Uneven revenue distribution model picking up steam in the ACC? (The Clemson Insider)

[Husky92]

We know that five schools have come out publicly for uneven conference distributions based on media value brought in...FSU, Miami, Clemson, North Carolina, and Louisville...

BC, Syracuse, GT, Duke, Wake will fight that to their last breath (unless eat what you kill extends to BB credits).

VT, Virginia, NC State..and the rest..????

Um…Louisville said they were in favor as long as it was based on productivity of ALL SPORTS including cross country!! Doesn’t sound like the same pitch FSU was making!!

 

[FfldCntyFan]

If I'm Cuse, Wake, Pitt or any other also ran in the ACC, I tell FSU and Clemson that they better plan to honor the current deal or be prepared to pay the entirety of the exit fees and full GOR Terms. There will be zero negotiation. These lower value ACC Schools know full well that FSU, Clemson, and a few others aren't sticking around post 2036 regardless of whatever concessions that they might give those teams now.

If they can force the full term of the contract, they will collect more money than they are worth and not have to worry about scheduling for another 13 years. The FSU and Clemson Admins were dumb enough to sign the deal with ESPN knowing what it entailed. Unfortunately for them they will likely have to live up that mistake for a long time.

I agree and will add (if I were one of those schools) that the only way I would consider altering the current agreed upon terms would be if the GOR is extended.

 

[billybud]

Um…Louisville said they were in favor as long as it was based on productivity of ALL SPORTS including cross country!! Doesn’t sound like the same pitch FSU was making!!

Productivity...isn't synonomous with value...But OK...

FSU will pitch their ladies soccer team...NC's in 2018, 2021, and runner ups in 2020...so will UNC...or FSU softball...NC in 2018, runner up in 2021...

But of course that is all meaningless.

What will probably happen is that he new CFP money might be unequally distributed based on football performance...but that is a hard sell to BC or Cuse, ec.

 

[Kolumbo]

Many have argued that the ACC can't last until 2036. There are many scenarios where the members could vote to dissolve because it could be in their best interest. Let me lay it out so you can play it out:

B1G: FSU, Georgia Tech, UNC, UVA
SEC: Clemson, Miami, NC State, VPI
Big 12: Louisville, Pitt
Scraps: Duke, Wake, BCU, Syracuse

This or similar alignments are very unlikely but there is the potential. And should something like this happen, some programs will be left in the lurch. They just might think it would be better to proactively find a long-term solution than to take a chance on missing out. Louisville and Pitt for example would probably be just as happy in the secure Big 12 than in the unknown ACC and want to tie that down rather than risk one of the other scraps going that route first. Does Pitt really want to hold on and miss the boat on the chance that Syracuse flee first? It's every man, including the old bag, for himself.

 

[ScottVib]

Except in what world does Clemson, Miami, NC State and Virginia Tech add enough value to the SEC to keep all of their members "whole." The SEC isn't making a move that costs them money and Clemson is (arguably) the only team that might bring in enough revenue to pay for their own share.

Disney/ESPN is certainly not going to agree to overpay for those 4 so that the Big Ten (and FOX, etc) can get their first pick schools.

 

[billybud]

Yeah...
But a few years ago I would have asked..."In what world does a conference get paid $1.2 billion per year ?"

 

[Kolumbo]

Except in what world does Clemson, Miami, NC State and Virginia Tech add enough value to the SEC to keep all of their members "whole." The SEC isn't making a move that costs them money and Clemson is (arguably) the only team that might bring in enough revenue to pay for their own share.

Disney/ESPN is certainly not going to agree to overpay for those 4 so that the Big Ten (and FOX, etc) can get their first pick schools.

In a world where a conference sees value in playing in North Carolina and Virginia which happen to be #9 and #12 population-wise.

Even if there are only 6 or 8 locks to vote for dissolution, the remaining members would have to bank on each other not pulling the ripcord before they get a chance to.

"This or similar alignments..."

 

[CL82]

In a world where a conference sees value in playing in North Carolina and Virginia which happen to be #9 and #12 population-wise.

Even if there are only 6 or 8 locks to vote for dissolution, the remaining members would have to bank on each other not pulling the ripcord before they get a chance to.

"This or similar alignments..."

