Bracketology - UConn to Lincoln

[Wbbfan1]

http://espn.go.com/ncw/bracketology

Charlie is saying since UConn to Louisville has been talked about and most are against it, Committee will send UConn to Lincoln to avoid the media/fan outrage. http://espn.go.com/womens-college-b...ecticut-huskies-placement-louisville-regional


Stanford still the easiest bracket. IMHO the Louisville bracket is the toughest bracket.

 

[Vowelguy]

What changed? Absolutely nothing. Which just shows that Creme is not an expert - he has no clue what's gonna happen, making him as knowledgeable as pretty much everyone else in the world.

 

[triaddukefan]

What changed? Absolutely nothing. Which just shows that Creme is not an expert - he has no clue what's gonna happen, making him as knowledgeable as pretty much everyone else in the world.

A few changes.... he switched TAMU out of Stanford and put in Kentucky. Well, thats the one change that caught my attention

 

[Icebear]

It means Charlie was watching last night when Rebecca and Beth indicated the actual wording of the "rule."

Something Phil noted here weeks ago as the probably out for the committee.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Creme's long, dark arctic night is over. In the end, sensibility prevails.

 

[Vowelguy]

A few changes.... he switched TAMU out of Stanford and put in Kentucky. Well, thats the one change that caught my attention

I meant what changed to cause him to suddenly move UConn to Lincoln. Nothing. The guy just admitted he doesn't know what he's doing.

 

[EricLA]

It still makes little sense. Switch Baylor and South Carolina and maybe you have a more reasonable bracket. Then switch the entire Tennessee bracket with Stanford's - so that Stanford would face ND and Tennessee UCONN. Then maybe he'd be close to what makes sense...

 

[Fightin Choke]

It still makes little sense. Switch Baylor and South Carolina and maybe you have a more reasonable bracket. Then switch the entire Tennessee bracket with Stanford's - so that Stanford would face ND and Tennessee UCONN. Then maybe he'd be close to what makes sense...

If you switch Baylor and S. Carolina, then Baylor meets WV in the EE, which is a no-no because they already played 3 times.

The brackets are NOT aligned in any order, so we have idea whether Tennessee's bracket will face UConn's or Notre Dame's. Remember that "Regions not reflective of Final Four pairings".

 

[Phil]

As I pointed out yesterday, if they haven't changed the rules (and there is no indication they have changed them) then applying the rules , subject to the override of the agreements to allow regional hosts to play at home and a literal application of the rules sends UConn to ND.

The point of this argument, as an astute fan picked up on when I ran it past her last night, isn't that the committee will send UConn to ND, but that they won't which means they must have some flexibility. And if they do have flexibility, they do not HAVE to send UConn to Louisville.

It frees them up to apply the underlying principles.

The original decision to emphasize geography was to concede that economics trumped the S-curve. As Charlie points out, the decision to allow teams to host was a further nod to economics. The rules aren't pure economics, they still want to give preference to teams who have earned the top positions in the list, but when sites were neutral, given that preference was almost equivalent to sending teams to the closest venue. They didn't literally want to say, Top seed, where would you like to play", but given neutral locations, sending the top four teams to the closest locations, in order, was effectively the selection committee granting that option.

They missed that the best available option changes a lot when the regionals are not neutral. So, rather than slavishly send to the closest option, they can choose the underlying goal of sending the top four seeds, in order, tot he site most desirable to them. One minor nice aspect is that you do not even have to debate whether UConn or ND is number one. Either order, they would choose the same things.

They still have to deal with 2 seeds, and whether location or match ups should reign, but for the top seeds, I think Charlie has sussed out how the committee will think.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Not really sure that anything changed either; it's just that thoughts may have synthesized and Charlie may have been given some indication that two conference teams will not be posted up against each other. It has always seemed this year that there are conference rules and geography rules in conflict with each other, and the first is stark while the other has some fuzziness to it. The indication is that the committee will try to avoid having top-4-line teams from the same conference from playing in the same region, which the general seeding rules expressly forbids.

 

[DobbsRover2]

If you switch Baylor and S. Carolina, then Baylor meets WV in the EE, which is a no-no because they already played 3 times.

The brackets are NOT aligned in any order, so we have idea whether Tennessee's bracket will face UConn's or Notre Dame's. Remember that "Regions not reflective of Final Four pairings".

#2 and #3 would meet in Sweet 16, but yes other points seem correct.

 

[Icebear]

"The committee will attempt to assign each team to a geographically compatible regional and first/second-round site, by order of the S curve. When multiple teams are a similar distance from a site, the team seeded higher in the s-curve will be assigned to the closest geographical proximity site."

Now we get into the kind of hairiness one finds in the applications section of the Rules of Golf.

What is the interaction between the first and second sentences under the new rule allowing hosting schools to play at their own site? Rebecca certainly was giving higher weight to the first sentence and it's "will attempt" over the second sentences "will."

 

[easttexastrash]

P

I meant what changed to cause him to suddenly move UConn to Lincoln. Nothing. The guy just admitted he doesn't know what he's doing.

Everyone has stated that Creme is an idiot and doesn't know what he's talking about but suddenly think he's right because he movesd UCONN. If he's as dumb as he's been made out to be I wouldn't believe in anything he projects.

