What if PAC 12 tries to go to 16 with Big 12 teams?

[UConnJim]

The PAC 12 has been very quiet. If conferences go to 16, as many on this board have pointed out, the PAC 12 has few attractive options. Why not approach Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St.? It's not too late for it to happen. Think about it, the western part of the PAC 12 with Arizona, Arizona St., Colorado, Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., and Texas Tech would be very good and the travel wouldn't be bad. Plus, the PAC 12 lacks traditional football powers outside of USC, with a number of schools that have had periods of excellence. Adding Texas and Oklahoma would solve that problem. If conferences are going to 16 schools, this is the most attractive option for the Pac 12 and the current conference schools would have to approve it. In addition, this conference would include the fastest growing states, which in the future, will increase the conference value.

The PAC 12 expanding in this way would create orphans of Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., TCU, Baylor, and West Virginia. Would any of the power conferences be that upset or jump to add these schools? I don't think so.

This scenario probably won't happen, but the odds are not zero and it would probably be very positive for UConn finding a home in one of the 4 power conferences.

 

[junglehusky]

Where were you last year? They were talking to Texas/OU but in the end couldn't make a deal about the longhorn / sooner networks. After that the B12 re-solidified enough to keep from imploding.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I think this happened like a year ago?

Pac-12 wouldn't succumb to Texas' demands.

 

[UConnDan97]

The PAC 12 has been very quiet. If conferences go to 16, as many on this board have pointed out, the PAC 12 has few attractive options. Why not approach Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St.? It's not too late for it to happen.

It kinda is too late for it to happen. With TCU and WVU on board, along with a gonzo tv contract, and an imminent arrival of either or both FSU and Clemson.....yeah, it's too late.

If I were to play the "what if" game, and I were the commissioner of the PAC-12, and if I felt I needed to expand (that's a lot of "if"), then my first phone call would likely be to BYU. The Big12 are in play for BYU, as well as the Big East to some degree, but BYU has to be shaking in their boots about independence right now. I think it is one of the few entities on the western side of the country that is worth money to a power conference. Obviously, the "pie in the sky" pick would be Notre Dame, trying to play off of their rivalry with USC and their near-perennial game with Stanford. They would need a "ND tv" deal though, that would be much harder to crack than saying no to a "BYU tv" deal. Finally, if I really wanted to get aggressive, I call Boise State.

 

[UConnJim]

I think the college football landscape has changed considerably in the last year. The BCS still existed, there wasn't a four team playoff, there wasn't clarity,as there is now, on how four conferences can take over major college football. If the PAC 12 is going to 16 teams, the Big 12 schools are the only attractive option. In addition, the PAC 12 could use an additional traditional power school as they only have one, USC.

Why could this happen? I don't believe the Big 12 TV contract has been signed yet, so the PAC 12 would have to act now.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

it is too late, the new big 12 deal includes a clause that if anyone leaves over the next six years (looking to be extended) they forfeit ALL tv revenue from their new conference until that period is up. in other words, no one's leaving.

 

[speedoo]

I'm not sure the Pac 12 will be 1 of the 4 if they can't raid the B12. Adding BYU and maybe even adding Boise may not be enough of a boost. And they clearly need a boost to be sure they will be one of the 4, because just USC will not be enough. I would argue that the ACC, with FSU and Clemson would be about as strong as the current Pac 12.

 

[RS9999X]

They chose to work with the BiG to maximize assets.

You can read the Big 12 contracts and consider what money is there for the PAC by adding Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech? That's the problem. It's not accretive.

Add in Texas with a complete revenue split and maybe there's a contract there. The $15 million Long Horn Contract is worth what? $10 mil more than other local contracts? Throw that into a pool of 16 teams and what's the accretion? A mil per team? Top tier network money would be accretive but what are we talking? A couple mil per team? Then there'd be a new PAC and SEC bowl and 3 Power conference alignment with the PAC as the hub?

Sometimes the marginal gains aren't worth the grief.

 

[whaler11]

BYU to the PAC 12 is crazy. Schools like Cal-Berkeley are so far away politically from BYU it's an impossible bridge.

 

[The Funster]

I think thr Big 12 deals were just verbal agreements, no? The TV deal and the GOR deal haven't been signed, IIRC. Until they are, I'd say the Pac should look to reopen discussions with Texas or potentially be the B1G's little brother for perpetuity.

