WVU's Gee: going to 12 is most likely

[Ldandy]

I don't have LHN on my subscription and I get just about every single sports network imaginable. That's not to say it isn't on somewhere here in the northeast. But I doubt I'm the only one who doesn't get it on our package. And honestly, even if I did get it, I would NEVER watch it...unless UConn was playing Texas. If they become conference mates, maybe I would watch it.

I live in PA and have the top tier of XFinity. I have no clue if I have The LHN or not. I've never had any desire to look for it.

 

[CallMeBruce]

A little unclear how texas can be made whole if the things is bleeding money. I guess the added volume of games would subsidize it.

The LHN is bleeding money because there is no content worth watching on it. There would be content on a B12 network.

 

[JSM1970]

I thought it was close to break even now and possibly could be in the black ongoing. The startup costs were large and funded a lot by ESPN

The LHN is bleeding money because there is no content worth watching on it. There would be content on a B12 network.

 

[husky210]

IF I remember correctly: the LHN originally was going to fill content by broadcasting Texas high school sports. When this came to light everyone cried foul and the LHN could not broadcast that content.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

I may have watched a UConn women's game on LHN once. That's about it. I do get it on the basic package from Frontier U-Verse, formerly ATT.

 

[CL82]

As I've made clear, I don't believe any of this crap at this point. But it would be rational for Texas to agree to roll the LHN into a Big XII Network if they are guarantied their current take for the length of the existing LHN arrangement.

But would it be logical for ESPN to make that guarantee? I'm sure the other schools would expect at least some money to come there way as well. Does ESPN value the Big 12 enough to add to it's investment or does Big 12 instability increase the value and stability of ESPN's house band the ACC? I think that's another potential stumbling block.

 

[Carl Spackler]

But would it be logical for ESPN to make that guarantee? I'm sure the other schools would expect at least some money to come there way as well. Does ESPN value the Big 12 enough to add to it's investment or does Big 12 instability increase the value and stability of ESPN's house band the ACC? I think that's another potential stumbling block.

A quick google search tells me that ESPN/ABC are splitting football content with Fox, but ESPN owns all of big 12 basketball, including the conference tournament.

Adding UCONN basketball women's and men's to the picture has got to be meaningful, as well as introducing big 12 football regularly at least 6 times a year into the hartford/new haven and NYC demographic.

 

[businesslawyer]

But would it be logical for ESPN to make that guarantee? I'm sure the other schools would expect at least some money to come there way as well. Does ESPN value the Big 12 enough to add to it's investment or does Big 12 instability increase the value and stability of ESPN's house band the ACC? I think that's another potential stumbling block.

You misunderstood. The other Big XII members would have to let Texas have its guarantied take first, before they split money. and the answer to "would they" is it's not costing them anything up front, it's temporary and without it there is no Big XII long term.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

LOL, was going to post the same thing. Please let it be us, please let it be us, please just this one time, let it be us.

Anybody remember gym class from elementary school when teams were picked...

 

[Carl Spackler]

You misunderstood. The other Big XII members would have to let Texas have its guarantied take first, before they split money. and the answer to "would they" is it's not costing them anything up front, it's temporary and without it there is no Big XII long term.

I see three pieces here, in Texas - ESPN - and the Big 12 conference offices. There is a fourth - in Fox television, but not so much involved.

I see no reason that Texas, currently, is anything but in a position of great strength right now in any negotiation. Not a good position for anybody that wants change. They've got the contract with ESPN. ESPN would gladly negotiate the terms of the LHN contract, I think, but that doesn't mean much - if Texas doesn't want to talk. As for the Big 12 conference offices - they're obviously the piece of the puzzle that can change how Texas feels about talking. That doesn't mean they'll change the position of Texas being in the position of strength in a negotiation, unless they manage to do something, to both motivate Texas to sit down at a table, and put them in position of less strength than they're in now.

The only thing that I think can be done, toboth put Texas into a chair at a negotiation, and into a weak position, is for the other 9 members of the conference to essentially put them on a notice that they're going to get booted from the conference, if the $ numbers are right, such that the conference can continue making what it makes now, with other membership other than Texas - or make more - for it's membership through a conference network and broadcasting deal.

ESPN - I'm sure would have input into how that would work - as well as Fox, and CBS, etc.

