Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[Ha Who]

Exactly. Even the apple deal dwarfs our BE money.

Sure, after the Big grabs teams. Okay I’ll drink your Kool-Aid

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Remember about a week and a half ago when I said that the theory that the Pac 12 would lose one team and then add UConn and we would live happily ever after was insane? Probably not, because you and the rest of this board were busy gargling the marbles of the Kansas fanboy who was pretending to be an insider.

I will give you something else to remember: Utah, ASU, UA and Colorado will regret turning down Apple to hop on the ESPN train that is going over a cliff.

Cable boxes will die. I remember a meeting in late winter 1998 (at one of the larger cable companies in the country) being told by them that cable boxes would die, their time frame then was 8-12 years (but at the time they had no idea that Williams Communication was a farce while claiming to build fiber optic infrastructure throughout the US).

We are more than twice that far out and we are still close to a decade from the ultimate death of cable boxes. The current technology us still lacking and the infrastructure is not yet capable of supporting streaming only television service. A broadcast deal with a streaming provider like Apple will, in time be an exceptional way to go for a conference, both financially and in distribution. Today it isn't there yet.

 

[Ha Who]

Arizona, ASU, and Utah are going to get paid $32 million a year in a stable conference. Apple was only offering $20 million a year to stay in an unstable conference. Isn't this decision a no-brainer?

Now I want your Kool-Aid of logic

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Arizona, ASU, and Utah are going to get paid $32 million a year in a stable conference. Apple was only offering $20 million a year to stay in an unstable conference. Isn't this decision a no-brainer?

This depends on the timeline of the B1G taking more PAC schools.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Is adding schools a material change to the the ACC agreement thereby allowing FSU and Clemson to bolt?

No. But ACC would need to talk to ESPN, and possibly get more money.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Arizona, ASU, and Utah are going to get paid $32 million a year in a stable conference. Apple was only offering $20 million a year to stay in an unstable conference. Isn't this decision a no-brainer?

The Big 12 contract does not reach $32MM/year for several years, and Apple's deal was starting at $20MM before any linear deal, and there were subscription incentives which could have made the contracts equivalent or the Apple contract better.

ESPN is going to lose its butt on this big guarantee linear contracts as the cable industry continues to collapse. Maybe ESPN sticks by these deals, or maybe ESPN, as a division of a publicly traded company, has to come back and renegotiate these deals in a few years. Apple is Apple, and is going to win. Those schools backed the wrong horse.

 

[JMick]

No. But ACC would need to talk to ESPN, and possibly get more money.

The only way the ACC sticks together at this point is if they can get ND on board by bringing in Stanford. So we are screwed there too.

 

[mike012]

I had figured Apple would make a lucrative offer to keep the Pac around. So that Apple could get football and prove Apple TV works for future conferences and sports to see.

 

[XStorrsion]

For the record, the scenario I laid out yesterday is still in play. UConn, Cal, Stanford to the ACC.

This group isn't fending off the pillagers (B1G, SEC, XII) by adding two California schools that none of those conferences wanted.

Map for emphasis of how much of a misfit it would be to add them three time zones away.

 

[aburks41]

Zags just reported the Big 12 is voting on ASU and Utah today

 

[upstater]

No. But ACC would need to talk to ESPN, and possibly get more money.

The problem here is that ESPN knows it's already paying a premium for a lot of schools that don't merit it. That's a very tough ask of ESPN.

On the schools' part, most of them know there is a huge danger without that ESPN contract. If it were me, I would take it all the way to 2036. By the time college sports reconfigure, I'd have about 4 more years to find my spot.

So, what I'm saying is that this buys them time. Jumping out of a contract in 2031 can leave them exposed.

Essentially they are telling the SEC and B1G, "Do your worst to us, because you're going to have to wait until 2040 to get your dream of college sports off the ground."

There is no way I vote for ANY dissolution if I'm 2/3rd of the schools in the ACC.

I may end up like Cal and Stanford, granted, but at the very least, I know I won't end up like Cal and Stanford in 2031.

 

[RedStickHusky]

This group isn't fending off the pillagers (B1G, SEC, XII) by adding two California schools that none of those conferences wanted.

Map for emphasis of how much of a misfit it would be to add them three time zones away.

yeah but you could make a nice logo/icon for a "coast-to-coast conference" - think C2C...

 

[JeepCSC]

This group isn't fending off the pillagers (B1G, SEC, XII) by adding two California schools that none of those conferences wanted.

Big XII's GOR ends sooner.

 

[upstater]

Zags just reported the Big 12 is voting on ASU and Utah today

“[Big 12 Commissioner] Brett [Yormark] deserves some credit and [former Commissioner Bob] Bowlsby got those four teams and if you look at it now, it doesn’t seem like the greatest adds, but it stabilized us for a little bit.”

Well, someone had to say it. The amazing thing is looking at the schools that might've said this. TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, Kansas St, Texas Tech, WV, looking down their noses at the additions.

