Breaking: The Big 12 may not expand. Got it.
There are a lot of programs that are only in P5 leagues because 40 years ago they were in a league that became a P5 league. The problem for the Big 12 is that at least half their programs fall into that category. UConn, Cincinnati, BYU and Houston would all be upgrades for the Big 12, particularly when measured by things like market size and athletic success. The problem for the Big 12 and the expansion candidates is that some of the schools probably do not see it that way, and some of the other schools do not care what happens to the Big 12.
I hate to break it to you but even lowly ISU is a P-5 school in every way imaginable when you look at the data. ISU has a 75 Million $ AD that requires less than 3% subsidy to operate. They have excellent fan support across the board and I believe enrollment is over 35k. They are a P-5 program in every sense. Just expanded the stadium to over 60k during a bad run of football.
If ISU was available for expansion they would get in ahead of Cinci, BYU, or Houston. It's hard to imagine but ISU and KSU have much better AD's than schools like Colorado or Utah so comparing them to Houston and Cincy is just ridiculous as they require the state to write a check for half the AD budget because they can't raise any money, have terrible ticket sales, lack donations, and are just welfare AD's.
Kansas State Big 12 $75,323,278 $67,316,209 $862,680
1.15
Iowa State Big 12 $75,283,516 $75,209,309 $2,044,400
2.72
Connecticut AAC $72,155,789 $72,062,423 $28,070,681
38.90
Rutgers Big Ten $70,558,935 $70,558,935 $23,803,903
33.74
Colorado Pac-12 $67,852,236 $65,273,311 $12,216,734
18.00
Utah Pac-12 $62,441,552 $58,734,014
$8,799,939 14.09
Cincinnati AAC $52,536,185 $51,717,370 $23,182,129
44.13
Houston AAC $44,815,210 $45,437,942 $25,994,014
58.00
For example lets imagine if UConn, Cinci, and Houston got in the Big 12 and received a 25 Million $ payout to offset subsidy. Compare apples to apples as a p-5 program. Becomes really clear that UConn, ISU, and KSU are the only P-5 AD's on that list with Colorado being close but still too poor and requires too much subsidy to operate. When you look at it that way UConn fits right in the Big 12.
KSU 75 Million $ AD with less than 1 Million Subsidy
ISU 75 Million $ AD. 2 Million Subsidy
UConn 72 Million $ AD. 3 Million Subsidy
Rutgers 70 Million AD 28 Million Subsidy
Colorado 67 Million $ AD 12 Million Subsidy
Cinci 54 Million $ AD with 0 Subsidy
Houston 44 Million $ AD with 0 Subsidy