Bracketology - week of March 11

[BRS24]

Hey gang - been out and about aaaallllll day, so didn't see anything online. CC updated the chart at 1:15 am today (!!!) so here's his update:

Even with JuJu Watkins having her worst game of the season, USC did what almost no one predicted in October: win the Pac-12 tournament. With it probably comes something that was even more unlikely: a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Trojans were projected as a 5-seed in the preseason. Sunday's nine-point, 2-for-15 shooting performance notwithstanding, consider Year 1 of the Watkins era a monumental success. Iowa was a projected No. 2 seed in the preseason, so even Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes exceeded their already lofty expectations. Sunday's Big Ten tournament championship in overtime over Nebraska also should wrap up a top seed for Iowa. It took every one of Clark's 30 second-half points to do it, but the Hawkeyes should have their third No. 1 seed -- and the first one with Clark.​

 

[Centerstream]

When is CC's "final pre-committee selection show" bracketology?

 

[BRS24]

GM friends - CC was busy while most of us were hopefully catching ZZZZZZs.

Texas held on to win in the Big 12 semifinals against Kansas State to keep its title hopes alive, but the Longhorns' opportunity for a No. 1 seed is likely gone. That has nothing to do with what the Longhorns haven't done; a Big 12 tournament championship would be significant. But USC has done more. The Trojans have the most wins in the country against the NET top 25 (eight), and their march to the Pac-12 title on Sunday was done with victories over two other teams in the top 10 of the NET (UCLA and Stanford). The triumph over the Wildcats represents a top-25 win for Texas, giving the Longhorns five. Iowa State, Tuesday's opponent in the championship game, is now in the top 40 of the NET. It's impressive, but Texas' résumé won't rise to the level of USC's accomplishments. Also on Monday, Oklahoma's decisive loss to the Cyclones cost the Sooners a spot in the top 16 -- opening the door for Colorado to slide back in.​

Here's a compressed look at both CC and MG's picks for the last few weeks:

 

[Blakeon18]

Well....if we get the set-up in BRS24's post....Albany #3 seed...pod with Iowa as our #1...I'd be thrilled for
our team and our travelin' fans.

 

[Rowdy831]

That is about as friendly a draw as you could possibly get. I am really intrigued by Ice in the last couple days and how her confidence will impact her ability to share the floor with AE and dominate a little. If they can both play at a high level it makes UConn a different team that can matchup with a couple other teams they couldn't before the emergence of Ice.

 

[Skeets]

Well....if we get the set-up in BRS24's post....Albany #3 seed...pod with Iowa as our #1...I'd be thrilled for
our team and our travelin' fans.

I hope to hear "get that number 10 outa my face!".

 

[ochoopsfan]

Bubble Busted?

Portland upsets The Zags, 67-66, for the 2nd year in a row.

 

[BRS24]

A few updates by CC and MG based on the Portland upset. CC swaps UConn/ND and Gonzaga/Indiana. MG puts in CO & KSU and takes out OK and the Zags. SEC loses a team.

 

[southie]

Even though there will be 5 teams from the PAC among the Top 16 national seeds, I doubt the committee will place a #4 seed in Colorado opposite a #1 seed from the PAC like Stanford to possibly meet in the Sweet 16; more likely CU is placed opposite Iowa or South Carolina.

 

[Bone Dog]

This is my optimistic voice talking: if we end up in Albany 3, then as CC imagines the bracket our likeliest path is:

Marshall - Baylor - UCLA - Iowa​

​

The first two are certainly winnable games, though Baylor can be tough. UCLA is a much steeper hill to climb, but not impossible, and they could be upset by Ole Miss before we have to face them. I'd really like to see Iowa-UConn in the elite eight game for obvious reasons. I'd chalk that one up as a win for Nika-Paige-Aaliyah just because they've always had Caitlin's number, and Ash and KK will know how to clamp down on the D as needed. But getting to that game looks like a difficult path... and Iowa could be upset by Colorado or FSU. Anything is possible.

Now let's see what the committee decides about brackets.

 

[Plebe]

Even though there will be 5 teams from the PAC among the Top 16 national seeds, I doubt the committee will place a #4 seed in Colorado opposite a #1 seed from the PAC like Stanford to possibly meet in the Sweet 16; more likely CU is placed opposite Iowa or South Carolina.

The committee's guidelines specifically say they will "attempt" to prevent conference rivals from meeting until the regional final. They have the flexibility to do so if there's no other way to balance the bracket within all of their required parameters, but in the past whenever there's been a 5th top 16 seed from a conference, it's never been paired with a conference rival as a likely sweet 16 opponent.

 

[From France]

I would prefer HHS's Megan's bracket than ESPN's CC

 

[Plebe]

This is my optimistic voice talking: if we end up in Albany 3, then as CC imagines the bracket our likeliest path is:

Marshall - Baylor - UCLA - Iowa​

I'm personally hoping and praying that Baylor gets sent as the 7 seed to Baton Rouge.

But maybe that's just me

 

[Blueberries]

Why am I reading the espn bracket saying we’re in Portland 3? Does that mean they’re considering us the 3rd 3 seed or 11th on the curve? When did Portland change from 2 to 3?

 

[BRS24]

Why am I reading the espn bracket saying we’re in Portland 3? Does that mean they’re considering us the 3rd 3 seed or 11th on the curve? When did Portland change from 2 to 3?

