WVU's Gee: going to 12 is most likely

[Carl Spackler]

What does this mean?

I probably did a crap job of laying out the hypothetical sceneario because I'm typing fast. My hypothetical, involves the 9 members of the big 12, other than Texas - doing the homework and legwork, and backroom work to find out that by expanding the conference, if they can make at least the same money now in a variety of circumstances - most importantly - how much could be made - by NOT including Texas in the conference picture.

I honestly don't know if it would be possible or not, and all my bullsh-t ends right there - if it's not - but I don't know that to be the case, so it's play time on the internet to let the thoughts go forward.

So playing along, going through as many scenarios as possible - the conference decides expansion is in the best interest, and they're able to present Texas with an offer they can't - or shouldn't refuse. Drop the longhorn network, and void the contract with ESPN, or get out of the conference, and play the dice with their ESPN contract and independence in scheduling football - like BYU and Notre Dame.

That certainly wouldn't be ideal for everybody - but if the money is right, and it would be possible - then you do it for the other 9 schools to preserve their best interests.

But in all this hypothetical, there would be one school - no matter what - that is left out. It would be either Texas pushed out - in favor of the schools chosen for expansion. Or the schools chosen for expansion minus one - because TExas stays.

I wouldn't want UCONN to be the one with the least votes, that ends up being that minus one.

It's all hypothetical baloney. Tooliing around on the internet.

The reality - is that sooner or later, another vote is going to come up regarding conference membership and changing conference membership - and I don't want UCONN to be left on the beach in Caribbean -

(see what I did there?)

I'm out on this. Enough playtime on the internet today.

And again - it's all bullsh----t.

I know nothing, and even if I did - I do NOT leak.

It's pretty clear - that

 

[mavblues]

I like the logic of this but where is the $100M coming from?

From my post:

"Below examples assume $100MM for B12N:"

 

[CL82]

From my post:

"Below examples assume $100MM for B12N:"

I got it. Here's another one. Assume UConn gets a $1 billion ten year deal in order to start "The UConn Network for Entertainment and Sports (TUNES), does it make sense to go independent and take this deal? Of course, it does. Will it happen? Unlikely.

 

[CL82]

Hmmn, maybe the money for Big Twelve Network is there...

Linky

 

[pj]

It's still a net positive for U of Texas. The goal of Texas is to do what is best for them and not what keeps the biggest distance between them and a few other schools near them. There may be a few boosters that like it the way it is, but the university president and the vast majority of alumni will want what is overall best for the University IMO.

If Texas is committed to staying in the B12, then folding LHN into a B12 network with Texas getting the first $15 mn of network earnings would be a positive solution. B12 network would outsell LHN so more upside for them.

However, if they are considering exiting the B12, doing that would tie them more closely to the B12 and make exit harder. Right now, if they leave they can take LHN with them. If they fold LHN into B12 network and then leave, they lose it.

Texas can get an invite anywhere (B1G, Pac, SEC, ND-type deal to ACC) so there is a lot of optionality they give up by committing to B12.

 

[mavblues]

I got it. Here's another one. Assume UConn gets a $1 billion ten year deal in order to start "The UConn Network for Entertainment and Sports (TUNES), does it make sense to go independent and take this deal? Of course, it does. Will it happen? Unlikely.

If anything, I think the $100MM I used was extremely conservative. Numbers for the SEC network were just released, and B12N won't be starting from scratch - LHN already has distribution agreements that would most likely be retained/expanded.

Why do you feel that the $100MM is so incredibly unrealistic? Live sports content is still key, even in this era of cord cutting.

EDIT: I see you followed up your original post by posting the link to the SEC network's numbers.

 

[Slasher]

The one key point a lot of people are missing here is that the LHN is a failure because no one outside of Texas fans/alums cares about it. If it morphs into Big 12 network, than the state of Oklahoma, Kansas, SW Ohio, (assuming Cincy), Connecticut and parts of NY and MA (assuming UConn) cares. That triples the footprint of the cable carriage fees, thus making it more profitable for ESPN. I forgot WV and IA but you get the point.

 

[CL82]

If anything, I think the $100MM I used was extremely conservative. Numbers for the SEC network were just released, and B12N won't be starting from scratch - LHN already has distribution agreements that would most likely be retained/expanded.

Why do you feel that the $100MM is so incredibly unrealistic? Live sports content is still key, even in this era of cord cutting.

EDIT: I see you followed up your original post by posting the link to the SEC network's numbers.

After your post I saw the SEC numbers, and they are stunning. I'm still skeptical if Big 12 content can make enough to breakeven on the LHN and pay $$ to the remaining conference members. Still, if I would be glad to be wrong.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/...ay-mailbag-expansion-title-contenders-in-2016

@BChatmon @ESPN_Big12 what is the likelihood the Big 12 expands and adds UConn

— Husky Army (@thehuskyarmy) January 19, 2016

Chatmon: I'm starting to believe we're inching closer to expansion, but it still won't be anytime soon. Frankly, there aren't a lot of really good, available options, but UConn would be worth considering. I would still say it's unlikely, mainly because expansion is a ways away and a lot can happen before then.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

B12 Network is a must if B12 is to survive. There isn't another option. Texas has to play team ball or B12 will die sooner or later. If they want markets, no one can deliver it better than UCONN. B12 better invite us so now if they want to go to 12 and start a network. I am hoping B1G will realize losing us will have consequences. UCONN brings a lot more than just state of CT.

 

[Jimdish255]

Even if you get the LHN it sucks and almost nobody watches it.