College sports are really lead by some of the most myopic illiterate people out there.

 

[Seamus84]

While I don’t agree with Nelson’s take on NU and Vandy (I have personal experience at both schools), I can see a day when the top academic universities with large endowments and uncertain futures - Stan, UC, Duke, WF, BC, GTech, etc - say enough is enough (reliance of football) and explore another model.

 

[upstater]

This group isn't fending off the pillagers (B1G, SEC, XII) by adding two California schools that none of those conferences wanted.

Map for emphasis of how much of a misfit it would be to add them three time zones away.
View attachment 90348

The B12 isn't going to pillage anyone. The money won't be there.

1st, which of these ACC schools adds value to the SEC and B1G? There are only 4 that do. That means everyone else remains.

But what remains is stronger than the B12.

If I'm the ACC, I'm looking at Kansas and Texas Tech as prime candidates for pillaging myself.

The B12 is roughly where the Pac12 was at several years ago, boasting about their superiority, talking openly about pillaging other conferences. This is where the B12 is at. Schadenfreude coming their way.

 

[Rockford]

Zags just reported the Big 12 is voting on ASU and Utah today

This guy have realignment cred or just another slick blogger / writer? Seems to be a jack of all trades- pro / college.

 

[upstater]

While I don’t agree with Nelson’s take on NU and Vandy (I have personal experience at both schools), I can see a day when the top academic universities with large endowments and uncertain futures - Stan, UC, Duke, WF, BC, GTech, etc - say enough is enough (reliance of football) and explore another model.

The boss move here when the money drives up is to create a 16 team basketball league, maybe one that also has football to a diminished level.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Zags just reported the Big 12 is voting on ASU and Utah today

White flag

 

[buddy]

If I recall correctly, I thought it was posted that ESPN adivsed the Big 12 that UConn should be added if they were to expand again after they took the 3 G5 schools plus BYU. What ever happened to that? I also wonder if the CT government officials have bothered to put any pressure on ESPN at all? In any case, it is really time for the State of CT to look at removing all tax breaks from ESPN.

 

[aburks41]

This guy have realignment cred or just another slick blogger / writer? Seems to be a jack of all trades- pro / college.

Zags is a legit college basketball writer. Not sure how much he'd know on the realignment front, but if he's reporting something, it's true.

 

[aburks41]

If I recall correctly, I thought it was posted that ESPN adivsed the Big 12 that UConn should be added if they were to expand again after they took the 3 G5 schools plus BYU. What ever happened to that? I also wonder if the CT government officials have bothered to put any pressure on ESPN at all? In any case, it is really time for the State of CT to look at removing all tax breaks from ESPN.

I said the bolded part earlier and got mocked for it. Why should the State continue to give these crooks hundreds of millions of dollars in tax breaks when they screw the flagship institution at every step of the way? It's disgusting.

 

[ZooCougar]

If I recall correctly, I thought it was posted that ESPN adivsed the Big 12 that UConn should be added if they were to expand again after they took the 3 G5 schools plus BYU. What ever happened to that? I also wonder if the CT government officials have bothered to put any pressure on ESPN at all? In any case, it is really time for the State of CT to look at removing all tax breaks from ESPN.

What happened to that? Why would they do that when they can raid the PAC 12?

They didn’t do that because the opportunity to kill a conference presented itself.

 

[jostar1]

The guy who does a podcast from the cab of his truck seemed to think an odd number of teams in a conference works. Was it 15 or 17?

That guy said that 17 is one of the magic numbers for scheduling purposes. So I guess if the Big 12 and the media partners wanted it, it could happen. However, all of the talking heads are saying four additions to the Big 12.

 

[ctchamps]

He may have had inside information, and was really in the know. But when asked why UConn had to wait to be invited, he had no answer. So, at that point, it was clear that it was not a certainty. Anyway, he is not wrong yet.

Originally he was emphatic that it was UConn and Colorado but only as a pair. He implied UConn was on board but our fate was dependent on Colorado leaving the PAC. The B12 does not want an odd number of schools. When he got word that Colorado made up its mind he passed that along to us before it became public knowledge.

When Colorado announced last Thursday he confirmed we would be next. I believe within minutes he came back and wrote that an entirely unexpected development happened. U of A which had spurned B12 up until that point contacted the conference with a desire to join. He was the first to pronounce this other than those twitter folks we post in these forums who create every scenario imaginable in their tweets.

He stated a short interval was needed but he was emphatic it was gong to be quick (within two weeks) and Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State and UConn would be the four that joined.

He stated he was not happy Arizona State was going to be included.

He left saying if something in that interval happens which changes that outcome he would come back here and take his lumps.

I suggest anyone who wants to read his messages to us for confirmation of my recollection click on one of his posts and then click “messages” to observe everything he has written.

IMO he has access to the B12 conference or someone with contacts and has kindly passed along information to us throughout this episode.