 

[CallMeBruce]

There is a 0% chance that the Big 12 expels Texas. That doesn't even pass the smell test.

 

[businesslawyer]

I see three pieces here, in Texas - ESPN - and the Big 12 conference offices. There is a fourth - in Fox television, but not so much involved.

I see no reason that Texas, currently, is anything but in a position of great strength right now in any negotiation. Not a good position for anybody that wants change. They've got the contract with ESPN. ESPN would gladly negotiate the terms of the LHN contract, I think, but that doesn't mean much - if Texas doesn't want to talk. As for the Big 12 conference offices - they're obviously the piece of the puzzle that can change how Texas feels about talking. That doesn't mean they'll change the position of Texas being in the position of strength in a negotiation, unless they manage to do something, to both motivate Texas to sit down at a table, and put them in position of less strength than they're in now.

The only thing that I think can be done, toboth put Texas into a chair at a negotiation, and into a weak position, is for the other 9 members of the conference to essentially put them on a notice that they're going to get booted from the conference, if the $ numbers are right, such that the conference can continue making what it makes now, with other membership other than Texas - or make more - for it's membership through a conference network and broadcasting deal.

ESPN - I'm sure would have input into how that would work - as well as Fox, and CBS, etc.

Texas isn't being booted from their conference. Come on.

I have seen customers kill off their suppliers because they demand too many concessions, the suppliers fail and the customer is then screwed. Texas's incentive to do something is that if they do nothing and push OU out, they are guaranteeing that the Big XII will not be at the grown ups table for long. And if Texas wants to stay in the Big XII, they will have to take less than they could negotiate for to make that happen.

 

[mavblues]

You misunderstood. The other Big XII members would have to let Texas have its guarantied take first, before they split money. and the answer to "would they" is it's not costing them anything up front, it's temporary and without it there is no Big XII long term.

Why BEFORE they split the money? You split the money, guaranteeing Texas a certain minimum (to match what they would have made under LHN).

Below examples assume $100MM for B12N:

Ex 1: (your way)
$100MM - $15MM = $85MM / 12 = $7.08MM each, with Texas getting $22.08MM

Ex 2: (how they will likely do it)

$100MM / 12 = $8.33MM each; however, Texas is guaranteed $15MM, so $15MM - 8.33MM = $6.67MM / 11 members = $606K subsidy (each) to Texas.

Thus, Texas gets their $15MM, each other school gets $8.33MM - $606K = $7.72MM

The Texas guarantee will likely have a sunset provision, and there would be no subsidy once/if B12N hits $180MM (since each school would then be getting $15MM).

In exchange for taking a relatively small haircut (likely only for a certain period of time), you eliminate the LHN, create a B12N, and expand the conference's footprint. Everybody comes out ahead of where they are now, and Texas preserves it's current revenue stream - at least for a certain period of time.

 

[FDNY99]

I don't have LHN on my subscription and I get just about every single sports network imaginable. That's not to say it isn't on somewhere here in the northeast. But I doubt I'm the only one who doesn't get it on our package. And honestly, even if I did get it, I would NEVER watch it...unless UConn was playing Texas. If they become conference mates, maybe I would watch it.

It's available on Fios in Westchester (and I'm assuming Fairfield County too if Fios is available) with the On-Demand feature.

 

[businesslawyer]

Why BEFORE they split the money? You split the money, guaranteeing Texas a certain minimum (to match what they would have made under LHN).

Below examples assume $100MM for B12N:

Ex 1: (your way)
$100MM - $15MM = $85MM / 12 = $7.08MM each, with Texas getting $22.08MM

Ex 2: (how they will likely do it)

$100MM / 12 = $8.33MM each; however, Texas is guaranteed $15MM, so $15MM - 8.33MM = $6.67MM / 11 members = $606K subsidy (each) to Texas.

Thus, Texas gets their $15MM, each other school gets $8.33MM - $606K = $7.72MM

The Texas guarantee will likely have a sunset provision, and there would be no subsidy once/if B12N hits $180MM (since each school would then be getting $15MM).

In exchange for taking a relatively small haircut (likely only for a certain period of time), you eliminate the LHN, create a B12N, and expand the conference's footprint. Everybody comes out ahead of where they are now, and Texas preserves it's current revenue stream - at least for a certain period of time.

