Monday's Bracketology and Explanation

[UConnCat]

Yes, but as crazy as it sounds the committee was ignorant of that fact, as the post bracket show interview revealed.

Yes, one of the more bizarre selection show conference calls.

Chair Maryalyce Jeremiah: "Notre Dame won the conference. . . UConn won the conference tournament... week in and week out UConn didn't win the conference."

Courant's Lori Riley: "Actually, Notre Dame and UConn tied for the Big East regular season title."

Silence.

 

[DobbsRover2]

I do not understand why anyone from UCONN would prefer to go to Lincoln and face the the unknown when you know what Louisville offers and you know that you can beat them. If the games had been close I could see you not wanting to play them again, but if Baylor beat a team three times by an average of 20 points, I would be praying to be sent to play them again.

Watch what you wish for because there are several teams that are better than UL (SCar, WVU, Baylor, Kentucky) that you might have to play. If I were UCONN, I would MUCH rather play UL again than meet up with S. Carolina!

Yep, Baylor was cackling up a storm when they saw they only got that poor perimeter shooting team Louisville for their likely third-round opponent. And this year when the Cards are shooting way better out there than both last year's team and this year's Baylor team, why of course you'd rather play them even more. Makes perfect sense I guess if you're from Waco. But never let the facts get in the way of an opinion.

And back in 2011, UConn averaged 11 point margins over ND in the first three encounters, but the fourth time was not a charm.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Baylor didn't like it when A&M was in their Bracket 2010/11 and UConn won't like it this year if Louisville is in the bracket. As A&M proved in 2011 its hard to beat a good team four times. Baylor beat A&M 3 times during conference play and tournament, only to lose to A&M for the right to go to the Final Four. How about last year, when ND beat UConn three times and then lost to UConn at the Final Four. I'm sure ND would have preferred to not have to face UConn to get to the National Championship game.

I do not understand why anyone from UCONN would prefer to go to Lincoln and face the the unknown when you know what Louisville offers and you know that you can beat them. If the games had been close I could see you not wanting to play them again, but if Baylor beat a team three times by an average of 20 points, I would be praying to be sent to play them again.

Watch what you wish for because there are several teams that are better than UL (SCar, WVU, Baylor, Kentucky) that you might have to play. If I were UCONN, I would MUCH rather play UL again than meet up with S. Carolina!

 

[easttexastrash]

A week or so ago you said that UConn would beat Notre Dame by 30, so why do you think that UNC is roughly 10 points better than the Irish? Or is it just that you think UConn matches up very well against Notre Dame but UNC would give them more difficulty?

One possible scenario would be UConn going to Louisville and Louisville getting a 3 seed. That would allow the committee to make Tenn the top 2 (which is what they are) and send them to face Louisville in the S16. The hoopla over a possible CT UT game would drown out any complaining about the home court advantage. Except for Tenn fans who will scream bloody murder.

A question on another issue. Why is S Carolina dismissed for losing in their tournament while Stanford is still being given a 1 seed? I agree that SC had a weak OOC schedule but Stanford's OOC only has a home win against Tenn to brag about, and IMO an even weaker conference schedule. In 2001, the committee chairwoman clearly stated that the committee values winning a regular season title over the conference tournament. (ND - CT)

ESPN is going to promote Tenn over SC all day long, not because of BB superiority, but because of ratings.

I still say that the B12T winner, being a dual conference champion, will get a 1 seed. Maybe even over Stanford but definitely over Tenn.

In their defense they do have the #3 RPI and # 15 SOS with 10 top-50 RIP wins. S Carolina is #8 RPI with a SOS of 25.

 

[easttexastrash]

Baylor didn't like it when A&M was in their Bracket 2010/11 and UConn won't like it this year if Louisville is in the bracket. As A&M proved in 2011 its hard to beat a good team four times. Baylor beat A&M 3 times during conference play and tournament, only to lose to A&M for the right to go to the Final Four. How about last year, when ND beat UConn three times and then lost to UConn at the Final Four. I'm sure ND would have preferred to not have to face UConn to get to the National Championship game.

The difference is that the Baylor vs TAMU games were close, as were the UCONN vs. ND games last year, which is why I made the point about the average winning margain of 20 points. Everyone is acting like going to Lousiville would be like going to play the Miami Heat.

Louisville is soooooo far from equal to UCONN in talent that the situation is completely different than the two examples you used. UCONN being sent to Louisville is as close to a guarantee as you can get of making it to the FF. If you think you would rather face S. Carolina than Louisville, I have some ocean front property in Arizona I would like to discuss with you.

 

[DobbsRover2]

The difference is that the Baylor vs TAMU games were close, which is why I made the point about the average winning margain of 20 points.

