1/12: NET 25, KenPom: 25

[BFieldHusky]

NET: 25
KenPom: 25
BPI: 12

I know people are upset at DeCoursey and Lunardi, but right now our metrics are in the 5 seed range. The good news? A lof of the teams in front of us are going to beat each other up in the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12. Keep winning, and our numbers will improve. We have 6 games left against good teams in Marquette/St. John's/Creighton.

Offense is 5 in KenPom, defense is 112. Was 134 to begin the week. 7-4 in Q1/Q2 games.

Notable teams:

Gonzaga: NET:11/KenPom: 9/BPI: 9
Baylor: NET: 19/KenPom: 18/BPI: 11
Texas: NET: 40/KenPom: 39/BPI: 23

Rest of the Big East:

NET:

12. Marquette
25. UConn
28. St. John's
50. Villanova
54. Creighton
62. Xavier
70. Georgetown
83. Providence
88. Butler
131. DePaul
180. Seton Hall

KenPom:

11. Marquette
19. St. John's
25. UConn
44. Creighton
46. Villanova
54. Xavier
63. Georgetown
84. Providence
86. Butler
125. DePaul
151. Seton Hall

BPI:

12. Uconn
14. Marquette
24. St. John's
31. Creighton
39. Villanova
51. Xavier
71. Butler
72. Providence
73. Georgetown
109. DePaul
114. Seton Hall

 

[UCLJ0211]

BPI seems more realistic where we are. I feel like we should be a solid 3 seed at the moment. I don’t think there’s more than 8-12 teams better than us right now.

 

[Brochacho]

I think the frustrating thing is over the last three games we could have done so much more to improve those metrics:

Providence, up 77-65 with 1:46 to go, win by 3
Villanova, blew it at the end
Georgetown, up 23 with 6:55 to go, win by 8

Should be much higher in the rankings. With McNeeley out my mindset is just to win games but we haven't done ourselves any favors for March these past few games.

 

[Waquoit]

 

[aburks41]

I think the frustrating thing is over the last three games we could have done so much more to improve those metrics:

Providence, up 77-65 with 1:46 to go, win by 3
Villanova, blew it at the end
Georgetown, up 23 with 6:55 to go, win by 8

Should be much higher in the rankings. With McNeeley out my mindset is just to win games but we haven't done ourselves any favors for March these past few games.

The “kill the clock” offense is so painful to watch and tbh I don’t really understand why we do it. Our normal offense takes 20-25 seconds to run anyways. What is the benefit of just dribbling around for 25 seconds and then heaving up a terrible shot? Sure it bleeds the clock the same way our normal offense does, but it kills the spreadsheet math which does make a difference when you are on the edge of a seed line in the NCAAT.

We scored 4 points in the final 8 minutes yesterday. We made a 25 point blowout look like a close game because we just decided to dribble around and get 3 shot clock violations in a row.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think the frustrating thing is over the last three games we could have done so much more to improve those metrics:

Providence, up 77-65 with 1:46 to go, win by 3
Villanova, blew it at the end
Georgetown, up 23 with 6:55 to go, win by 8

Should be much higher in the rankings. With McNeeley out my mindset is just to win games but we haven't done ourselves any favors for March these past few games.

In the post-RPI world, style points matter.

 

[auror]

 

[jibsey]

There’s no consideration of us missing one our 2 best players? Fine. This is why I don’t follow this crap even when we were number 2.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

NET: 25
KenPom: 25
BPI: 12

I know people are upset at DeCoursey and Lunardi, but right now our metrics are in the 5 seed range.

I personally would have no problem if we are a five seed in this year's tournament as we still have that open on our bingo card:

One Seed - 1999; 2024
Two Seed - 2004
Three Seed - 2011
Four Seed - 2023
Seven Seed - 2014

We still need five, seven and eight.

Give us a five seed and let the four seed and one seed in our bracket soil their pants on selection Sunday.

 

[Waquoit]

In the post-RPI world, style points matter.

I agree. For most teams. But we're UConn, dammit. We laugh, a hearty laugh, at things like seedings.

 

[businesslawyer]

I think the frustrating thing is over the last three games we could have done so much more to improve those metrics:

Providence, up 77-65 with 1:46 to go, win by 3
Villanova, blew it at the end
Georgetown, up 23 with 6:55 to go, win by 8

Should be much higher in the rankings. With McNeeley out my mindset is just to win games but we haven't done ourselves any favors for March these past few games.

