Second Free Throw - Do You Miss on Purpose

[YearoftheHusky]

Been speculating about this internally since last night. At that time I thought it would make a lot of sense to intentionally miss that free-throw given Syracuse has no timeouts left.

Instead we make it and they are able to set up a play. Obviously it worked for the good guys, but I keep thinking that the right call would've been to miss on purpose.

They likely would have had a full-court heave and that would not of made a difference if we were up one or two points.

What are your thoughts?

 

[alfonse]

I would miss it. Impossible to set up any kind of play if they miss, basically a heave with about a .001 % chance of success

 

[Henry]

I prefer simple. Too many times coaches feel the need to be a genius when all you need to do is lock the other team down for 2.2 seconds. This way they must hit a three. I'm good.

 

[methodology]

It's iffy. There been so many instances of a player trying to miss and he never hits the rim whether it bangs off the backboard or whatever. Then you are up 1 and they are in bounding and what happens if during the full court pass you commit a foul and they sink both you lose by 1.

At least up 2 the only way you lose is by a miracle and you can somewhat live with that

 

[polycom]

Is your team's basketball IQ high or low? If low like our team you have to make both. If it's high you miss it and you trust your team wont foul or do anything crazy.

 

[uconngb]

I was hollering for him to miss it. All he has to do is hit the rim, best Cuse ends up with is a heave from 1/2 or 3/4 court. But we got the right result, so who's to say??

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

If we can't trust our team to make a full court stop with 2 seconds left, then why are we even playing basketball.
When you really weigh it out, there is more risk attempting to deliberately miss a free throw. Knowing our guys, they could easily airball it or whatever. Just hit both and make a 2.2 second defensive stop, not that difficult. The chances they hit a miracle 3 are very low.

 

[elmcityboy]

i think in this situation, he had to go for it. the way uconn has been shotting ft's, we had a ~40% chance of missing anyway.

someone brought this up on another thread, but what happens if he purposefully misses and ends up missing the rim entirely? then it's 2.2 seconds with a one-point lead. that's a lot scarier!

 

[dennismenace]

Speaking of free throws. Our team free throw percentage is .612 vs. .792 last year (led the country I think).
Last night KF (1-4), SE (0-2) AB (0-2) = 1-8. AB is shooting 50% this year vs. 82.4 % last year and just looks terrible;
like he is just throwing it up there. Time to get that free throw drill going again. This can be fixed as in the past. Drills
build focus and confidence.

 

[Yankees32123]

You try to make it there, especially considering our poor free throw shooting to that point and the risk that he airballs it.

 

[methodology]

Speaking of free throws. Our team free throw percentage is .612 vs. .792 last year (led the country I think).
Last night KF (1-4), SE (0-2) AB (0-2) = 1-8. AB is shooting 50% this year vs. 82.4 % last year and just looks terrible;
like he is just throwing it up there. Time to get that free throw drill going again. This can be fixed as in the past. Drills
build focus and confidence.

Trust me the whole team practices free throws every practice. They probably shoot them well during practice also

 

[mauconnfan]

Good question for sure, was thinking the same thing. No right answer although I'm of the thought make it and set up smart defense and pray. I don't like the purposeful miss, where does the bounce go when trying to miss, does someone foul in scrambling mode? I would've been good with either strategy but I like the choice. Especially today!

 

[Fishy]

Just make the free throw.

There's a better chance of us accidentally fouling someone in the open court and sending them to the line for two than there is of them getting any sort of decent shot.

 

[Sky ball]

The way they hit FT's Ollie would have told him to make it if he wanted him to miss. It's a win - win!

 

[champs99and04]

Practically, you miss it. You definitely miss it.

But with the way that game went, it's tough to complain too much about it. Nobody in the building thought Syracuse was going to accomplish anything with two seconds, and as anticipated, they panicked and air-mailed the ball down the court rather than executing anything.

If it's the NBA then Ollie should take heat for that, but the guy who said there was as good a chance as us fouling as there was them doing anything with two seconds is probably right. That was one of those games where a team is much more likely to lose it than they are to win it.

 

[Palatine]

If you can miss, you should. Clock starts when the ball hits the rim. Have a couple of guys in the lane. The rebound likely goes to one of their big guys. Let them get the rebound and get between them and our basket. No time to pass so a forward is throwing from 90 feet away.

 

[8893]

Yes, you rocket it off the front rim so it comes directly back to you, and then you make the jumper for two points instead of one. No brainer.

 

[Yawin4Heisman]

you absolutely miss it... I can't understand any of the logic on this thread whatsoever... this isn't even a debate

1) what if he airballs it? well - they inbound it like they were able to anyway due to the make - and this more than likely results in an opportunity to shoot a 3 and not a 2 - if you're able to get a shot off at all - in which case they beat us by 2 instead of 1... so in other words not a big change in the odds of winning the game... and this conveniently ignores the likelihood of airballing the foul shot even if you're trying to miss is practically zero... I've seen guys miss the rim in those situations (same violation as an airball) while trying to miss intentionally but it's almost always a case of bouncing it too hard off the backboard in a situation where you're looking for an offensive board to tie it up

