Analysis and Comments - Game 9 - UConn vs North Carolina

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

NORTH CAROLINA

We can neither let North Carolina's 6-3 record nor North Carolina's opponent's low RPI ratings lull us into complacency. While it is true that compared to UConn's #7 RPI and its #2 SOS, University of North Carolina's #78 RPI and its #15 SOSS it would appear that UConn is better prepared... other factors indicate that we can not take North Carolina lightly. They recently lost to the number one team in the country, South Carolina only by 7 points. North Carolina led at the half. They held South Carolina to only 65 points which was 35 points below their average, and they outrebounded South Carolina 45 to 39 with 15 of those being offensive rebounds, which allowed NC to control more clock. North Carolina's two seniors Deja Kelly and Alyssa Utsby are as good a 1-2 combination as you can expect to see in WCBB. You cannot leave Lexi Donarski open beyond the arc...she will make you pay. North Carolina has three players on watch lists: Deja Kelly is on the watch list for point guard of the year; Alyssa Utsby is on the Cheryl Miller Award Watch List and, Maria Gakdeng is on the Lisa Leslie Award Watch List. To put it bluntly...North Carolina despite the level of competition it has faced thus far is a good team...especially defensively...they have Maria Gakdeng a rim protector, and an elite defender in Lexi Donarski who can also shoot the three. North Carolina has the pieces with Gakdeng on the inside to disrupt post play, and experienced guards on the perimeter to pose a problem for UCONN. North Carolina has struggled to make shots...but, I always find it ironic how teams who struggle from three suddenly find the basket when they play UConn. Also ironic is that despite NC's problems from three-point Maria Gakdeng has been very efficient under the basket hitting 40 of 56 for .714. One area of concern for North Carolina is outside of South Carolina, the level of competition hasn't been that tough: Vermont - RPI - 89, SOS - 280; Hampton - RPI - 256, SOS - 136; Elon - RPI - 200, SOS - 200; Davison - RPI - 94, SOS - 113; South Carolina - RPI - 11, SOS - 3; Kansas State - RPI - 97, SOS - 47; Florida Gulf Coast - RPI - 119, SOS - 273; UNC Greensboro - RPI - 57, SOS - 299.

UCONN

Nika Muhl's homecoming game with Ball State presented our fans with a lot of positives but it also showed some vulnerabilities as well. Paige was extremely efficient in 21 minutes of play with 15 points; 2 for 3 from three-point; 5/7 in field goals and 3 for 4 from the foul line. She added 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals to her stat line. Aaliyah Edwards continued to add to her solid play of late by contributing a double-double (18 and 12). Aubrey finally began to look more like herself flashing to the basket and using her quickness and athleticism to score 14 points, 4 rebounds, and one steal in 16 minutes of play. Our freshmen did well with Ashlynn Shade leading the way with 17 points and only one turnover. Where we are vulnerable is that we can not sustain the intensity on either the defensive or the offensive end. This was no more evident than in the spectacular first-quarter effort that produced 37 points but our production dropped to a 20-point average per quarter for the rest of the game. Also, we allowed too many open looks for Ball State on the perimeter where they hit 9 for 20 from three. While our freshmen were a breath of fresh air...let's keep in mind that Geno said in the after-game show that he tries to keep things simple for the Freshmen...telling them to just do what they did in high school. This is why they are often out of position and why they sometimes miss defensive assignments. Finally, we allowed Ball State to force 17 turnovers, a concerning statistic since North Carolina forces an average of 19 TOs per game. Let's hope that UConn is able to build upon its recent successes and continue to improve as the next few games are going to be tough. To UConn's credit and I am not sure how much it helps them in this game UConn has played tougher competition: Maryland - RPI - 5, SOS 7; UCLA - RPI - 12; SOS - 17; Texas - RPI - 14, SOS - 19; Kansas - RPI - 52, SOS - 42; Minnesota - RPI - 67, SOS - 81; Ball State - RPI - 111, SOS - 53; Dayton - RPI - 118, SOS - 270

MATCH-UPS ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards - Sr, 6'3" vs Maria Gakdeng - Jr - 6'3" - Maria averages 10.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and gets 1.3 blocks per game. Aaliyah averages 15.8 points and 7.3 rebounds. Both players are strong and fairly mobile players...Aaliyah has played tougher competition. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aubrey Griffin - Gr, 6'1" vs Alyssa Ustby - Sr, 6'1" - Alyssa Ustby is a stat stuffer she averages 11 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2 steals and 1 block per game. More of a mid-range jumper kind of player as she does not pose much of a threat from three. She is on Cheryl Millers Watch List. Alyssa is the perfect opponent for the athletic Aubrey Griffin who a stat-stuffer herself. While Aubrey's stats are quite equal to Alyssa's I believe she is emerging from a slump and I expect her to build upon her last performance. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Paige Bueckers - R. Jr, 6'0" vs Lexi Donarsky - Gr, 6'0" - This is an interesting match-up as Lexi will present defensive difficulties for Paige who is arguably the best player in the country. Lexi can and will hit threes if she is left open. She is one of North Carolina's go to players. Paige is undoubtedly UConn's go to player, her minutes have been managed by Geno...but, I expect that to be coming to an end shortly... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl - Sr, 5'11" vs Deja Kelly - Sr, 5'8" - Again Nika will be matched with the opposing team's most productive player...Deja averages 16 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.0 steals. Deja is another player who has an excellent mid-range jumper and is strong off the dribble. Outside of scoring Nika is pretty evenly matched with Deja. Nika's strong defense may equalize things in the scoring department. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Ashlynn Shade - Fr, 5'10" vs Indra Nivar - So, 5'10" - Someone has to start at this position...it could be KK, it could be Qadence or it could be Ice Brady, however, I believe that Ashlynn earned this start with her 17 point performance against Ball State. Additionally, Ashlynn is a pretty good defender and so far she has not been careless with the basketball averaging less than one turnover per game. Indya Nivar averages 6.6 points, 4.9 rebounds and she contributes 1 assists and 1 steal per game. While I like Ashlynn for the start I am not sure she will be able negate Indra's contributions. ADVANTAGE - North Carolina.