This is why metrics are only so valuable. No team should be punished, and betters only care about whether you cover rather than whether you win, based on whether you stop playing hard once the game is virtually over. We’ve seen the last two years Hurley teams are willing to stop playing hard, and let leads slip, after the game is won. Not worth getting upset about. The Committee will either figure it out or they won’t.

 

[GAlawyer]

Based on their body of work to date these rankings are reasonable.

But do I think there are one of 8 to 10 teams with legit chance to win it all? Yes. Just about all of the problems we see - and there are a few - are fixable. Biggest question is can they defend and rebound at a championship level when it counts, and I think the parts are there to make it happen. Just less of a margin for error than in the past 2 years.

 

[ctchamps]

I personally would have no problem if we are a five seed in this year's tournament as we still have that open on our bingo card:

One Seed - 1999; 2024
Two Seed - 2004
Three Seed - 2011
Four Seed - 2023
Seven Seed - 2014

We still need five, seven and eight.

Give us a five seed and let the four seed and one seed in our bracket soil their pants on selection Sunday.

Five, six, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, sixteen, and play in game.

 

[CT2SC]

BPI seems more realistic where we are. I feel like we should be a solid 3 seed at the moment. I don’t think there’s more than 8-12 teams better than us right now.

We have 4 losses and a bunch of close wins against mid Big East teams. I would agree we’ll be one of the best 8-12 by the end of the year when we get Liam back, but right now without him and with our current resume I think 20-25 is more accurate.

 

[RuffRuff]

I personally would have no problem if we are a five seed in this year's tournament as we still have that open on our bingo card:

One Seed - 1999; 2024
Two Seed - 2004
Three Seed - 2011
Four Seed - 2023
Seven Seed - 2014

We still need five, seven and eight.

Give us a five seed and let the four seed and one seed in our bracket soil their pants on selection Sunday.

There’s no consideration of us missing one our 2 best players? Fine. This is why I don’t follow this crap even when we were number 2.

I think we’ll be forgiven if we can start humming with Liam back and win a few of those key games against the top half of the BE, particularly on the road. The good news is we can likely work our way back up, with the goal being a 3 seed in the East. It starts with Creighton next game. The Marquette matchups will obviously have significant bearing.

What we should hope for is the Auburns and Iowa Sts (and all 1/2 seed candidates) to keep beating teams we will be battling the 3 seed with. Let them have their 1s and 2s as we aren’t getting that high anyway. For instance the Texas Tech loss to ISU yesterday likely helped our cause. I’d be all for taking on a 2 seed Kansas in Newark in the S16.

 

[Hurleyman216]

We have one of the top few offenses in the country and our defense is improving week by week. There was a significant improvement in our defense this week and it will keep getting better. I expect us to be one of about 10 teams who have a shot to win it all.

 

[Pmurph678]

25th is about right, our defense is brutal.

Feels like yesterday we were down 14 to Providence at home and they were scoring every possession.

 

[uh-no]

We have one of the top few offenses in the country and our defense is improving week by week. There was a significant improvement in our defense this week and it will keep getting better. I expect us to be one of about 10 teams who have a shot to win it all.

one game does not a "defense is improviing week-by-week" make.

Until the georgetown game, the defense was in a freefall since the start of the league season....going from 90's to 140's. ranked.

 

[storrsroars]

Texas Tech caught a break with St. Joe's moving into top 100 NET, making a Q3 loss only a Q2.

 

[willie99]

5 seed is cool, love to watch the 4 seed and the 1 seed in our bracket crying when the brackets are released and then again after we send them home

Then watch the college bureaucrats tell us about "the body of work", because they can't talk about talent. And they have no idea what the eye test even means.

 

[Stinger92860]

one game does not a "defense is improviing week-by-week" make.

Until the georgetown game, the defense was in a freefall since the start of the league season....going from 90's to 140's. ranked.

You can see the improvement, but we are no where near the last 2 years. This is why end of games is important IMO. But Dan Hurley knows what he is doing.

 

[Old blue]

Who cares about metrics. We' re ranked 9th!!! Should be a 3 seed at worst, even if we slide a spot tomorrow. Rankings mean nothing now! Ridiculous!

 

[Old blue]

And also Gonzaga is 9th in kenpom, which further illegitamizes metrics.

 

[Hurleyman216]

one game does not a "defense is improviing week-by-week" make.

Until the georgetown game, the defense was in a freefall since the start of the league season....going from 90's to 140's. ranked.