 

[gioff23]

I have posted a lot that I believe the B12 remains in a tenuous spot. IMO, what is driving the B12 is not a sudden lovefest amongst its members or Neinas desire to go out on top, but a pure and simple a realizaion that in this GAME, one is either eaten (the BE) or eats (everyone else). The B12 went for the latter when they were on the brink of dissolving. They remain there.

If you believe the 16 team conference is the future then the B12 and Pac12 must go to war at some point over ASSETS - UT, OU and their respective orphans (TT and OSU). The Pac 12 could go for a BYU or a Boise, but they ain't going for SDSU or Hawaii or Fresno or UNLV, when OU is sitting there for the taking. And OU is not excited about being a stepchild to Austin or landlocked.

And fans in this conference should know better than to believe league agreements are binding and enforceable. The B12 may have come up w/a nice contract and they can write whatever terms they want about media rights, but no court is going to enforce what would effectively be a 6 year non-compete. None.

The problem with this playstation version of Nuclear War is that someone has to either blink or run out of money, and we are starting to see snippets of the latter (UMd, FSU running deficits). My recommendation is to buckle up and try and enjoy the ride, because the end result is that a lot of programs are going to realize that they have been chasing fool's gold and no matter how much money they secure, they can't stop from spending more, leading to larger deficits. Look around -- see a lot of schools making more money with the rich TV contracts, glamorous bowls and big payouts? Your watching the sports equivalent of the mortgage crisis we are enduring in this country - everyone is buying 2d houses, refinancing, and bragging about the shiny new toys in the yard. Unfortunately, they are spending money they don't have in the hopes that more money will appear. And someday soon, most state university presidens will be forced to show up their local state house, hat in hand, asking for more money.

 

[UConnJim]

The divide between have and have nots is getting larger. Private schools are at risk. If you ask me, the ACC's biggest mistake was adding additional private schools to the conference with the most private schools. The ACC had 2 private schools and they have invited 3 more to have a total of 5, by far the greatest concentration of any conference. Private schools = low media value, especially in a world of conference networks.

 

[Jericho]

I don't think the Pac expands and I don't think it matters. People want to force this 4 conference, 16 school paradigm. But why? Why just 4 conferences and why 16 schools each? The Pac 12 is fine as is and I don't see anyone leaving anytime soon.

The best bet for expansion might be to see if some state schools, like New Mexico or Nevada, can improve and grow as their states do (it will take a long time though).

 

[HuskyHawk]

I don't think the Pac expands and I don't think it matters. People want to force this 4 conference, 16 school paradigm. But why? Why just 4 conferences and why 16 schools each? The Pac 12 is fine as is and I don't see anyone leaving anytime soon.

The best bet for expansion might be to see if some state schools, like New Mexico or Nevada, can improve and grow as their states do (it will take a long time though).

Agreed. And I think it is more likely that the Big 12 tries to poach the Pac 12 and re-claim Colorado and add Utah. The Pac 12 got a wildly unrealistic contract, far out of proportion to its value. It will never add a school like Boise, and doesn't need to. That would be incredibly short term thinking. Boise has less resources and less brand recognition than any school in the Pac 12. Their run is about to come to an end.

 

[Jericho]

Agreed. And I think it is more likely that the Big 12 tries to poach the Pac 12 and re-claim Colorado and add Utah. The Pac 12 got a wildly unrealistic contract, far out of proportion to its value. It will never add a school like Boise, and doesn't need to. That would be incredibly short term thinking. Boise has less resources and less brand recognition than any school in the Pac 12. Their run is about to come to an end.

Does anyone really care about Utah? Colorado is more meaningful, but they left the Big 12 for a reason. And it wasn't money. The same problems remain if they return.

 

[RS9999X]

I don't think the Pac expands and I don't think it matters. People want to force this 4 conference, 16 school paradigm. But why? Why just 4 conferences and why 16 schools each? The Pac 12 is fine as is and I don't see anyone leaving anytime soon.).

Larry Scott has an entirely different strategythan PAC-16.

Capturng the hearts and minds of the burgeoning Asian populaton on the West Coast is vital for the survival of the PAC. It's a generational thing: Hispanics and Asians need to become PAC enthusiasts and financial backers if the the PAC is to survive.

