Jeff Jacobs is being outgunned.

[pj]

If the B12 wanted to survive, it could get properties with growth potential, pay them bargain rates, and maybe rival the ACC and SEC in Florida in 10 years. If not, just continue to pay UCF and USF the low rates. There's a business deal to be had here.

They've already gone with special treatment for Texas, so a multi-tier membership is not the barrier it would be in other conferences.

But it may be that critical members want the conference to dissolve, and are just setting up their legal case and/or milking the conference for money.

 

[amory]

If the B12 wanted to survive, it could get properties with growth potential, pay them bargain rates, and maybe rival the ACC and SEC in Florida in 10 years. If not, just continue to pay UCF and USF the low rates. There's a business deal to be had here.

They've already gone with special treatment for Texas, so a multi-tier membership is not the barrier it would be in other conferences.

But it may be that critical members want the conference to dissolve, and are just setting up their legal case and/or milking the conference for money.

It's definitely possible, maybe even likely that this is the case. But for some reason I don't think it is.

I think Oklahoma and (especially) Texas like being the big fish in a small pond. There's an inferiority complex in the Big 12 that seems to make people (fans, school officials) pretty loyal to at least the idea of the conference.

It's obvious why the flotsam schools feel this way, since they'd likely have nowhere else to go if the Big 12 collapsed. But even on Texas boards you see a ton of people recoil in disgust at the idea of the SEC or even the B1G. And if the endgame is just to ride it out 5-10 more years and then try to fight their way out of the GOR, I find it pretty hard to believe that none of the other schools realize that that's the goal. If they did, there would be a near unanimous call from the underlings for expansion once they realized it was the only way to possibly secure the long term future of the conference.

They're all Texas' bitch for sure, but they can't be that stupid.

 

[Orkney]

They're all Texas' bitch for sure...

If indeed they are all Texas’ bitch, and the situation remains unchanged, inequitable, Texas will be the architect of the Big 12’s destruction.

(Not much panache to a UCF, USF add…)

 

[pj]

Could be.

Texas fans I think just value independence and autonomy; they have that in the B12 with LHN, and that's why I think they end up independent with a ND-like deal with ACC.

Oklahoma I see as preparing for an exit. They have options (SEC and B1G) that are and always will be better than anything they can get from the B12.

Kansas I see as on the fence and exploring. Not a driver of B12 dissolution, but ready to take a spot in B1G, SEC, Pac, or ACC if it looks favorable.

The others want to keep the B12 together, and will appease the major powers to do it.

 

[Orkney]

Kansas I see as on the fence and exploring. Not a driver of B12 dissolution, but ready to take a spot in B1G, SEC, Pac, or ACC if it looks favorable.

If B12 implodes, really can’t see Kansas going anywhere but B1G. Nice fit geographically, AAU member, etc.

 

[dwalks93]

Sadly the B12 does not change easily and has a very myopic view of the conference. Its power programs like UT, OU and to a lesser extend OSU and KU have nothing to worry about. They will land on their feet regardless of the B12. It is more a matter of whether they want their own conference (which may require them to earn less money than they would in the SEC) or to be a part of someone else's conference. Rumors is there are some programs not named UT who are against expansion. It is just amazing these programs do not realize what dangerous water they are in. Apparently no programs ever thinks they will be the one who gets left out or that their conference could implode. I am sure TCU is saying "we've been a top 10 football team the last few years" and Baylor is thinking we are one of the hottest football programs in America. Those are the same kind of statements UConn was saying (we are a top 5 BB program with multiple NCs and we've been carrying the BE) right before we were stabbed in the back. A lot of teams in the B12 have not learned from UConn's plight.

For a lot of vulnerable B12 program's fans bases it is easier to mock UConn and think their situation is somehow different. On B12 boards I constantly hear "Basketball does not matter", "UConn football stinks and all that matters is football", "no one cares about women's basketball", " no one likes college sports in the north", etc... Yet the real truth is UConn athletics won a lot more than most of these schools in a larger media market and still got shut out. WVU has been one of the most vocal advocates in the B12 because they are the only program who has been down this road before....the Big12 should listen to WVU.

The B12 should expand to 14 but I don't think they will. IMO 12 is the most they will consider and that is only if 12 gives them enough to form a network. There is a lot of ego and hubris in the B12 and adding the 4th and 5th tier program in Florida will not be easily accepted. The Big12 will want premier ACC schools like FSU for expansion but FSU is not leaving the ACC for the B12 right now. The Big12 needs to accepts its expansion options are at the G5 level and they need to expand to survive. ACC teams may be available for the B12 in the future but first the Big12 needs to show they are a superior conference to the ACC. IMO the Big12 will go to 12 and leave space for ACC schools in the future.

 

[Marty Jackson]

I'm always surprised at how quickly the tarnish of being a G5 school comes off once you land in a P5 conference.
Rutgers, Pitt, and Syracuse are the perfect example.

 

[CL82]

Does the Big 12 pick up UCF and USF or do they hold out for FSU on the assumption that Big 12's network (assuming that things can be worked out with Texas or otherwise they wouldn't pick up anyone) would be enough to entice the Seminoles to defect?

 

[CallMeBruce]

I'm always surprised at how quickly the tarnish of being a G5 school comes off once you land in a P5 conference.
Rutgers, Pitt, and Syracuse are the perfect example.

They were never really G5 schools, though. Rutgers was for one year when everyone knew they were headed to the B1G. Pitt and Cuse never played in the American at all.

 

[Huskyforlife]

Does the Big 12 pick up UCF and USF or do they hold out for FSU on the assumption that Big 12's network (assuming that things can be worked out with Texas or otherwise they wouldn't pick up anyone) would be enough to entice the Seminoles to defect?

GOR

 

[CL82]

GOR

Rumor that that GOR is contingent upon the formation of an ACC network.

 

[dwalks93]

Does the Big 12 pick up UCF and USF or do they hold out for FSU on the assumption that Big 12's network (assuming that things can be worked out with Texas or otherwise they wouldn't pick up anyone) would be enough to entice the Seminoles to defect?

I always got the feeling FSU was not entirely happy in the ACC. The temper tantrum FSU threw over the UL expansion shows they have had enough of the basketball mentality in the ACC. Moreover, the fact FSU is arguing for a larger share of the ACC revenue pie indicates they do not think the rest of league is pulling their weight. If the rumors are true Swofford made promises about an ACC network that he has not been able to keep. FSU cannot be happy with this..

If the B12 could offer a lot more money and status why would they not jump? FSU is a large state school which focuses on football and is more similar to the schools in the B12. I would not be surprised to see Clemson bolt as well if the money was right. Currently the B12 cannot make that kind of money but build a network and then add in FL and SC and it will be big money

 

[Hoophound]

The ACC and B12 are in a race for a network. If adding UConn and Cincy can get the B12 a network then the same adds can probably get the ACC a network before long. One would think any months long due diligence time being thrown around by the B12 could be a ruse to keep the ACC from doing anything in a hurry.

 

[dwalks93]

The hang up on the Big12 network has always been UT and the LHN.

The ACC network problem is Swofford sold off their Tier 3 media rights and cannot make any headway with ESPN.

IMO Swofford is a way bigger problem that UT. You can compensate UT enough to make them relent on the LTN but you can't fix stupid with Swofford. Swofford is nothing but predictable and if there is a decision to be made, he will make the wrong choice.

I think the B12 wins the network battle if they expand.