The larger issue is that talk of a real B12 Network is driving the proposals of schools that want to strengthen the conference for the future. Offering to subsidize Texas puts them in an awkward position if they resist. It absolutely brings UConn's best attributes to the forefront of the discussion, and elevates our value as media property for the B12 or any league looking for market share or strategic advantage. Other conferences have to be watching this closely.

Unfortunately the car wash might be closed due to weather on Saturday.

 

[BlueDogs]

I suspect (unlike in the past where we were asleep at the wheel) there is a lot more happening than meets our public eyes. I also suspect that any rational conference decision makers are thinking they have to pull the trigger sooner rather than later to plant a flag in New England to either lock up the Northeast or to make sure they have access. Stay tuned.

 

[TruthNnumbers]

After your post I saw the SEC numbers, and they are stunning. I'm still skeptical if Big 12 content can make enough to breakeven on the LHN and pay $$ to the remaining conference members. Still, if I would be glad to be wrong.

I may not be following you both correctly but you do understand that the number given in your link is for total payout from the conference, not for SEC network money only? The SEC gave out $5.5 million this year from the SEC network per school. The BTN gave $7.6 million per school or at least those getting full cuts plus I believe for the first time the BTN gave a additional $1 million profit share to those 11 schools getting a full cut. Anyway that would be $77 million that the SEC network handed out and $90+ that the BTN passed around depending on how much Neb, Maryland and Rutgers received plus the $11 million in profit share. If the XII network made $50 million for the conference schools the first year I would be surprised. So that would be $15 million to Texas leaving $35 million or $3.9 million per school from a XII network.

http://www.whatyoupayforsports.com/...ols-getting-so-little-money-from-sec-network/

 

[NYUConn]

http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/...ay-mailbag-expansion-title-contenders-in-2016

@BChatmon @ESPN_Big12 what is the likelihood the Big 12 expands and adds UConn

— Husky Army (@thehuskyarmy) January 19, 2016

Chatmon: I'm starting to believe we're inching closer to expansion, but it still won't be anytime soon. Frankly, there aren't a lot of really good, available options, but UConn would be worth considering. I would still say it's unlikely, mainly because expansion is a ways away and a lot can happen before then.

He may be right that UConn won't get in, but his response on "inching" closer to expansion seems particularly tone deaf in light of what Boren and Gee have been openly saying over the last 48 hours.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

He may be right that UConn won't get in, but his response on "inching" closer to expansion seems particularly tone deaf in light of what Boren and Gee have been openly saying over the last 48 hours.

I don't think ESPN is too keen on B12 expansion so I take it as an admission that there are rumblings that can't be ignored and the fact the ESPN B12 reporter said it made sense to consider UConn, instead of rejecting it outright as most of the football reporters have done in the past regarding UConn, makes me think there are really teeth to the rumors this time around.

 

[Carl Spackler]

ESPN laid off 300 employees in October.

http://www.businessinsider.com/espn-mistakes-led-to-layoffs-2015-10

It's pretty damn clear - that the Texas Longhorn Network, was another mistake, that ESPN learned from - with the SEC network. ESPN obviously is facing a whole host of issues, but when you're in that kind of situation, you got to start counting pennies, and the LHN might be a drop in the bucket in overall budgeting, and ESPN is still cutting checks - but what's the growth potential?

I've asked this question today - and it's a good one. How far is ESPN willing to go, to correct the losses it's taking on the LHN, in favor of something, that is at least break even and has potential to grow? I bet they are a lot more motivated to do such a thing in 2016, than they were in 2014.

We know from past experience, and blabbermouths, that ESPN was directly involved in things involving conference level decision making among intercollegiate institutions from things involving UCONN, the Big East, and the ACC in the past.

 

[Jimdish255]

He may be right that UConn won't get in, but his response on "inching" closer to expansion seems particularly tone deaf in light of what Boren and Gee have been openly saying over the last 48 hours.

Nobody makes that type of statement when they're "inching closer". That's what you do when you're actively lobbying and trying to build a consensus.

 

[pj]

B12 and ACC should team up. Neither conference has enough traction to support a network by itself, but together, they'd have enough content and footprint to make it work.

A B12+ACC network might generate roughly as much money as a B1G or SEC network, for half as much money per school. Better than no network at all.

 

[noeynox]

B12 and ACC should team up. Neither conference has enough traction to support a network by itself, but together, they'd have enough content and footprint to make it work.

A B12+ACC network might generate roughly as much money as a B1G or SEC network, for half as much money per school. Better than no network at all.

Till were in, keep these thoughts in your head.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

B12 and ACC should team up. Neither conference has enough traction to support a network by itself, but together, they'd have enough content and footprint to make it work.

A B12+ACC network might generate roughly as much money as a B1G or SEC network, for half as much money per school. Better than no network at all.

An alliance and joint network may work; but, not a combined conference unless some schools were raided by the B1G and/or SEC or if some schools were cut, which is very unlikely, as a 25 team conference would be a mess to manage.

 

[Kolumbo]

An AAC network, and we'll let Oklahoma and Kansas broadcast their state U's at a cost.

 

[UConn990411]

Ehhhh, this is a very West Virginia-centric view of things.

Sure ESPN would restructure the LHN to a Big 12 network instantly, but where is the incentive for Texas to give up such a prestigious money-maker? You can't just say, "the Big 12 would simply cover the money Texas would earn." That helps financially, but the exposure UT gets from having it's own network can't be rivaled by anything a Big 12 Network would provide.

You must be new here.

Everything conference realignment-related must go through West Virginia.