian) They have 6'4 Kayla Alexander, 6'3, Isabelle Harrison and 6'3 and 6'3 Dearica Hamby.
How much better is Wilson than Harrison? @Shades @bballnut90 ?

Wilson is significantly better than any of the players listed above. To compete in the west you need to have a post player with size and scoring ability. Wilson gives San Antonio that presence inside. If there was a Breanna Stewart or EDD or Maya on the table, they’d be an obvious pick over Wilson, but compared to the rest of the 2018 prospects, Wilson is the clear standout.

 

[Kaizen]

At this point , Kia

 

[CocoHusky]

So.... Does Vegas really need Wilson? (I'm just being a contrarian) They have 6'4 Kayla Alexander, 6'3, Isabelle Harrison and 6'3 and 6'3 Dearica Hamby.
How much better is Wilson than Harrison? @Shades @bballnut90 ?

Much better.

 

[Orangutan]

So.... Does Vegas really need Wilson? (I'm just being a contrarian) They have 6'4 Kayla Alexander, 6'3, Isabelle Harrison and 6'3 and 6'3 Dearica Hamby.
How much better is Wilson than Harrison? @Shades @bballnut90 ?

The Stars have needed a top tier post presence for YEARS (at least the last 4 or so).

Harrison is ok. Wilson promises to be muuch better just as Wilson is a much better college player than Harrison ever was.

If those players were good enough the Stars would not have this pick.