BENCH

UConn's bench has gotten shorter with the injuries...with only 3 players getting significant minutes (KK, Samuels and Ice) they bring 17 points and 7 rebounds off the bench while North Carolina brings 17 points and 12 rebounds of the bench. I believe the UConn bench will be more impactful than North Carolina...so I am going to go with: SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES

It will be a home game for UConn albeit Mohegan Sun...making it somewhat a neutral court with the fan base being a home crowd...UConn coming off a much needed win as is North Carolina. Both teams are struggling to find their identities. UConn has played a much tougher schedule at this point in the season. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

North Carolina has an excellent coaching staff...Banghart was honored as one of America's 50 best leaders by Fortune Magazine in 2015. She is 330 - 146 overall...formerly coached at Dartmouth. She took over the Princeton program and coached there for a dozen years. She redefined that program and was responsible for getting Princeton its highest NCAA seeding in the tournament...seeded number 8. She also got Princeton its only at-large bid and its highest AP ranking of 13. As accomplished as she is it is hard to compare to Geno's 11 NCAA championships. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

This one will be a defensive battle and will probably be low scoring.

UCONN - 71
NORTH CAROLINA - 65

MOV - 6

 

[Zarathustra]

Your Analysis is thoughtful and a little "frightening". Prior to UNC's win over UNC- Greensboro, 81 - 66,
The Tarheels were shooting a field goal percentage of .391 to their opponents .370 and their three point
percentage was 24.5 %to their opponents 30.1%. On the Free throw stat line, they were .659 to their opponent's
.732 UNC 's ppg was 67.3 (UCONN's prior to Ball State was 77.6.) UCONN is also better at free throws:
72.9 % to 65.9%. Then again, even with Cierra Toomy 6'4" freshman being red-shirted for rehab, the
Tar Heels still have Alexandra Zelaya 6' 4" and Rylee Grays 6' 3" coming off the bench for approximately
8.9 and 3.8 minutes respectively (a lot more than Amari!). UNC is # 24 in some polls. First, I was worried,
then I was confident (78 to 63, mov 15), now I'm back in my worry mode! I will prognosticate in the future,
but if they are HOT (rebounding and Donarski's three-point shooting), it will be a barn burner. In short,
you are right on target (again)!! Thanks for the analysis. Just what I needed, more worry! (supposed to be
humorous). Laila Hull is also red-shirted 6'1" and I thought Teonni Key 6' 4" sophomore center was going
to be back from her red-shirted status. Their roster was once 15 players but their UCN stat sheet only lists
12 players. Many red-shirted "BIGS" .

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again @cferraro04. I have a couple of observations.

Paige played against Lexi once in HS. They have similar games, though Paige usually has a lot more… moxie. We’ll see how it goes this time. And Lexi is a very nice kid, Paige-level nice.

SC contained Kelly by ignoring her on the perimeter. Dawn reasoned that she was more dangerous in the lane especially when she’s hunting foul calls. We should do the same. She’ll hit a few 3s but this isn’t her strength. I’d put Ashlynn or KK on her as much as possible. I’d put Nika on Nivar.

The way Utsby is playing right now I’m not sure Aubrey can contain her. It will be a significant challenge for her.

I’m afraid to predict a UConn win. This one could go either way. If Utsby has a big night and Kelly hits enough 3s to open her paint game, we’ll be in trouble. On the other hand, if Paige dominates then it’s all over for the Tarheels.

 

[cferraro04]

Bone Dog of your three "what ifs?" I prefer the latter... Also, my what if scenario would be, "what if both teams were at full strength?" "What if North Carolina had its bigs available and what if we had our bigs (Jana and Ayanna) and Fudd available?" While I have no doubt that UConn would win in that scenario, what a game it would be.

 

[SEbluebood]

Fair analysis. Most accurate line is that both teams are struggling to find identities! I would add struggling for consistency as well!

I do disagree with the thought that Paige is “arguably the best player in the country”. While she certainly has the potential to be, there is no reasonable analysis that can point to her being that right now. She doesn’t have the stats, she’s has not led the team to key victories, and she hasn’t had any phenomenal games. Hopefully, all of that will change!!

