Torvik Numbers since 1/17/2024 (Clingan's Return)

[BlueMAB]

We'll beat them 187-0?

FIFY

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

I don’t know what the advanced numbers are calculating, but Alabama has the #12 offense in 2P FG%, #2 in 3P made, #24 in 3P FG%, 8th in FTs made, and 1st in points.

How is that offense not better than the one who isn’t even top 20 in anything besides points (11th)?

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[superjohn]

They are much longer in the paint too than Illinois on those drives. They have two skilled 6’11 guys and then another two bigs at the size.

My worry is one of the forwards being a bad matchup for Karaban. Especially Nelson. Also how are those drives going to look against Clingan with the extra size. Will they be able to get him in foul trouble? Hope not but we’ll see.

They don't have two skilled 6'11 guys and then two more 6'11 guys. The biggest guy they have who is going to get real minutes in the game is Grant Nelson at 6'10 215. It's going to be a relatively short and thin team out there for them and they are going to try and beat us by jacking up as many threes as possible.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

I don’t know what the advanced numbers are calculating, but Alabama has the #12 offense in 2P FG%, #2 in 3P made, #24 in 3P FG%, 8th in FTs made, and 1st in points.

How is that offense not better than the one who isn’t even top 20 in anything besides points (11th)?

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2023-24 Illinois Fighting Illini Men 's Roster and Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

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I assume it’s because the metrics are adjusted for strength of the opponent and the SEC by and large does not play any defense.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

They don't have two skilled 6'11 guys and then two more 6'11 guys. The biggest guy they have who is going to get real minutes in the game is Grant Nelson at 6'10 215. It's going to be a relatively short and thin team out there for them and they are going to try and beat us by jacking up as many threes as possible.

Pringle, Nelson, Stevenson, and Walters are who I’m talking about. All 6’10 and up. Only Pringle has any real weight on him but everyone else isn’t scared to take a 3.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I assume it’s because the metrics are adjusted for strength of the opponent and the SEC by and large does not play any defense.

Illinois did play the 5th toughest defensive SoS, but Alabama is not too far behind at 17th, which only accounts for about a point.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Illinois did play the 5th toughest defensive SoS, but Alabama is not too far behind at 17th, which only accounts for about a point.

So these advanced numbers REALLY don’t make sense.

There’s no way this Alabama offense is not better than Illinois. Defense, that’s another story.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Illinois did play the 5th toughest defensive SoS, but Alabama is not too far behind at 17th, which only accounts for about a point.

Interesting, would not have guessed their defensive SoS was close to that high.

 

[caw]

One way to control the number of threes they take (thus reducing variance) is by controlling the tempo of the game, which is a bi-product of UConn's offense anyway. Not that UConn won't run, but UConn doesn't rush the half-court offense. It will be interesting to see if they try to slow UConn's offense down (as some teams have tried by pressing to slow the start of UConn's halfcourt dance), or if they try to speed UConn up (which I think maybe only SJU and Marquette have done before).

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Alabama is also 27th in the country in offensive rebounding which will be something to look out for.

I could for sure see the plan being to attack Clingan and then crash the glass while he’s away since they can have two guys who are 6’10 and above on the court at all times. Karaban is going to have to step up BIG.

Illinois had big guards but was relatively small in the post. Alabama is the opposite, at least length wise.

 

[tzznandrew]

That said, I agree that the modal outcome is we win, probably by a comfortable margin in the second half, something like 90-72. But they can win games in the 90s or higher and have, if they get hot.

I think that final score may be close to right. May win by even more.

They got beat by 20 by Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida. When it goes south for them, it goes south. They don't have the fortitude to withstand runs. They jumped out to a lead against Purdue and when Purdue finally caught them it was over.

And it's going to go south.

 

[navery12]

I don’t know what the advanced numbers are calculating, but Alabama has the #12 offense in 2P FG%, #2 in 3P made, #24 in 3P FG%, 8th in FTs made, and 1st in points.

How is that offense not better than the one who isn’t even top 20 in anything besides points (11th)?

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2023-24 Illinois Fighting Illini Men 's Roster and Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

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Have to look at per possession stats because Alabama plays much faster than Illinois on offense (3rd fastest vs 168th). Alabama is still better but it's a lot closer, 1.18 points per possession versus 1.15 for Illinois. But Alabama is above Illinois anyway in offensive efficiency

 

[tzznandrew]

Alabama is also 27th in the country in offensive rebounding which will be something to look out for.

It's because of 3s. But our guards are exceptional rebounders and all have height advantages.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Alabama is also 27th in the country in offensive rebounding which will be something to look out for.

I could for sure see the plan being to attack Clingan and then crash the glass while he’s away since they can have two guys who are 6’10 and above on the court at all times. Karaban is going to have to step up BIG.

Illinois had big guards but was relatively small in the post. Alabama is the opposite, at least length wise.

More I look into this, that’s actually how we were beaten the last time we had a defensive juggernaut in the middle (Thabeet).

Michigan State had 16 offensive rebounds that game. Which was almost double that of anyone else in the tournament. If Karaban comes out the gate not holding his own against Nelson, this might actually be a good game for double bigs.