Why would it matter? If you vote no, and the vote fails, the conference continues. If you vote to know the dissolution in the vote succeeds, the conference is dissolved. There’s no penalty for being on the wrong side of the vote.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

Many have argued that the ACC can't last until 2036. There are many scenarios where the members could vote to dissolve because it could be in their best interest. Let me lay it out so you can play it out:

B1G: FSU, Georgia Tech, UNC, UVA
SEC: Clemson, Miami, NC State, VPI
Big 12: Louisville, Pitt
Scraps: Duke, Wake, BCU, Syracuse

This or similar alignments are very unlikely but there is the potential. And should something like this happen, some programs will be left in the lurch. They just might think it would be better to proactively find a long-term solution than to take a chance on missing out. Louisville and Pitt for example would probably be just as happy in the secure Big 12 than in the unknown ACC and want to tie that down rather than risk one of the other scraps going that route first. Does Pitt really want to hold on and miss the boat on the chance that Syracuse flee first? It's every man, including the old bag, for himself.

I think UNC, UVA, Wake and Duke (tobacco road) will stay together, add BC, Syracuse, as well as UConn, Tulane, and you have the foundation of the new ACC

 

[AZHuskiePop]

I believe the Old Big East had an uneven distribution model
with Miami getting a bigger cut . How did that work out ?Although the MW needed it to lure SDSU and Boise back from the BigEast/ AAC. IF SDSU goes to the PAC another fail .

 

[Ldandy]

Not to beat a dead horse, but I see no reason why The ACC Schools would ever agree an uneven payment model. The schools that actually want to leave now can't. The GOR in place is formidable. The amount of backroom dealing that would be necessary to move enough teams into other conferences equal to or more desirable than the current ACC is nearly impossible to pull off. In 2036 FSU and Clemson are gone no matter what. Why pay them more now when this is already a foregone conclusion?

 

[billybud]

The ACC, as a whole, would never agree to an uneven payment model.

Already, schools like UNC are chipping in that they, as well, want consideration...no one wants to miss a raise while others receive their portion...there is no real incentive for a vote to go that way.

But I do get a sense that something will happen...You get the feeling that the FSU/Clemson administration feel that their castles are besieged by surrounding forces and they must either make a maybe suicidal foray out or die by slow starvation.

 

[Husky92]

The ACC, as a whole, would never agree to an uneven payment model.

Already, schools like UNC are chipping in that they, as well, want consideration...no one wants to miss a raise while others receive their portion...there is no real incentive for a vote to go that way.

But I do get a sense that something will happen...You get the feeling that the FSU/Clemson administration feel that their castles are besieged by surrounding forces and they must either make a maybe suicidal foray out or die by slow starvation.

I’m all for a suicidal foray! UConn needs all the chaos and shake-ups it can find. We’ve been dying that slow death by starvation since the Big East died.

 

[Hondo 77]

Not to beat a dead horse, but I see no reason why The ACC Schools would ever agree an uneven payment model. The schools that actually want to leave now can't. The GOR in place is formidable. The amount of backroom dealing that would be necessary to move enough teams into other conferences equal to or more desirable than the current ACC is nearly impossible to pull off. In 2036 FSU and Clemson are gone no matter what. Why pay them more now when this is already a foregone conclusion?

Anyway, an unequal pay model will still not get Florida State and Clemson anything near B1G or SEC money and probably less than the Big12 will get.

 

[Kolumbo]

Why would it matter? If you vote no, and the vote fails, the conference continues. If you vote to know the dissolution in the vote succeeds, the conference is dissolved. There’s no penalty for being on the wrong side of the vote.

There absolutely is a penalty for being on the wrong side of the vote. The penalty if you vote no while your other "no's" turn and vote yes, they did an end-around and found a place to land (Big 12) while you are stuck playing with yourself.

 

[dayooper]

There absolutely is a penalty for being on the wrong side of the vote. The penalty if you vote no while your other "no's" turn and vote yes, they did an end-around and found a place to land (Big 12) while you are stuck playing with yourself.

Maybe if they made some sort of alliance where they all agree to vote no. I think that might work out just fine for everybody.

 

[Kolumbo]

Maybe if they made some sort of alliance where they all agree to vote no. I think that might work out just fine for everybody.

An alliance would work. Like the PAC - B1G - ACC alliance.

 

[CL82]

There absolutely is a penalty for being on the wrong side of the vote. The penalty if you vote no while your other "no's" turn and vote yes, they did an end-around and found a place to land (Big 12) while you are stuck playing with yourself.

You were conflating your vote with finding an alternative conference. They are two different things. If you can get into a conference that makes more money, you do it. If you can’t, you don’t.

 

[Kolumbo]

You were conflating your vote with finding an alternative conference. They are two different things. If you can get into a conference that makes more money, you do it. If you can’t, you don’t.

Wait what?

 

[billybud]

What will really happen ?