That said, I am not convinced UConn is ready to beat a ranked opponent yet so…

NC 75
UConn 70

 

[cferraro04]

SEbluebood - I agree that it is still early to crown Ms. Bueckers as the best in the country...but, I did say she was arguably the best..meaning that we all know what she is capable of, we all know she is in the process of getting her sea legs back, and we all know that Geno is still managing her minutes. You are right that she currently doesn't have the stats overall stats. Saying she hasn't led the team to victory is a little misleading in that UConn has lost three games. And, it is also not true as she led the team to victory against Maryland. As far as saying that she hasn't had any phenomenal games...here is a list of four of her better games: NC State: 27 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists; Maryland: 24 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 blocks, and 6 steals; Minnesota: 12 points; 8 rebounds; 4 assists; UCLA: 31 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists.

After perusing WCBB leaders it is fair to say that Paige is in the running statistically.

Paige Bueckers - 19 points; 4.8 RBs; 4.0 Assists; (.491 FG; .455 3pt; .806 FT)
Caitlin Clark - 29.6 points; 6.7 RBs; 7.6 Assists; (.459 FG; .368 3pt; .779 FT)
Angel Reese 17.4 points; 10 RBs; (.475 FG; .000 3pt, .721 FT)
Aneesah Morrow; 18.2 points; 8.4 RBs; (.475 FG; .159 3pt; .859 FT)
Hailey Van Lith: 12.2 points; 2.0 RBs; 5.0 Assists; (.429 FG; .320 3pt; .727 FT)
Cameron Brink: 18.6 points; 11.4 RBs; 2 Assists; 3.3 blocks; (.598 FG; .417 3pt; .963 FT)
Mackenzie Holmes: 18.3 points; 6.4 RBs; 1.6 Assist; (.630 FG; .714 FT)
Elizabeth Kitley: 22.4 points; 11.3 RBs; 1.6 Assists: 2.4 blocks: (.569 FG; .909 FT)
Rickea Jackson: 22 points; 12 RBs; 3.0 Assists; (.472 FG; .875 FT)
Rori Harmon: 13.8 points; 5.3 RBs; 7.4 Assists; 3.2 steals; (.514 FG; .263 3pt; .633 FT)
Georgia Amore: 17.1 points; 2.9 RBs; 8.4 Assists: (.431 FG; .317 3pt; .917 FT)
Kamilla Cardoso: 14.4 points; 11.5 RBs; 3.3 Blocks; (.613 FG; .639 FG)
Kaitlyn Chen: 15 points; 3.1 RBs; 4.4 Assists: (.446 FG; .381 3pt; .750 FT)
Ayoka Lee: 18.1 points; 7.4 RBs; 2.0 Assists; (.632 FG; .744 FT)
Ta'niya Latson: 17.4 points; 4.7 RBs; 3/4 Assists; (.398 FG; .158 3pt; .862 FT)
Charisma Osborne: 14.1 points; 6.9 RBs; 4.7 Assists; 1.3 Steals; (.413 FG; .512 3pt; .882 FT)
Alissa Pili: 22.3 points; 5.5 RBs; 2.4 Assists: (.742 FG; .538 3pt; .800 FT)

 

[Zinethar]

I think this should be a hard fought relatively low scoring game with strong defense. I also think that the Ball State game showed progress in both defense and offense so I believe UConn wins this 77-63. Move of 14.

 

[Boreifs]

UConn will be very lucky if they win this game. NC has a lot of horses and was spectacular in the first half against SC.

 

[SEbluebood]

SEbluebood - I agree that it is still early to crown Ms. Bueckers as the best in the country...but, I did say she was arguably the best..meaning that we all know what she is capable of, we all know she is in the process of getting her sea legs back, and we all know that Geno is still managing her minutes. You are right that she currently doesn't have the stats overall stats. Saying she hasn't led the team to victory is a little misleading in that UConn has lost three games. And, it is also not true as she led the team to victory against Maryland. As far as saying that she hasn't had any phenomenal games...here is a list of four of her better games: NC State: 27 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists; Maryland: 24 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 blocks, and 6 steals; Minnesota: 12 points; 8 rebounds; 4 assists; UCLA: 31 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists.

After perusing WCBB leaders it is fair to say that Paige is in the running statistically.