Louisville is soooooo far from equal to UCONN in talent that the situation is completely different than the two examples you used. UCONN being sent to Louisville is as close to a guarantee as you can get of making it to the FF. If you think you would rather face S. Carolina than Louisville, I have some ocean front property in Arizona I would like to discuss with you.

And last year's Baylor and Louisville were sooooo far from equal in talent that no type of problems for the favored team could erupt, I suppose? Whether it's 3, 11, or 20 average margins, the fact is no team has ever beaten another four times in the same year, so it's just not something you want to face.

 

[BlueDevils]

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Charlie Creme Column: http://espn.go.com/womens-college-b...hip-week-produces-plenty-bracketology-changes

Stanford still have the easiest bracket. Duke may have played ND tough, but no way are they competitive enough to reach the Final Four, never mind the elite 8.

While I think Geno's team is too strong defensively, don't like North Carolina in the bracket. They're a dangerous 4 seed.

Obviously you didn't watch Duke the entire ACC tournament if you aren't giving them any chance of making the elite eight. Losing both point guards has Duke playing much better defensive, and Elizabeth is playing like the 2nd best center in the league. You're going to have to shoot the ball well against the matchup zone, which can have 4 6"3 players at a time" and beat them in transition to defeat Duke. Kentucky's press can cause Duke troubles, but I don't think they can score consistently when you slow them down. IMHO, Duke is better than Stanford even without Alexis Jones and Chelsea Gray. Bottom line if Duke is not in either Uconn or Notre Dame bracket they have a very realistic chance at making the Final Four.

 

[BlueDevils]

In that "dangerous" UNC team you're talking about... Duke held them to 33% from the floor 3 days ago.

 

[triaddukefan]

Obviously you didn't watch Duke the entire ACC tournament if you aren't giving them any chance of making the elite eight. Losing both point guards has Duke playing much better defensive, and Elizabeth is playing like the 2nd best center in the league. You're going to have to shoot the ball well against the matchup zone, which can have 4 6"3 players at a time" and beat them in transition to defeat Duke. Kentucky's press can cause Duke troubles, but I don't think they can score consistently when you slow them down. IMHO, Duke is better than Stanford even without Alexis Jones and Chelsea Gray. Bottom line if Duke is not in either Uconn or Notre Dame bracket they have a very realistic chance at making the Final Four.

So you are saying Gatling is the best center... or Howard (FSU)

In that "dangerous" UNC team you're talking about... Duke held them to 33% from the floor 3 days ago.

Thats what makes them dangerous.... they might shoot 33% one game... and 60% the next

 

[BlueDevils]

So you are saying Gatling is the best center... or Howard (FSU)



Thats what makes them dangerous.... they might shoot 33% one game... and 60% the next

Liz is the best center in the ACC, after that my order would be Notre Dame Center, Howard, then Gatling... WOW the Acc has some good centers. Dolson is the only center I would rank ahead of Liz.

The point I was trying to make is that Duke defensive has stepped up. They shot a better fg% then each one of their opponents in the ACC tourny.

 

[UConnCat]

Liz is the best center in the ACC, after that my order would be Notre Dame Center, Howard, then Gatling... WOW the Acc has some good centers. Dolson is the only center I would rank ahead of Liz.

The point I was trying to make is that Duke defensive has stepped up. They shot a better fg% then each one of their opponents in the ACC tourny.

I thought Duke's interior defense was better in the ACC tournament than it has been in the recent past, largely because of the improved play of Williams. But the top of the zone is actually slower at closing on shooters than it was before the injuries, and it wasn't that good to begin with. The reality is that jump shots are tougher to make in the post-season particularly for a young, undisciplined team like Carolina that just kept jacking up shots. Better teams will find the weak spots in Duke's zone (and there are many) and eventually make open shots. Plus, without Jones and Gray, Duke is limited to playing zone almost exclusively which is not ideal. Still, I think Duke's biggest concern as it moves on in the tournament will be putting points on the board which is why I'd be shocked if Duke made the FF.

 

[robert]

louisville should be 1 in louisville region while tenn shld be 2 in louisville region....louisville is #3 higher rank than tenn,uconn huskies shld go to lincoln region...

 

[easttexastrash]

louisville should be 1 in louisville region while tenn shld be 2 in louisville region....louisville is #3 higher rank than tenn,uconn huskies shld go to lincoln region...

UT won their conference tourney, has the number 4 SOS and #5 RPI and wins over 12 top 50 RPI teams.

UL will not win their conference, has the #72 SOS and #7 RPI and 1 win over a top 20 RPI team (#13 LSU) and one over a top 50 RIP team (#38 Florida State).