In general, Alabama is an even better rebounding team than us (18th in the country to our 36th).

 

[superjohn]

Pringle, Nelson, Stevenson, and Walters are who I’m talking about. All 6’10 and up. Only Pringle has any real weight on him but everyone else isn’t scared to take a 3.

Pringle is 6'9, Walters is 6'10 198 lbs.

If any of their "bigs" try and take it in the paint against Clingan it will be the same results Illinois had.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Have to look at per possession stats because Alabama plays much faster than Illinois on offense (3rd fastest vs 168th). Alabama is still better but it's a lot closer, 1.18 points per possession versus 1.15 for Illinois. But Alabama is above Illinois anyway in offensive efficiency

Yeah I’m really looking at the efficiency in which they make their shots.

It's because of 3s. But our guards are exceptional rebounders and all have height advantages.

They take an absurd amount for sure. I hope they stick with that for this game. We have advantage with height at guard, but their 4s are the X factors here because of their length.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Pringle is 6'9, Walters is 6'10 198 lbs.

If any of their "bigs" try and take it in the paint against Clingan it will be the same results Illinois had.

It’s not about them making their attempts, it’s much easier to rebound layups once the center (Clingan) is preoccupied.

ESPN lists Pringle at 6’10 which is where I got that from. Could be wrong.

 

[navery12]

More I look into this, that’s actually how we were beaten the last time we had a defensive juggernaut in the middle (Thabeet).

Michigan State had 16 offensive rebounds that game. Which was almost double that of anyone else in the tournament. If Karaban comes out the gate not holding his own against Nelson, this might actually be a good game for double bigs.

In general, Alabama is an even better rebounding team than us (18th in the country to our 36th).

Who are you putting Clingan on if Karaban is guarding Nelson?

I'm not worried about rebounding, we're going to kill them on the offensive boards. We're 13th in offensive rebounding and they're 272nd in defensive rebounding. And the gap on defense is much smaller, Alabama is 23rd in offensive rebounding and we're 81st, but our guards are great rebounders and should limit the long rebounds off 3's

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Who are you putting Clingan on if Karaban is guarding Nelson?

I'm not worried about rebounding, we're going to kill them on the offensive boards. We're 13th in offensive rebounding and they're 272nd in defensive rebounding. And the gap on defense is much smaller, Alabama is 23rd in offensive rebounding and we're 81st, but our guards are great rebounders and should limit the long rebounds off 3's

Pringle started for them last game and doesn’t attempt 3s from my box score look.

Where did you see 13th? We’re in the 70s according to this.

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Don’t think we lose this (my money literally says otherwise), that’s just what I’m worried with as is.

I’m not too worried about us running guys off the 3 point line.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Speaking of the metrics, while we dissect our opponents' weaknesses and capabilities, let's just briefly marvel at the fact that we are now currently 4 points in KenPom adjusted total efficiency ahead of the field, which is ludicrous.

In recent memory, only 2018 Villanova accomplished this feat, and our absolute efficiency margin is surpassed only by 2021 Gonzaga and 2015 Kentucky in the last 10 years.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I think that final score may be close to right. May win by even more.

They got beat by 20 by Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida. When it goes south for them, it goes south. They don't have the fortitude to withstand runs. They jumped out to a lead against Purdue and when Purdue finally caught them it was over.

And it's going to go south.

I agree that, if offered, I would take like a 5:1 bet on UConn -24.5. The wheels can very easily fall off for Alabama like they did for Illinois if shots aren't falling (for Bama it would be at the 3-point line, for Illinois it was at the rim).

But the fact that a historic blowout is plausible does not mean that losing is implausible.

 

[navery12]

Pringle started for them last game and doesn’t attempt 3s from my box score look.

Where did you see 13th? We’re in the 70s according to this.

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Don’t think we lose this (my money literally says otherwise), that’s just what I’m worried with as is.

I’m not too worried about us running guys off the 3 point line.

Can't look at raw stats, UConn plays much slower than Alabama so the total numbers are always going to be lower. We're 13th in offensive rebounding percentage, we are an elite offensive rebounding team

 

[superjohn]

It’s not about them making their attempts, it’s much easier to rebound layups once the center (Clingan) is preoccupied.

ESPN lists Pringle at 6’10 which is where I got that from. Could be wrong.

I was responding to your post about their size and them being much longer in the paint on their drives than Illinois. I believe they'll get destroyed by Clingan if they look to attack in the paint.

Now you're talking about them shooting threes and long rebounds. That's what I was trying to explain with my initial post. Bama is going to be chucking threes like crazy because that's the only chance they have.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

I agree that, if offered, I would take like a 5:1 bet on UConn -24.5. The wheels can very easily fall off for Alabama like they did for Illinois if shots aren't falling (for Bama it would be at the 3-point line, for Illinois it was at the rim).

But the fact that a historic blowout is plausible does not mean that losing is implausible.

Bet365 lets you bet Bama points down to 57.5 for +1200 fwiw.

 

[caw]

Can't look at raw stats, UConn plays much slower than Alabama so the total numbers are always going to be lower. We're 13th in offensive rebounding percentage, we are an elite offensive rebounding team

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They aren’t far behind on the OBoards at mid. 20s IIRC.