Paige Bueckers - 19 points; 4.8 RBs; 4.0 Assists; (.491 FG; .455 3pt; .806 FT)
Caitlin Clark - 29.6 points; 6.7 RBs; 7.6 Assists; (.459 FG; .368 3pt; .779 FT)
Angel Reese 17.4 points; 10 RBs; (.475 FG; .000 3pt, .721 FT)
Aneesah Morrow; 18.2 points; 8.4 RBs; (.475 FG; .159 3pt; .859 FT)
Hailey Van Lith: 12.2 points; 2.0 RBs; 5.0 Assists; (.429 FG; .320 3pt; .727 FT)
Cameron Brink: 18.6 points; 11.4 RBs; 2 Assists; 3.3 blocks; (.598 FG; .417 3pt; .963 FT)
Mackenzie Holmes: 18.3 points; 6.4 RBs; 1.6 Assist; (.630 FG; .714 FT)
Elizabeth Kitley: 22.4 points; 11.3 RBs; 1.6 Assists: 2.4 blocks: (.569 FG; .909 FT)
Rickea Jackson: 22 points; 12 RBs; 3.0 Assists; (.472 FG; .875 FT)
Rori Harmon: 13.8 points; 5.3 RBs; 7.4 Assists; 3.2 steals; (.514 FG; .263 3pt; .633 FT)
Georgia Amore: 17.1 points; 2.9 RBs; 8.4 Assists: (.431 FG; .317 3pt; .917 FT)
Kamilla Cardoso: 14.4 points; 11.5 RBs; 3.3 Blocks; (.613 FG; .639 FG)
Kaitlyn Chen: 15 points; 3.1 RBs; 4.4 Assists: (.446 FG; .381 3pt; .750 FT)
Ayoka Lee: 18.1 points; 7.4 RBs; 2.0 Assists; (.632 FG; .744 FT)
Ta'niya Latson: 17.4 points; 4.7 RBs; 3/4 Assists; (.398 FG; .158 3pt; .862 FT)
Charisma Osborne: 14.1 points; 6.9 RBs; 4.7 Assists; 1.3 Steals; (.413 FG; .512 3pt; .882 FT)
Alissa Pili: 22.3 points; 5.5 RBs; 2.4 Assists: (.742 FG; .538 3pt; .800 FT)

Fair points! Kudos for your thorough research!! One clarification, I said she had not led them to any “key” victories. I should have been more specific. What I should have said was she hasn’t led them to any victories over top flight competition. ( I don’t consider Maryland top flight, but you can make the case that they were ranked at the time, although not highly). Hopefully , she can lead them over NC and Louisville, and we then we can always hope for a win over SC!! Finally, I would also add JuJu Watkins to your list. She is averaging 27 pts and 7 rebounds per game.

 

[cferraro04]

Fair points! Kudos for your thorough research!! One clarification, I said she had not led them to any “key” victories. I should have been more specific. What I should have said was she hasn’t led them to any victories over top flight competition. ( I don’t consider Maryland top flight, but you can make the case that they were ranked at the time, although not highly). Hopefully , she can lead them over NC and Louisville, and we then we can always hope for a win over SC!! Finally, I would also add JuJu Watkins to your list. She is averaging 27 pts and 7 rebounds per game.

Wow! How did I miss Ju Ju Watkins definitely deserves to be on the list:

Ju Ju Watkins: 27.5 points; 7.6 RBs; 3.4 Assists; 2.3 Steals; (.493 FG; .444 3pt; .750 FT)

 

[Rowdy831]

COMMENTS

NORTH CAROLINA

We can neither let North Carolina's 6-3 record nor North Carolina's opponent's low RPI ratings lull us into complacency. While it is true that compared to UConn's #7 RPI and its #2 SOS, University of North Carolina's #78 RPI and its #15 SOSS it would appear that UConn is better prepared... other factors indicate that we can not take North Carolina lightly. They recently lost to the number one team in the country, South Carolina only by 7 points. North Carolina led at the half. They held South Carolina to only 65 points which was 35 points below their average, and they outrebounded South Carolina 45 to 39 with 15 of those being offensive rebounds, which allowed NC to control more clock. North Carolina's two seniors Deja Kelly and Alyssa Utsby are as good a 1-2 combination as you can expect to see in WCBB. You cannot leave Lexi Donarski open beyond the arc...she will make you pay. North Carolina has three players on watch lists: Deja Kelly is on the watch list for point guard of the year; Alyssa Utsby is on the Cheryl Miller Award Watch List and, Maria Gakdeng is on the Lisa Leslie Award Watch List. To put it bluntly...North Carolina despite the level of competition it has faced thus far is a good team...especially defensively...they have Maria Gakdeng a rim protector, and an elite defender in Lexi Donarski who can also shoot the three. North Carolina has the pieces with Gakdeng on the inside to disrupt post play, and experienced guards on the perimeter to pose a problem for UCONN. North Carolina has struggled to make shots...but, I always find it ironic how teams who struggle from three suddenly find the basket when they play UConn. Also ironic is that despite NC's problems from three-point Maria Gakdeng has been very efficient under the basket hitting 40 of 56 for .714. One area of concern for North Carolina is outside of South Carolina, the level of competition hasn't been that tough: Vermont - RPI - 89, SOS - 280; Hampton - RPI - 256, SOS - 136; Elon - RPI - 200, SOS - 200; Davison - RPI - 94, SOS - 113; South Carolina - RPI - 11, SOS - 3; Kansas State - RPI - 97, SOS - 47; Florida Gulf Coast - RPI - 119, SOS - 273; UNC Greensboro - RPI - 57, SOS - 299.

