Analysis and Comments - Game 9 - UConn vs North Carolina

[Bone Dog]

I'm definitely keeping my fingers crossed for this game. Can Paige put the team on her shoulders? I think it depends on whether Ashlynn and Qadence have good shooting games. I know Ashlynn and KK can defend well no matter what else happens. If they come out hot -- Qadence from 3 and Ashlynn from the midrange -- then it's really just Paige vs Lexi, and I think Paige can win that battle. If Paulina Paris can play she might make a difference here, since she could conceivably guard Paige, too. I don't see anyone else being able to stay with her one-on-one, and if UNC can't double-team Paige, I think she will dominate.

Side note: Paige played Lexi once in HS. I think you can still find the game on YouTube. They are quite similar players. Paige is tougher.

I suspect Geno will play Aubrey on Utsby and we'll see who is stronger in that matchup. It's a close call. Qadence will not be able to guard her. Aaliyah vs Gakdeng should be interesting, though I expect Aaliyah to win that one, especially if whoever defends Kelly sagging off her on the perimeter. But these will all be close struggles, which is why I think the result mainly depends on Paige outplaying Lexi, and this in turn depends on Ashlynn and Qadence coming out hot.

Interestingly, I don't think Kelly will be a central factor. If I'm wrong about this, my analysis will be totally off.

 

[Jokerman619]

Here is the latest RPI and SOS

 

[cferraro04]

It may not be a “when” question, could be an if question!! I guess that’s what we are all waiting to see!!

I think we got our answer...thank God! I think this game will be looked at by the selection committee come March.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

Curious comment: "Outside of scoring, Nika is pretty evenly matched with Deja" Deja Kelly so far has been one of the more consistent scorers in the country. Would think offense would be at least 50% of the rating.

I’ve been one of Nika’s biggest critics on this board, because of her scoring or lack of it, however in today’s UNC game I noticed an offensive spark from Nika. She hit four three’s, and I hope it’s the start of something.

 

[cferraro04]

How did I fair today...let's take a look...

1. Aaliyah Edwards vs Maria Gakdeng

Maria Gaddeng - 14 points; 12 rebounds; 3 assists; 2 blocks
Aaliyah Edwards - 16 points; 11 rebounds; 2 assists; 1 block

The analysis called this one Advantage - UCONN...in actuality, it was Advantage - Even...(with a slight edge to North Carolina).

2. Aubrey Griffin vs Alyssa Utsby

Alyssa Utsby - 10 points; 7 rebounds; 3 assists; 3 steals
Ashlynn Shade - 8 points; 4 rebounds; 2 assists; 0 steals
Aubrey Griffin - 5 points; 8 rebounds; 4 assists; 2 steals

The analysis missed the call on this one by calling it EVEN because instead of Aubrey starting the game Geno went with Ashlynn Shade...it appears that regardless of who started against Utsby she has the ADVANTAGE against Ashlynn in points, rebounds and steals... Against Aubrey, it was closer with Utsby eeking out the ADVANTAGE in points and steals while Aubrey eeked out the ADVANTAGE in rebounds and assists

3. Nika Muhl vs Deja Kelly

Deja Kelly - 11 points; 1 rebound; 0 Threes; 3 assists; 3 steals; 1 Block; 6 TOs
Nika Muhl - 12 points; 0 rebounds; 4 Threes; 6 assists; 2 steals; 0 Blocks; 6 TOs

The analysis called this one EVEN and I see no reason to disagree with that call post-game.

4. Paige Bueckers vs Lexi Donarski

Lexi Donarski - 12 points; 3 rebounds; 1 assists; 1 steal
Paige Bueckers - 26 points; 2 rebounds; 1 assists; 3 steals; 4 blocks

The analysis had this one ADVANTAGE - UCONN and wow!...did the analysis get this one right!

5. KK Arnold vs Indra Nivar (because Aubrey did not start and Ashlynn got her assignment...KK was moved over to match up with Indra)

Indra Nivar - 10 points; 8 rebounds; 1 assist; 1 steal; 5 TOs
KK Arnold - 7 points; 5 rebounds; 5 assists; 2 steals; 4 TOs

The analysis had this one EVEN and based on player impact on the game...KK's 5 assists and 7 points offensively impacted the game more positively than Indra. Defensively, KK had one steal more and one TO less than Indra but Indra's e extra rebounds canceled out that advantage so...as far as impact on the game...the analysis was correct to call this one EVEN.

Bench

North Carolina - 7 points; 2 rebounds; 4 assists; 0 blocks; 0 steals
UConn - 7 points; 9 rebounds; 4 assists; 1 block; 2 steals

The analysis had a slight ADVANTAGE - UCONN...and thanks to Aubrey Griffin that was the right call - EVEN

INTANGIBLES

Yeah, it is always great to play at home...correct call - ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

I think Geno, et al...got this one right - ADVANTAGE - UCONN