The SEC-B1G will each have multiple teams in the 12 team playoff...the ACC, and other conferences may have one.

Like the basketball model, we can cheer for the Cinderella's trying to wade through the big boys...the Cinderella's (like Cincinnati was in 2021), will rarely make the Championship game. But, like the basketball model, we will claim that it is the little guy against Goliath that creates the charm and interest.

But...for that interest to perpetuate, the little guy must occasionally beat Goliath...and that may become more difficult to do with the vast money differences and the football changes that allow you to weaponize that money.

The SEC and B1G won't begrudge the little guys winning an opening CFP match while their best sit out with a bye...as long as the championships and CFP money flow their way.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

There absolutely is a penalty for being on the wrong side of the vote. The penalty if you vote no while your other "no's" turn and vote yes, they did an end-around and found a place to land (Big 12) while you are stuck playing with yourself.

For this to work there would need to be at least three or four current ACC members who would choose being in the B-12, while watching Clemson, FSU, and another school or two hit the lottery over remaining in the current ACC.

I don't see it.

 

[Ldandy]

If I'm not mistaken The ACC would need 10 Teams (including ND) to vote yes on dissolution in order to break up the conference. With the Big 12 jumping the gun and adding AAC Schools Cincinatti, UCF and Houston, while still flirting heavily with PAC Schools like Arizona and Colorado, exactly how many spots on their lifeboat can they offer when The ACC starts taking on water?

The B1G and SEC are at 16 Teams. Can either squeeze enough revenue out of their TV Partners to keep their current members whole if one of the new additions is not ND as a full member? I suppose we could see a situation where each of the 3 surviving conferences goes to 20-24 teams, but that is a huge gamble to take for certain teams right now versus trying to maintain the status quo for another decade. If you are GT, Duke, Pitt, Cuse, WF, or BC are you comfortable with voting yes on dissolution? Are you confident that you have a seat at the next table?

 

[TheCatsLair]

If I'm not mistaken The ACC would need 10 Teams (including ND) to vote yes on dissolution in order to break up the conference. With the Big 12 jumping the gun and adding AAC Schools Cincinatti, UCF and Houston, while still flirting heavily with PAC Schools like Arizona and Colorado, exactly how many spots on their lifeboat can they offer when The ACC starts taking on water?

The B1G and SEC are at 16 Teams. Can either squeeze enough revenue out of their TV Partners to keep their current members whole if one of the new additions is not ND as a full member? I suppose we could see a situation where each of the 3 surviving conferences goes to 20-24 teams, but that is a huge gamble to take for certain teams right now versus trying to maintain the status quo for another decade. If you are GT, Duke, Pitt, Cuse, WF, or BC are you comfortable with voting yes on dissolution? Are you confident that you have a seat at the next table?

I think the latest deals, especially with basketball and the NFL, by the Big 12 shows that they definitely didn't jump the gun on adding Cincinnati, UCF and Houston. I know you stubbornly refuse to believe that but the Big 12 doesn't get their new TV deal by staying at 8. And they don't get it by just adding Pac-12 schools because part of the reason the AAC schools were added was because of their eastern markets. The fact that they won't pay for the Pac-12 right now shows you that.

 

[Bobol]

I am content that UConn is back in the Big East.

 

[Kolumbo]

If I'm not mistaken The ACC would need 10 Teams (including ND) to vote yes on dissolution in order to break up the conference. With the Big 12 jumping the gun and adding AAC Schools Cincinatti, UCF and Houston, while still flirting heavily with PAC Schools like Arizona and Colorado, exactly how many spots on their lifeboat can they offer when The ACC starts taking on water?

The B1G and SEC are at 16 Teams. Can either squeeze enough revenue out of their TV Partners to keep their current members whole if one of the new additions is not ND as a full member? I suppose we could see a situation where each of the 3 surviving conferences goes to 20-24 teams, but that is a huge gamble to take for certain teams right now versus trying to maintain the status quo for another decade. If you are GT, Duke, Pitt, Cuse, WF, or BC are you comfortable with voting yes on dissolution? Are you confident that you have a seat at the next table?

It seems clear that the B1G and SEC are in a battle for surpremacy so I think it depends how much one wants to trump the other. If it means getting the prime rib off the ACC carcass, then maybe they will sacrifice some short-term profits. The PAC and ACC cash will go to the remaining P3 in one form or another. I don't know but seems logical. Regarding GT, Duke, Pitt, Cuse etc. I think heck yeah, a couple two or tree of them would jump at the Big 12 if they think they could work a deal or be relegated to G5 status if they don't work a deal.