LOL. You parsed my words far more closely than they were written for.

frankly, if they try to strike a deal it's likely to be something in between your two scenarios.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Texas isn't being booted from their conference. Come on.

I have seen customers kill off their suppliers because they demand too many concessions, the suppliers fail and the customer is then screwed. Texas's incentive to do something is that if they do nothing and push OU out, they are guaranteeing that the Big XII will not be at the grown ups table for long. And if Texas wants to stay in the Big XII, they will have to take less than they could negotiate for to make that happen.

So unwilling to accept what on face value may be so ridiculous as usual. All of this is hypothetical BS, and my opinion on potential things happening - is accurate - doesn't mean it couldn't or wouldn't happen.

Where is OU going to go? Texas has no incentive to do anything - based on your idea, until OU has a viable option to do something else. THe only thing OU can control, is what they can control from within their own conference. If OU has figured out how to move into another conference, without being asked to move into that conference - we at UCONN, need to copy that immediately. If OU moves into another ocnfernece? What happens to Texas, will only be a small part of a major issue nationally again. That - my lawyer friend - is not happening.

THe reality is that Texas not only doesn't have to sit down an talk about anything with anyone, even if they did - they will be in a very strong position of negotiation. Not good for anyone else. You yourself have noted this. Only way Texas would agree to any change or modification tot eh Big 12 confrerence itself, (which would mean a big 12 conference television network deal) , is if their current take doesn't change. THey already have managed to reach a situation where nothing needs to change regarding a conference championship game.

How does that change? Simple Texas gets faced with the real possibility of life as an independent as a full athletic department. THe scheduling issues that Texas would immediately face, don't you think that such a situation would immediately at bare minimum level the playing field for ESPN to start talking about either voiding the LHN contract entirely, or seriously renegotiating?



I was pretty clear - that it would be in the big 12 conference 9 other current members to have a plan already in place, to move forward at least at the same revenue scale without Texas, that they have now - with Texas.

That's what seems unrealistic, but how do you know if that's possible - if they don't explore it and figure that out?

 

[Carl Spackler]

LOL. You parsed my words far more closely than they were written for.

frankly, if they try to strike a deal it's likely to be something in between your two scenarios.

There is absolutely no reason to think anything is going to change with the Big 12 conference, at any time - until Texas feels like they need to sit down at a negotiation table.

They already got through a vote about the 10 membership - conference championship issue. The other members can pitch whatever they want, and it can make the most rational sense in the world, and Texas - still would have no reason to sit down and talk.

Any expansion issues - any vote - will involve the dynamics of the other 9 members, with Texas being a swing vote, and in that case, we as UCONN - need to be friends with Texas.

 

[IMind]

Why BEFORE they split the money? You split the money, guaranteeing Texas a certain minimum (to match what they would have made under LHN).

Below examples assume $100MM for B12N:

Ex 1: (your way)
$100MM - $15MM = $85MM / 12 = $7.08MM each, with Texas getting $22.08MM

Ex 2: (how they will likely do it)

$100MM / 12 = $8.33MM each; however, Texas is guaranteed $15MM, so $15MM - 8.33MM = $6.67MM / 11 members = $606K subsidy (each) to Texas.

Thus, Texas gets their $15MM, each other school gets $8.33MM - $606K = $7.72MM

The Texas guarantee will likely have a sunset provision, and there would be no subsidy once/if B12N hits $180MM (since each school would then be getting $15MM).

In exchange for taking a relatively small haircut (likely only for a certain period of time), you eliminate the LHN, create a B12N, and expand the conference's footprint. Everybody comes out ahead of where they are now, and Texas preserves it's current revenue stream - at least for a certain period of time.

I think they actually need to convince Texas that they'd make MORE money with a Big 12 network than the LHN. Lure them with the absurd amounts of money the SEC and B1G channels are making. Convince them: Expand the footprint, drop the LHN, get larger channel carriage fees in the markets you're already in, and make ESPN more money because they've got a better product to advertise... the Big 12's problem has always been that they never operate together. They've always had one of the worst TV contracts, etc.

 

[Carl Spackler]

I think they actually need to convince Texas that they'd make MORE money with a Big 12 network than the LHN. Lure them with the absurd amounts of money the SEC and B1G channels are making. Convince them: Expand the footprint, drop the LHN, get larger channel carriage fees in the markets you're already in, and make ESPN more money because they've got a better product to advertise... the Big 12's problem has always been that they never operate together. They've always had one of the worst TV contracts, etc.

