How big is the gap? Really, really, really big

[Suebird10fan]

The gap, of course, refers to the vast distance separating UConn and the rest of WCBB.

Sometimes I think it’s hard to get a grip on how big the gap is. But I think I’ve got an effective way to illustrate. Bear with me.

Over in the NBA, Golden State is 19-0 and Philly is 0-18. GS is much better than the average NBA team. Philly is much worse than the average NBA team. How big is the gap between GS and Philly? Really, really big.

But here’s the thing. As big as the gap is between the 19-0 Warriors and the 0-18 Sixers is … the gap between UConn and the 2nd best WCBB team is considerably bigger!!! Put that in your pipe and smoke it!

What do I base that statement on? I use Sagarin’s predictive ratings. It’s a little tricky because Sagarin heavily discounts lopsided results. That works fine in normal circumstances but when all your games are lopsided, not so well. So I use the following method. Take Sagarin’s number for strength of schedule. That’s just the average opponent ranking (adjusted for home vs away vs neutral location). Then add average Margin of Victory to get a more accurate rating.

Using this method we get the following results:

UConn 127 Next best = Baylor at 102
Gap = 25

To be fair I have to make a similar adjustment with the NBA. The distortion is less severe but GS and Philly are good/bad enough that the discounting of lopsided scores does have an effect.

Gap b/w GS and Philly = 24

One other adjustment though…. In the NBA they play for 48 minutes. To compare the two gaps, you have to adjusted the NBA numbers. Final comparison is:

Gap b/w UConn and Baylor (#2) = 25
Gap b/w GS and Philly, adjusted to 40 minute game = 20

Conclusion: the gap between UConn and the rest of WCBB is really, really, really big!

 

[UcMiami]

Interesting, but perhaps a little strained.
I typically look at the difference in the raw number values in both Sagarin and Massey to judge the gap - in atypical years when Uconn is not #1, the gap between #1 and #2 in Sagarin for example is usually around 3 or 4, and never double digits in any of his calculations. In the past few years, Uconn has frequently gone into double digits in one or more of his calculations. And this year, Uconn is already well into that territory - through the first 3 games (and it will only get bigger after last night):
Rating gap: 13.21 (Baylor is #2)
Predictor: 13.18 (Miss St)
Golden Mean: 10.29 (Baylor)
Recent: 8.42 (ND)

 

[huskies29]

This is already one of the greatest women's college teams ever and will only get better as the underclassmen play more with the upperclassman. Won't see a team like this again for awhile imo.

 

[CL82]

I think we will have a very good sense of the gap, if any, after the Notre Dame game. A lot of teams have decent personal but are mentally or strategically unprepared deal with the 40 minutes of hell that UConn unleashes. Muffet, however, gets what we are going do and prepares her team to deal with it. I view Notre Dame as a great test as to where we are versus the field.

We are, of course, doomed.

 

[huskyd]

The gap, of course, refers to the vast distance separating UConn and the rest of WCBB.

Sometimes I think it’s hard to get a grip on how big the gap is. But I think I’ve got an effective way to illustrate. Bear with me.

Over in the NBA, Golden State is 19-0 and Philly is 0-18. GS is much better than the average NBA team. Philly is much worse than the average NBA team. How big is the gap between GS and Philly? Really, really big.

But here’s the thing. As big as the gap is between the 19-0 Warriors and the 0-18 Sixers is … the gap between UConn and the 2nd best WCBB team is considerably bigger!!! Put that in your pipe and smoke it!

What do I base that statement on? I use Sagarin’s predictive ratings. It’s a little tricky because Sagarin heavily discounts lopsided results. That works fine in normal circumstances but when all your games are lopsided, not so well. So I use the following method. Take Sagarin’s number for strength of schedule. That’s just the average opponent ranking (adjusted for home vs away vs neutral location). Then add average Margin of Victory to get a more accurate rating.

Using this method we get the following results:

UConn 127 Next best = Baylor at 102
Gap = 25

To be fair I have to make a similar adjustment with the NBA. The distortion is less severe but GS and Philly are good/bad enough that the discounting of lopsided scores does have an effect.

Gap b/w GS and Philly = 24

One other adjustment though…. In the NBA they play for 48 minutes. To compare the two gaps, you have to adjusted the NBA numbers. Final comparison is:

Gap b/w UConn and Baylor (#2) = 25
Gap b/w GS and Philly, adjusted to 40 minute game = 20

Conclusion: the gap between UConn and the rest of WCBB is really, really, really big!

Are we pulling a Cam Newton in the end zone? Probably. Do they hate us for it? Probably. Do we care?

 

[Jeff H]

If you have the best offense and the best defense in women's B-ball, as well as the best point guard and the best player and maybe the deepest bench. It makes for a pretty big gap.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Interesting, but perhaps a little strained.
I typically look at the difference in the raw number values in both Sagarin and Massey to judge the gap - in atypical years when Uconn is not #1, the gap between #1 and #2 in Sagarin for example is usually around 3 or 4, and never double digits in any of his calculations. In the past few years, Uconn has frequently gone into double digits in one or more of his calculations. And this year, Uconn is already well into that territory - through the first 3 games (and it will only get bigger after last night):
Rating gap: 13.21 (Baylor is #2)
Predictor: 13.18 (Miss St)
Golden Mean: 10.29 (Baylor)
Recent: 8.42 (ND)

Don't you find that Massey's gap is much bigger than Sagarin? I don't think Massey discounts lopsided scores nearly as much. The problem with using raw Massey at this point in the year is that his numbers are still heavily geared toward 2014 results. You can see that in South Carolina's rating which is still quite high for Massey and clearly not justified by results.