2) what if we foul in the open court / what if we foul in general... trying to be polite here but how on earth would this even conceivably happen - consider there were 2.2 seconds left and we took everyone out from under the hoop - rightfully so - Cuse would then have corralled the rebound (with no one even there to contest them for the board or possibly commit a foul) and been forced to immediately heave up a full court shot after one or 2 dribbles - they had 4 guys under the hoop - no time to advance the ball up court and would have just been forced to throw up a full court heave... in fact if you're concerned with fouling the odds of us committing a foul skyrocketed with the second made FT since there actually became a chance we'd foul a set OOB play vs a next to zero % chance of fouling under the rim given we had no one there and would have had 5 guys at midcourt staring at them taking a full court heave...

you absolutely tell Vital to miss long taking a regular stroke from the line (not firing off the backboard like in an offensive rebounding scenario) and then tell him to get as far away from the rebound as possible (you don't want him contesting the rebound or subsequent shot at all obviously)... you call a timeout (believe we had one or 2 left) just to drill this in his head after which the "execution risk" should be next to zero... now look if it goes in anyway it goes in but you do not tell him to make it... the odds of Cuse winning on a miss are probably around 1%... the odds of Cuse winning after a make there have got to be north of 5%, maybe closer to 10%... it's unbelievable to me that you would not do something in that spot (with the timeout - unless I'm wrong on this) to improve expected outcomes by that degree... anyone arguing this needs a refresher in probability theory with all due respect or just hasn't thought this one through enough given the specific details of the situation...

 

[Excalibur]

If you can miss, you should. Clock starts when the ball hits the rim.

Clock starts on the rebound . . .

 

[willie99]

They're almost certain to be shooting a three regardless. So I think it makes sense to have a live ball under your rim and a full court heave as opposed to allowing them an opportunity to run a play and get a good shot off

Easy decision, miss

 

[Excalibur]

you absolutely miss it... I can't understand any of the logic on this thread whatsoever... this isn't even a debate

1) what if he airballs it? well - they inbound it like they were able to anyway due to the make - and this more than likely results in an opportunity to shoot a 3 and not a 2 - if you're able to get a shot off at all - in which case they beat us by 2 instead of 1... so in other words not a big change in the odds of winning the game... and this conveniently ignores the likelihood of airballing the foul shot even if you're trying to miss is practically zero... I've seen guys miss the rim in those situations (same violation as an airball) while trying to miss intentionally but it's almost always a case of bouncing it too hard off the backboard in a situation where you're looking for an offensive board to tie it up

2) what if we foul in the open court / what if we foul in general... trying to be polite here but how on earth would this even conceivably happen - consider there were 2.2 seconds left and we took everyone out from under the hoop - rightfully so - Cuse would then have corralled the rebound (with no one even there to contest them for the board or possibly commit a foul) and been forced to immediately heave up a full court shot after one or 2 dribbles - they had 4 guys under the hoop - no time to advance the ball up court and would have just been forced to throw up a full court heave... in fact if you're concerned with fouling the odds of us committing a foul skyrocketed with the second made FT since there actually became a chance we'd foul a set OOB play vs a next to zero % chance of fouling under the rim given we had no one there and would have had 5 guys at midcourt staring at them taking a full court heave...

you absolutely tell Vital to miss long taking a regular stroke from the line (not firing off the backboard like in an offensive rebounding scenario) and then tell him to get as far away from the rebound as possible (you don't want him contesting the rebound or subsequent shot at all obviously)... you call a timeout (believe we had one or 2 left) just to drill this in his head after which the "execution risk" should be next to zero... now look if it goes in anyway it goes in but you do not tell him to make it... the odds of Cuse winning on a miss are probably around 1%... the odds of Cuse winning after a make there have got to be north of 5%, maybe closer to 10%... it's unbelievable to me that you would not do something in that spot (with the timeout - unless I'm wrong on this) to improve expected outcomes by that degree... anyone arguing this needs a refresher in probability theory with all due respect or just hasn't thought this one through enough given the specific details of the situation...

The probabilities are all so low that you instead should be looking to eliminate the worst-case scenario, which is failing to hit the rim and then either giving up a hoop or fouling on the inbound.

 

[CL82]

If we can't trust our team to make a full court stop with 2 seconds left, then why are we even playing basketball.

 

[Yawin4Heisman]

The probabilities are all so low that you instead should be looking to eliminate the worst-case scenario, which is failing to hit the rim and then either giving up a hoop or fouling on the inbound.

first - I don't accept your premise for a number of reasons (you need to just look at the probabilities for winning vs losing the game based on the two outcomes - and doing something which increases your chances of losing by 6 or 7 times is not meaningless in my opinion)

second - Let's assume I did - how would not instructing a player to miss long (which is what I said the timeout should be used to instruct the player to do) not also decrease the odds of an airball (the worst case scenario you want to avoid)... aiming at the back of the rim would almost certainly decrease the likelihood of an airball vs aiming for the middle of the hoop...

 

[HooperScooper]

I was at the game and during the timeout before the free throws we were debating this very subject. Our group was split down the middle. I was one who thought miss it on purpose. Pretty hard to gather the rebound, turn, and do anything productive. Then again there is another coach in the AAC who thinks it's impossible to inbound the ball and shoot in 0.8 seconds so I guess anything is possible.

 

[Yawin4Heisman]

anecdotally, most of those sitting directly around me last night (all UConn fans) basically had a wtf reaction when the 2nd one went in - me and my buddies all assumed he'd miss it - and at least one Cuse fan nearby stopped going on their rant about the foul and then suddenly perked up most likely thinking to themselves "thanks a bunch for that gift, now we have at least a chance for a shot to win"... thankfully that optimism was short lived since it was a rushed inbounds that never had a chance... doesn't mean I'll use results based reasoning to call it a smart decision...