Now, look at that and justify Louisville as being a 1 seed over UT. I am not saying that UCONN should not go to Lincoln, but Louisville certainly has NOT earned a #1 seed over UT.

 

[BlueDevils]

UT won their conference tourney, has the number 4 SOS and #5 RPI and wins over 12 top 50 RPI teams.

UL will not win their conference, has the #72 SOS and #7 RPI and 1 win over a top 20 RPI team (#12 Kentucky) and one top 50 RIP team (#38 Florida State).

Now, look at that and justify Louisville as being a 1 seed over UT.

Please keep schooling them lol

 

[BlueDevils]

I thought Duke's interior defense was better in the ACC tournament than it has been in the recent past, largely because of the improved play of Williams. But the top of the zone is actually slower at closing on shooters than it was before the injuries, and it wasn't that good to begin with. The reality is that jump shots are tougher to make in the post-season particularly for a young, undisciplined team like Carolina that just kept jacking up shots. Better teams will find the weak spots in Duke's zone (and there are many) and eventually make open shots. Plus, without Jones and Gray, Duke is limited to playing zone almost exclusively which is not ideal. Still, I think Duke's biggest concern as it moves on in the tournament will be putting points on the board which is why I'd be shocked if Duke made the FF.

Very good analysis on Duke's zone specifically the top of it which is pretty slow, but the point was if the brackets stayed put Duke still has a realistic shot at making the elite eight, and even the final four. Duke typically only struggles on offense against two teams... I doubt Kentucky could hold Tricia Liston under 10 points IMHO. Liston scored 28 points against Kentucky earlier this season, and she got most of her points by scoring inside on their smaller defenders. If Duke were to play Stanford in the elite eight I'll be very upset with a loss.

 

[UConnCat]

Very good analysis on Duke's zone specifically the top of it which is pretty slow, but the point was if the brackets stayed put Duke still has a realistic shot at making the elite eight, and even the final four. Duke typically only struggles on offense against two teams... I doubt Kentucky could hold Tricia Liston under 10 points IMHO. Liston scored 28 points against Kentucky earlier this season, and she got most of her points by scoring inside on their smaller defenders. If Duke were to play Stanford in the elite eight I'll be very upset with a loss.

I hope you're right. I'm pulling for Duke's seniors. They've been through a lot and deserve some success.

 

[easttexastrash]

louisville should be 1 in louisville region while tenn shld be 2 in louisville region....louisville is #3 higher rank than tenn,uconn huskies shld go to lincoln region...

As far as that goes, Baylor has 8 top 50 RPI wins, and could have 9 after tonight. If Baylor wins tonight they should be the top 2 seed, as I think UT is the most deserving of the 4th number 1 seed. I suspect that Baylor and UT will match up in Lincoln and that WVU will be sent to either Stanford or ND. The 2 seeds will be WVU, Baylor, Louisville and Duke/USC, with Duke getting my vote based on their "bear" of a schedule. I might actually slide Louisville to a 3 as I think S. Carolina AND Duke are more deserving of a 2 seed, than Louisville.

Top 50 Wins
Baylor: 8 (possibly 9 after tonight)
Louisville: 2

RPI
Louisville: 7
Baylor: 9

SOS
Baylor: 41
Louisville: 72

A case can certainly be made for Baylor over Louisville, as well.

 

[easttexastrash]

Please keep schooling them lol

I just don't understand this desiere to put Louisville as a 1 seed when they have done NOTHING to EARN the seeding. The committee has a history of rewarding teams that have beaten other good teams. There are many schools who have done that and Louisville simply has not. It's all about perception to many. UCONN has beaten Louisville by an average of 23.3 points the last three times that they have played. And that screams 1 seed for Louisville to anyone?

 

[triaddukefan]

Very good analysis on Duke's zone specifically the top of it which is pretty slow, but the point was if the brackets stayed put Duke still has a realistic shot at making the elite eight, and even the final four. Duke typically only struggles on offense against two teams... I doubt Kentucky could hold Tricia Liston under 10 points IMHO. Liston scored 28 points against Kentucky earlier this season, and she got most of her points by scoring inside on their smaller defenders. If Duke were to play Stanford in the elite eight I'll be very upset with a loss.

Hey, she didnt get that title under her name for nothing

 

[easttexastrash]

Hey, she didnt get that title under her name for nothing

I have to say that the Duke performances this past week were really nice surprises. It was such bad luck to lose players the way Duke did but to hang tough and put in such a good showing is worthy of my respect. I hope they have a good showing in the tourney, unless they play Baylor.