UCLA is going balls to the wall to court the Chinese market and plant the UCLA and PAC flag with overseas tours and eventually PAC-12 games.

Capturing Montana (or Oklahoma) is not on the agenda. It's a blue state red state thing and yes California has lots of Mormons too. They don't need BYU they have Utah -- Mormon lite.

Asian population: The 4 California Schools (UCLA, USC, Cal, Stanford) and U of Oregon and U of Washngton together average a 33% Asian population and increasing. Asians haven't lowered their standards to go to Washington or Oregon state or Sherrif Joe country in large numbers yet.


http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bas...ive-ucla-bruins-trip-china-college-basketball

 

[alexrgct]

PAC-12 overplayed their hands last year, tried to strong-arm the wrong university, and missed out on their opportunity to add the only schools it made any sense to add. I have no idea what the PAC tries to do now.

 

[alexrgct]

Does anyone really care about Utah? Colorado is more meaningful, but they left the Big 12 for a reason. And it wasn't money. The same problems remain if they return.

The Utah/SLC market is growing and is valuable.

 

[Jericho]

The Utah/SLC market is growing and is valuable.

Lots of places are growing. Hell, most of the West is growing. And there are some other big markets still out there. But doesn't make them attractive properties. The only conference that might even think of trying for Utah is the Big 12. And I don't see why they'd be interested.

 

[TuxedoYoda]

I am consistently amazed at how many seemingly knowledgeable college football fans have no idea the Big 12 members (and WVU & TCU) have signed a Grant of Rights contract.

 

[The Funster]

I am consistently amazed at how many seemingly knowledgeable college football fans have no idea the Big 12 members (and WVU & TCU) have signed a Grant of Rights contract.

Presidents "verbally" agreed to a 6 year GOR in September and pledged 13 years when the numbers for the new TV deal were announced. However, I can't find anything saying that a GOR has formally been agreed to in writing.

 

[jpm25]

The divide between have and have nots is getting larger. Private schools are at risk. If you ask me, the ACC's biggest mistake was adding additional private schools to the conference with the most private schools. The ACC had 2 private schools and they have invited 3 more to have a total of 5, by far the greatest concentration of any conference. Private schools = low media value, especially in a world of conference networks.

two of the most popular independent TV deals are for private schools. I suppose it matters which private schools - in the case of the ACC they are smal and less football relevant, but the favorite to the national champion this year is a private school.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

No one is raiding the Pac 12, and at this point it doesn't appear that the Pac 12 will ever raid the Big 12. Boise State and BYU are the only two candidates for expansion in the West. Boise State is a national brand with good attendance in a decent sized city. I believe they are expanding the stadium, and with a better schedule, would probably expand it again. The basketball program sucks but would probably still win 5 or 6 conference games in a Pac 12 that is pretty awful top to bottom. I believe Boise does play a sport or two in the Pac 12 already.

BYU is a tremendous national program with a large following and is strong in football and basketball. It would be a strong financial addition to any league, particularly one like the PAC 12 that has its own network, but its leadership is a giant pain in the to work with, and it has embarked on this independence mission that seems like program seppuku to me.

Boise would be the third best football program in the Pac 12, and BYU would be about the 5th or 6th. BYU would have won the league in basketball the last two years. Those two are it though. Everyone else out there is such a huge drop off in terms of fan interest and national presence that they are not worth discussing.

 

[UConnJim]

two of the most popular independent TV deals are for private schools. I suppose it matters which private schools - in the case of the ACC they are smal and less football relevant, but the favorite to the national champion this year is a private school.

There are two private schools that make a difference, ND and USC. I did not include Miami as they haven't been relevant in a decade plus. The rest of the BCS privates, BC, Duke, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Stanford, Baylor, TCU, and Northwestern are mostly irrelevant on a national basis with small fan followings.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

There are two private schools that make a difference, ND and USC. I did not include Miami as they haven't been relevant in a decade plus. The rest of the BCS privates, BC, Duke, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Stanford, Baylor, TCU, and Northwestern are mostly irrelevant on a national basis with small fan followings.

Not to nitpick, but Miami won the National Championship 10 years ago and played in the National Championship 9 years ago and followed that up with some solid bowl wins.

They may not be The U of old, but let's not pretend they've fallen off the radar.