I'll be interested to see how the raw Massey evolves over the course of the year. I expect it to end up at 20 or above (around where I think the true delta is). Sagarin probably won't get over 15.

 

[Orangutan]

Well it may be true that Sagarin discounts lopsided margins (I don't know if does or not), I don't follow the theory behind your calculations.

Regardless, just using the Sagarin "predictor" number gives some pretty impressive results. The gap in predictor between the Sixers and Warriors is 19.86. That is roughly the same size as the gap between UConn and the #9 predictor team, Texas (20.03 margin) and significantly smaller than the 22.29 gap between UConn and South Carolina (#13 in predictor).

As noted by UCMiami, the gap between UConn and #2 Miss St. is 13.18, which is comparable to the gap between Golden State and #24 Portland.

 

[EricLA]

I think we while have a very good sense of the gap, if any, after the Notre Dame game. A lot of teams have decent personal but are mentally or strategically unprepared deal with the 40 minutes of hell that UConn unleashes. Muffet, however, gets what we are going do and prepares her team to deal with it. I view Notre Dame as a great test as to where we are versus the field.

We are, of course, doomed.

Agree but only if ND has Turner and Reimer as healthy. Turner is the key - without her, the beatdown could easily be 30. Even with her I doubt ND gets to within 15-20. Maybe I'm overly optimistic - we will see soon enough!

 

[DobbsRover2]

Well it may be true that Sagarin discounts lopsided margins (I don't know if does or not), I don't follow the theory behind your calculations.

Regardless, just using the Sagarin "predictor" number gives some pretty impressive results. The gap in predictor between the Sixers and Warriors is 19.86. That is roughly the same size as the gap between UConn and the #9 predictor team, Texas (20.03 margin) and significantly smaller than the 22.29 gap between UConn and South Carolina (#13 in predictor).

As noted by UCMiami, the gap between UConn and #2 Miss St. is 13.18, which is comparable to the gap between Golden State and #24 Portland.

Interesting that it looks like Sagarin has made changes in the system so that they are now all score based. It appears to have tossed the outcome-based ELO Chess and replaced it with a Recent classification for the 3-method-composite system, if I am reading the info at the top correctly. That should certainly give UConn an even bigger edge in the ratings.

Except for brain-dead RPI in which scores don't matter anyway, I believe that all systems discount at various rates the blow-out margins, so winning a game by 50 is the same as winning by 70. The biggest difference I see between Sagarin and Massey is the schedule ranking where Sags at least in the past has used a system that is not weighted like the excellent Massey one that gives far more value to playing top teams and not penalizing a UConn as much if it has to play a 200+ rated team that is really pretty much the same as playing a 100 rated team. It's complicated, but it factors in how far apart the teams are and discounts the difference when it is huge.

 

[msf22b]

I'm not a figures type

Rather more concerned with the anecdotal side such as Jeff H, CL82 and huskies 29 above.

I absolutely agree that the Notre Dame game will be key not only in our evaluation of the merits of this team.
but I Imagine that the rest of Woman's BB will be looking on with great interest.

What must they be thinking?
Does anyone have a chance to upset this behemoth; even give them a game?
Should we just rap up our hopes for the season now and compete for runner-up?

It's really not out of the question that the ND game resembles the others to date.
Of course the Chattanooga kids were tired...but an incomplete version of next season's team dominated them
for almost the entire 4th quarter.

Woe on woman's College Basketball 2015.
We may never see the likes of this again...Enjoy, savor, experience.

MSF

 

[Aluminny69]

Before the season started, I posted that UConn's only real test might be at South Carolina. My opinion hasn't changed. If UConn can decisively beat #2 SC on their home court, then your point will be proven conclusively.

 

[meyers7]

 

[ochoopsfan]

Evel Kneivel(may he RIP) said he would rather try to fly over the Grand Canyon than to fly over the gap between #1 UConn and whomever is the current #2.

 

[watanabe]

Before the season started, I posted that UConn's only real test might be at South Carolina. My opinion hasn't changed. If UConn can decisively beat #2 SC on their home court, then your point will be proven conclusively.

Not sure if your test will be valid.
When our bench took the field at Chattanooga, the chattanooga team seemed a bit empowered and tried to play harder. Then they realized what they were facing and seemed to loose all hope. Our bench is pretty much over the top this year.
Samuleson, Collier, Chong, Ekmark, & Lawlor. No Butler yet, Boykin was out ill, and Pulido was catching up on class lab assignments.
Chattanooga simply folded.
SC has what one, two players? No matter what they do, UConn will win by 40+. Motivation and overall improvement will make this less a challenge than a typical Geno practice.

 

[Orangutan]

Agree but only if ND has Turner and Reimer as healthy. Turner is the key - without her, the beatdown could easily be 30. Even with her I doubt ND gets to within 15-20. Maybe I'm overly optimistic - we will see soon enough!

For what it's worth, I agree with all of that.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Not sure if your test will be valid.
SC has what one, two players? No matter what they do, UConn will win by 40+.

Tony would be proud!

 

[Monte]

I think we will have a very good sense of the gap, if any, after the Notre Dame game. A lot of teams have decent personal but are mentally or strategically unprepared deal with the 40 minutes of hell that UConn unleashes. Muffet, however, gets what we are going do and prepares her team to deal with it. I view Notre Dame as a great test as to where we are versus the field.

We are, of course, doomed.

You are correct. The ND game will tell a lot. The SC game will also.