Bracketology 3/5/23

[VA Huskie]

I still don’t get the Creme bashing. He’s using the rules/guidelines that the Committee uses to try and project what they will eventually do. I don’t think he’s for or against any particular team. I think the Committee will take into account the players we were missing in our losses, as well as how we look with a full complement of this year’s roster.

If we end up as a 2 or 3 seed, I sure wouldn’t want to be the higher seeds in our region.

 

[fomalhaut]

Doesn't really matter much who anyone is rooting for. Clark has 17 in the first 12 minutes, probably on the way to wrapping up Player of the Year for herself and a 1 seed for Iowa.

 

[UcMiami]

I agree that Kim adjusts her OOC based on her expected team - she did it at Baylor and she is doing it at LSU. This LSU team at the time when schedules are being made had not mined the portal for its best players so the schedule was really weak. Unfortunately the SEC was also really weak this year so the end result was even worse.

What has bothered me both at Baylor and now this year is not the number of ranked teams on the schedule, but the number of really pathetic teams. Over the years she has scheduled more teams in the 200+ ranked of rankings than any other P5/P6 quality coach, and when she runs out of 200+ ranked teams she fills in with 100+ ranked teams. And she has done this when she has had great teams at close to the same rate as when she has dogs.

Brenda at Maryland did that for a while too, until she got smacked down by the committee with a lower seed than she thought she should have, and the committee answer was upgrade your schedule or shut up.

 

[Jokerman619]

Iowa.

 

[SweatinIt]

The focus needs to be on the NCAA Committee Top 16 Reveal which the last one was on February 23rd which included UCONN's loss to St John. In that reveal, we were #7. Looking at that list, every team except SC lost and lost early in their tournament. If UCONN wins tomorrow, they should move up to a #1 seed. Creme de la creme means nothing but adding fodder for us to talk about. Stay tuned.....tomorrow!

Top 16 in-season rankings​

Second reveal (through games Wednesday, Feb. 22)​

1. South Carolina (No. 1 seed — Greenville Region)
2. Indiana (No. 1 seed — Greenville Region)
3. Stanford (No. 1 seed — Seattle Region)
4. Utah (No. 1 seed — Seattle Region)
5. LSU
6. Maryland
7. UConn
8. Virginia Tech
9. Iowa
10. Notre Dame
11. Duke
12. Ohio State
13. Texas
14. Villanova
15. Arizona
16. Michigan

 

[Bone Dog]

With Iowa currently blowing out tOSU by 30+ points midway through the second quarter, it looks like a strong case for a 2 seed for both Iowa and IU, and a 4 or 5 seed for tOSU.

 

[SECbbfan24]

With Iowa currently blowing out tOSU by 30+ points midway through the second quarter, it looks like a strong case for a 2 seed for both Iowa and IU, and a 4 or 5 seed for tOSU.

I just turned on the game and I see Iowa is winning 59-24 in the 2nd

 

[Ralph]

I think Ohio State gave it their all yesterday, they have nothing left for today. Understandable.

 

[Bone Dog]

Charlie Creme on the Iowa-tOSU halftime show: he’s sticking with Stanford and Va Tech on the one line.

 

[Rowdy831]

If selection was this week I think the losses by Indiana and LSU would be a bigger negative. With a week to decide I think a lot more analysis will be done and I think that will be huge for UCONN. If they win the Big East Tournament they will be no lower than a 2 seed and possibly a 1 seed. If they win the BET and beat Villanova in the final in decisive fashion then I would think they will be a 1 seed based on how much better this team is with a bench Geno has confidence in.

The Indiana and LSU losses were bad but I really think the Utah and Stanford loss will move both of them out of the 1 for sure and I don't think Stanford is a lock for a 2. In the end it won't matter as long as you aren't matched up against SC before the FF. They are the one team other than UCONN that is deep and talented at every position.

 

[Rowdy831]

Charlie Creme on the Iowa-tOSU halftime show: he’s sticking with Stanford and Va Tech on the one line.

Stanford has three bad losses and several close calls. They aren't even close to a 1 seed.

 

[UcMiami]

Based on NET - the committee's on special ranking - and on 'state of team' as in team injures and injured players returning Uconn if they win has a good shot at being a #1 seed.

Iowa with an impressive first half shooting 70/60/87 - but ... OSU was a different team in the second half against Indiana overcoming a 20 point deficit. Iowa with a 37 point lead and a wake up call from yesterday is probably a hill too far.

 

[azfan]

I don’t think Kim has anything to apologize for. She put her team in a good position for the post season.

I still remember what Adia Barnes did to get Arizona ready for the tournament two years ago: feeding her team a steady diet of claiming they’d been dismissed by the world. That chip on their shoulders carried them to the NC game that year.

The strategy has been sustainable by one coach over a long career I'm not sure there's any evidence it's sustainable for the other

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I still don’t get the Creme bashing. He’s using the rules/guidelines that the Committee uses to try and project what they will eventually do. I don’t think he’s for or against any particular team. I think the Committee will take into account the players we were missing in our losses, as well as how we look with a full complement of this year’s roster.

If we end up as a 2 or 3 seed, I sure wouldn’t want to be the higher seeds in our region.

Because he’s not using the rules or guidelines. Our blind resume is better than almost everyone we are competing with for a 1 seed. We are number 2 in NET, have the most top 25 NET wins. Number 1 sos and the same amount of losses. That’s a one seed resume this year, not even taking into account player injuries and he has us as a three seed. It’s absurd.