If you don’t think the defense is improving you must not be watching the games. If other teams didn’t shoot 15-20 more free throws a game than us our KenPom defensive numbers would likely be in the 50’s or 60’s. Our defense in Maui was awful, our defense last week was dramatically improved. Ball and Mahaney specifically have improved in this area. Stewart held arguably the best offensive player in the country to 6-20 from the floor and gave us a chance for a good road win. Maybe you can’t see it coming together, but I certainly can

 

[ToolzieFan]

If you don’t think the defense is improving you must not be watching the games. If other teams didn’t shoot 15-20 more free throws a game than us our KenPom defensive numbers would likely be in the 50’s or 60’s. Our defense in Maui was awful, our defense last week was dramatically improved. Ball and Mahaney specifically have improved in this area. Stewart held arguably the best offensive player in the country to 6-20 from the floor and gave us a chance for a good road win. Maybe you can’t see it coming together, but I certainly can

I guess I’d argue that fouling too much is major defensive flaw, and a problem we cannot dismiss so easily. Our defensive free throw rate, which is free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts, is 42.9%. That’s #341 in the country, and the worst among all high majors. Hurley’s teams have historically fouled a lot, but last year’s 31.1% rate was much better. We’re elite at defending against two-point attempts (11th nationally), blocking shots (4th), preventing three-point attempts (7th), and decent at keeping teams off the offensive glass (53rd). Teams are shooting 38.4% from three against us (354th ). There’s a lot of evidence that opponents’ three-point percentage is more luck that skill. If we get that inevitable regression, we just need to foul less to have a defense good enough to go on a run. Our offense is, and will continue to be, awesome.

 

[uconngb]

Who cares about metrics. We' re ranked 9th!!! Should be a 3 seed at worst, even if we slide a spot tomorrow. Rankings mean nothing now! Ridiculous!

Did you just say rankings mean nothing after noting that we are ranked 9th??

RANKINGS mean nothing, unfortunately metrics do. That’s a fact as has been pointed out ad nauseum on this board.

 

[Husky68]

In last 20 years the worst KP by a NCAA champ has been on O a UConn team and on D another UConn team. UConn don't need no KP.

 

[uh-no]

I guess I’d argue that fouling too much is major defensive flaw, and a problem we cannot dismiss so easily. Our defensive free throw rate, which is free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts, is 42.9%. That’s #341 in the country, and the worst among all high majors. Hurley’s teams have historically fouled a lot, but last year’s 31.1% rate was much better. We’re elite at defending against two-point attempts (11th nationally), blocking shots (4th), preventing three-point attempts (7th), and decent at keeping teams off the offensive glass (53rd). Teams are shooting 38.4% from three against us (354th ). There’s a lot of evidence that opponents’ three-point percentage is more luck that skill. If we get that inevitable regression, we just need to foul less to have a defense good enough to go on a run. Our offense is, and will continue to be, awesome.

Exactly. Jonathan ain't committing those fouls. The crux we're at is...to more closely guard the three, we leave less room for error on the drive, and end up fouling. We're a step or a couple inches of wingspan short on one side or the other....a result of players who are, IMO, near the limit of their current ability. high effort on the floor, but solo/diarra/johnson on the limit of their ability to execute.

 

[uh-no]

In last 20 years the worst KP by a NCAA champ has been on O a UConn team and on D another UConn team. UConn don't need no KP.

Even if it were true (which it's tenuous to begin with since raw comparisons across years don't really work given how the system calibrates within a year, not across them), This team is nearly 8 points a game WORSE on average than that 2011 team. Spotting an extra 8 points, that uconn team would have lost 5 of those 11 straight...losing in the BE quarters and the elite 8.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled if we were playing for a F4....but pretending like overcoming the #15 D in the land is equivalent to overcoming the #115 D in the land is a bit silly.

 

[navery12]

Even if it were true (which it's tenuous to begin with since raw comparisons across years don't really work given how the system calibrates within a year, not across them), This team is nearly 8 points a game WORSE on average than that 2011 team. Spotting an extra 8 points, that uconn team would have lost 5 of those 11 straight...losing in the BE quarters and the elite 8.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled if we were playing for a F4....but pretending like overcoming the #15 D in the land is equivalent to overcoming the #115 D in the land is a bit silly.

But this team is also 8 points better on offense than the 2011 team, and it turns out that's also a factor in winning basketball games