UCONN

Nika Muhl's homecoming game with Ball State presented our fans with a lot of positives but it also showed some vulnerabilities as well. Paige was extremely efficient in 21 minutes of play with 15 points; 2 for 3 from three-point; 5/7 in field goals and 3 for 4 from the foul line. She added 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals to her stat line. Aaliyah Edwards continued to add to her solid play of late by contributing a double-double (18 and 12). Aubrey finally began to look more like herself flashing to the basket and using her quickness and athleticism to score 14 points, 4 rebounds, and one steal in 16 minutes of play. Our freshmen did well with Ashlynn Shade leading the way with 17 points and only one turnover. Where we are vulnerable is that we can not sustain the intensity on either the defensive or the offensive end. This was no more evident than in the spectacular first-quarter effort that produced 37 points but our production dropped to a 20-point average per quarter for the rest of the game. Also, we allowed too many open looks for Ball State on the perimeter where they hit 9 for 20 from three. While our freshmen were a breath of fresh air...let's keep in mind that Geno said in the after-game show that he tries to keep things simple for the Freshmen...telling them to just do what they did in high school. This is why they are often out of position and why they sometimes miss defensive assignments. Finally, we allowed Ball State to force 17 turnovers, a concerning statistic since North Carolina forces an average of 19 TOs per game. Let's hope that UConn is able to build upon its recent successes and continue to improve as the next few games are going to be tough. To UConn's credit and I am not sure how much it helps them in this game UConn has played tougher competition: Maryland - RPI - 5, SOS 7; UCLA - RPI - 12; SOS - 17; Texas - RPI - 14, SOS - 19; Kansas - RPI - 52, SOS - 42; Minnesota - RPI - 67, SOS - 81; Ball State - RPI - 111, SOS - 53; Dayton - RPI - 118, SOS - 270

MATCH-UPS ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards - Sr, 6'3" vs Maria Gakdeng - Jr - 6'3" - Maria averages 10.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and gets 1.3 blocks per game. Aaliyah averages 15.8 points and 7.3 rebounds. Both players are strong and fairly mobile players...Aaliyah has played tougher competition. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aubrey Griffin - Gr, 6'1" vs Alyssa Ustby - Sr, 6'1" - Alyssa Ustby is a stat stuffer she averages 11 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2 steals and 1 block per game. More of a mid-range jumper kind of player as she does not pose much of a threat from three. She is on Cheryl Millers Watch List. Alyssa is the perfect opponent for the athletic Aubrey Griffin who a stat-stuffer herself. While Aubrey's stats are quite equal to Alyssa's I believe she is emerging from a slump and I expect her to build upon her last performance. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Paige Bueckers - R. Jr, 6'0" vs Lexi Donarsky - Gr, 6'0" - This is an interesting match-up as Lexi will present defensive difficulties for Paige who is arguably the best player in the country. Lexi can and will hit threes if she is left open. She is one of North Carolina's go to players. Paige is undoubtedly UConn's go to player, her minutes have been managed by Geno...but, I expect that to be coming to an end shortly... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl - Sr, 5'11" vs Deja Kelly - Sr, 5'8" - Again Nika will be matched with the opposing team's most productive player...Deja averages 16 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.0 steals. Deja is another player who has an excellent mid-range jumper and is strong off the dribble. Outside of scoring Nika is pretty evenly matched with Deja. Nika's strong defense may equalize things in the scoring department. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Ashlynn Shade - Fr, 5'10" vs Indra Nivar - So, 5'10" - Someone has to start at this position...it could be KK, it could be Qadence or it could be Ice Brady, however, I believe that Ashlynn earned this start with her 17 point performance against Ball State. Additionally, Ashlynn is a pretty good defender and so far she has not been careless with the basketball averaging less than one turnover per game. Indya Nivar averages 6.6 points, 4.9 rebounds and she contributes 1 assists and 1 steal per game. While I like Ashlynn for the start I am not sure she will be able negate Indra's contributions. ADVANTAGE - North Carolina.

BENCH

UConn's bench has gotten shorter with the injuries...with only 3 players getting significant minutes (KK, Samuels and Ice) they bring 17 points and 7 rebounds off the bench while North Carolina brings 17 points and 12 rebounds of the bench. I believe the UConn bench will be more impactful than North Carolina...so I am going to go with: SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES

It will be a home game for UConn albeit Mohegan Sun...making it somewhat a neutral court with the fan base being a home crowd...UConn coming off a much needed win as is North Carolina. Both teams are struggling to find their identities. UConn has played a much tougher schedule at this point in the season. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

North Carolina has an excellent coaching staff...Banghart was honored as one of America's 50 best leaders by Fortune Magazine in 2015. She is 330 - 146 overall...formerly coached at Dartmouth. She took over the Princeton program and coached there for a dozen years. She redefined that program and was responsible for getting Princeton its highest NCAA seeding in the tournament...seeded number 8. She also got Princeton its only at-large bid and its highest AP ranking of 13. As accomplished as she is it is hard to compare to Geno's 11 NCAA championships. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

This one will be a defensive battle and will probably be low scoring.