 

[CTGirl15]

Stanford has three bad losses and several close calls. They aren't even close to a 1 seed.

I honestly don't understand how he still has Stanford as a 1 seed and UConn as a 3 seed:

• UConn has the #2 SOS, Stanford 3
• UConn is #3 in RPI, Stanford 4
• UConn #2 in NET, Stanford 4

UConn Record: 28 - 5
Stanford Record: 28 - 5

UConn is playing for their Conference Championship, Stanford was knocked out early.

Not to be a UConn homer, but the math is not mathing for me.

 

[Cuango]

Because he is the messenger and people want to shoot the messenger when bad news is delivered.
As much as many have tried to inform our fellow BYers that Charlie is just reviewing the metrics (NET, Conference success, injuries) that THE NCAA COMMITTEE will use and tries to predict who makes tournamen what seeding will occur to inject excitement and dialogue. HE IS NOT THE BAD GUY HERE. UConn hurt themselves by losing to 2 unranked tems this year including 1 at home who isn’t going to make the NCAAT. Those are not “good” losses. Now compare that to the losses Stanford and Indiana had to RANKED and very good NET teams In their Conference tournaments. For UConn to be in any discussion for a #1 they need resounding victories today against Marquette (NET 39) and tomorrow with tomorrow being against a ranked Villanova With a 12 NET. Just beating Creighton (NET 17) might not be enough to get it done.

So enough of the pointed criticism at Creme, he does not have any input!

He may not have direct input but he’s been doing this long enough for his opinions to carry some weight. There’s little doubt that his opinions can and do influence the people that actually set the field. Not saying that’s necessarily bad but it could be if he were deliberately underrating (or overrating) certain teams. I’m not saying he does that of course, merely pointing out that he does imo have some influence on the bracket!

 

[Cuango]

That may well be but it doesn’t explain Baylor’s weak OOC when they were considered
the favorite to win the National Championship with Griner. She has a history as a coach.

I think it’s pretty clear Kim simply does not consider a weak schedule to be that big of a negative.

 

[Plebe]

Oh please. She did the same thing when she coached Baylor. Even when she had the best player in the country she played a cupcake OOC schedule.

This is not factually accurate. In 2013 Baylor had the #1 overall SOS and the #2 overall nonconference SOS.

 

[DefenseBB]

This is not factually accurate. In 2013 Baylor had the #1 overall SOS and the #2 overall nonconference SOS.

 

[bballnut90]

I honestly don't understand how he still has Stanford as a 1 seed and UConn as a 3 seed:

• UConn has the #2 SOS, Stanford 3
• UConn is #3 in RPI, Stanford 4
• UConn #2 in NET, Stanford 4

UConn Record: 28 - 5
Stanford Record: 28 - 5

UConn is playing for their Conference Championship, Stanford was knocked out early.

Not to be a UConn homer, but the math is not mathing for me.

I don't think UCONN is a #1 but I'm not seeing how Stanford is seemingly a lock as the 3rd #1 seed. For the most part, neither squad has played well down the stretch.

 

[bballnut90]

The focus needs to be on the NCAA Committee Top 16 Reveal which the last one was on February 23rd which included UCONN's loss to St John. In that reveal, we were #7. Looking at that list, every team except SC lost and lost early in their tournament. If UCONN wins tomorrow, they should move up to a #1 seed. Creme de la creme means nothing but adding fodder for us to talk about. Stay tuned.....tomorrow!

Top 16 in-season rankings​

Second reveal (through games Wednesday, Feb. 22)​

1. South Carolina (No. 1 seed — Greenville Region)
2. Indiana (No. 1 seed — Greenville Region)
3. Stanford (No. 1 seed — Seattle Region)
4. Utah (No. 1 seed — Seattle Region)
5. LSU
6. Maryland
7. UConn
8. Virginia Tech
9. Iowa
10. Notre Dame
11. Duke
12. Ohio State
13. Texas
14. Villanova
15. Arizona
16. Michigan

Win quality matters too though. Iowa knocking off Indiana, Maryland and Ohio State down the stretch is worth more than UCONN beating DePaul/Xavier/Georgetown/Marquette. And Virginia Tech has nice wins over Duke/UNC/Louisville to close it out. Lots of gray area. SC/Indiana seem like the only surefire top 2 seeds at this point.

 

[HopJim]

Having trouble with Virginia Tech, losers to two unranked teams, Miami and Clemson, being a #1 seed (or a high #2 seed for that matter). Ok schedule, but played 2nd tier teams like Bucknell, High Point, and Longwood. Few top 20 teams. I normally try to see both sides to seeding decisions but this one is a head scratcher.

 

[toadfoot]

This is not factually accurate. In 2013 Baylor had the #1 overall SOS and the #2 overall nonconference SOS.

You’re cherry picking. According to Massey Baylor SOS :
2014-32
2015-31
2016-36
2017-39
2018-27
2019-8 way to go Mulkey
2020-44

 

[Kaizen]

Charlie Creme on the Iowa-tOSU halftime show: he’s sticking with Stanford and Va Tech on the one line.

This Creme is a joke ... to me.

 

[UCBaller2012]

I don't think UCONN is a #1 but I'm not seeing how Stanford is seemingly a lock as the 3rd #1 seed. For the most part, neither squad has played well down the stretch.

This. I truly don’t understand why Stanford is considered a lock as a 1