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The gap, of course, refers to the vast distance separating UConn and the rest of WCBB.
Sometimes I think it’s hard to get a grip on how big the gap is. But I think I’ve got an effective way to illustrate. Bear with me.
Over in the NBA, Golden State is 19-0 and Philly is 0-18. GS is much better than the average NBA team. Philly is much worse than the average NBA team. How big is the gap between GS and Philly? Really, really big.
But here’s the thing. As big as the gap is between the 19-0 Warriors and the 0-18 Sixers is … the gap between UConn and the 2nd best WCBB team is considerably bigger!!! Put that in your pipe and smoke it!
What do I base that statement on? I use Sagarin’s predictive ratings. It’s a little tricky because Sagarin heavily discounts lopsided results. That works fine in normal circumstances but when all your games are lopsided, not so well. So I use the following method. Take Sagarin’s number for strength of schedule. That’s just the average opponent ranking (adjusted for home vs away vs neutral location). Then add average Margin of Victory to get a more accurate rating.
Using this method we get the following results:
UConn 127 Next best = Baylor at 102
Gap = 25
To be fair I have to make a similar adjustment with the NBA. The distortion is less severe but GS and Philly are good/bad enough that the discounting of lopsided scores does have an effect.
Gap b/w GS and Philly = 24
One other adjustment though…. In the NBA they play for 48 minutes. To compare the two gaps, you have to adjusted the NBA numbers. Final comparison is:
Gap b/w UConn and Baylor (#2) = 25
Gap b/w GS and Philly, adjusted to 40 minute game = 20
Conclusion: the gap between UConn and the rest of WCBB is really, really, really big!
Sometimes I think it’s hard to get a grip on how big the gap is. But I think I’ve got an effective way to illustrate. Bear with me.
Over in the NBA, Golden State is 19-0 and Philly is 0-18. GS is much better than the average NBA team. Philly is much worse than the average NBA team. How big is the gap between GS and Philly? Really, really big.
But here’s the thing. As big as the gap is between the 19-0 Warriors and the 0-18 Sixers is … the gap between UConn and the 2nd best WCBB team is considerably bigger!!! Put that in your pipe and smoke it!
What do I base that statement on? I use Sagarin’s predictive ratings. It’s a little tricky because Sagarin heavily discounts lopsided results. That works fine in normal circumstances but when all your games are lopsided, not so well. So I use the following method. Take Sagarin’s number for strength of schedule. That’s just the average opponent ranking (adjusted for home vs away vs neutral location). Then add average Margin of Victory to get a more accurate rating.
Using this method we get the following results:
UConn 127 Next best = Baylor at 102
Gap = 25
To be fair I have to make a similar adjustment with the NBA. The distortion is less severe but GS and Philly are good/bad enough that the discounting of lopsided scores does have an effect.
Gap b/w GS and Philly = 24
One other adjustment though…. In the NBA they play for 48 minutes. To compare the two gaps, you have to adjusted the NBA numbers. Final comparison is:
Gap b/w UConn and Baylor (#2) = 25
Gap b/w GS and Philly, adjusted to 40 minute game = 20
Conclusion: the gap between UConn and the rest of WCBB is really, really, really big!