UCONN - 71
NORTH CAROLINA - 65

MOV - 6

I think UConn has their offside defense sag to far into the lane it can't back to defend the 3 so teams are really getting a lot of uncontested shots. My observations on offense is they run their action so far from the basket they aren't putting any pressure on the opponents defense until they get deep into the shot clock consequently they aren't getting the open looks.

 

[HopJim]

Curious comment: "Outside of scoring, Nika is pretty evenly matched with Deja" Deja Kelly so far has been one of the more consistent scorers in the country. Would think offense would be at least 50% of the rating.

 

[Cuango]

I’m afraid people are (once again) overestimating us and underestimating North Carolina! Obviously, we can win this game but it will require our best effort to date! Banghart is an elite coach and you can bet she will have her team ready! I don’t know how many here saw their game against South Carolina but believe me, they are a tough and disciplined team that will play hard for the entire 40 minutes.
We have to play relentless defense and get another inspired performance from at least one of our freshmen (offense & defense) as well as solid play from our seniors. This would be a good time for a vintage performance from Paige! I see Aubrey as being key to this game. If she can have 15-20 points and play solid D on Ustby, I see us winning a close game with Paige
taking charge in the final minutes.

UConn- 73
N Car- 68

 

[HuskyNan]

Fair points! Kudos for your thorough research!! One clarification, I said she had not led them to any “key” victories. I should have been more specific. What I should have said was she hasn’t led them to any victories over top flight competition. ( I don’t consider Maryland top flight, but you can make the case that they were ranked at the time, although not highly). Hopefully , she can lead them over NC and Louisville, and we then we can always hope for a win over SC!! Finally, I would also add JuJu Watkins to your list. She is averaging 27 pts and 7 rebounds per game.

Can we please stick to UConn basketball on this board?

 

[HuskyNan]

 

[willtalk]

With the recent level of parity in womens college basketball has led to parody in womans college basketball. Teams that are relatively close in ability are capable of knocking each other off on any given night. Since in basketball one can not really predict if someone or some team will have a bad or good shooting night it will depend on who is hot and who is not.

 

[Blond D.]

Curious comment: "Outside of scoring, Nika is pretty evenly matched with Deja" Deja Kelly so far has been one of the more consistent scorers in the country. Would think offense would be at least 50% of the rating.

I think Nika will even that out with her defense IF shes the one guarding Deja

 

[cferraro04]

SEblueblood: That said, I am not convinced UConn is ready to beat a ranked opponent yet so…

If not now, then when?

 

[Heels123]

Hey guys,

I’ll chime in some and offer a little analysis on our side. Like UCONN, we have yet to have our full roster in any game the entire year. Most believe that’s most of our offensive struggles with a lot of funky rotations throughout the year.

1) Ciera Toomey and Laila Hull are RS for the year. Toomey, one of the Top ‘23s, supposedly chose us over y’all
2) Teonni Key has been listed as day-to-day since the year started. She is the best player on the team when healthy. Was the best player on the court for both the scrimmages this year and 2 years ago.
3) guards Paulina Paris and Kayla McPherson were out vs UNCG- bot are questionable for tomorrow and both typically play big minutes
4) back-up big Anya Poole has missed multiple games as well. She typically plays at least 20mpg

SOS and RPI are kind of useless tools at this point in the year with fewer than 10 games played. A solid NC schedule feature SC, Kansas state and likely NCAAT teams in Davidson (beat Duke) and FGCU. With UCONN and Oklahoma left ain’t a horrible schedule.

-2 of the last 3 games have featured >50% from the floor. The only 2 out of 9. We played pretty good basketball (offensively) for about a half vs SC.

-Gakdeng is a Top 5 big in the country. Both offensively and defensively. She was limited to 8 minutes vs Kansas State due to health issues.

-Should be a good game tomorrow in an essential road environment. Go Heels!

 

[HuskyNan]

Hey guys,

I’ll chime in some and offer a little analysis on our side. Like UCONN, we have yet to have our full roster in any game the entire year. Most believe that’s most of our offensive struggles with a lot of funky rotations throughout the year.

1) Ciera Toomey and Laila Hull are RS for the year. Toomey, one of the Top ‘23s, supposedly chose us over y’all
2) Teonni Key has been listed as day-to-day since the year started. She is the best player on the team when healthy. Was the best player on the court for both the scrimmages this year and 2 years ago.
3) guards Paulina Paris and Kayla McPherson were out vs UNCG- bot are questionable for tomorrow and both typically play big minutes
4) back-up big Anya Poole has missed multiple games as well. She typically plays at least 20mpg

SOS and RPI are kind of useless tools at this point in the year with fewer than 10 games played. A solid NC schedule feature SC, Kansas state and likely NCAAT teams in Davidson (beat Duke) and FGCU. With UCONN and Oklahoma left ain’t a horrible schedule.

-2 of the last 3 games have featured >50% from the floor. The only 2 out of 9. We played pretty good basketball (offensively) for about a half vs SC.

-Gakdeng is a Top 5 big in the country. Both offensively and defensively. She was limited to 8 minutes vs Kansas State due to health issues.

-Should be a good game tomorrow in an essential road environment. Go Heels!