No idea. At one point, it was Albany 1&2, Portland 1&2. Then Portland became #4, and the 2&3 may have been changed, or messed up by me.

 

[Plebe]

Why am I reading the espn bracket saying we’re in Portland 3? Does that mean they’re considering us the 3rd 3 seed or 11th on the curve? When did Portland change from 2 to 3?

Those numbers for each region correspond to the projected order of the #1 seeds (and therefore can easily change from one projection to the next). Creme is projecting Iowa as the overall #2, Stanford as overall #3, and USC as overall #4. The committee may or may not have them in that order.

We can't deduce where exactly in the overall seeding order UConn has been projected, other than somewhere between #9 and #12. The bracket for the 2 seeds on down doesn't necessarily reflect a true S-curve.

 

[BRS24]

Cuppa Earl Grey going, CC & MG updates as of waaaaay to early this morning. No changes to top 16 for either. From CC:

Bubble teams can relax for one night. UNLV, a lock to make the NCAA tournament, did on Wednesday what Gonzaga couldn't on Tuesday: beat a team against which it was heavily favored in the conference championship game. With a big second half against San Diego State, the Lady Rebels won the Mountain West tournament, keeping the conference a one-bid league. Gonzaga's stunning loss to Portland makes the WCC a two-bid conference, and it cost Mississippi State -- which had been the "last team in" -- a spot in the field. The only change in Wednesday's update is Rice, the No. 10 seed in the AAC tournament, claiming the automatic berth with a triumph over No. 9 seed East Carolina in the title game.​

Note that these links will update if there are any changes to the brackets before Selection Sunday:

Women's Bracketology: All eyes on final projection

Who's in and who's out? Surprises will likely come when the bracket is revealed (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), but not at the top. South Carolina is No. 1 overall.

www.espn.com

Bracketology | NCAA Women's Basketball | Her Hoop Stats

NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Bracketology from Her Hoop Stats

herhoopstats.com

 

[Ozimoto]

I would love for the Huskies to play Marshal so I could watch Abbie Beeman play. She is related to some family friends of ours. There aren't a lot of opportunities to see her play, as TV exposure for Marshal athletics isn't really available in the DMV area.

 

[Bone Dog]

Meghan's bracket looks like a tougher path for UConn than CC's bracket. Jackson St looks like a win, but beating Louisville a second time could be a tall order.

We beat the Cardinals handily last time, but that included a tremendous game from Aubrey, who was an impossible matchup for them. She had 25 pts on 9-11 shooting, 5 rebounds, 4 steals, 1 block and 2 assists. That's one heckuva a stat line. Paige and Aaliyah had great games, too. Can they make up for the loss of Aubrey against a team that is taller and stronger than us at most positions? Don't get me wrong -- I think Paige can engineer a second win. But this is a tough game for the round of 32.

After that, it's likely another game against UCLA which is a pretty steep hill to climb. Can Paige do it? Can Aaliyah? Can Ice? -- She'll be needed to counter a very large front court. I think our defense has made huge strides since December in the backcourt. And Paige is tough matchup for them -- maybe Jacquez is who they'll turn to.

Always in my thinking is "if only we can get to a game against Iowa." That's one I'm confident we can win. The core of Paifge-Nika-Aaliyah matches up really well against them. I think everything favors us. It's an odd bracket for UConn that has such an obstacle in the Sweet Sixteen, but something less daunting waiting in the Elite Eight. I imagine Lisa Bluder would prefer UCLA to UConn in that game.

 

[ochoopsfan]

Toledo, who was 26-4 coming into todays MAC semi Final, has lost to Buffalo, in OT.
Do they still get in, along with the MAC winner?

 

[Blakeon18]

OCHoops: with that kind of a record I think [and hope] Toledo gets in.

 

[DallasDomer]

A few updates by CC and MG based on the Portland upset. CC swaps UConn/ND and Gonzaga/Indiana. MG puts in CO & KSU and takes out OK and the Zags. SEC loses a team.
View attachment 97606
View attachment 97607

Do you have any indication of his past performance versus the Committee selections?

I can't find his old brackets from prior years but I plan to keep this year and see how he does.

 

[DallasDomer]

Toledo, who was 26-4 coming into todays MAC semi Final, has lost to Buffalo, in OT.
Do they still get in, along with the MAC winner?

Not that I know what it will mean but Toledo has a Net of 64, A Net SOS of 147 and Massey rank of 64, so they are right on the edge. But if you compare them with a bubble team like Vanderbilt ( Net 57, SOS 73, Massey 48) it doesn't look like they will get in.

But what do I know, I'm just guessing.

 

[MSGRET]

Toledo, who was 26-4 coming into todays MAC semi Final, has lost to Buffalo, in OT.
Do they still get in, along with the MAC winner?

If Ball State wins the tournament I don't believe Toledo gets in. The two split the season games and many people thought that they would be playing the tie breaker in the Championship game. This may be moot issue because Ball State is currently losing Kent State.

 

[Plebe]

Toledo, who was 26-4 coming into todays MAC semi Final, has lost to Buffalo, in OT.
Do they still get in, along with the MAC winner?

Highly doubtful. Their entire resume hangs on a win over Michigan. Only two wins over the NET top 100 is a very flimsy body of work. 25 wins doesn't mean much to the committee when 23 of them are over teams outside the top 100. Buffalo came into today #190 in the NET, so this is a very bad loss.