 

[Phil]

I've also argued, that when it comes to defining "closest" the rule should not slavishly simplify to the number of miles. The whole point of geographical preference is that it is easier, for both the team and the fans, to travel a shorter distance rather than a longer distance. If one option means you have to get on a plane and take a short flight (Louisville) and the other option means you have to get on a plane and take a short flight (Lincoln), those sites should be deemed equivalent.

If the choice was between a derivable location, and one requiring a flight, those would be different. Similarly, there's a difference between a short flight (Lincoln or Louisville) and a long, cross country flight with multiple time zone changes (Stanford). The committee can eat their cake and have it, too, by clarifying that when distances are effectively the same, they should be treated as if they were the same, giving them the flexibility to let balance considerations prevail, if the distance consideration can be considered a wash.

 

[Phil]

P


Everyone has stated that Creme is an idiot and doesn't know what he's talking about but suddenly think he's right because he movesd UCONN. If he's as dumb as he's been made out to be I wouldn't believe in anything he projects.

Can you point me to a single person who has done that?

Seriously.

It would be a clever observation if it were true, but I haven't seen anyone doing that.

 

[DobbsRover2]

It will be interesting to see how the top mid majors are treated. Sagarin, Massey, and Nolan's RPI all have Gonzaga at #4 seed level, but the committee usually adds two lines to Gonzaga's seed, so Creme's #6 seed for the Zags seems reasonable. Dayton and MTSU have huge variability in the different ratings, but Creme projects them at #7 even though Dayton would be a #10-#12 seed in Sagarin and Massey.

 

[easttexastrash]

I think this bracket looks about right, although I think that Stanford, once again, gets the easiest path. Does the committee like having them in the FF?

Can you point me to a single person who has done that?

Seriously.

It would be a clever observation if it were true, but I haven't seen anyone doing that.

Seriously? Every bracket thread has had statements about Creme not knowing what he's talking about.

 

[Phil]

Vowelguy is disparaging Creme simply because he made the switch, so he isn't an example.

I've consistently supported Creme's reasoning in most cases. I feel that the committee needs to find enough wiggle room to do the right thing, but I understood, and didn't criticize Creme for thinking the committee might closely follow the letter rather than the spirit of the rules, but I think you'll struggle to find that I've characterized Creme as an idiot.

 

[DobbsRover2]

P


Everyone has stated that Creme is an idiot and doesn't know what he's talking about but suddenly think he's right because he movesd UCONN. If he's as dumb as he's been made out to be I wouldn't believe in anything he projects.

Oh dear, someone has something bunched up as usual. I guess Creme is an idiot now because Baylor isn't projected as a #1 seed. And "Everyone" is stating that too, of course, along with the unanimous feeling still that Baylor is not a top 25 team. Maybe Husky fans just want some exercise husking corn.

 

[Phil]

I think this bracket looks about right, although I think that Stanford, once again, gets the easiest path. Does the committee like having them in the FF?


Seriously? Every bracket thread has had statements about Creme not knowing what he's talking about.

Lots of bracket threads have some commentators who challenge Creme, no question. I'm asking you to point out the ones who now support him.

 

[DobbsRover2]

If you had been reading the threads, you would recall that many of us stated that Creme is usually pretty well on the mark, but that this year there were questions about how the rules would be followed that were confusing to all of us, including Creme. But do make up your own history.

 

[reno tony]

I'm going to need some type of flow chart for all this stuff. When rankings are applied, destinations, conference exceptions, will of the boneyarders, alphabetic order, uniform colors and who knows what else. The only thing I know is the N.C. goes through UCONN.

51 TO GO​

 

[DobbsRover2]

One statement that Charlie made that the committee does not bracket to avoid a hypothetical meeting four games into the tournament is probably somewhat true. And the last time two conference mates were 1-2 and met in the E8 (Baylor-Texas A&M, 2011), there was some backlash. It is also true, however, that 9 of 12 E8s in the last three years have featured the #1 seed vs. #2 seed, so with that type of trend there is going to be huge awareness of the problem of lining up conference mates in a regional.

 

[ochoopsfan]

For those who dont like Creme, please post your own bracket(with explanations if needed).
I am sure there will always be some people not happy, with some selections or seedings.
The way I see it as long as UConn and ND cant meet until the championship game the brackets are OK.

Maybe if we change the brackets to two 32 seeded brackets with UConn and ND as the only "True" #1's it will be fairer.

 

[UcMiami]

I think the big thing that has changed is that public opinion and commentary has common together to create a pretty strong idea that sending Uconn anywhere but Lincoln would be really, really stupid and don't think the committee doesn't notice that. In previous years the opinions generally came after the brackets were already announced - this time around there is a pretty loud cry that probably started with I think Voepel's article about 69 miles (the difference in distance between South Bend and Louisville from Storrs.)
And interestingly ... as much as people want to beat on Charlie ... his publishing a series of brackets adhering religiously to NCAA committee rules and past precedents has greatly help. By creating these brackets and posting them on the most public of forums he has crested just the kind of buzz that should make the committee use common sense over some idea of 'we were just following orders' excuse to explain institutionalized stupidity.
And I think the change in this most recent bracket reflects a growing feeling that the committee isn't as blindly stupid as Creme was implying previously.