 

[easttexastrash]

As far as that goes, Baylor has 8 top 50 RPI wins, and could have 9 after tonight. If Baylor wins tonight they should be the top 2 seed, as I think UT is the most deserving of the 4th number 1 seed. I suspect that Baylor and UT will match up in Lincoln and that WVU will be sent to either Stanford or ND. The 2 seeds will be WVU, Baylor, Louisville and Duke/USC, with Duke getting my vote based on their "bear" of a schedule. I might actually slide Louisville to a 3 as I think S. Carolina AND Duke are more deserving of a 2 seed, than Louisville.

Top 50 Wins
Baylor: 8 (possibly 9 after tonight)
Louisville: 2

RPI
Louisville: 7
Baylor: 9

SOS
Baylor: 41
Louisville: 72

A case can certainly be made for Baylor over Louisville, as well.

I have now convinced myself that Louisville should be a 3 seed...no higher than 3, and the lowest 3 seed, at that. Teams that I put ahead of them:

• UCONN
• Notre Dame
• Tennessee
• Stanford
• Duke
• WVU
• Baylor
• South Carolina
• Kentucky
• Maryland
• North Carolina

 

[BlueDevils]

I just don't understand this desiere to put Louisville as a 1 seed when they have done NOTHING to EARN the seeding. The committee has a history of rewarding teams that have beaten other good teams. There are many schools who have done that and Louisville simply has not. It's all about perception to many. UCONN has beaten Louisville by an average of 23.3 points the last three times that they have played. And that screams 1 seed for Louisville to anyone?

ONLY because Uconn FANS don't want to see them play Louisville a 4th time to get to the Final Four. Hell if Duke beat a team 3 times already by an average of 20+ I'll be for beating them again. There's nothing that can convince me Louisville should be a number one seed other then beating Uconn tonight.

 

[easttexastrash]

ONLY because Uconn FANS don't want to see them play Louisville a 4th time to get to the Final Four. Hell if Duke beat a team 3 times already by an average of 20+ I'll be for beating them again. There's nothing that can convince me Louisville should be a number one seed other then beating Uconn tonight.

I'm not even convinced that they should be a two seed. I would put Duke ahead of Louisville since Louisville hasn't proven anything to me other than a decent win over LSU and then a win over #38 FSU.

 

[triaddukefan]

I have to say that the Duke performances this past week were really nice surprises. It was such bad luck to lose players the way Duke did but to hang tough and put in such a good showing is worthy of my respect. I hope they have a good showing in the tourney, unless they play Baylor.

Heck, I was surprised as well. I went to senior night, and saw our performance vs Wake Forest and was Honestly thought we would lose the regular season finale @ UNC by 20+, lose the opening round game in the ACC's, and winning maybe one game max in the NCAAs. Well obviously I was wrong on the first two, and I think we should advance to the Sweet 16 at least

 

[Alydar]

Top 50 RPI wins is nice to compare 2 bubble teams but when the topic is who is a 1 seed you need to look at how they play against the top 10 , and in that Tenn is weak.

These are the 25th-50th RPI teams:

2525SyracuseAtlantic Coast22-96-54- 112-30-0
2626Bowling GreenMid-American27-311-23- 113-00-0
2728CaliforniaPac-1221-98-32- 211-40-0
2827Oklahoma St.Big 1223-85-44- 114-30-0
2931St. John's (NY)Big East21-98-52- 011-40-0
3029DePaulBig East25-68-44- 013-20-0
3130Michigan St.Big Ten22-98-42- 212-30-0
3233Arizona St.Pac-1222-95-73- 114-10-0
3332Oregon St.Pac-1223-106-53- 413-11-0
3443FordhamAtlantic 1025-77-64- 014-10-0
3534Central Mich.Mid-American20-108-81- 211-00-0
3640Southern CaliforniaPac-1222-128-56- 18-60-0
3736Southern Miss.Conference USA24-57-40- 015-12-0
3835Georgia TechAtlantic Coast20-115-54- 211-40-0
3937Florida St.Atlantic Coast20-118-52- 110-50-0
4039BYUWest Coast25-511-31- 013-20-0
4138Iowa St.Big 1220-107-42- 111-50-0
4241South Dakota St.Summit22-87-61- 214-00-0
4342VanderbiltSoutheastern18-126-60- 112-50-0
4444MinnesotaBig Ten20-124-73- 113-40-0
4547MaristMetro Atlantic26-611-35- 010-30-0
4649ChattanoogaSouthern28-312-23- 113-00-0
4748St. Mary's (CA)West Coast22-88-61- 013-20-0
4846GeorgiaSoutheastern20-113-82- 115-20-0
4950James MadisonColonial25-511-22- 212-10-0
5045VillanovaBig East22-811-33- 18-40-0


http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-rpi

Would anyone realistically base a 1 seed decision on victories against these teams?