This is the opposite thought process to my hypothetical bullsh--t. Ideal for sure. The same principle applies. The other 9 members of the conference got to put a plan in place, such that they're expanding and making at least the same money that they're making now. In that case, they can sit the good ole lone star state U down at a table and begin to talk business from a negotiating position that's at least even.

Because it stands to reason, that everybody would be better off with Texas, but if Texas is going to continue to be a thorn - then buh bye. Start working the phones to get sports scheduled as an independent, and let ESPN deal with the contract, and play your chances of landing elsewhere. It seems like wisdom would prevail, you'd hope, and that kind of hardball wouldn't happen.

THe real questions I see - are how much does ESPN really want to make the current longhorn network contract either go away, or be modified - and how much can the other nine big 12 members make, if they were to expand to 12 with Texas or without, or even 14 schools with or without Texas? Would the numbers make it possible? It's pretty clear that keeping Texas would be the ideal - but could the numbers work out similar - equal - or at least similar enough to make the powerplay worth it? I don't know. Only one way to find out - and I'm not in position to do that, but I'm sure there are people that could.

A theoretical hypothetical play like this - would invovle somebody being left holding the bag again. Somebody would get left standing without a chair again - and it would either Texas, or a school that would have been the last school in after booting Texas to independence with their TV deal - like BYU, and Notre Dame.

I just don't want UCONN to be left standing alone again, because we haven't worked the phones, and built all the necessary relationships and done everything possible, so that the next time there is a vote, we don't have enough votes.

 

[mavblues]

LOL. You parsed my words far more closely than they were written for.

frankly, if they try to strike a deal it's likely to be something in between your two scenarios.

But I Math'd...

 

[CAHUSKY]

I don't have LHN on my subscription and I get just about every single sports network imaginable. That's not to say it isn't on somewhere here in the northeast. But I doubt I'm the only one who doesn't get it on our package. And honestly, even if I did get it, I would NEVER watch it...unless UConn was playing Texas. If they become conference mates, maybe I would watch it.

That's what I thought until my DVR automatically recorded a replay of the UCONN v. UT basketball game the other day. Never had a clue LHN was available on DirecTV.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Somebody would get left standing without a chair again - and it would either Texas, or a school that would have been the last school in after booting Texas to independence with their TV deal - like BYU, and Notre Dame.

What does this mean?

 

[mavblues]

That's what I thought until my DVR automatically recorded a replay of the UCONN v. UT basketball game the other day. Never had a clue LHN was available on DirecTV.

You now owe UT $1.25

 

[CL82]

You misunderstood. The other Big XII members would have to let Texas have its guarantied take first, before they split money. and the answer to "would they" is it's not costing them anything up front, it's temporary and without it there is no Big XII long term.

No, I understood, I just don't see it happening. If a team objects to the LHN, wouldn't you object to giving up your Tier 3 rights for no compensation in order to have a "Big 12 Network?" If the LHN is already a money loser for ESPN, why would they dump more money toward a Big 12 Network? The money for the other Big Twelve teams has to come from somewhere and I doubt that Texas is going take a dollar less for a Big 12 Network than they are currently making from the LHN.

 

[CL82]

Why BEFORE they split the money? You split the money, guaranteeing Texas a certain minimum (to match what they would have made under LHN).

Below examples assume $100MM for B12N:

Ex 1: (your way)
$100MM - $15MM = $85MM / 12 = $7.08MM each, with Texas getting $22.08MM

Ex 2: (how they will likely do it)

$100MM / 12 = $8.33MM each; however, Texas is guaranteed $15MM, so $15MM - 8.33MM = $6.67MM / 11 members = $606K subsidy (each) to Texas.

Thus, Texas gets their $15MM, each other school gets $8.33MM - $606K = $7.72MM

The Texas guarantee will likely have a sunset provision, and there would be no subsidy once/if B12N hits $180MM (since each school would then be getting $15MM).

In exchange for taking a relatively small haircut (likely only for a certain period of time), you eliminate the LHN, create a B12N, and expand the conference's footprint. Everybody comes out ahead of where they are now, and Texas preserves it's current revenue stream - at least for a certain period of time.

I like the logic of this but where is the $100M coming from?