Welcome! And thanks for the input

 

[cferraro04]

@Heels123 : Wow! The injury bug has not been kind to either of our teams...I said in the above analysis that both teams were looking for their identities...It is very difficult to find a rhythm when the starting line-ups are subject to change from game to game. It is even more difficult when injuries happen to players of consequence. In this case, both teams have players on the IR list that could have impacted the game. It is also fortunate that both teams can field talented teams and that each team has a viable chance to win tomorrow's contest. I am looking forward to seeing this contest because for two reasons...the timing of the game, just before we enter league play, and because it will give us real usable data on where the team is and where it needs to go. I would say good luck for tomorrow's game but you and I both know that we want the good fortune to stay with our teams...after all isn't that what fanhood is all about?

 

[Zarathustra]

Hey guys,

I’ll chime in some and offer a little analysis on our side. Like UCONN, we have yet to have our full roster in any game the entire year. Most believe that’s most of our offensive struggles with a lot of funky rotations throughout the year.

1) Ciera Toomey and Laila Hull are RS for the year. Toomey, one of the Top ‘23s, supposedly chose us over y’all
2) Teonni Key has been listed as day-to-day since the year started. She is the best player on the team when healthy. Was the best player on the court for both the scrimmages this year and 2 years ago.
3) guards Paulina Paris and Kayla McPherson were out vs UNCG- bot are questionable for tomorrow and both typically play big minutes
4) back-up big Anya Poole has missed multiple games as well. She typically plays at least 20mpg

SOS and RPI are kind of useless tools at this point in the year with fewer than 10 games played. A solid NC schedule feature SC, Kansas state and likely NCAAT teams in Davidson (beat Duke) and FGCU. With UCONN and Oklahoma left ain’t a horrible schedule.

-2 of the last 3 games have featured >50% from the floor. The only 2 out of 9. We played pretty good basketball (offensively) for about a half vs SC.

-Gakdeng is a Top 5 big in the country. Both offensively and defensively. She was limited to 8 minutes vs Kansas State due to health issues.

-Should be a good game tomorrow in an essential road environment. Go Heels!

Thoughtful, balanced comments from a loyal Tarheel! GO HUSKIES!

 

[FanInNC]

COMMENTS

NORTH CAROLINA

We can neither let North Carolina's 6-3 record nor North Carolina's opponent's low RPI ratings lull us into complacency. While it is true that compared to UConn's #7 RPI and its #2 SOS, University of North Carolina's #78 RPI and its #15 SOSS it would appear that UConn is better prepared... other factors indicate that we can not take North Carolina lightly. They recently lost to the number one team in the country, South Carolina only by 7 points. North Carolina led at the half. They held South Carolina to only 65 points which was 35 points below their average, and they outrebounded South Carolina 45 to 39 with 15 of those being offensive rebounds, which allowed NC to control more clock. North Carolina's two seniors Deja Kelly and Alyssa Utsby are as good a 1-2 combination as you can expect to see in WCBB. You cannot leave Lexi Donarski open beyond the arc...she will make you pay. North Carolina has three players on watch lists: Deja Kelly is on the watch list for point guard of the year; Alyssa Utsby is on the Cheryl Miller Award Watch List and, Maria Gakdeng is on the Lisa Leslie Award Watch List. To put it bluntly...North Carolina despite the level of competition it has faced thus far is a good team...especially defensively...they have Maria Gakdeng a rim protector, and an elite defender in Lexi Donarski who can also shoot the three. North Carolina has the pieces with Gakdeng on the inside to disrupt post play, and experienced guards on the perimeter to pose a problem for UCONN. North Carolina has struggled to make shots...but, I always find it ironic how teams who struggle from three suddenly find the basket when they play UConn. Also ironic is that despite NC's problems from three-point Maria Gakdeng has been very efficient under the basket hitting 40 of 56 for .714. One area of concern for North Carolina is outside of South Carolina, the level of competition hasn't been that tough: Vermont - RPI - 89, SOS - 280; Hampton - RPI - 256, SOS - 136; Elon - RPI - 200, SOS - 200; Davison - RPI - 94, SOS - 113; South Carolina - RPI - 11, SOS - 3; Kansas State - RPI - 97, SOS - 47; Florida Gulf Coast - RPI - 119, SOS - 273; UNC Greensboro - RPI - 57, SOS - 299.

UCONN

Nika Muhl's homecoming game with Ball State presented our fans with a lot of positives but it also showed some vulnerabilities as well. Paige was extremely efficient in 21 minutes of play with 15 points; 2 for 3 from three-point; 5/7 in field goals and 3 for 4 from the foul line. She added 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals to her stat line. Aaliyah Edwards continued to add to her solid play of late by contributing a double-double (18 and 12). Aubrey finally began to look more like herself flashing to the basket and using her quickness and athleticism to score 14 points, 4 rebounds, and one steal in 16 minutes of play. Our freshmen did well with Ashlynn Shade leading the way with 17 points and only one turnover. Where we are vulnerable is that we can not sustain the intensity on either the defensive or the offensive end. This was no more evident than in the spectacular first-quarter effort that produced 37 points but our production dropped to a 20-point average per quarter for the rest of the game. Also, we allowed too many open looks for Ball State on the perimeter where they hit 9 for 20 from three. While our freshmen were a breath of fresh air...let's keep in mind that Geno said in the after-game show that he tries to keep things simple for the Freshmen...telling them to just do what they did in high school. This is why they are often out of position and why they sometimes miss defensive assignments. Finally, we allowed Ball State to force 17 turnovers, a concerning statistic since North Carolina forces an average of 19 TOs per game. Let's hope that UConn is able to build upon its recent successes and continue to improve as the next few games are going to be tough. To UConn's credit and I am not sure how much it helps them in this game UConn has played tougher competition: Maryland - RPI - 5, SOS 7; UCLA - RPI - 12; SOS - 17; Texas - RPI - 14, SOS - 19; Kansas - RPI - 52, SOS - 42; Minnesota - RPI - 67, SOS - 81; Ball State - RPI - 111, SOS - 53; Dayton - RPI - 118, SOS - 270

MATCH-UPS ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards - Sr, 6'3" vs Maria Gakdeng - Jr - 6'3" - Maria averages 10.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and gets 1.3 blocks per game. Aaliyah averages 15.8 points and 7.3 rebounds. Both players are strong and fairly mobile players...Aaliyah has played tougher competition. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aubrey Griffin - Gr, 6'1" vs Alyssa Ustby - Sr, 6'1" - Alyssa Ustby is a stat stuffer she averages 11 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2 steals and 1 block per game. More of a mid-range jumper kind of player as she does not pose much of a threat from three. She is on Cheryl Millers Watch List. Alyssa is the perfect opponent for the athletic Aubrey Griffin who a stat-stuffer herself. While Aubrey's stats are quite equal to Alyssa's I believe she is emerging from a slump and I expect her to build upon her last performance. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Paige Bueckers - R. Jr, 6'0" vs Lexi Donarsky - Gr, 6'0" - This is an interesting match-up as Lexi will present defensive difficulties for Paige who is arguably the best player in the country. Lexi can and will hit threes if she is left open. She is one of North Carolina's go to players. Paige is undoubtedly UConn's go to player, her minutes have been managed by Geno...but, I expect that to be coming to an end shortly... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl - Sr, 5'11" vs Deja Kelly - Sr, 5'8" - Again Nika will be matched with the opposing team's most productive player...Deja averages 16 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.0 steals. Deja is another player who has an excellent mid-range jumper and is strong off the dribble. Outside of scoring Nika is pretty evenly matched with Deja. Nika's strong defense may equalize things in the scoring department. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Ashlynn Shade - Fr, 5'10" vs Indra Nivar - So, 5'10" - Someone has to start at this position...it could be KK, it could be Qadence or it could be Ice Brady, however, I believe that Ashlynn earned this start with her 17 point performance against Ball State. Additionally, Ashlynn is a pretty good defender and so far she has not been careless with the basketball averaging less than one turnover per game. Indya Nivar averages 6.6 points, 4.9 rebounds and she contributes 1 assists and 1 steal per game. While I like Ashlynn for the start I am not sure she will be able negate Indra's contributions. ADVANTAGE - North Carolina.

BENCH

UConn's bench has gotten shorter with the injuries...with only 3 players getting significant minutes (KK, Samuels and Ice) they bring 17 points and 7 rebounds off the bench while North Carolina brings 17 points and 12 rebounds of the bench. I believe the UConn bench will be more impactful than North Carolina...so I am going to go with: SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES

It will be a home game for UConn albeit Mohegan Sun...making it somewhat a neutral court with the fan base being a home crowd...UConn coming off a much needed win as is North Carolina. Both teams are struggling to find their identities. UConn has played a much tougher schedule at this point in the season. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

North Carolina has an excellent coaching staff...Banghart was honored as one of America's 50 best leaders by Fortune Magazine in 2015. She is 330 - 146 overall...formerly coached at Dartmouth. She took over the Princeton program and coached there for a dozen years. She redefined that program and was responsible for getting Princeton its highest NCAA seeding in the tournament...seeded number 8. She also got Princeton its only at-large bid and its highest AP ranking of 13. As accomplished as she is it is hard to compare to Geno's 11 NCAA championships. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

This one will be a defensive battle and will probably be low scoring.

UCONN - 71
NORTH CAROLINA - 65

MOV - 6

Honestly - I think I’d give a slight edge to Utsby and Kelly in those particular player comparisons. Utsby and Kelly are the engine of UNC. Otherwise pretty fair assessment I think.

It’s also hard making direct player comparisons as it often doesn’t work out that way on the court with rotations and match ups.

I’m fascinated to see how UConn evolves with everyone adjusting to new roles with injuries. As a UNC-CH hater I hope the Huskies put it all together today and lay the smack down! I anticipate a pretty even game but the home court advantage should push the Huskies over the top.

UConn 100
UNC-CH 11

 

[SEbluebood]

SEblueblood: That said, I am not convinced UConn is ready to beat a ranked opponent yet so…

If not now, then when?

It may not be a “when” question, could be an if question!! I guess that’s what we are all waiting to see!!